On the back of an unexpected move by the US Fed to hike discount rate, global
markets pared their weekly gains to close on a cautious note during the week
ended.
The Sensex gained 39 points last week, to end at 16,191 and the Nifty gained 18
points to close at 4,844. Market breadth continued to be weak. Renewed selling
from FIIs also dampened the spirits of bulls. Concerns that the government may
rollback some of stimulus packages to bridge fiscal deficit also weighed heavily
on the minds of market players.
Casting their shadow on the markets in the coming week are domestic market
factors like Economic Survey, F&O settlement, Railway Budget and Union Budget.
Watch out for road maps for the rollout of goods service tax (GST) and the new
tax code.
However, low expectations from the Budget may see markets rally if the finance
minister gives some positive surprises. Expect the markets to be highly choppy
and volatile. Key levels to watch on Nifty are 4,950 on the upside and 4,700 on
the downside for spotting trend `change'.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 15,650 and 16,580 for
the Sensex and 4,675 and 5,080 for the Nifty.
If the Budget acts as a `stimulant', expect resistance to the indices on upside
at 16,360 and 16,550 and 4,940 and 5,060, say observers.
In the event of disappointment, markets may slide below recent lows. Brace up
for big roller coaster ride as the Budget season unfolds.
Futures & Options
Robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment even as the open interest
exceeded Rs 1,20,000 crore. Nifty OI PCR fell to 1.05 level indicating build up
of shorts ahead of the Budget week.
Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the region of 4,900 and 4,950 and
find a good support in the region of 4,700 and 4,750. With the Economic Survey
and F&O settlement on the same day and the Union Budget lined up for a day after
the settlement, punters would do well to play `safe' by adopting strangle or
straddle strategy on Nifty to take advantage of directional breakout in the
markets. Addition of new stocks to the F&O list was a pleasant surprise.
Announcement of new fertiliser policy failed to enthuse the punters of
fertiliser stocks. However, industry experts advise buying at lower levels. Risk
aversion and fears of rate hike by RBI triggered fresh wave of selling in realty
counters.
Despite negative concerns over Bharti-Zain deal, analysts say that the move will
make Bharti a true global player warranting a better valuation. Contrarians can
buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 400.
Markets expect some indications on fuel price policy in the Budget. Buy oil
marketing majors IOC, BPCL and HPCL. Rebound in cement and sugar stocks likely
in near term. Many side counters like GVK Power, Aban, HCC, Voltas, Chambal,
Lanco Infra and others have witnessed short build-up in anticipation of
`correction' in markets after budget.
Sharp short covering in select counters not ruled out. Gains indicated in
Educomp, Financial Technologies, Ranbaxy and Cairn. There will be corrections
and crashes in the markets, but markets recover and reward investors.
Stock scan
Swiss Glasscoat Equipments is engaged in the manufacture of glass-lined
equipment such as reactors, process tankers that find use in diverse industries
like dyes, pigments, pharmaceuticals, food processing and chemicals. Turnaround
performance and prospects of takeover by a bigger player like GMM Pfaudler from
the industry triggered interest in the counter. Buy for a speculative target of
Rs 65.
Pix Transmissions is a manufacturer of industrial and automotive belts, hoses,
hose assemblies and end fittings used in power and fluid transmission business.
Recent commissioning of a fully-automated mixing plant and rigid mandrel hose
plant has reportedly improved operating margins. Buy on declines for target
price of Rs 100 in the medium term.
Shakti Pumps is a producer of stainless steel submer-sible pumps, energy saving
submersible motors and booster pumps. The company has set up a new plant at a
special economic zone at Pithampur to increase its exports. Accumulate the stock
during the correction for a target price of Rs 250.
Inclusion of Fortis Healthcare stock for the trading in futures and options
clearly indicates the heightened interest in hospital stocks.
With a very few listed counters in this segment, the interest of fund managers
may get limited to stocks like Apollo Hospitals, Indraprastha Medical and
medical equipment stocks like Siemens Health.
Look out for more opportunities in this recession-proof sector for outperforming
gains.
C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.
Source : deccan.com
Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division
Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048
For Stock Advise + Ideas
sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966
Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
Showing posts with label Smart Inestor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Smart Inestor. Show all posts
Monday, February 22, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Market Khabar 8 Feb 2010
Markets ended in red for the third week in a row in the weekend following global worries on fiscal deficits of euro zone countries, continuous rise in food inflation and tepid response to NTPC FPO.
On the BSE, the Sensex shed 442 points to end below 16,000-level at 15,916 and the Nifty on the NSE closed 115 points lower at 4,767.
As expected market breadth continued to remain weak and jittery investors were seen cutting positions.
Sources suggest an aggressive policy action from the government to control inflation. The worst is over on inflation front.
Watch out for expectations over the Union Budget to spot likely beneficiary industries. Sources say stimulus packages will not be trimmed to a large extent and only minor tinkering is on cards. Weekend rebound in US markets from lower levels may trigger a relief rally from current levels.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 15,550 and 16,420 for the Sensex and 4,540 and 4,960 for the Nifty.
Experts do not expect the indices to breach the 200-day moving averages at 15,530 and 4,650 levels easily and expect a mild recovery rally from current levels. Avoid aggressive shorts at current levels. Initiate fresh positions if indices sustain above 16,300 and 4,840 levels on closing basis.
You cannot tell how expensive a stock is. A stock’s value is depends on its earnings — a Rs 100 stock can be cheap if the firm’s earnings prospects are high, while a Rs 10 stock can be expensive if earnings potential is dim.
Futures & Options
High intra-day volatility is back and becoming a way of life for derivatives traders.
Overall open interest has again crossed Rs 1 lakh crore mark to settle at Rs 1,09,000 crore on Friday. As expected Nifty holds top position with 66 per cent share of the total. Contrarians tip buying of Nifty4,900 call option for unexpected returns in pre-budget rally.
Jittery market players were seen unwinding positions in bank, auto, realty and metal stocks. Punters suggest buying in SAIL, Tata Steel, Unitech, DLF and Nalco for relief rally gains. Among the stock futures looking good in an otherwise weak market are Asian Paints, Tata Power, Opto Circuits, Triveni, Essar Oil, Cummins, Mphasis and Petronet.
Buy oil marketing companies — IOC, BPCL and MRPL — for surprising returns. Side counters such as HCC, Punj Lloyd, JP Hydro and CESC are witnessing accumulation from savvy players.
Buy HCC for a target price of Rs 150 in the settlement. For the pre-budget trading, punters expect action in fertiliser, capital goods and power stocks. Buy Tata Power, Reliance Power and CESC at current levels.
Fallout from the luke warm response to the FPO of NTPC likely to be short lived. Buy strong PSU counters in the current weakness. Punters tip Engineers India, Power Finance and REC for short term.
Investors need to have realistic expectations. When expectations are too high, it results in overtrading underfinanced positions and very high levels of greed and fear, which makes objective decision-making impossible.
Stock scan
Vishnu Chemicals has posted good turnaround results. For the last nine months, the company has clocked net profit of Rs 4.18 crore in comparison to a loss of Rs 5.85 crore in the previous fiscal. Vishnu Chemicals is a world class manufacturer of chrome chemicals and animal feed ingredients and has recently set up a new state of the art manufacturing and R&D facility at Visakhapatnam. Sources indicate that the production of some peptides has also started and the company has reportedly tied up some CRAMS deals also. High promoter equity at 75 per cent reflects the confidence of the promoters. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 150.
Auto ancillary Subros continued its good performance on the back of reviving demand from its key clients — Maruti and Tata Motors. Volume and value led growth clearly reflect that cool times are back for the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 100.
AP Paper is reaping the benefits of its recently concluded expansion. Bettering the industry margins, the company has reported an excellent nine month performance. Stay invested in the counter for a target price of Rs 150.
Infoedge is a leading prov-ider of online recruitment (naukri.com), matrimonial (Jeevansaathi.com), real estate (99acres.com) and related services in India. The company is aggressively expanding into education, professional networking and other related segments. Buy the company’s stock at the current levels for a target price of Rs 1,300 in the next couple of months.
C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.
Source : deccan.com
Bought to you by
Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division
Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048
For Stock Advise + Ideas
sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966
Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
Monday, January 25, 2010
BSE NSE Outlook for 25 Jan 2010
Spooked by disappointing corporate earnings and fall in US markets, markets posted their steepest weekly fall since October 2009. On the BSE, the Sensex dropped 695 points to end the week at 16,860 and the Nifty on the NSE shed 216 points to close at 5,036. Volumes in both cash and derivatives segments hit record levels during the week reflecting the ‘run’ to cut positions. Market breadth turned extremely weak with sentiment turning negative on the reports of aggressive selling from FIIs. Market players attribute weak support from domestic financial institutions to their plans to subscribe to the forthcoming PSU IPOs. With earnings season coming to close in next week, the markets will focus on the forthcoming Union Budget. The overall performance of Indian companies on the third quarter earnings has been better-than-expected and re-rating of earnings is overdue, analysts feel. Global markets are worried about President Barack Obama’s bank plan and China’s lending curbs. Markets are likely to be highly volatile next week on the account of F&O settlement, RBI credit policy and outcome of US Fed meet. Protect profits with trailing stops. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 16,500-17,280 for the Sensex and 4,830-5,180 for the Nifty. Friday’s lows 16,608 and 4,955 are key supports for the indices, a breach of which can take them to 16,280 and 4,830 points. Futures & Options With markets moving out of their recent trading range, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Overall open interest increased by 12 per cent to over Rs 1,25,000 crore. Option activity-call writing at 5,000-level indicates that for settlement closing Nifty may not be able to cross 5,100-level unless something dramatic happens. Initiate fresh positions only if Nifty futures close above 5,070. Open interest in stock futures shot up by eight per cent reflecting bull-run in select stocks. Among the stock futures that witnessed short build-up are ONGC, Unitech, L&T, Tata Steel, HDFC, Punj, IVRCL, PNB and GAIL. Ahead of RBI policy meet, realty stocks turned weak on persistent selling. Avoid fresh shorts at current levels. Start accumulation for medium term. Spooked by L&T’s performance, capital goods counters fell. But the present correction is likely to be short lived, say industry insiders. The performance of Punj Lloyd indicates that it is focusing on bottom line. Buy for unexpected sharp gains. Metal counters are likely to swing to the tunes of dollar movement Spurt in turnovers at the bourses spell good times for broking houses. Buy India Infoline at current levels for target price of Rs 160 in coming weeks. Mphasis and HCL Tech look good for surprising gains. Buy Mphasis ahead of results for sharp returns. Check out on roll over positions to spot winners for Budget series. Buy during weakness. Buy only after reactions confirming higher support. Stock Scan JSW Energy will commission additional capacity of nearly 2,145 MW by December 2010. Merchant power sales now constitute 73 per cent. It has PPA for 55 per cent of the projects under implementation and stands to capitalise on higher merchant tariffs. Third quarter results reflect good times, buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 200 in next few months. Adani Power is setting up power generation projects with an aggregate capacity of 6,600 MW. The company’s Mundra Power Project is scheduled to be operational by February 2010. Auto boom has benefited auto component manufacturers. Rico Auto is a leading player in the ferrous and aluminum castings space. It has presence in engine, transmission, braking and suspension parts. It is a leading supplier to companies like Hero Honda, Maruti and others. It has expanded its product portfolio with its recent ventures with foreign majors. Buy for a target price of Rs 40 in medium term. Autoline Industries has embarked on the inorganic growth path that could increase revenues by 30 per cent in the next two years. The company has strong presence in press metals and also makes components like brakes, clutches and pedals. It is a leading supplier to Tata Motors and other auto majors. RJ holds 10 per cent equity in the company. Buy at current levels for long term target of Rs 250. Motherson Sumi Systems is the largest wiring harness manufacturer and has recently acquired UK-based Visiocorp to gain leadership in rear view mirror segment. Gaining prestigious clients like BMW, GM, Ford, the company’s acquisition of Visiocorp is a likely game changer for the company. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 200. C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns. Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Indian Stock Market Weekly review 24 Dec 2009
Bulls have reason to celebrate as last minute shopping before Christmas has taken the Nifty to a new high this week. The Finance Minister's comments on GDP growth coincided with the gains. Positive discussions about divestment programmes in Cabinet meeting, better cues from global markets also added to the upsurge. Finally, both the BSE 30-share Sensex and Nifty added 3.8% each. The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,361 and low of 16,578 while NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5798 and low of 4,943. The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were NTPC (up 10.7%), Tata Motors (up 9.5%), Tata Steel (up 9.1%), Hindalco Inds (up 9%) and Reliance Infrastructure (up 6.7%). The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Cipla (down 2.5%), Hindustan Unilever (down 1.2%), Bharti Airtel (down 1%), Ranbaxy Labs (down 0.9%) and ACC (down 0.6%). The BSE IT Index (up 2.6%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Sasken Communication (up 11.1%), HCL Tech (up 4.7%), TCS (up 3.7%), Wipro (up 3.4%) and Mphasis (up 3%). The top losers were Oracle Financial (down 0.4%) and Financial Tech (down 0.2%). The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the Consumer Durables sector were Whirlpool (up 8.5%), Titan (up 7%), Samtel Color (up 4.5%), Videocon Industries (up 2.5%) and Blue Star (up 0.6%). The BSE Healthcare Index (down 0.1%): The top gainer in the Pharma space was Glenmark Pharma. The stock rose over 8.8% during the week. Glenmark Generics received a tentative approval from the USFDA for two drugs. The estimated market size of one of the drugs Pramipexole Dihydrochloride, the generic version of Boehringer Ingelheim's Mirapex tablets, is estimated at US$487mn. Sun Pharma surged over 5% during the week. The company’s attempts to acquire Taro Pharma received a major boost with the Israeli company’s second-largest minority shareholder, Templeton Asset Management, asking the shareholders not to support the existing management, to vote against their decisions and to demand audited financial statements Panacea Biotec (up 4.6%), Glaxosmithkline (up 4.1%) and Strides Arcolab (up 3.7%) were among the other notable gainers. The top losers in were Suven Life Science (down 4%), Natco Pharma (down 3.5%), Piramal Healthcare (down 3%), Cipla (down 2.5%) and Orchid Chem (down 1.9%). The BSE Banking Index (up 4%): The top gainers in the banking space were Yes Bank (up 7.5%), Axis Bank (up 4.8%), Canara Bank (up 4.4%) and OBC (up 4.2%). ICICI Bank surged 5% during the week. According to reports, the bank plans to raise up to Rs12bn via bonds. The BSE Auto Index (up 2%): The top gainers in the auto space were Tata Motors (up 9.5%), Hero Honda (up 4.3%), Eicher Motors (up 3.4%), Hindustan Motors (up 2%) and Swaraj Mazda (up 1.6%). Bajaj Auto was the top loser. The stock fell 1.4% during the week. The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 4.8%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Gujarat NRE Coke (up 15.8%), Great Offshore (up 13%), Essar Oil (up 4.9%) and HPCL (up 4%). Reliance Industries surged 4% during the week. The company made a gas discovery in one of its exploration blocks in the Krishna Godavari basin off the country's east coast. Great Offshore surged over 13% during the week. Bharati Shipyard concluded its open offer for an additional 20% shares in the company. Following the open offer, Bharati holds 43.17% in Great Offshore. The top losers in the oil & gas space were Hindustan Oil (down 1.1%) and ONGC (down 0.3%). The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 2.4%):The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Dredging Corp (up 8.5%), BEML (up 8.4%), HEG (up 8.3%), Praj Industries (up 7%) and Jyoti Structures (up 6.6%). The top losers in the Capital Goods space were Gammon India (down 2.7%), ELGI Equipments (down 2.4%), SKF India (down 2.3%), Alfa Laval India (down 0.8%) and Carborundum Universal (down 0.3%). The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Mangalam Cement (up 16.1%), Binani Indus (up 7.3%), Dalmia Cement (up 4.8%), India Cements (up 3.6%) and Prism Cement (up 3%) The top losers were Kakatiya Cement (down 2.2%), Madras Cements (down 1.9%), Birla Corp (down 1.6%), Ultratech Cement (down 1.6%) and JK Cements (down 1.1%). Shares of Ambuja Cement gained 2.7% during the week. According to report released by IIFL during the week stated, “We retain our positive view on Ambuja Cements (ACL) post our recent management visit. We expect ACL’s realisation to be the least negatively affected in the months ahead among the large cement players in India, thanks to the company’s better regional sales mix. ACL’s capacity expansion projects are nearing completion, so we expect volume growth to accelerate in CY10. Benefits from the company stopping clinker purchase from 2QCY10, higher captive power generation and improved volume growth will negate the negative impact of decline in realisation, in our view. At a PER of 11x, EV/EBIDTA of 6x and EV/tonne of US$124 on CY10ii estimates, ACL is trading at reasonable valuations, in our view. We retain ADD on the stock”. The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom were Gemini Comm (down 5.4%), Shyam Telecom (down 2.3%), WWIL (down 2.3%) and Bharti Airtel (down 1%). The top gainers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (up 1.9%), Tata Comm (up 0.8%), MTNL (up 0.8%) and RCom (up 0.5%). The Realty Sector (up 4%): The top gainers in the real estate space were Akruti City (up 12.5%), Parsvnath (up 4.6%), HDIL (up 4.5%), Sobha Developers (up 4.2%) and Ansal Props (up 2.3%). The top losers were Anant Raj Indus (down 2.7%), Mahindra Lifespace (down 1.8%) and Unitech (down 0.7%). The Metals sector (up 6.8%): The top gainer in the metals sector was Adhunik Metaliks. The stock rose over 12% during the week. IDFC Project Equity Company will invest Rs2.5bn through its India Infrastructure Fund in a 540MW plant being built by Adhunik Power & Natural Resources in Jamshedpur. SAIL (up 11.3%), Tata Steel (up 9.1%), Tata Sponge (up 8.7%) and Tata Metaliks (up 8.6%) were among the other top gainers. The top losers were Monnet Ispat (down 2.2%) and Jindal Stainless (down 0.7%). Source : IIFL Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
Market Khabar 28 Dec 09
On the back of the Union finance minister's statement that the economy would
grow by eight per cent, the announcement of fast track divestment of some PSUs,
good advance tax numbers and positive global cues, markets bounced back during
the week ended.
On the BSE, the Sensex gained 641 points to close at 17,361 and the Nifty on the
NSE logged 191 points to end at 5,178. Market breadth was good indicating the
`return' of some retail buying interest. Renewed buying from foreign
institutional investors ahead of Christmas vacation surprised bears and
triggered short covering.
Barring major negative news, market performance in the week ahead is likely to
be similar to that of previous one due to only three trading sessions in the
week and F&O settlement.
Chartists predict a trading range of 17,090-17,800 for the Sensex and
5,080-5,360 for the Nifty. Short term supports for the indices are at 17,180 and
16,890 and 5,100 and 5,020. Expect indices to encounter resistance at 17,500 and
17,740 and 5,240 and 5,330. Hold longs if indices sustain above last week highs.
The week ahead will not only usher in a new year but also a new decade.
If present Nifty companies maintain 10.5 per cent CAGR of EPS through out the
next decade, Nifty — by 2020 — can either touch 17,600 in the bullish senario
with P/E of 28 or 6600 in the bearish case with P/E of 10.5. Nifty can touch
10,100 by 2020, even if present P/E of 18 is maintained in the next ten years.
The market is most dangerous when it looks best; it is most inviting when it
looks worst. Don't buy in a hurry-investigate each stock thoroughly before
buying.
Futures & Options
Despite the holidays, the derivative segment witnessed robust volumes during the
week ended. Overall open interest rose sharply by nine per cent to nearly Rs
1,30,000 crore reflecting the underlying bullish undertone.
Nifty OI PCR at 1.48 indicates that further bear squeeze is not ruled out and
that 5,050-5,100 band will be a good support zone.
Among the stock futures looking good for further gains in January series are
Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors from the autos; Hotel Leela and Indian Hotels from
hospitality; Ranbaxy, Biocon and Sun Pharma from pharma; BEML, BHEL, Crompton
Greaves and L&T from capital goods; HCC, IVRCL and Reliance Infra from
infrastructure; Tata Steel, Hindalco and SAIL from metals.
Side counters which are likely to attract heightened attention are EKC, Aditya
Birla Nuevo, Siemens, GTL, PTC and Opto Circuits. Cement stocks are witnessing
renewed buying. Buy ACC for a target price of Rs 950. Good long build up seen in
realty counters. Hold positions for further gains. Power and infrastructure
counters are witnessing good rollovers. Stay invested for present.
With the week ahead dotted with holidays and that many market participants are
on vacation, it can be an unpredictable week with stock specific moves amidst
low volumes.
Low trading volumes tend to compound small moves, causing high market
volatility. Take a break and enjoy holidays.
Stock scan
AIA Enginee-ring is the world's second largest manufacturer of high chro-me mill
internals and specialises in their design and installation in cement, mining and
thermal power ind-ustries. Powered by steady demand, the company has posted good
results for the first half of current fiscal. Buy on declines for a price target
of Rs 500.
Sterlite Technologies, formed out of the demerger of telecom division of
Sterlite Industries, in 2000 is one of the largest producers of optical fiber
and telecom cables and power transmission conductors. It has undertaken
aggressive expansion without any increase in debt-equity ratio leading to a
significant rise in operating margins.
Despite a rally in the stock price, it is trading at a discount to its three
year median P/E. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 500.
FDC is a debt-free pharma firm with a presence in oral rehydration salts
(Electral brand), ophthalmic, anti-infectives, derma, respiratory and
hae-matinics segments. Sources said the company has bagged large contract
manufacturing orders. Buy at the current levels for target price of Rs 100.
Orbit Corp has raised funds through QIP route and is expected to launch four new
projects in one year. Focus on volume and visibility of earnings from existing
projects make the stock a good bet from realty space. Buy for target price of Rs
400 in medium term.
As we move into 2010, an important lesson learnt from 2009 is: "If you wait too
long to buy, until every uncertainty is removed at the bottom of a market cycle,
you may be left waiting forever. Any time is a good time to invest, so long as
you pick stock diligently.
Wishing our readers a very happy and prosperous new year.
C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.
source : deccan.com
Bought to you by
Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division
Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048
Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
grow by eight per cent, the announcement of fast track divestment of some PSUs,
good advance tax numbers and positive global cues, markets bounced back during
the week ended.
On the BSE, the Sensex gained 641 points to close at 17,361 and the Nifty on the
NSE logged 191 points to end at 5,178. Market breadth was good indicating the
`return' of some retail buying interest. Renewed buying from foreign
institutional investors ahead of Christmas vacation surprised bears and
triggered short covering.
Barring major negative news, market performance in the week ahead is likely to
be similar to that of previous one due to only three trading sessions in the
week and F&O settlement.
Chartists predict a trading range of 17,090-17,800 for the Sensex and
5,080-5,360 for the Nifty. Short term supports for the indices are at 17,180 and
16,890 and 5,100 and 5,020. Expect indices to encounter resistance at 17,500 and
17,740 and 5,240 and 5,330. Hold longs if indices sustain above last week highs.
The week ahead will not only usher in a new year but also a new decade.
If present Nifty companies maintain 10.5 per cent CAGR of EPS through out the
next decade, Nifty — by 2020 — can either touch 17,600 in the bullish senario
with P/E of 28 or 6600 in the bearish case with P/E of 10.5. Nifty can touch
10,100 by 2020, even if present P/E of 18 is maintained in the next ten years.
The market is most dangerous when it looks best; it is most inviting when it
looks worst. Don't buy in a hurry-investigate each stock thoroughly before
buying.
Futures & Options
Despite the holidays, the derivative segment witnessed robust volumes during the
week ended. Overall open interest rose sharply by nine per cent to nearly Rs
1,30,000 crore reflecting the underlying bullish undertone.
Nifty OI PCR at 1.48 indicates that further bear squeeze is not ruled out and
that 5,050-5,100 band will be a good support zone.
Among the stock futures looking good for further gains in January series are
Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors from the autos; Hotel Leela and Indian Hotels from
hospitality; Ranbaxy, Biocon and Sun Pharma from pharma; BEML, BHEL, Crompton
Greaves and L&T from capital goods; HCC, IVRCL and Reliance Infra from
infrastructure; Tata Steel, Hindalco and SAIL from metals.
Side counters which are likely to attract heightened attention are EKC, Aditya
Birla Nuevo, Siemens, GTL, PTC and Opto Circuits. Cement stocks are witnessing
renewed buying. Buy ACC for a target price of Rs 950. Good long build up seen in
realty counters. Hold positions for further gains. Power and infrastructure
counters are witnessing good rollovers. Stay invested for present.
With the week ahead dotted with holidays and that many market participants are
on vacation, it can be an unpredictable week with stock specific moves amidst
low volumes.
Low trading volumes tend to compound small moves, causing high market
volatility. Take a break and enjoy holidays.
Stock scan
AIA Enginee-ring is the world's second largest manufacturer of high chro-me mill
internals and specialises in their design and installation in cement, mining and
thermal power ind-ustries. Powered by steady demand, the company has posted good
results for the first half of current fiscal. Buy on declines for a price target
of Rs 500.
Sterlite Technologies, formed out of the demerger of telecom division of
Sterlite Industries, in 2000 is one of the largest producers of optical fiber
and telecom cables and power transmission conductors. It has undertaken
aggressive expansion without any increase in debt-equity ratio leading to a
significant rise in operating margins.
Despite a rally in the stock price, it is trading at a discount to its three
year median P/E. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 500.
FDC is a debt-free pharma firm with a presence in oral rehydration salts
(Electral brand), ophthalmic, anti-infectives, derma, respiratory and
hae-matinics segments. Sources said the company has bagged large contract
manufacturing orders. Buy at the current levels for target price of Rs 100.
Orbit Corp has raised funds through QIP route and is expected to launch four new
projects in one year. Focus on volume and visibility of earnings from existing
projects make the stock a good bet from realty space. Buy for target price of Rs
400 in medium term.
As we move into 2010, an important lesson learnt from 2009 is: "If you wait too
long to buy, until every uncertainty is removed at the bottom of a market cycle,
you may be left waiting forever. Any time is a good time to invest, so long as
you pick stock diligently.
Wishing our readers a very happy and prosperous new year.
C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.
source : deccan.com
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Sunday, December 20, 2009
BSE NSE Outlook for 21-24 Dec 09
Market will be extremely volatile with downward bias
As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement
The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the psychological 5000 level during 18th December 2009. All throughout the week the market was volatile with negative close on each day. For the full week ended 18th December 2009 the nifty fell 129.60 points to close at 4987.70 on Friday. Speculation that the Reserve Bank may tighten monetary policy and the expectation of CRR hike further dented the market during the day. In the futures and option (F&O) front the market traded mix with rather mix signals although the overall trend was negative. The average volume in the F&O segment during the week under review stood higher at Rs 72936.35 crore. The nifty December future added 2.74 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.45 crore shares while the nifty January future added 5.80 lakh shares in OI on Friday 18th December 2009 to take the total OI to 34.89 lakh shares. All throughout the week the nifty December future shed OI to the tune of 25.93 lakh shares.
On the stock futures front most of the frontline stock futures shed December OI with simultaneous increase in OI in the January series. Most of the OI increase in January series was due to fresh short positions being created. December stock futures overall shed 2.04 crore shares in OI on Friday while 2.87 crore shares OI was added in the January stock futures. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors shed 4.58 lakh shares, 21.41 lakh shares and 27.37 lakh shares in OI during the week under review. ICICI Bank, Sail, Bharti, Rcom and Maruti also shed OI during the week.
Reliance January OI increased by 1.82 lakh shares to take the total OI to 7.96 lakh shares, January series Tata Steel and Tata Motors OI increased by 2.04 lakh shares and 6.42 lakh shares to 26.14 lakh shares and 28.15 lakh shares respectively. January series ICICI Bank OI increased by 5.40 lakh shares to 24.07 lakh shares, while Bharti OI increased by 1.77 lakh shares to 22.91 lakh shares.
In the nifty option front there were negative signals as fresh call writing was observed in the 4900 to 5200 strikes. Besides 4800 and 4900 strike puts witnessed fresh addition of OI.
| Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.) | |||||
| Date | Index Futures | Stock Futures | Index Options | Stock Options | Total |
| 27-Nov-09 | 24665 | 19895 | 49581 | 1934 | 96075 |
| 30-Nov-09 | 17464 | 17199 | 30912 | 1973 | 67548 |
| 1-Dec-09 | 12606 | 17793 | 28166 | 2091 | 60657 |
| 2-Dec-09 | 11866 | 19831 | 22893 | 2126 | 56715 |
| 3-Dec-09 | 14559 | 18200 | 25938 | 1964 | 60660 |
| 4-Dec-09 | 17412 | 17490 | 34873 | 1756 | 71531 |
| 7-Dec-09 | 14002 | 14780 | 27395 | 1864 | 58041 |
| 8-Dec-09 | 17641 | 17741 | 31994 | 2052 | 69429 |
| 9-Dec-09 | 15259 | 16937 | 27174 | 1945 | 61314 |
| 10-Dec-09 | 14415 | 15059 | 26852 | 1658 | 57983 |
| 11-Dec-09 | 17440 | 16121 | 35873 | 1898 | 71332 |
| 14-Dec-09 | 16342 | 15212 | 40475 | 1666 | 73694 |
| 15-Dec-09 | 15450 | 16638 | 35621 | 2013 | 69721 |
| 16-Dec-09 | 16824 | 17380 | 39950 | 1977 | 76131 |
| 17-Dec-09 | 16561 | 16550 | 38810 | 1777 | 73698 |
| 18-Dec-09 | 15397 | 15584 | 38544 | 1912 | 71437 |
| Source: NSE | |||||
Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 192.97 crore shares, thus gaining by 1.86 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day, however OI increased by 9.76 crore shares as compared to the previous week. Increase in week-on-week OI was due to increased activity in Stock futures and option segment whose OI increased by 4.44 crore shares and 4.49 crore shares respectively on a week-on-week basis. (See table OI breakup).
| Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 18th December 2009 | ||
| Open Interest (OI)* | Change** | |
| Market wide | 192.97 | 1.86 |
| Index Future | 3.13 | 0.12 |
| Stock Future | 145.77 | 0.85 |
| Index Options | 12.79 | 0.24 |
| Stock options | 31.28 | 0.66 |
| * No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE | ||
Fresh aggressive call writing was witnessed in the 4900, 5000, 5100 and 5200 strike thus indicating bearish tone. The OI of these strikes increased by 2 lakh shares, 11.7 lakh shares, 7.53 lakh shares and 3.73 lakh shares respectively. However there was some put writing as well on 4800 and 4900 strikes. In the January series there was call writing at 5000 and 5100 and 5400 strikes, while there was aggressive put buying in the 4800, 4900 and 5000 strikes. (See most active Nifty options table).
| Most active Nifty options (December series) | |
| OI | |
| Call | |
| Nifty 4900 | 1656700 |
| Nifty 5000 | 4525150 |
| Nifty 5100 | 7719150 |
| Nifty 5200 | 7200250 |
| Put | |
| Nifty 4800 | 4730500 |
| Nifty 4900 | 4937300 |
| Nifty 5000 | 4780150 |
| Nifty 5100 | 2197850 |
| Source: NSE | |
Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009
| Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
| ASIANPAINT | 14800 | 4200 | 40 |
| CROMPGREAV | 489000 | 70000 | 17 |
| DRREDDY | 546000 | 60000 | 12 |
| TITAN | 89404 | 7416 | 9 |
| MCDOWELL-N | 901250 | 54250 | 6 |
| LUPIN | 418600 | 24500 | 6 |
| RECLTD | 2460900 | 142350 | 6 |
| IDEA | 31986900 | 1830600 | 6 |
| BALRAMCHIN | 18703200 | 1034400 | 6 |
| BAJAJHIND | 12749475 | 646950 | 5 |
| * No of shares Source: NSE | |||
Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009
| Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
| GLAXO | 36900 | -54900 | -60 |
| GTL | 2845500 | -701250 | -20 |
| APIL | 534000 | -79200 | -13 |
| PANTALOONR | 2868750 | -386750 | -12 |
| CAIRN | 10205000 | -1265000 | -11 |
| INFOSYSTCH | 2638800 | -319000 | -11 |
| ROLTA | 2500200 | -300600 | -11 |
| BHEL | 1572300 | -177600 | -10 |
| OFSS | 420600 | -47100 | -10 |
| CONCOR | 6750 | -750 | -10 |
| * No of shares Source: NSE | |||
As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement.
Source : CapitalMarket
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BSE NSE Weekly Review 18 Dec 09
Sensex lost 2.3% to end at 17,720 while the Nifty fell 2.5% to shut shop at 4,988. Bears seem to tighten their grip over the Indian bourses, which was otherwise quite lackluster. The Nifty lost nearly 4% from its 52-week high, which it rose to during the previous week. Murky economic outlook, worry of soaring food prices and possible interest rates hike continued to weigh upon the sentiment. For the week, the BSE Sensex lost 2.3% to end at 17,720 while the NSE Nifty fell 2.5% to shut shop at 4,988. The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,275 and low of 16,899 while the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,156 and low of 4,979 The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Ranbaxy Labs (up 6.5%), ACC (up 5.5%), Cipla (up 4.7%), Wipro (up 4.7%) and Tata Motors (up 3.1%). The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were HDFC Bank (down 6.8%), DLF (down 6.7%), ICICI Bank (down 6.4%), Reliance Industries (down 5.9%) and SBI (down 5.3%). The BSE IT Index (up 3%): The top gainer in the IT sector was HCL Tech. The stock rose over 5% during the week. A report released by IIFL during the week stated that, “HCL Tech’s US$ organic revenue growth in 2QFY10 was ~10ppt higher than that of its peers Infosys, TCS and Wipro, thanks to its aggressiveness in bidding for new deals in a tight demand environment. Margins, on the other hand, have been under pressure because of acquisitions, a struggling BPO business and deal ramp ups. However, we see relatively better margin tailwinds as large deal rampups stabilise and integration synergies come to the fore. Also, after a year of volatile hedging, the company’s new forex policy indicates stability. Valuations are at ~30% to 45% discount to peers against the historical average of ~17% to 25%. We upgrade our recommendation to ADD”. Wipro surged over 4.5% during the week after reports stated that the company entered into a partnership for an out-tasking of testing services with Telefonica, Germany. TCS gained 3% during the week. According to reports, the company has emerged as the sole bidder for the modernisation and outsourcing contract of UK government’s pension body. Sasken Communication (up 4.7%) and Mphasis (up 4%) were among the other notable gainers. The top losers were Mahindra Satyam (down 9.1%) and Financial Tech (down 3.3%). The BSE Consumer Index: The top losers in the Consumer Durables space were Samtel Color (down 7%), Su-Raj Diamonds (down 3.5%), Whirlpool (down 2.4%), Blue Star (down 2.2%) and Videocon Industries (down 0.6%). The BSE Healthcare Index (up 3.8%): The top gainer in the Pharma space was Dr Reddy's Labs. The stock rose over 9%. The company launched omeprazole, a generic version of AstraZeneca's Prilosec, in the United States. Ranbaxy Labs advanced 6.5% during the week. The company reportedly sold as many as 5 lakh shares of Orchid Chemicals through a bulk deal on Tuesday, well before the latter announced the sale of its generic injectables business to US firm Hospira. Lupin (up 5%), Cipla (up 4.7%) and Sun Pharma (up 4.3%) were among the other major gainers. The top losers were Marksans Pharma (down 4.6%), Astrazeneca Pharma (down 3.3%), Torrent Pharma (down 2.8%) and Pfizer (down 2.3%). Wockhardt shares fell 3.3% during the week. According to reports the tie-up between Kamineni Hospital and the company to run two hospitals seems to be heading for a split. Piramal Healthcare ended lower by 0.6% during the week. A report released by IIFL during the week stated that, “Piramal Healthcare, being one of the largest players open to inorganic growth, would be one of the prime beneficiaries from potential consolidation in the fragmented domestic pharma market. With problems in the CRAMS business easing off, we expect stable growth ahead. The global critical-care business, expanded through recent acquisitions, is strategically well-positioned to take off over the next 3-6 quarters, with increasing market share in existing markets and launches in new markets. The pathology laboratories business is a less well-known growth driver for the medium to long term. We initiate coverage on Piramal Healthcare with BUY rating and price target of Rs492”. The BSE Banking Index (down 5.6%): Disappointing advance tax numbers by banking heavyweights like ICICI Bank and SBI dampened the sentiment; both the stocks fell 2% and 1.6% respectively. The top losers in the banking space were Andhra Bank (down 10%), Allahabad Bank (down 8.2%), Bank of India (down 7.1%), Axis Bank (down 6.9%) and HDFC Bank (down 6.8%). The BSE Auto Index (up 0.2%): The top losers in the auto space were Ashok Leyland (down 4.8%), Maruti Suzuki (down 2.7%), Swaraj Mazda (down 2.4%), Hindustan Motors (down 2%) and Bajaj Auto (down 1.2%). The top gainers in the auto space were Tata Motors (up 3.1%), M&M (up 2.4%) and Hero Honda (up 0.2%). A report released by IIFL during the week stated that, “Most automakers’ margins peaked in 2QFY09. Going forward, increase in commodity prices will put pressure on margins. Furthermore, these cost increases will be difficult to pass on to customers, given: 1) the imminent increase in excise duty rates; and 2) the inevitable increase in costs due to adoption of new emission standards (two-wheelers are already compliant with the most stringent emission norms). On the other hand, a preliminary analysis of the GST code suggests that its adoption could offer auto companies some margin respite. As changes in excise duty and emission norms do not affect prices of tractors, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is the best-placed in this respect. CV companies have already increased prices by ~6% in the past 12 months and hence could find it difficult to raise prices further. We continue to prefer consumption-led stories on the rural side—Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto”. The BSE Oil & Gas Index (down 4.1%): The top losers in the oil & gas space were IOC (down 7.2%), Reliance Industries (down 5.9%), HPCL (down 4.7%), BPCL (down 4.3%) and Jindal Drilling (down 2.1%). The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Gujarat NRE Coke (up 9.1%) and Essar Oil (up 0.4%). The BSE Capital Goods Index (down 1.4%): The top losers in the Capital Goods were Esab India (down 6.5%), Aban Offshore (down 5.4%), Astra Microwave (down 4.8%), Alfa Laval India (down 4.5%) and Alstom Projects (down 3.7%). The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were HEG (up 18.8%), Greaves Cotton (up 12.8%), Ingersoll Rand (up 10.6%), Jyoti Structures (up 5.5%) and Lakshmi Machine (up 2.7%). The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Mangalam Cement (up 15.5%), ACC (up 5.5%), Ultratech Cement (up 4.5%), Dalmia Cement (up 4.2%) and Gujarat Sidhee (up 1.5%). According to a report released by IIFL during the week, “All-India despatches increased 8.8% YoY in November 2009 (YTD growth at 10.7%). • Central region recorded 17% YoY despatch growth, with a rebound in infrastructure spends. South continues to lag. • All-India capacity utilisation declined 230bps YoY to 81%, primarily on account of sharp increase in capacities in the south. • We continue to be negative on south-based companies and positive on north-based companies.” The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom space were Shyam Telecom (down 8.2%), RCom (down 6.3%), Gemini Comm (down 5.9%), Himachal Futuristic (down 5.4%) and MTNL (down 4.9%). Bharti Airtel lost 4.1% during the week. The company is reportedly looking to acquire a controlling stake in phone operator Warid Telecom, Bangladesh. The Realty Sector (down 5.5%): The top losers in the Realty index were Unitech (down 7.4%), DLF (down 6.7%), Mahindra Lifespace (down 6.4%), Ansal Props (down 5.4%) and Omaxe (down 4.2%). The Metals sector (down 1.2%): The top losers were Jindal Steel (down 5%), Lloyds Metals (down 4.1%), Bhuwalka Steel (down 3.5%), Ispat Industries (down 3%) and Tata Metaliks (down 1.4%). The top gainers were Tata Sponge (up 5.4%), Tata Steel (up 3.1%), SAIL (up 1%) and Sunflag Iron (up 1%). Bhushan Steel added 1% during the week. The company is reportedly planning to increase prices of its products by up to Rs1,500 a ton next month. Source IIFL Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Indian Stock Markets BSE Sensex & NSE Nifty Outlook for 16-20 Nov 09
Derivatives: Absence of global or domestic triggers may induce horizontal moves going ahead
Though F&O suggest bullishness, the absence of any global or domestic triggers can lead to some sideway moment during the forthcoming days, but retail investors remaining nervous
Following the global market the Indian market continued to spiral up during the week ended 13th November 2009. The spiral-up during the previous week was mainly driven by the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) as well as the Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) who were net buyers through-out the week while the participation by retail investors were irrelevant as far as the rise is concerned. They remained net sellers during the week. It shows evident signs of nervousness prevalent in the retail investors mind. Going ahead the market will closely watch any signs of unwinding of US Dollar carry trade. Many are borrowing the dollar and investing in high yielding risky asset, which has been a major factor behind the rally in the Indian market as well. Any rise in interest rate in the US besides US$ strengthening will reverse the carry trade trend and would hit the market severely. The hardening inflation in the domestic market besides policy tightening going ahead will have a significant bearing on the domestic market. The market continued its growth momentum during the previous week with the Nifty rising by 200.30 points to close the week at 4996.45. The Nifty future closed at a premium of 6.20 points at 5002.65 on Friday. The average futures & options (F&O) volume during the week ended 13th November 2009 was Rs 79228.39 crore.
In the F&O segment both the nifty future and some of the front-line stock future significantly added open interest (OI). For e.g. during the week the nifty added 7.92 lakh shares in OI and the total OI stood at 2.77 crore shares as on Friday. 9.71 lakh shares of OI were added during Friday.
Reliance added 55 thousand shares whereas Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 13.45 lakh shares and 24.81 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week ended 13th November 2009. Other major front-line stock futures viz- Infosys, ICICI Bank, DLF and Maruti added OI during the week under review, whereas Unitech, Sail and Rcom shed OI.
| Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.) | |||||
| Date | Index Futures | Stock Futures | Index Options | Stock Options | Total |
| 30-Oct-09 | 19335 | 20280 | 36957 | 1765 | 78337 |
| 3-Nov-09 | 18772 | 18585 | 42334 | 1883 | 81574 |
| 4-Nov-09 | 16337 | 18084 | 35787 | 2032 | 72239 |
| 5-Nov-09 | 24104 | 21408 | 48721 | 2265 | 96499 |
| 6-Nov-09 | 16576 | 19259 | 39632 | 1929 | 77395 |
| 9-Nov-09 | 15328 | 17800 | 38812 | 1863 | 73802 |
| 10-Nov-09 | 16991 | 21511 | 40210 | 2296 | 81008 |
| 11-Nov-09 | 17546 | 20564 | 46544 | 2310 | 86964 |
| 12-Nov-09 | 18831 | 19816 | 41012 | 2431 | 82090 |
| 13-Nov-09 | 15878 | 16889 | 37663 | 1849 | 72278 |
| Source: NSE | |||||
Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 173.67 crore shares, thus gaining by 2.04 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. Index future added just 11 lakh shares in OI whereas the major addition was witnessed by the stock futures. (See table OI breakup).
| Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 13th November 2009 | ||
| Open Interest (OI)* | Change** | |
| Market wide | 173.67 | 2.04 |
| Index Future | 3.23 | 0.11 |
| Stock Future | 131.59 | 0.54 |
| Index Options | 11.96 | 0.25 |
| Stock options | 26.89 | 1.14 |
| * No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE | ||
In the nifty option segment in-the-money strike nifty call witnessed unwinding of OI whereas at-the-money and out-of-the money nifty strikes witnessed addition of OI signifying fresh call buying at these strikes. However both out-of-the money and in-the-money nifty puts witnessed aggressive put writing signifying strong bullishness as far as the option indicators are concerned.
For the full week under review the nifty 5000 and 5100 strike call added 4.58 lakh shares and 14.34 lakh shares in OI and the total OI of both these strikes as on Friday stood at 38.72 lakh shares and 33.22 lakh shares respectively. The 4800 and 4900 strike puts added 32.25 lakh shares and 43.19 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week under review. Further the 5000 and 5100 strike puts added 32.96 lakh shares and 7.26 lakh shares in OI. Such aggressive put writing of these strikes indicates bullishness as the market expects the nifty underlying to easily cross these strike levels. (See most active Nifty options table).
| Most active Nifty options (November series) | |
| OI | |
| Call | |
| Nifty 4700 | 2278650 |
| Nifty 4900 | 3045900 |
| Nifty 5000 | 3872050 |
| Nifty 5300 | 1869600 |
| Put | |
| Nifty 4800 | 6239200 |
| Nifty 4900 | 5614200 |
| Nifty 5000 | 4621700 |
| Nifty 5100 | 1075350 |
| Source: NSE | |
| Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009 | |||
| Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
| TECHM | 948600 | 213600 | 18 |
| SUNTV | 339000 | 76000 | 18 |
| JSWSTEEL | 3567508 | 763024 | 18 |
| PATELENG | 726000 | 127000 | 15 |
| BOSCHLTD | 3000 | 500 | 14 |
| PATNI | 1004900 | 133900 | 12 |
| NAGARCONST | 2090000 | 260000 | 11 |
| IVRCLINFRA | 2666000 | 286000 | 10 |
| TCS | 4911000 | 516000 | 10 |
| SINTEX | 547400 | 56000 | 9 |
| * No of shares Source: NSE | |||
| Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009 | |||
| Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
| BANKINDIA | 1924700 | -265050 | -16 |
| BRFL | 5027800 | -525550 | -12 |
| PTC | 5205250 | -538150 | -12 |
| APIL | 680400 | -70200 | -12 |
| ROLTA | 3357000 | -340200 | -11 |
| FSL | 25156000 | -2432000 | -11 |
| LITL | 2139214 | -160776 | -8 |
| UNIONBANK | 1523550 | -114450 | -8 |
| AXISBANK | 2807100 | -180000 | -7 |
| POLARIS | 3679200 | -226800 | -7 |
| * No of shares Source: NSE | |||
Although the market remained at high and the F&O indication are also suggesting bullishness, a lot will depend on the activity in the foreign market in the absence of any major domestic triggers. The market may continue its growth momentum citing global market. Also in the absence of any global or domestic triggers some sideway moment is expected during the proceeding days. The nervousness among retail investors still persists as evident from their lack of participation in the recent rally.
Source:Capital Market
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