BSE NSE Outlook for 21-24 Dec 09

Market will be extremely volatile with downward bias

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement

The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the psychological 5000 level during 18^th December 2009. All throughout the week the market was volatile with negative close on each day. For the full week ended 18^th December 2009 the nifty fell 129.60 points to close at 4987.70 on Friday. Speculation that the Reserve Bank may tighten monetary policy and the expectation of CRR hike further dented the market during the day. In the futures and option (F&O) front the market traded mix with rather mix signals although the overall trend was negative. The average volume in the F&O segment during the week under review stood higher at Rs 72936.35 crore. The nifty December future added 2.74 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.45 crore shares while the nifty January future added 5.80 lakh shares in OI on Friday 18^th December 2009 to take the total OI to 34.89 lakh shares. All throughout the week the nifty December future shed OI to the tune of 25.93 lakh shares.

On the stock futures front most of the frontline stock futures shed December OI with simultaneous increase in OI in the January series. Most of the OI increase in January series was due to fresh short positions being created. December stock futures overall shed 2.04 crore shares in OI on Friday while 2.87 crore shares OI was added in the January stock futures. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors shed 4.58 lakh shares, 21.41 lakh shares and 27.37 lakh shares in OI during the week under review. ICICI Bank, Sail, Bharti, Rcom and Maruti also shed OI during the week.

Reliance January OI increased by 1.82 lakh shares to take the total OI to 7.96 lakh shares, January series Tata Steel and Tata Motors OI increased by 2.04 lakh shares and 6.42 lakh shares to 26.14 lakh shares and 28.15 lakh shares respectively. January series ICICI Bank OI increased by 5.40 lakh shares to 24.07 lakh shares, while Bharti OI increased by 1.77 lakh shares to 22.91 lakh shares.

In the nifty option front there were negative signals as fresh call writing was observed in the 4900 to 5200 strikes. Besides 4800 and 4900 strike puts witnessed fresh addition of OI.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
27-Nov-09	24665	19895	49581	1934	96075
30-Nov-09	17464	17199	30912	1973	67548
1-Dec-09	12606	17793	28166	2091	60657
2-Dec-09	11866	19831	22893	2126	56715
3-Dec-09	14559	18200	25938	1964	60660
4-Dec-09	17412	17490	34873	1756	71531
7-Dec-09	14002	14780	27395	1864	58041
8-Dec-09	17641	17741	31994	2052	69429
9-Dec-09	15259	16937	27174	1945	61314
10-Dec-09	14415	15059	26852	1658	57983
11-Dec-09	17440	16121	35873	1898	71332
14-Dec-09	16342	15212	40475	1666	73694
15-Dec-09	15450	16638	35621	2013	69721
16-Dec-09	16824	17380	39950	1977	76131
17-Dec-09	16561	16550	38810	1777	73698
18-Dec-09	15397	15584	38544	1912	71437
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 192.97 crore shares, thus gaining by 1.86 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day, however OI increased by 9.76 crore shares as compared to the previous week. Increase in week-on-week OI was due to increased activity in Stock futures and option segment whose OI increased by 4.44 crore shares and 4.49 crore shares respectively on a week-on-week basis. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 18th December 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	192.97	1.86
Index Future	3.13	0.12
Stock Future	145.77	0.85
Index Options	12.79	0.24
Stock options	31.28	0.66
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

Fresh aggressive call writing was witnessed in the 4900, 5000, 5100 and 5200 strike thus indicating bearish tone. The OI of these strikes increased by 2 lakh shares, 11.7 lakh shares, 7.53 lakh shares and 3.73 lakh shares respectively. However there was some put writing as well on 4800 and 4900 strikes. In the January series there was call writing at 5000 and 5100 and 5400 strikes, while there was aggressive put buying in the 4800, 4900 and 5000 strikes. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (December series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4900	1656700
Nifty 5000	4525150
Nifty 5100	7719150
Nifty 5200	7200250
Put
Nifty 4800	4730500
Nifty 4900	4937300
Nifty 5000	4780150
Nifty 5100	2197850
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
ASIANPAINT	14800	4200	40
CROMPGREAV	489000	70000	17
DRREDDY	546000	60000	12
TITAN	89404	7416	9
MCDOWELL-N	901250	54250	6
LUPIN	418600	24500	6
RECLTD	2460900	142350	6
IDEA	31986900	1830600	6
BALRAMCHIN	18703200	1034400	6
BAJAJHIND	12749475	646950	5
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
GLAXO	36900	-54900	-60
GTL	2845500	-701250	-20
APIL	534000	-79200	-13
PANTALOONR	2868750	-386750	-12
CAIRN	10205000	-1265000	-11
INFOSYSTCH	2638800	-319000	-11
ROLTA	2500200	-300600	-11
BHEL	1572300	-177600	-10
OFSS	420600	-47100	-10
CONCOR	6750	-750	-10
* No of shares Source: NSE

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement.

Source : CapitalMarket

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