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Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying the stock of Ashok Leyland (Rs 51.1).
Following a turnaround from Rs 12.5 in December 2009, the stock was on a long-term uptrend until it peaked out around Rs 81 in November 2010. A downtrend that commenced from its November peak was arrested in the range between Rs 45 and Rs 47 during this February, after retracing 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the stock's previous up move.
Moreover, the stock has significant long-term support in Rs 45-47 range. Last week, the stock took support from this range for the second time and bounced up forming a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern on May 19 by gaining 4 per cent. Reinforcing the bullish momentum, the stock subsequently jumped 5 per cent breaching its 21-day moving average.
A positive divergence in the daily relative strength index and daily stochastic oscillator backs the stocks' trend reversal. We notice that there is an increase in volumes over the past two trading sessions supporting the up move.
The daily moving average converge divergence indicator has signalled a sell. Daily RSI is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering into neutral region from the bearish zone.
Though the down trendline is still in place, we take a contrarian stance on the stock considering the above mentioned bullish facts. We are bearish on the stock from a medium-term perspective.
We believe that Ashok Leyland has the potential of moving lower to sub 40 levels owing to the headwinds. The high interest regime couple with slow down in infrastructure could lead to declines in sales. We expect the price to be lower and reach our medium-term price target of Rs 40. However we don't rule out a minor pause spike around Rs 55.5. Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying selling the stock in the short term. Long term / portfolio investors can consider buying below 40 levels and hold for 15-18 months !
The following table clearly shows the negative bias of the scrip during the last 1 year
Time Span | Price | Change | %Change |
Today | 49.65 | 1.30 | 2.68 |
Week | 47.90 | 0.45 | 0.93 |
Month | 51.80 | -3.45 | -6.66 |
Three Months | 57.90 | -9.55 | -16.49 |
Six Months | 63.90 | -15.55 | -24.33 |
One Year | 62.60 | -14.25 | -22.76 |
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Derivatives: Absence of global or domestic triggers may induce horizontal moves going ahead
In the F&O segment both the nifty future and some of the front-line stock future significantly added open interest (OI). For e.g. during the week the nifty added 7.92 lakh shares in OI and the total OI stood at 2.77 crore shares as on Friday. 9.71 lakh shares of OI were added during Friday.
Reliance added 55 thousand shares whereas Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 13.45 lakh shares and 24.81 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week ended 13th November 2009. Other major front-line stock futures viz- Infosys, ICICI Bank, DLF and Maruti added OI during the week under review, whereas Unitech, Sail and Rcom shed OI.
Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.) | |||||
Date | Index Futures | Stock Futures | Index Options | Stock Options | Total |
30-Oct-09 | 19335 | 20280 | 36957 | 1765 | 78337 |
3-Nov-09 | 18772 | 18585 | 42334 | 1883 | 81574 |
4-Nov-09 | 16337 | 18084 | 35787 | 2032 | 72239 |
5-Nov-09 | 24104 | 21408 | 48721 | 2265 | 96499 |
6-Nov-09 | 16576 | 19259 | 39632 | 1929 | 77395 |
9-Nov-09 | 15328 | 17800 | 38812 | 1863 | 73802 |
10-Nov-09 | 16991 | 21511 | 40210 | 2296 | 81008 |
11-Nov-09 | 17546 | 20564 | 46544 | 2310 | 86964 |
12-Nov-09 | 18831 | 19816 | 41012 | 2431 | 82090 |
13-Nov-09 | 15878 | 16889 | 37663 | 1849 | 72278 |
Source: NSE |
Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 173.67 crore shares, thus gaining by 2.04 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. Index future added just 11 lakh shares in OI whereas the major addition was witnessed by the stock futures. (See table OI breakup).
Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 13th November 2009 | ||
Open Interest (OI)* | Change** | |
Market wide | 173.67 | 2.04 |
Index Future | 3.23 | 0.11 |
Stock Future | 131.59 | 0.54 |
Index Options | 11.96 | 0.25 |
Stock options | 26.89 | 1.14 |
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE |
In the nifty option segment in-the-money strike nifty call witnessed unwinding of OI whereas at-the-money and out-of-the money nifty strikes witnessed addition of OI signifying fresh call buying at these strikes. However both out-of-the money and in-the-money nifty puts witnessed aggressive put writing signifying strong bullishness as far as the option indicators are concerned.
For the full week under review the nifty 5000 and 5100 strike call added 4.58 lakh shares and 14.34 lakh shares in OI and the total OI of both these strikes as on Friday stood at 38.72 lakh shares and 33.22 lakh shares respectively. The 4800 and 4900 strike puts added 32.25 lakh shares and 43.19 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week under review. Further the 5000 and 5100 strike puts added 32.96 lakh shares and 7.26 lakh shares in OI. Such aggressive put writing of these strikes indicates bullishness as the market expects the nifty underlying to easily cross these strike levels. (See most active Nifty options table).
Most active Nifty options (November series) | |
OI | |
Call | |
Nifty 4700 | 2278650 |
Nifty 4900 | 3045900 |
Nifty 5000 | 3872050 |
Nifty 5300 | 1869600 |
Put | |
Nifty 4800 | 6239200 |
Nifty 4900 | 5614200 |
Nifty 5000 | 4621700 |
Nifty 5100 | 1075350 |
Source: NSE |
Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009 | |||
Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
TECHM | 948600 | 213600 | 18 |
SUNTV | 339000 | 76000 | 18 |
JSWSTEEL | 3567508 | 763024 | 18 |
PATELENG | 726000 | 127000 | 15 |
BOSCHLTD | 3000 | 500 | 14 |
PATNI | 1004900 | 133900 | 12 |
NAGARCONST | 2090000 | 260000 | 11 |
IVRCLINFRA | 2666000 | 286000 | 10 |
TCS | 4911000 | 516000 | 10 |
SINTEX | 547400 | 56000 | 9 |
* No of shares Source: NSE |
Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009 | |||
Scrip Name | OI* | Change* | % Change |
BANKINDIA | 1924700 | -265050 | -16 |
BRFL | 5027800 | -525550 | -12 |
PTC | 5205250 | -538150 | -12 |
APIL | 680400 | -70200 | -12 |
ROLTA | 3357000 | -340200 | -11 |
FSL | 25156000 | -2432000 | -11 |
LITL | 2139214 | -160776 | -8 |
UNIONBANK | 1523550 | -114450 | -8 |
AXISBANK | 2807100 | -180000 | -7 |
POLARIS | 3679200 | -226800 | -7 |
* No of shares Source: NSE |
Although the market remained at high and the F&O indication are also suggesting bullishness, a lot will depend on the activity in the foreign market in the absence of any major domestic triggers. The market may continue its growth momentum citing global market. Also in the absence of any global or domestic triggers some sideway moment is expected during the proceeding days. The nervousness among retail investors still persists as evident from their lack of participation in the recent rally.
Source:Capital Market
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