FnO Strategy - Bear put spread will pay off !

Index Strategy: Bear put spread on Nifty

Srividhya Sivakumar

Well, the Union Budget is over now and with it perhaps also the euphoria. As market participants wake up to the real impact of the budget proposals, it is quite likely that much of initial jubilation may die down. We suggest traders to set a bear put spread on Nifty to benefit from such a weakness. You can do this by buying Nifty March 4,900 put option and simultaneously selling Nifty March 4,800 put. This would result in a net initial debit as the strategy involves buying in the money put as against selling one that is out of money. In this case, you will have to shell out Rs 105 for buying Nifty March 4,900 put, while you will receive Rs 70 when you write Nifty March 4,800 put. On the whole, the spread will cost you Rs 35/share.

You can time the purchase and sale of options depending on the day's market movement to optimise your cost. Note that for the coming week, we expect the markets to trend upwards first before it begins to fall lower.

Maximum profit potential: The maximum profit for this spread will occur when the Nifty moves below the strike price of the sold option, i.e. 4,800. The maximum profit, however, will be limited to the difference between the two strikes minus the net debit paid or the cost of setting the spread. In this case, it will be Rs 65.

Maximum loss potential: When your spread is totally out of money i.e. when Nifty value is higher than the 4,900, the maximum loss that you can suffer will be limited to the net debit paid, Rs 35 – that is the money that was spent initially in setting the bear put spread.

This means in essence you would be taking a maximum risk of Rs 35 to earn a maximum profit of Rs 65. Traders with a slightly more bearish view can tweak the strike price of the sold option lower to 4,700. This will result in a slightly higher risk-return payoff. Traders can also consider going short on Nifty with a stop at 5,025.

When to exit?

Traders should consider booking profits and closing the positions as soon as the underlying trends below the strike price of the sold put option. If you feel that the likelihood of the underlying moving down is low, close the position prematurely.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - Elgi Equipments

The extent of diversification has allowed Elgi to maintain growth momentum.

Vidya Bala

Investors with at least a two-three year perspective can consider buying the stock of Elgi Equipments, a manufacturer of air compressors and automobile service station equipment.

Revival in capex in the domestic market, manufacturing /trading presence in high potential developing markets such as China and Brazil and a strong cash position that allows scouting for acquisitions in new markets are factors that favour earnings growth for the company over the medium term.

At the current market price of Rs 80, Elgi's stock trades at 8.5 times its per share earnings for FY-11.

The stock is currently at a steep discount to its bigger peer Ingersoll-Rand; the latter not yet fully out of the slowdown.

Long-term play

We do not expect any significant ramp-up in revenues in the next few quarters, owing to peaking of demand (according to the management) for air compressors used for water wells and the continuing sluggishness in overseas market.

However, given that the industrial business segment has also been contributing actively to revenues and emerging markets such as Brazil and China are likely to buttress sales growth over the long term, Elgi may have to be a buy and hold candidate in one's portfolio.

The stock, at this point, could be a dark horse play; investors can consider buying it in small lots and accumulate on declines linked to broad markets.

Business

Elgi is the market leader in air compressors (over 10 per cent) as well as automobile service station equipment and is also among the larger players in Asia.

Elgi has a very wide customer base, given the diverse application of its products in sectors such as mining, transport, power, railways, oil, textiles, shipbuilding, plastics and electronics, to name a few. It also has all major automobile manufacturers as its customers.

The extent of diversification has allowed Elgi to keep up growth momentum. Even as the capex slowdown hurt capital goods companies in FY-09 resulting in decline in sales/profits, Elgi managed to grow revenues, albeit marginally even as profits remained flat.

However, strong focus on global markets resulted in a slow recovery for the company in the current fiscal. The December quarter results though, have shown the first signs of a revival with all its segments reporting growth. Revenues for this period expanded by 30 per cent, even as profits jumped 70 per cent over a year ago, thanks to a low base and lower raw material costs. Interestingly competitors such as Ingersoll-Rand and Kirloskar Pneumatic are yet to demonstrate similar decisive revival signs. However, not all is well , since the company has admitted that its demand for air compressors in the water wells segment has peaked out, which effectively means that there could be some dent in revenues.

However, pick-up in auto equipment as dealers ramp up their capex, on improved auto sales could make up for the dip in the water wells compressor demand.

Reaching out

Besides, Elgi has utilised the slowdown period to test grounds and ramp up presence in the Brazilian and Chinese markets. In Brazil, where the company's products have for long had takers, the company has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary as a trading unit.

In China, it owns a manufacturing unit and also has trading presence; the company though, may take a longer time to ramp up demand in this market, as it has to compete with local players. Nevertheless, the scope of application for Elgi's products in China, given the latter's massive manufacturing activity, combined with superior technology, is tremendous. This market could, however, take a couple of years, before it contributes significantly to the bottom line, even as revenue flow may kick in early. Elgi products' application in the oil sector has also given it a market in West Asia.

The company has a presence in UAE. This market too, in the near term is likely to remain sluggish. Elgi is in the process of acquiring a European company, which makes compressors. This move too is intended to expand geographically rather than acquire new products, as Elgi's product range, thanks to its joint ventures with many overseas players, is fairly comprehensive.

We suspect this acquisition could come at attractive valuations, given the slowdown in the region. The company has stated that it will not go for any fresh debt, suggesting that internal accruals should meet the acquisition cost. Elgi has traditionally been a debt-free company has also has a lucrative investment book.

Elgi' sales grew at 20 per cent compounded annually (to Rs 595 crore in FY-09) over the last three years, while profits expanded by 25 per cent over this period. Operating profit margins, though healthy at 12 per cent levels, could come under pressure as a result of hike in cost of steel and copper.

While any excise duty hikes in its end product is unlikely to impact margins (as its products, mostly used as inputs by clients for their business enjoy cenvat credit), as they are passed on, whether its own raw material cost hikes will hurt margins, remains to be seen.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - Buy Indusind Bank

Mr Romesh Sobti, MD and CEO.

M.V.S Santosh Kumar

One of the turnaround stories in the banking industry, IndusInd Bank continues to be a good investment opportunity for investors with a penchant for risk. We expect the return on equity (ROE) of the bank to improve from 10 per cent in 2008-09 to 17.5 per cent this fiscal, helped by improved net interest margins, better credit growth and operating efficiencies. ROEs even in the current year would have been better but for the equity dilution.

The bank's operating parameters have improved sharply over the past two years with a new management taking over. Consider this. IndusInd Bank's credit-deposit ratio has improved from 67 per cent to 77 per cent in the 21 months since the new management took over. This has aided improvement in the net interest margin to 2.94 per cent for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 from 1.37 per cent in the March quarter of 2008. The cost-income ratio too improved from 67 per cent in March 2008 to 50 per cent in December 2009, even as the net NPA ratio fell from 2.27 per cent to 0.67 per cent during the same time. However, the bank has still a long way to go before it can be comparable with the best in the industry.

While the bank consistently managed more than 90 per cent net profit growth over the last four quarters, this rate of growth may moderate, going forward. An increasing base and treasury losses from hardening interest rates may temper profit growth compared with historical rates.

At the current market price of Rs 149, the stock trades at a price-to-estimated FY11 earnings multiple of 13 and at a price-to-FY11 adjusted book value of 2.6 times. This is at a discount to Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank. High earnings growth may provide justification for this valuation.

Capital adequacy

IndusInd Bank raised Rs 480 core through a QIP issue this fiscal thereby witnessing a 15 per cent equity dilution, giving the bank much needed capital to fund high rate of loan growth.

The capital adequacy of the bank improved to 14.91 per cent in September 30, 2009 from 13.14 per cent on June 30, 2009. The capital adequacy ratio of the bank stood at 13.84 per cent at December 2009. Given the current levels, capital adequacy could be maintained above 12 per cent even if the bank's loan book grows by 30 per cent over the next one year, with the aid of internal accruals. IndusInd Bank also has significant headroom in terms of Tier-II capital raising to support loan book growth. However, the cost of Tier-II capital is expensive. Further equity dilution in 2011-12 cannot be ruled out.

Business

The loan book of the bank grew by 15 per cent compounded annually during the period 2004-09 and 32 per cent as of December 31, 2009. However, the loan book growth over the period 2009-11 may improve to 30 per cent annually, helped by better credit offtake, its commercial vehicle portfolio and retail lending. Around 32 per cent of IndusInd Bank's loans are auto loans with commercial vehicles forming a significant proportion. However, the proportion of these loans has come down from 44 per cent at the end of March 2009. However, with the revival in the auto industry, these loans, coupled with retail loans that have better yields, may form a significant portion of the loan book thereby helping the bank maintain its margins.

Improving NIMs

For the first nine months of the current fiscal (2009-10), the net profit of the bank grew by 158 per cent. Improving margins due to improving credit-deposit ratio, high rate of loan book growth (32 per cent as of December 31, 2009) and re-pricing of the advances led to high levels of profit growth. Helped by branch expansion, the proportion of low cost deposits has also improved to 22.5 per cent from 15 per cent as of March 31, 2008, also reducing the cost of deposits.

With the bank starting to meet most of its priority sector lending targets, it may not be required to invest in low-yielding bonds, which further help improve the margins. NIMs can be maintained at current levels even as the rates rise if the bank manages to improve its CASA and re-prices its loans. The lower proportion of treasury income compared with its peers would also help it survive rising interest rates efficiently. Fee income continues to support profit growth. The ‘other income' component to total net revenues stood at 40 per cent for the nine months of this fiscal.

Asset quality improved

Sequentially, even over the last quarter, the bank improved its provision coverage ratio from 35 per cent to 50 per cent. The bank is positive on improving its provision coverage to 70 per cent by the mandated period. Lower NPAs coupled with high provisions would improve the coverage and also shield the bank against any credit losses going forward. IndusInd Bank's restructured assets are one of the lowest in the banking industry with only 0.36 per cent of the total advances book restructured. While a high proportion of the current NPA is from the two-wheeler and the cars industry; this may fall as the revival in economy improves the credit worthiness of these borrowers.

Few risks

Around 52 per cent of the loans in the book are fixed, which may expose it to interest rate risk. The impact of the base rate implementation could be a bit higher for the bank due to a higher cost of funds and moderate profitability margins.

Source : BL

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Technical Analysis - Mahindra Holidays & Resorts

The company is a dominant player in the vacation ownership business.

Srividhya Sivakumar

Shareholders with a long-term perspective can retain their holdings in Mahindra Holidays & Resorts, the leading vacation ownership provider in the country. With a business model highly dependent on the domestic consumption story, the slow uptick in the economy suggests improving prospects for the company. A strong brand equity, multiple sales channel and unique revenue model further fortify its investment appeal.

However, at the current market price of Rs 434, the stock appears fully priced, trading at about 30 times its likely FY-11 per share earnings. While not having any strict comparables and being the market leader do lend room for premium valuations, it appears fairly valued at the current price. Near-term upsides, therefore, may be limited.

Unique model

In the business of vacation ownership, Mahindra Holidays' revenue model entails an upfront payment of the ownership fee with a recurring annual maintenance fee component thereafter.

This provides for higher visibility and a more stable stream of revenues compared to that of pure hospitality players. And unlike the asset-heavy hotel industry, the company does not operate on a capital-intensive business model. It adds to its assets only against the payment received on member additions. As a result, it enjoys strong cash flows and has near-zero debt on its books.

Mahindra Holidays, however, sells a significant majority of its memberships through financing schemes (monthly instalment options) and even securitises a portion of its receivables. While financing the vacation ownerships helps add to its member count, it also complements the revenue stream by way of interest income.

The risk of default is low here considering the overall profile of its member base — consisting of mostly employed professionals who are reasonably sound financially. And since MHRIL continues to hold the assets, the impact of defaults, if any, would only be negligible.

Besides, that it has so far managed to operate with near negligible rates of default lends confidence. That said, it still remains to be seen how the company would manage member additions in an increasing interest rate regime.

High interest rates tend to curb discretionary spending by consumers and so can pose a threat to member additions. This is especially relevant in the case of MHRIL since its business operates on the difference between the interests its pays to banks and the interest rate in-built into the EMI schedule of its members.

Growing membership enrolments — which is the key driver for future growth — at historical growth rates may, therefore, not be as easy (34 per cent compounded rate over the last four years).

Financials

Even though the company has a diverse source of income, its key contribution still comes from member additions only. Of the total membership fee charged, the company books nearly 60 per cent of that in the same year, while the rest is spread over the life of the membership (typically 25 years for the flagship Club Mahindra product) as entitlement fees (annuity income). It also charges an annual subscription fees over the life of the membership.

Over the last four years, Mahindra Holidays has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded annual growth rate of about 40 per cent and 76 per cent, respectively. In the same period, both its operating and profit margins have expanded significantly to about 34 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.

For the nine-months ended December 2009, the company managed to grow its revenues by about 18 per cent. Profits surpassed last fiscal's full year earnings helped by a slew of cost-control measures, which helped expand the operating margins by about 4 percentage points to 38 per cent.

The company, however, is required to spend considerably towards sales and marketing exercises (its largest cost component), as member additions hold the key to its growth.

While bringing down the sales and marketing expenses last quarter helped it better its operational performance, it may pose a threat to member additions if the cost component is brought down drastically. This cost component therefore may have to be monitored vis-à-vis member additions in the coming quarters.

But to its credit, MHRIL enjoys a fairly strong brand loyalty; over 35 per cent of the vacation ownerships sold in 2009 came through member referrals.

Health check since IPO

The company had raised roughly Rs 177 crore through its public issue in June last year for funding the proposed addition to its room inventory (capex to extend up to FY11).

As against 1,105 rooms in FY-09, the company had, as of December 2009, created an inventory of 1,403 rooms.

Member additions in the nine months from FY-09, however, have been lower than its yearly average, growing by about 17 per cent; it now has 109110 members as against 92,825 vacation owners in FY-09.

The member per room ratio too has improved, decreasing from 84 in FY-09 to 78 members per room now. And with average occupancies hovering around 75 per cent, the proposed addition to room inventory will further help the spread. It plans to expand its property in Coorg, Ooty and Ashtamudi and set up of new ones in Tungi and Theog.

Source BL

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Buy Piramal Health

Investors with a long-term perspective can consider accumulating the stock of Piramal Healthcare. A strong presence in the domestic pharmaceutical market, established relationships with several global pharma majors, and its firming hold over the high-margin inhalation anaesthetics space underscore our recommendation.

While the restrained growth in CRAMS (Contract Research and Manufacturing Services) business so far this year could mar the company's overall growth picture, signs of restocking by global pharma majors suggest that a revival may be in the offing. With innovator companies under increasing pressure to manage costs, the low-cost, high-quality offering of domestic CRAMS companies may not be easy to ignore.

Valuations too appear reasonable. At current market price of Rs 397, the stock discounts its estimated FY11 per share earning by about 15 times. Piramal's increasing domestic market presence offers it a considerable long-term growth potential. The company has been improving its market share going by its better-than-market growth in six out of the seven last quarters. While growing competition, with MNCs too entering the fray, could throw up challenges, Piramal's large field force and growing focus on tier-II and semi-urban cities will provide it an edge. New product launches (26 so far this year) and focus on lifestyle products could further complement growth.

For CRAMS, the consolidation in the global pharma landscape, in addition to restructuring of manufacturing operations at Piramal's end, appear to have cast a cloud on the segment's near-term prospects. For the nine months ended December 2009, the CRAMS business shrank by about 12 per cent. In that too, while the business from overseas was impacted significantly due to the closure of its Huddersfield plant (which has been moved to India), the India operations managed a growth of 27 per cent. The management expects the segment to get back on the growth track by next year; its strong relationship with other MNC clients, as also the long-term contract with Pfizer giving it a fillip. The other business segment that offers a significant growth potential is the global critical-care segment. Piramal now has the intellectual property to manufacture inhalation anaesthetics across the pyramid, thanks to its last year's acquisition of the US-based Minrad International. The inhalation anaesthetics present an addressable market of about $435 million in the US.

Srividhya Sivakumar

BL Research Bureau

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - BSE Outlook 2nd March 2010

Sensex (16,429.5)

The positives and negatives of the Union Budget balanced themselves to have little impact on stock prices. But Pranab Da, in a very subtle way, pleased market participants by giving them what they wanted the most – a clear plan to revert back to fiscal prudence. It may be recalled that not outlining a road-map for curtailing fiscal deficit was one of the prime reasons for the 870 points plunge in Sensex on the Budget day 2009.

Higher disposable income in the hands of the small investor through changes in income-tax slabs was a bonus. Since the Government needs a buoyant stock market to meet its colossal disinvestment target of Rs 40,000 crore, market is unlikely to face any unpleasant policy changes, at least in the ensuing months.

FIIs were net buyers on Friday though they have net sold almost Rs 2,000 crore so far this month according to BSE data. Domestic institutions continued to sell through last week. Volumes remained buoyant through the week and spiked sharply higher in the budget session. Expiry of the February contracts has resulted in the open interest coming down to a more sedate Rs 88,000 crore.

There was hardly any movement in the Sensex in the first four sessions, as the index oscillated in a very narrow range between 16,200 and 16,300. Friday's surge led the index to the intra-week peak of 16,669 but it could not sustain there for long and ended the week below 16,500.

We had outlined three possible routes that the Sensex could take on the Budget day last week. The index followed the second path -unable to move beyond 17,000 and closing the week at 16,500. The Budget day is a non-event as far as its impact on the market trend is concerned since it has altered neither the medium or the short-term trend.

It is interesting to note the similarity of patterns in the charts of all the global benchmarks. The medium term trend is down in all the indices since the mid-January peak. A mild pull-back is currently on since the beginning of February. This pull-back has however not progressed sufficiently to signal the end of the January correction.

To put it differently, all global equity markets are moving in tandem and the fate of Indian equities are strongly interwoven with that of the other markets. Since the Union Budget has not been able to scratch even the surface of the market trend, it is back to watching Greece, US, China et al to decipher where we are headed.

The medium term trend in the Sensex continues to be down and inability to move past 17,000 keeps open the risk of the third leg of the down-move from 17,790 peak unfolding that drags the index down to 15,347 or 14,530 in the days ahead. The 200 DMA at 15,910 is the critical support that most market participants would be watching in the event of a decline. A strong close above 17,000 is required to negate the current bearish medium-term view for the index.

The short-term trend in the Sensex is up. But since it is nearing key resistances at 16,775 where the 50 DMA is also poised, investors ought to stay cautious. The index could get back to a lacklustre state in the week ahead and decline to 16,280 or 16,040. The near term view will turn overtly negative on a close below the second target. Resistances for the week would be at 16,670, 16,800 and 17,000.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - Nifty Outlook

Nifty (4,922.3)

The Nifty too was confined in a narrow band between 4,850 and 4,900 in the sessions preceding the Budget before Friday's spurt took the index higher to 4,992. That the index was unable to move past 5,000 on the Budget day implies that the medium-term trend in this index continues to be down. If the third leg of the downtrend from the 5,310 peak unfolds now, it can drag the index to 4,599 or 4,357. The 200-day moving average at 4,680 would be the minimum target for a decline. Close above 5,070 is needed to mitigate this bearish view.

The short-term trend in Nifty is up since the trough at 4,675. But it is possible that this uptrend ended on Friday and the index could now decline to 4,870 or even 4,796. Traders can initiate short positions in rallies with stop at 5,025. Target on a move above 5,000 is 5,067.

Global Cues

Globally equities had a tough weak as worse than expected economic readings from the US and resurfacing of the Greece sovereign debt issue dragged stock prices lower. European and Latin American indices end the week 1 to 3 per cent lower. Asian benchmarks were relatively stronger and many of them such as KLSE Composite, Nikkei, Philippines Composite, Shanghai Composite and so on ended the week marginally in the green.

CBOE VIX spiked to 22.6 on Thursday before ending the week down at 19.5 implying that investors continue in a sanguine frame of mind. The dollar index appears to have formed a short-term peak at 81.4 and that should give some relief to emerging market equities and commodities.

The Dow could not move past the key short-term resistance at 10,400 and reversed mildly from there. Support for the week would be available at 10,200 and 10,100. Decline below the second support would mean that the downtrend from January 19 peak is continuing. Conversely rally above 10,400 would send the index to a new 2010 high.

The S&P 500 has also recorded a hanging man pattern in the weekly chart that is a reversal pattern. Key resistance for this index is at 1,110 and it is currently struggling to move over this. The week ahead is critical for defining the short-term trajectory for this index.

— Lokeshwarri S. K.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - Fortis Healthcare

Fortis Healthcare (Rs 156): Fortis Healthcare has key long-term resistance in the zone between Rs 120 and Rs 130 and it was struggling to move past this zone till the last week of December 2009.

In our review of this stock in December last year, we had indicated that an ascending triangle pattern was forming that had the target of Rs 170.

The stock broke out of the upper boundary of this triangle pattern in December last year and recorded the recent peak at Rs 162.4 on February 17.

Investors with a short to medium-term perspective can hold with stop at Rs 132. If this level holds, investors can expect a rally to Rs 173 over the medium-term.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - Asian Paints

Asian Paints (Rs 1,809.5): Asian Paints is in a gravity-defying run over the last two decades. The decline in 2008 too did not cause a deep gash in the stock price nor could it impact the positive long-term outlook.

It was one of the first to move to a new life-time high in 2009 and is currently poised over 30 per cent above its 2008 peak.

It is apparent that the stock is in a fresh leg of its long-term bull market since March 2009. Key support for the medium-term is at Rs 1,500. Investors with a long-term perspective can therefore continue to hold the stock with stop at Rs 1,450.

A sideways consolidation between Rs 1,500 and Rs 2,050 for a few months would be construed as positive and will build the platform from which the stock can move to a new peak.

However decline below Rs 1,500 can drag the stock lower to Rs 1,350 or even Rs 1,200. Investors with a short-term investment horizon can hold the stock with a higher stop at Rs 1,640.

Source BL

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Technical analysis - Astec Life

Astec Lifesciences (Rs 45.8): Astec Lifesciences started trading at Rs 85.5 in November 2009. After recording a life-time high at Rs 96 in December that year, the stock has been spiralling lower in to an abyss.

Insufficient history makes it difficult for us to give a long-term opinion on this stock. But it is apparent that it is in an intense down-trend since the beginning of February. Close above Rs 60 is the first signal required to show that the short-term down trend has reversed.

On the other hand we cannot rule out further slide in the days ahead. Investors can therefore divest their holding at current levels and re-invest on a close above Rs 60. Subsequent targets are Rs 65 and Rs 72.

Source BL

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Technical Analysis - 3i Infotech

3i Infotech (Rs 73.6): 3i Infotech had been moving in a range between Rs 75 and Rs 103 since August last year. It declined slightly below the lower boundary of this range during last week and closed rather precariously just below.

Unless the stock climbs above Rs 76 next week there is the possibility of the decline continuing to Rs 64 or Rs 55 in the months ahead. Investors should divest this stock on a move below Rs 68.

Conversely if the stock moves above Rs 75 next week, it will imply that it can progress to Rs 91 or Rs 102 in the medium term.

A weekly close above Rs 112 is needed to make the long-term view positive for this stock. Investors with long-term perspective can buy the stock in declines with stop at Rs 52.

Source : BL

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Technical Analysis - Balrampur Chini

Balrampur Chini (Rs 105.4): This stock is currently in strong medium-term correction, supports from which can bounce up over the ensuing months are Rs 99 and Rs 82. Investors can hold the stock as long as it holds above the second support. More of this stock can also be purchased on reversal from this level, with stop at Rs 80.

Source : BL

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Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

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sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

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Market Khabar 22 Feb 2010

On the back of an unexpected move by the US Fed to hike discount rate, global
markets pared their weekly gains to close on a cautious note during the week
ended.

The Sensex gained 39 points last week, to end at 16,191 and the Nifty gained 18
points to close at 4,844. Market breadth continued to be weak. Renewed selling
from FIIs also dampened the spirits of bulls. Concerns that the government may
rollback some of stimulus packages to bridge fiscal deficit also weighed heavily
on the minds of market players.

Casting their shadow on the markets in the coming week are domestic market
factors like Economic Survey, F&O settlement, Railway Budget and Union Budget.
Watch out for road maps for the rollout of goods service tax (GST) and the new
tax code.

However, low expectations from the Budget may see markets rally if the finance
minister gives some positive surprises. Expect the markets to be highly choppy
and volatile. Key levels to watch on Nifty are 4,950 on the upside and 4,700 on
the downside for spotting trend `change'.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 15,650 and 16,580 for
the Sensex and 4,675 and 5,080 for the Nifty.

If the Budget acts as a `stimulant', expect resistance to the indices on upside
at 16,360 and 16,550 and 4,940 and 5,060, say observers.
In the event of disappointment, markets may slide below recent lows. Brace up
for big roller coaster ride as the Budget season unfolds.

Futures & Options
Robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment even as the open interest
exceeded Rs 1,20,000 crore. Nifty OI PCR fell to 1.05 level indicating build up
of shorts ahead of the Budget week.

Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the region of 4,900 and 4,950 and
find a good support in the region of 4,700 and 4,750. With the Economic Survey
and F&O settlement on the same day and the Union Budget lined up for a day after
the settlement, punters would do well to play `safe' by adopting strangle or
straddle strategy on Nifty to take advantage of directional breakout in the
markets. Addition of new stocks to the F&O list was a pleasant surprise.

Announcement of new fertiliser policy failed to enthuse the punters of
fertiliser stocks. However, industry experts advise buying at lower levels. Risk
aversion and fears of rate hike by RBI triggered fresh wave of selling in realty
counters.

Despite negative concerns over Bharti-Zain deal, analysts say that the move will
make Bharti a true global player warranting a better valuation. Contrarians can
buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 400.

Markets expect some indications on fuel price policy in the Budget. Buy oil
marketing majors IOC, BPCL and HPCL. Rebound in cement and sugar stocks likely
in near term. Many side counters like GVK Power, Aban, HCC, Voltas, Chambal,
Lanco Infra and others have witnessed short build-up in anticipation of
`correction' in markets after budget.

Sharp short covering in select counters not ruled out. Gains indicated in
Educomp, Financial Technologies, Ranbaxy and Cairn. There will be corrections
and crashes in the markets, but markets recover and reward investors.

Stock scan
Swiss Glasscoat Equipments is engaged in the manufacture of glass-lined
equipment such as reactors, process tankers that find use in diverse industries
like dyes, pigments, pharmaceuticals, food processing and chemicals. Turnaround
performance and prospects of takeover by a bigger player like GMM Pfaudler from
the industry triggered interest in the counter. Buy for a speculative target of
Rs 65.

Pix Transmissions is a manufacturer of industrial and automotive belts, hoses,
hose assemblies and end fittings used in power and fluid transmission business.
Recent commissioning of a fully-automated mixing plant and rigid mandrel hose
plant has reportedly improved operating margins. Buy on declines for target
price of Rs 100 in the medium term.

Shakti Pumps is a producer of stainless steel submer-sible pumps, energy saving
submersible motors and booster pumps. The company has set up a new plant at a
special economic zone at Pithampur to increase its exports. Accumulate the stock
during the correction for a target price of Rs 250.

Inclusion of Fortis Healthcare stock for the trading in futures and options
clearly indicates the heightened interest in hospital stocks.
With a very few listed counters in this segment, the interest of fund managers
may get limited to stocks like Apollo Hospitals, Indraprastha Medical and
medical equipment stocks like Siemens Health.

Look out for more opportunities in this recession-proof sector for outperforming
gains.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048

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