Learn2trade and Gain BSE / NSE

Ingeniouis Investor –
Investment Advisory Division of Ravina Consulting.
Intelligent Investment Ideas for Indian Investors has been helping Investors for the last 2 decades having extensive knowledge about the Indian Capital markets.

Ravina Consulting
Ravina Consulting is a Management Consulting firm engaged in providing professional advise to the clients. Intelligent Investor is a Division of Ravina Consulting exclusively focused on providing research based support to enable Intelligent Investors to make wealth from the Financial markets in India. This program is designed with a view to help the Indian investor keen on making money in the market

The operations have started since the boom of 1984 and with our experience of more than 25 years we have perfected the art of giving the best Portfolio Management / Investment Advisory Services.

www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us – www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

COURSE TITLE : ABCs of Stock Market Investing

OBJECTIVES
• Understanding Indian Financial Markets
• BSE – How it functions
• NSE – How it functions
• Commodities Exchange – How it functions
• Foreign Exchange - Basics
• Sectoral Indices
• Global Indices to track
• Technical Analysis
• Long term / Short term investing
• Day traders delight how to win and time the market 1
. Portfolio - Creating & tracking

PROGRAMME CONTENTS
The course has 1 modules consisting of 30 sessions each conducted online of 30 lectures / sessions followed by an assessment. Out of which 15 are theoretical in nature and 15 are practical applications.

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES :
We provide you with tools and explain the techniques to track the market and make money. We have the following investment options :
1. Long term investment – with holding of more than 12 Months
2. Short term investment – with holding of more than 1 month
3. Weekly investment – mostly BTST with holding of 1 week
4. Day trading – how to trade and make money


PARTICIPANTS' PROFILE
This program is designed for everyone who is keen to enter the Indian Stock
markets – B S E or N S E

Qualification :
A candidate wishing to undergo this program should be conversant with English and able to understand the program contents. Candidate should have basic knowledge of working on computers and is work with MS office and familiar with internet browsing.

Method of Delivery
Web-based / Online / telephone one hour for each session. The online sessions will be based on the presentations / study material sent to the candidates at
the time of registration.

Study Material
A well researched and informative set of study material is given to the students. A simple and easy to understand style of reports makes it easy even for the novices to know about the nuances of the Indian Share Market. The Study Material will be sent by hard copy / soft copy.

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas
sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

FnO Strategy - Bear put spread will pay off !

Index Strategy: Bear put spread on Nifty

Srividhya Sivakumar

Well, the Union Budget is over now and with it perhaps also the euphoria. As market participants wake up to the real impact of the budget proposals, it is quite likely that much of initial jubilation may die down. We suggest traders to set a bear put spread on Nifty to benefit from such a weakness. You can do this by buying Nifty March 4,900 put option and simultaneously selling Nifty March 4,800 put. This would result in a net initial debit as the strategy involves buying in the money put as against selling one that is out of money. In this case, you will have to shell out Rs 105 for buying Nifty March 4,900 put, while you will receive Rs 70 when you write Nifty March 4,800 put. On the whole, the spread will cost you Rs 35/share.

You can time the purchase and sale of options depending on the day's market movement to optimise your cost. Note that for the coming week, we expect the markets to trend upwards first before it begins to fall lower.

Maximum profit potential: The maximum profit for this spread will occur when the Nifty moves below the strike price of the sold option, i.e. 4,800. The maximum profit, however, will be limited to the difference between the two strikes minus the net debit paid or the cost of setting the spread. In this case, it will be Rs 65.

Maximum loss potential: When your spread is totally out of money i.e. when Nifty value is higher than the 4,900, the maximum loss that you can suffer will be limited to the net debit paid, Rs 35 – that is the money that was spent initially in setting the bear put spread.

This means in essence you would be taking a maximum risk of Rs 35 to earn a maximum profit of Rs 65. Traders with a slightly more bearish view can tweak the strike price of the sold option lower to 4,700. This will result in a slightly higher risk-return payoff. Traders can also consider going short on Nifty with a stop at 5,025.

When to exit?

Traders should consider booking profits and closing the positions as soon as the underlying trends below the strike price of the sold put option. If you feel that the likelihood of the underlying moving down is low, close the position prematurely.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Elgi Equipments

The extent of diversification has allowed Elgi to maintain growth momentum.

Vidya Bala

Investors with at least a two-three year perspective can consider buying the stock of Elgi Equipments, a manufacturer of air compressors and automobile service station equipment.

Revival in capex in the domestic market, manufacturing /trading presence in high potential developing markets such as China and Brazil and a strong cash position that allows scouting for acquisitions in new markets are factors that favour earnings growth for the company over the medium term.

At the current market price of Rs 80, Elgi's stock trades at 8.5 times its per share earnings for FY-11.

The stock is currently at a steep discount to its bigger peer Ingersoll-Rand; the latter not yet fully out of the slowdown.

Long-term play

We do not expect any significant ramp-up in revenues in the next few quarters, owing to peaking of demand (according to the management) for air compressors used for water wells and the continuing sluggishness in overseas market.

However, given that the industrial business segment has also been contributing actively to revenues and emerging markets such as Brazil and China are likely to buttress sales growth over the long term, Elgi may have to be a buy and hold candidate in one's portfolio.

The stock, at this point, could be a dark horse play; investors can consider buying it in small lots and accumulate on declines linked to broad markets.

Business

Elgi is the market leader in air compressors (over 10 per cent) as well as automobile service station equipment and is also among the larger players in Asia.

Elgi has a very wide customer base, given the diverse application of its products in sectors such as mining, transport, power, railways, oil, textiles, shipbuilding, plastics and electronics, to name a few. It also has all major automobile manufacturers as its customers.

The extent of diversification has allowed Elgi to keep up growth momentum. Even as the capex slowdown hurt capital goods companies in FY-09 resulting in decline in sales/profits, Elgi managed to grow revenues, albeit marginally even as profits remained flat.

However, strong focus on global markets resulted in a slow recovery for the company in the current fiscal. The December quarter results though, have shown the first signs of a revival with all its segments reporting growth. Revenues for this period expanded by 30 per cent, even as profits jumped 70 per cent over a year ago, thanks to a low base and lower raw material costs. Interestingly competitors such as Ingersoll-Rand and Kirloskar Pneumatic are yet to demonstrate similar decisive revival signs. However, not all is well , since the company has admitted that its demand for air compressors in the water wells segment has peaked out, which effectively means that there could be some dent in revenues.

However, pick-up in auto equipment as dealers ramp up their capex, on improved auto sales could make up for the dip in the water wells compressor demand.

Reaching out

Besides, Elgi has utilised the slowdown period to test grounds and ramp up presence in the Brazilian and Chinese markets. In Brazil, where the company's products have for long had takers, the company has set up a wholly-owned subsidiary as a trading unit.

In China, it owns a manufacturing unit and also has trading presence; the company though, may take a longer time to ramp up demand in this market, as it has to compete with local players. Nevertheless, the scope of application for Elgi's products in China, given the latter's massive manufacturing activity, combined with superior technology, is tremendous. This market could, however, take a couple of years, before it contributes significantly to the bottom line, even as revenue flow may kick in early. Elgi products' application in the oil sector has also given it a market in West Asia.

The company has a presence in UAE. This market too, in the near term is likely to remain sluggish. Elgi is in the process of acquiring a European company, which makes compressors. This move too is intended to expand geographically rather than acquire new products, as Elgi's product range, thanks to its joint ventures with many overseas players, is fairly comprehensive.

We suspect this acquisition could come at attractive valuations, given the slowdown in the region. The company has stated that it will not go for any fresh debt, suggesting that internal accruals should meet the acquisition cost. Elgi has traditionally been a debt-free company has also has a lucrative investment book.

Elgi' sales grew at 20 per cent compounded annually (to Rs 595 crore in FY-09) over the last three years, while profits expanded by 25 per cent over this period. Operating profit margins, though healthy at 12 per cent levels, could come under pressure as a result of hike in cost of steel and copper.

While any excise duty hikes in its end product is unlikely to impact margins (as its products, mostly used as inputs by clients for their business enjoy cenvat credit), as they are passed on, whether its own raw material cost hikes will hurt margins, remains to be seen.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Buy Indusind Bank

Mr Romesh Sobti, MD and CEO.

M.V.S Santosh Kumar

One of the turnaround stories in the banking industry, IndusInd Bank continues to be a good investment opportunity for investors with a penchant for risk. We expect the return on equity (ROE) of the bank to improve from 10 per cent in 2008-09 to 17.5 per cent this fiscal, helped by improved net interest margins, better credit growth and operating efficiencies. ROEs even in the current year would have been better but for the equity dilution.

The bank's operating parameters have improved sharply over the past two years with a new management taking over. Consider this. IndusInd Bank's credit-deposit ratio has improved from 67 per cent to 77 per cent in the 21 months since the new management took over. This has aided improvement in the net interest margin to 2.94 per cent for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 from 1.37 per cent in the March quarter of 2008. The cost-income ratio too improved from 67 per cent in March 2008 to 50 per cent in December 2009, even as the net NPA ratio fell from 2.27 per cent to 0.67 per cent during the same time. However, the bank has still a long way to go before it can be comparable with the best in the industry.

While the bank consistently managed more than 90 per cent net profit growth over the last four quarters, this rate of growth may moderate, going forward. An increasing base and treasury losses from hardening interest rates may temper profit growth compared with historical rates.

At the current market price of Rs 149, the stock trades at a price-to-estimated FY11 earnings multiple of 13 and at a price-to-FY11 adjusted book value of 2.6 times. This is at a discount to Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank. High earnings growth may provide justification for this valuation.

Capital adequacy

IndusInd Bank raised Rs 480 core through a QIP issue this fiscal thereby witnessing a 15 per cent equity dilution, giving the bank much needed capital to fund high rate of loan growth.

The capital adequacy of the bank improved to 14.91 per cent in September 30, 2009 from 13.14 per cent on June 30, 2009. The capital adequacy ratio of the bank stood at 13.84 per cent at December 2009. Given the current levels, capital adequacy could be maintained above 12 per cent even if the bank's loan book grows by 30 per cent over the next one year, with the aid of internal accruals. IndusInd Bank also has significant headroom in terms of Tier-II capital raising to support loan book growth. However, the cost of Tier-II capital is expensive. Further equity dilution in 2011-12 cannot be ruled out.

Business

The loan book of the bank grew by 15 per cent compounded annually during the period 2004-09 and 32 per cent as of December 31, 2009. However, the loan book growth over the period 2009-11 may improve to 30 per cent annually, helped by better credit offtake, its commercial vehicle portfolio and retail lending. Around 32 per cent of IndusInd Bank's loans are auto loans with commercial vehicles forming a significant proportion. However, the proportion of these loans has come down from 44 per cent at the end of March 2009. However, with the revival in the auto industry, these loans, coupled with retail loans that have better yields, may form a significant portion of the loan book thereby helping the bank maintain its margins.

Improving NIMs

For the first nine months of the current fiscal (2009-10), the net profit of the bank grew by 158 per cent. Improving margins due to improving credit-deposit ratio, high rate of loan book growth (32 per cent as of December 31, 2009) and re-pricing of the advances led to high levels of profit growth. Helped by branch expansion, the proportion of low cost deposits has also improved to 22.5 per cent from 15 per cent as of March 31, 2008, also reducing the cost of deposits.

With the bank starting to meet most of its priority sector lending targets, it may not be required to invest in low-yielding bonds, which further help improve the margins. NIMs can be maintained at current levels even as the rates rise if the bank manages to improve its CASA and re-prices its loans. The lower proportion of treasury income compared with its peers would also help it survive rising interest rates efficiently. Fee income continues to support profit growth. The ‘other income' component to total net revenues stood at 40 per cent for the nine months of this fiscal.

Asset quality improved

Sequentially, even over the last quarter, the bank improved its provision coverage ratio from 35 per cent to 50 per cent. The bank is positive on improving its provision coverage to 70 per cent by the mandated period. Lower NPAs coupled with high provisions would improve the coverage and also shield the bank against any credit losses going forward. IndusInd Bank's restructured assets are one of the lowest in the banking industry with only 0.36 per cent of the total advances book restructured. While a high proportion of the current NPA is from the two-wheeler and the cars industry; this may fall as the revival in economy improves the credit worthiness of these borrowers.

Few risks

Around 52 per cent of the loans in the book are fixed, which may expose it to interest rate risk. The impact of the base rate implementation could be a bit higher for the bank due to a higher cost of funds and moderate profitability margins.

Source : BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Mahindra Holidays & Resorts

The company is a dominant player in the vacation ownership business.

Srividhya Sivakumar

Shareholders with a long-term perspective can retain their holdings in Mahindra Holidays & Resorts, the leading vacation ownership provider in the country. With a business model highly dependent on the domestic consumption story, the slow uptick in the economy suggests improving prospects for the company. A strong brand equity, multiple sales channel and unique revenue model further fortify its investment appeal.

However, at the current market price of Rs 434, the stock appears fully priced, trading at about 30 times its likely FY-11 per share earnings. While not having any strict comparables and being the market leader do lend room for premium valuations, it appears fairly valued at the current price. Near-term upsides, therefore, may be limited.

Unique model

In the business of vacation ownership, Mahindra Holidays' revenue model entails an upfront payment of the ownership fee with a recurring annual maintenance fee component thereafter.

This provides for higher visibility and a more stable stream of revenues compared to that of pure hospitality players. And unlike the asset-heavy hotel industry, the company does not operate on a capital-intensive business model. It adds to its assets only against the payment received on member additions. As a result, it enjoys strong cash flows and has near-zero debt on its books.

Mahindra Holidays, however, sells a significant majority of its memberships through financing schemes (monthly instalment options) and even securitises a portion of its receivables. While financing the vacation ownerships helps add to its member count, it also complements the revenue stream by way of interest income.

The risk of default is low here considering the overall profile of its member base — consisting of mostly employed professionals who are reasonably sound financially. And since MHRIL continues to hold the assets, the impact of defaults, if any, would only be negligible.

Besides, that it has so far managed to operate with near negligible rates of default lends confidence. That said, it still remains to be seen how the company would manage member additions in an increasing interest rate regime.

High interest rates tend to curb discretionary spending by consumers and so can pose a threat to member additions. This is especially relevant in the case of MHRIL since its business operates on the difference between the interests its pays to banks and the interest rate in-built into the EMI schedule of its members.

Growing membership enrolments — which is the key driver for future growth — at historical growth rates may, therefore, not be as easy (34 per cent compounded rate over the last four years).

Financials

Even though the company has a diverse source of income, its key contribution still comes from member additions only. Of the total membership fee charged, the company books nearly 60 per cent of that in the same year, while the rest is spread over the life of the membership (typically 25 years for the flagship Club Mahindra product) as entitlement fees (annuity income). It also charges an annual subscription fees over the life of the membership.

Over the last four years, Mahindra Holidays has grown its revenues and profits at a compounded annual growth rate of about 40 per cent and 76 per cent, respectively. In the same period, both its operating and profit margins have expanded significantly to about 34 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.

For the nine-months ended December 2009, the company managed to grow its revenues by about 18 per cent. Profits surpassed last fiscal's full year earnings helped by a slew of cost-control measures, which helped expand the operating margins by about 4 percentage points to 38 per cent.

The company, however, is required to spend considerably towards sales and marketing exercises (its largest cost component), as member additions hold the key to its growth.

While bringing down the sales and marketing expenses last quarter helped it better its operational performance, it may pose a threat to member additions if the cost component is brought down drastically. This cost component therefore may have to be monitored vis-à-vis member additions in the coming quarters.

But to its credit, MHRIL enjoys a fairly strong brand loyalty; over 35 per cent of the vacation ownerships sold in 2009 came through member referrals.

Health check since IPO

The company had raised roughly Rs 177 crore through its public issue in June last year for funding the proposed addition to its room inventory (capex to extend up to FY11).

As against 1,105 rooms in FY-09, the company had, as of December 2009, created an inventory of 1,403 rooms.

Member additions in the nine months from FY-09, however, have been lower than its yearly average, growing by about 17 per cent; it now has 109110 members as against 92,825 vacation owners in FY-09.

The member per room ratio too has improved, decreasing from 84 in FY-09 to 78 members per room now. And with average occupancies hovering around 75 per cent, the proposed addition to room inventory will further help the spread. It plans to expand its property in Coorg, Ooty and Ashtamudi and set up of new ones in Tungi and Theog.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Buy Piramal Health

Investors with a long-term perspective can consider accumulating the stock of Piramal Healthcare. A strong presence in the domestic pharmaceutical market, established relationships with several global pharma majors, and its firming hold over the high-margin inhalation anaesthetics space underscore our recommendation.

While the restrained growth in CRAMS (Contract Research and Manufacturing Services) business so far this year could mar the company's overall growth picture, signs of restocking by global pharma majors suggest that a revival may be in the offing. With innovator companies under increasing pressure to manage costs, the low-cost, high-quality offering of domestic CRAMS companies may not be easy to ignore.

Valuations too appear reasonable. At current market price of Rs 397, the stock discounts its estimated FY11 per share earning by about 15 times. Piramal's increasing domestic market presence offers it a considerable long-term growth potential. The company has been improving its market share going by its better-than-market growth in six out of the seven last quarters. While growing competition, with MNCs too entering the fray, could throw up challenges, Piramal's large field force and growing focus on tier-II and semi-urban cities will provide it an edge. New product launches (26 so far this year) and focus on lifestyle products could further complement growth.

For CRAMS, the consolidation in the global pharma landscape, in addition to restructuring of manufacturing operations at Piramal's end, appear to have cast a cloud on the segment's near-term prospects. For the nine months ended December 2009, the CRAMS business shrank by about 12 per cent. In that too, while the business from overseas was impacted significantly due to the closure of its Huddersfield plant (which has been moved to India), the India operations managed a growth of 27 per cent. The management expects the segment to get back on the growth track by next year; its strong relationship with other MNC clients, as also the long-term contract with Pfizer giving it a fillip. The other business segment that offers a significant growth potential is the global critical-care segment. Piramal now has the intellectual property to manufacture inhalation anaesthetics across the pyramid, thanks to its last year's acquisition of the US-based Minrad International. The inhalation anaesthetics present an addressable market of about $435 million in the US.

Srividhya Sivakumar

BL Research Bureau

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - BSE Outlook 2nd March 2010

Sensex (16,429.5)

The positives and negatives of the Union Budget balanced themselves to have little impact on stock prices. But Pranab Da, in a very subtle way, pleased market participants by giving them what they wanted the most – a clear plan to revert back to fiscal prudence. It may be recalled that not outlining a road-map for curtailing fiscal deficit was one of the prime reasons for the 870 points plunge in Sensex on the Budget day 2009.

Higher disposable income in the hands of the small investor through changes in income-tax slabs was a bonus. Since the Government needs a buoyant stock market to meet its colossal disinvestment target of Rs 40,000 crore, market is unlikely to face any unpleasant policy changes, at least in the ensuing months.

FIIs were net buyers on Friday though they have net sold almost Rs 2,000 crore so far this month according to BSE data. Domestic institutions continued to sell through last week. Volumes remained buoyant through the week and spiked sharply higher in the budget session. Expiry of the February contracts has resulted in the open interest coming down to a more sedate Rs 88,000 crore.

There was hardly any movement in the Sensex in the first four sessions, as the index oscillated in a very narrow range between 16,200 and 16,300. Friday's surge led the index to the intra-week peak of 16,669 but it could not sustain there for long and ended the week below 16,500.

We had outlined three possible routes that the Sensex could take on the Budget day last week. The index followed the second path -unable to move beyond 17,000 and closing the week at 16,500. The Budget day is a non-event as far as its impact on the market trend is concerned since it has altered neither the medium or the short-term trend.

It is interesting to note the similarity of patterns in the charts of all the global benchmarks. The medium term trend is down in all the indices since the mid-January peak. A mild pull-back is currently on since the beginning of February. This pull-back has however not progressed sufficiently to signal the end of the January correction.

To put it differently, all global equity markets are moving in tandem and the fate of Indian equities are strongly interwoven with that of the other markets. Since the Union Budget has not been able to scratch even the surface of the market trend, it is back to watching Greece, US, China et al to decipher where we are headed.

The medium term trend in the Sensex continues to be down and inability to move past 17,000 keeps open the risk of the third leg of the down-move from 17,790 peak unfolding that drags the index down to 15,347 or 14,530 in the days ahead. The 200 DMA at 15,910 is the critical support that most market participants would be watching in the event of a decline. A strong close above 17,000 is required to negate the current bearish medium-term view for the index.

The short-term trend in the Sensex is up. But since it is nearing key resistances at 16,775 where the 50 DMA is also poised, investors ought to stay cautious. The index could get back to a lacklustre state in the week ahead and decline to 16,280 or 16,040. The near term view will turn overtly negative on a close below the second target. Resistances for the week would be at 16,670, 16,800 and 17,000.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Nifty Outlook

Nifty (4,922.3)

The Nifty too was confined in a narrow band between 4,850 and 4,900 in the sessions preceding the Budget before Friday's spurt took the index higher to 4,992. That the index was unable to move past 5,000 on the Budget day implies that the medium-term trend in this index continues to be down. If the third leg of the downtrend from the 5,310 peak unfolds now, it can drag the index to 4,599 or 4,357. The 200-day moving average at 4,680 would be the minimum target for a decline. Close above 5,070 is needed to mitigate this bearish view.

The short-term trend in Nifty is up since the trough at 4,675. But it is possible that this uptrend ended on Friday and the index could now decline to 4,870 or even 4,796. Traders can initiate short positions in rallies with stop at 5,025. Target on a move above 5,000 is 5,067.

Global Cues

Globally equities had a tough weak as worse than expected economic readings from the US and resurfacing of the Greece sovereign debt issue dragged stock prices lower. European and Latin American indices end the week 1 to 3 per cent lower. Asian benchmarks were relatively stronger and many of them such as KLSE Composite, Nikkei, Philippines Composite, Shanghai Composite and so on ended the week marginally in the green.

CBOE VIX spiked to 22.6 on Thursday before ending the week down at 19.5 implying that investors continue in a sanguine frame of mind. The dollar index appears to have formed a short-term peak at 81.4 and that should give some relief to emerging market equities and commodities.

The Dow could not move past the key short-term resistance at 10,400 and reversed mildly from there. Support for the week would be available at 10,200 and 10,100. Decline below the second support would mean that the downtrend from January 19 peak is continuing. Conversely rally above 10,400 would send the index to a new 2010 high.

The S&P 500 has also recorded a hanging man pattern in the weekly chart that is a reversal pattern. Key resistance for this index is at 1,110 and it is currently struggling to move over this. The week ahead is critical for defining the short-term trajectory for this index.

— Lokeshwarri S. K.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Fortis Healthcare

Fortis Healthcare (Rs 156): Fortis Healthcare has key long-term resistance in the zone between Rs 120 and Rs 130 and it was struggling to move past this zone till the last week of December 2009.

In our review of this stock in December last year, we had indicated that an ascending triangle pattern was forming that had the target of Rs 170.

The stock broke out of the upper boundary of this triangle pattern in December last year and recorded the recent peak at Rs 162.4 on February 17.

Investors with a short to medium-term perspective can hold with stop at Rs 132. If this level holds, investors can expect a rally to Rs 173 over the medium-term.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Asian Paints

Asian Paints (Rs 1,809.5): Asian Paints is in a gravity-defying run over the last two decades. The decline in 2008 too did not cause a deep gash in the stock price nor could it impact the positive long-term outlook.

It was one of the first to move to a new life-time high in 2009 and is currently poised over 30 per cent above its 2008 peak.

It is apparent that the stock is in a fresh leg of its long-term bull market since March 2009. Key support for the medium-term is at Rs 1,500. Investors with a long-term perspective can therefore continue to hold the stock with stop at Rs 1,450.

A sideways consolidation between Rs 1,500 and Rs 2,050 for a few months would be construed as positive and will build the platform from which the stock can move to a new peak.

However decline below Rs 1,500 can drag the stock lower to Rs 1,350 or even Rs 1,200. Investors with a short-term investment horizon can hold the stock with a higher stop at Rs 1,640.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical analysis - Astec Life

Astec Lifesciences (Rs 45.8): Astec Lifesciences started trading at Rs 85.5 in November 2009. After recording a life-time high at Rs 96 in December that year, the stock has been spiralling lower in to an abyss.

Insufficient history makes it difficult for us to give a long-term opinion on this stock. But it is apparent that it is in an intense down-trend since the beginning of February. Close above Rs 60 is the first signal required to show that the short-term down trend has reversed.

On the other hand we cannot rule out further slide in the days ahead. Investors can therefore divest their holding at current levels and re-invest on a close above Rs 60. Subsequent targets are Rs 65 and Rs 72.

Source BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - 3i Infotech

3i Infotech (Rs 73.6): 3i Infotech had been moving in a range between Rs 75 and Rs 103 since August last year. It declined slightly below the lower boundary of this range during last week and closed rather precariously just below.

Unless the stock climbs above Rs 76 next week there is the possibility of the decline continuing to Rs 64 or Rs 55 in the months ahead. Investors should divest this stock on a move below Rs 68.

Conversely if the stock moves above Rs 75 next week, it will imply that it can progress to Rs 91 or Rs 102 in the medium term.

A weekly close above Rs 112 is needed to make the long-term view positive for this stock. Investors with long-term perspective can buy the stock in declines with stop at Rs 52.

Source : BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Technical Analysis - Balrampur Chini

Balrampur Chini (Rs 105.4): This stock is currently in strong medium-term correction, supports from which can bounce up over the ensuing months are Rs 99 and Rs 82. Investors can hold the stock as long as it holds above the second support. More of this stock can also be purchased on reversal from this level, with stop at Rs 80.

Source : BL

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Market Khabar 22 Feb 2010

On the back of an unexpected move by the US Fed to hike discount rate, global
markets pared their weekly gains to close on a cautious note during the week
ended.

The Sensex gained 39 points last week, to end at 16,191 and the Nifty gained 18
points to close at 4,844. Market breadth continued to be weak. Renewed selling
from FIIs also dampened the spirits of bulls. Concerns that the government may
rollback some of stimulus packages to bridge fiscal deficit also weighed heavily
on the minds of market players.

Casting their shadow on the markets in the coming week are domestic market
factors like Economic Survey, F&O settlement, Railway Budget and Union Budget.
Watch out for road maps for the rollout of goods service tax (GST) and the new
tax code.

However, low expectations from the Budget may see markets rally if the finance
minister gives some positive surprises. Expect the markets to be highly choppy
and volatile. Key levels to watch on Nifty are 4,950 on the upside and 4,700 on
the downside for spotting trend `change'.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 15,650 and 16,580 for
the Sensex and 4,675 and 5,080 for the Nifty.

If the Budget acts as a `stimulant', expect resistance to the indices on upside
at 16,360 and 16,550 and 4,940 and 5,060, say observers.
In the event of disappointment, markets may slide below recent lows. Brace up
for big roller coaster ride as the Budget season unfolds.

Futures & Options
Robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment even as the open interest
exceeded Rs 1,20,000 crore. Nifty OI PCR fell to 1.05 level indicating build up
of shorts ahead of the Budget week.

Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the region of 4,900 and 4,950 and
find a good support in the region of 4,700 and 4,750. With the Economic Survey
and F&O settlement on the same day and the Union Budget lined up for a day after
the settlement, punters would do well to play `safe' by adopting strangle or
straddle strategy on Nifty to take advantage of directional breakout in the
markets. Addition of new stocks to the F&O list was a pleasant surprise.

Announcement of new fertiliser policy failed to enthuse the punters of
fertiliser stocks. However, industry experts advise buying at lower levels. Risk
aversion and fears of rate hike by RBI triggered fresh wave of selling in realty
counters.

Despite negative concerns over Bharti-Zain deal, analysts say that the move will
make Bharti a true global player warranting a better valuation. Contrarians can
buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 400.

Markets expect some indications on fuel price policy in the Budget. Buy oil
marketing majors IOC, BPCL and HPCL. Rebound in cement and sugar stocks likely
in near term. Many side counters like GVK Power, Aban, HCC, Voltas, Chambal,
Lanco Infra and others have witnessed short build-up in anticipation of
`correction' in markets after budget.

Sharp short covering in select counters not ruled out. Gains indicated in
Educomp, Financial Technologies, Ranbaxy and Cairn. There will be corrections
and crashes in the markets, but markets recover and reward investors.

Stock scan
Swiss Glasscoat Equipments is engaged in the manufacture of glass-lined
equipment such as reactors, process tankers that find use in diverse industries
like dyes, pigments, pharmaceuticals, food processing and chemicals. Turnaround
performance and prospects of takeover by a bigger player like GMM Pfaudler from
the industry triggered interest in the counter. Buy for a speculative target of
Rs 65.

Pix Transmissions is a manufacturer of industrial and automotive belts, hoses,
hose assemblies and end fittings used in power and fluid transmission business.
Recent commissioning of a fully-automated mixing plant and rigid mandrel hose
plant has reportedly improved operating margins. Buy on declines for target
price of Rs 100 in the medium term.

Shakti Pumps is a producer of stainless steel submer-sible pumps, energy saving
submersible motors and booster pumps. The company has set up a new plant at a
special economic zone at Pithampur to increase its exports. Accumulate the stock
during the correction for a target price of Rs 250.

Inclusion of Fortis Healthcare stock for the trading in futures and options
clearly indicates the heightened interest in hospital stocks.
With a very few listed counters in this segment, the interest of fund managers
may get limited to stocks like Apollo Hospitals, Indraprastha Medical and
medical equipment stocks like Siemens Health.

Look out for more opportunities in this recession-proof sector for outperforming
gains.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas
sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Learn2trade and Gain BSE / NSE

Ravina Consulting
Ravina Consulting is a Management Consulting firm engaged in providing professional advise to the clients. Intelligent Investor is a Division of Ravina Consulting exclusively focused on providing research based support to enable Intelligent Investors to make wealth from the Financial markets in India. This program is designed with a view to help the Indian investor keen on making money
in the markets

Intelligent Investor –
Investment Advisory Division of Ravina Consulting.
Intelligent Investment Ideas for Indian Investors has been helping Investors for the last 2 decades having extensive knowledge about the Indian Capital markets.

The operations have started since the boom of 1984 and with our experience of more than 25 years we have perfected the art of giving the best Portfolio Management / Investment Advisory Services.

www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us – www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

COURSE TITLE : ABCs of Stock Market Investing

OBJECTIVES
• Understanding Indian Financial Markets
• BSE – How it functions
• NSE – How it functions
• Commodities Exchange – How it functions
• Foreign Exchange - Basics
• Sectoral Indices
• Global Indices to track
• Technical Analysis
• Long term / Short term investing
• Day traders delight how to win and time the market 1
. Portfolio - Creating & tracking

PROGRAMME CONTENTS
The course has 1 modules consisting of 30 sessions each conducted online of 30 lectures / sessions followed by an assessment. Out of which 15 are theoretical in nature and 15 are practical applications.

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES :
We provide you with tools and explain the techniques to track the market and make money. We have the following investment options :
1. Long term investment – with holding of more than 12 Months
2. Short term investment – with holding of more than 1 month
3. Weekly investment – mostly BTST with holding of 1 week
4. Day trading – how to trade and make money


PARTICIPANTS' PROFILE
This program is designed for everyone who is keen to enter the Indian Stock
markets – B S E or N S E

Qualification :
A candidate wishing to undergo this program should be conversant with English and able to understand the program contents. Candidate should have basic knowledge of working on computers and is work with MS office and familiar with internet browsing.

Method of Delivery
Web-based / Online / telephone one hour for each session. The online sessions will be based on the presentations / study material sent to the candidates at
the time of registration.

Study Material
A well researched and informative set of study material is given to the students. A simple and easy to understand style of reports makes it easy even for the novices to know about the nuances of the Indian Share Market. The Study Material will be sent by hard copy / soft copy.

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Learn2trade and Gain BSE / NSE

Ravina Consulting
Ravina Consulting is a Management Consulting firm engaged in providing professional advise to the clients. Intelligent Investor is a Division of Ravina Consulting exclusively focused on providing research based support to enable Intelligent Investors to make wealth from the Financial markets in India. This program is designed with a view to help the Indian investor keen on making money
in the markets

Intelligent Investor –
Investment Advisory Division of Ravina Consulting.
Intelligent Investment Ideas for Indian Investors has been helping Investors for the last 2 decades having extensive knowledge about the Indian Capital markets.

The operations have started since the boom of 1984 and with our experience of more than 25 years we have perfected the art of giving the best Portfolio Management / Investment Advisory Services.

www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com
Follow us – www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

COURSE TITLE : ABCs of Stock Market Investing

OBJECTIVES
• Understanding Indian Financial Markets
• BSE – How it functions
• NSE – How it functions
• Commodities Exchange – How it functions
• Foreign Exchange - Basics
• Sectoral Indices
• Global Indices to track
• Technical Analysis
• Long term / Short term investing
• Day traders delight how to win and time the market 1
. Portfolio - Creating & tracking

PROGRAMME CONTENTS
The course has 1 modules consisting of 30 sessions each conducted online of 30 lectures / sessions followed by an assessment. Out of which 15 are theoretical in nature and 15 are practical applications.

TOOLS & TECHNIQUES :
We provide you with tools and explain the techniques to track the market and make money. We have the following investment options :
1. Long term investment – with holding of more than 12 Months
2. Short term investment – with holding of more than 1 month
3. Weekly investment – mostly BTST with holding of 1 week
4. Day trading – how to trade and make money


PARTICIPANTS' PROFILE
This program is designed for everyone who is keen to enter the Indian Stock
markets – B S E or N S E

Qualification :
A candidate wishing to undergo this program should be conversant with English and able to understand the program contents. Candidate should have basic knowledge of working on computers and is work with MS office and familiar with internet browsing.

Method of Delivery
Web-based / Online / telephone one hour for each session. The online sessions will be based on the presentations / study material sent to the candidates at
the time of registration.

Study Material
A well researched and informative set of study material is given to the students. A simple and easy to understand style of reports makes it easy even for the novices to know about the nuances of the Indian Share Market. The Study Material will be sent by hard copy / soft copy.

For a Demo Class contact us now !

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Learn2trade and Gain BSE / NSE

Ingenioius Investor – Investment Advisory Division of Ravina Consulting. Intelligent Investment Ideas for Indian Investors has been helping Investors for the last 2 decades having extensive knowledge about the Indian Capital markets. Ravina Consulting is a Management Consulting firm engaged in providing professional advise to the clients. Intelligent Investor is a Division of Ravina Consulting exclusively focused on providing research based support to enable Intelligent Investors to make wealth from the Financial markets in India. This program is designed with a view to help the Indian investor keen on making money in the markets The operations have started since the boom of 1984 and with our experience of more than 25 years we have perfected the art of giving the best Portfolio Management / Investment Advisory Services. www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us – www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor COURSE TITLE : Learn2trade and Earn / ABCs of Stock Market Investing OBJECTIVES • Understanding Indian Financial Markets • BSE – How it functions • NSE – How it functions • Commodities Exchange – How it functions • Foreign Exchange - Basics • Sectoral Indices • Global Indices to track • Technical Analysis • Long term / Short term investing • Day traders delight how to win and time the market 1 . Portfolio - Creating & tracking PROGRAMME CONTENTS The course has 1 modules consisting of 30 sessions each conducted online of 30 lectures / sessions followed by an assessment. Out of which 15 are theoretical in nature and 15 are practical applications. TOOLS & TECHNIQUES : We provide you with tools and explain the techniques to track the market and make money. We have the following investment options : 1. Long term investment – with holding of more than 12 Months 2. Short term investment – with holding of more than 1 month 3. Weekly investment – mostly BTST with holding of 1 week 4. Day trading – how to trade and make money PARTICIPANTS' PROFILE This program is designed for everyone who is keen to enter the Indian Stock markets – B S E or N S E Qualification : A candidate wishing to undergo this program should be conversant with English and able to understand the program contents. Candidate should have basic knowledge of working on computers and is work with MS office and familiar with internet browsing. Method of Delivery Web-based / Online / telephone one hour for each session. The online sessions will be based on the presentations / study material sent to the candidates at the time of registration. Study Material A well researched and informative set of study material is given to the students. A simple and easy to understand style of reports makes it easy even for the novices to know about the nuances of the Indian Share Market. The Study Material will be sent by hard copy / soft copy. For a Demo Class contact us now ! Ravina Consulting B-429 Mahaveer Tuscan Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560084 www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com intellinvestor@gmail.com or call 08105737966

Market Khabar 11 Jan 2010

The first week of 2010 started off nicely for the markets with indices closing near 22-month-high.

On the BSE, the Sensex ended 0.43 per cent or 75 points higher at 17,540 and the Nifty on the NSE inched up by 0.84 per cent or 44 points to 5,245. However, the real action was in midcap and smallcap stocks, both the BSE Midcap and smallcap indices moved up by 3.4 per cent and 4.1 per cent.

Strong FII buying and positive comments from the Prime Minister that India will return to 9-10 per cent growth rate kept the sentiment positive. Whether the market can sustain and bui-ld on last year’s gains will depend on corporate earnings, the government’s willingness to keep reforms on fast track and no negative surprises from global markets. Near-term direction of markets will depend on third quarter earnings season. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 17,160-18,000 for the Sensex and 5,080-5500 for the Nifty. Immediate supports exist at 17,320 and 17,080 and 5,160 and 5,080.

Expect resistance to the indices on upside at 17,740 and 17,960 and 5,330 and 5,420. The directional movement could be negative in short term, if the indices fall below 17,200 and 5,175. The movement of indices in narrow range clearly indicates that individual stocks would do better than the indices.

Knowing what stocks to avoid can be as important as knowing what to buy. No stock is perfect; every stock will have some drawback.

FUTURES & OPTIONS

The January series has started on a quiet note marked by low volumes and low volatility. Sentiment indicators like implied volatility, put/call ratio, open interest and VIX indicate possible increase in volatility again.

Punters advice strangle strategy — Buy Nifty5300 strike call option and Nifty5200 strike put option to take advantage of directional breakout after the onset of results season.

A strong rupee triggered selling pressure in IT stocks. However, the results of Infosys will set the tone for the sector in the week ahead. Savvy players are buying into Wipro, OFSS, Tech Mahindra, Moser Baer and Mphasis. Buy Mphasis for a target price of Rs 825.

The profit booking in auto stocks likely to be short lived. Use sharp declines to accumulate Ashok Leyland and M&M. Metal and cement stocks are likely to continue their upward journey after a mild sell off.

Ahead of RBI’s credit policy review, heightened activity indicated in banking counters. Buy private banks like Axis Bank and Kotak Bank for short term gains. Realty stocks are beginning to show good strength. Hold Unitech, IBREL and DLF for gains.

Among the side counters, India Infoline, Petronet LNG, Sun TV, Nagarjuna Const. and HCC are good for a target of Rs 175, Rs 90, Rs 390, Rs 195 and Rs 185. Sebi’s plan to standardise lot sizes for F&O stocks would make it convenient for the traders to remember lot sizes and improve volumes in the derivative segment.

STOCK SCAN

Mundra Port and SEZ runs India’s largest private port, whose cargo traffic is gro-wing at four times the speed of other major ports. The real trump card is the 100 sq km industrial zone, where Mundra is attracting factories such as Alstom-Bharat Forge JV for power equipment and others that will provide the port’s future traffic. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 900 in next few months.

Escorts is tur-ning out to be a good turnaround candidate after it focused on tractor and construction machinery segments. To tap good opportunities from railways, the company has introduced four new railway products for coaches and wagons. Buy for a target price of Rs 225.

Minda Industries designs, develops and manufactures switches and batteries for 2/3/4 wheelers and off-road vehicles. It enjoys more than 70 per cent market share for switches in the two- and three-wheeler segment and is amongst the top few globally. Buy only on declines to Rs 240 for a target price of Rs 400.

Autoline Industries supplies sheet metal components, sub-assemblies and assemblies for large OEMs in the automobile industry. Buy for target price of Rs 200.

ZF Steering manufactures, and assembles mechanical steering gears, hydraulic power steering gears and other gear assemblies. A sharp increase in exports and a robust demand from domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) augur well for the company. Buy for a long term target price of Rs 500.

Shrewd market players are accumulating BGR Energy, Sunil Hitech, Ramkrishna Forgings, Solectron EM and Indian Hume Pipes. Sharp gains indicated from current levels in next few months.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Market Khabar 04 Jan 2010

Buoyed by positive statements from the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and
the finance minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, that economic growth would
accelerate, markets bid farewell to year 2009 on optimistic note.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex rose 104 points to end at 17,465
and the Nifty on the NSE gained 23 points closing at 5,201. Midcap and smallcap
counters were in limelight on renewed speculative buying interest.

Analysts expect PSU firms to hog limelight in the first half of 2010 since the
government is expected to go ahead with disinvestment policy aggressively. Near
term focus will be on the third quarter earnings numbers of biggies. Events to
watch in the week ahead are new trading hours and listing of JSW Energy.

Chartists predict a trading range of 17,120-17,840 for the Sensex and
5,050-5,440 for the Nifty. Expect resistance to indices at 17.680 and 17,860 and
5,280 and 5,360. Last week's lows are good support levels for the near term. You
can go bearish only if the Sensex trades below 17,000-level on closing basis.

After the hyper volatility seen in last two years, even the most practiced
soothsayer will find it difficult to make detailed predictions for the next two
years.

Optimists hope that the Sensex will touch 25,000-level in its silver jubilee
year 2010. Buy good standard stocks that have stood the test of time. Buy
weakness and sell strength. Be just as willing to sell as you are to buy
.
Futures & Options
Reflecting the prevailing optimism, healthy rollovers were seen in the
derivatives segment.

Sentiment indicators like open interest, put/call ratio, implied volatility and
VIX indicate high volatility in the coming days. Protect profits with trailing
stops.

Stock futures looking good for positive gains are Ashok Leyland, Bharat Forge,
Biocon, Cairn, Cummins, Hindalco, Indian Hotels, Indusind Bank, India Cements,
Opto Circuits, Praj Inds, Tata Steel and Unitech. From the PSU pack BEL, BEML,
ONGC, NLC, Nalco and NMDC look good for short term. Expect spurt in metals and
cement stocks on reports of price increases. Stay invested for further gains.

Punters tip Tata Steel and Hindalco for Rs 700 and Rs 200 respectively. Ahead of
Q3 numbers IT stocks are expected to attract some buying. Concentrate on midcaps
advice industry watchers.
Use present weakness to buy smaller PSU banks such as Vijaya Bank, and Andhra
Bank.

Select FIIs are reportedly turning bullish on realty. Buy Unitech and DLF for
short-term targets of Rs 96 and Rs 395. Renewed buying indicated in capital
goods counters. Buy on declines BHEL, L&T, Voltas and Crompton Greaves. Don't
take advice from uninformed people, they know no more than you about the market.
Don't try to outguess the market.
Stock scan
Year 2009 was macro-issue based with indices swinging to news flow like IIP
numbers, revival in GDP growth, but Year 2010 will be stock specific.

Watch out for turnaround stories, companies associated with domestic consumption
and investment cycle and news on reforms in financial sector spot multibaggers.
Factors that can affect the markets negatively are any sudden or sharp
withdrawal of the stimulus packages, failure of Monsoon again and big bang
negative news from the US.

Some of the top picks from the frontline counters for Year 2010 are:
After the lau-nch of services by Uninor, the visibility of value in the telecom
business and debt restructuring could give Unitech a head start in execution
scale up, helping it to improve the balance sheet quickly. A new property cycle
may bring back demand for Unitech stock. Buy at current levels for a target
price of Rs 150.

Riding the new commodity cycle, Tata Steel Europe (Corus) may surprise
inv-estors in terms of capacity utilisation and profits. Turnaround of
operations and robust demand in India may see Tata Steel perform like Tata
Motors did in the past year. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 1,250.

Bogged down by the court cases, Ambani companies were significant
underperformers in the year ended. Post Supreme Court judgment on gas dispute,
analysts expect RIL's GRMs to improve as global demand for oil rebounds, it
could see strong growth in E&P division.

Reliance Infrastructure's power distribution business may witness quantum jump,
Strong growth in EPC business and slated to be largest player in road projects
in next two years. Once the dispute was resolved, market players feel the Ambani
brothers may resume their old game for market capitalisation and drive the
indices to new highs.
Top picks from the mid cap segment are Pantaloon Retail, Titan Inds, Fortis
Healthcare, Bilcare, Jyothi Structures, Bajaj Finserve, Greaves Cotton, Godrej
Consumer, Gujarat Apollo, Ipca Labs, and NHPC.

Source - deccan.com

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.

Bought to you by :

Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.429 Mahavir Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048

Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com
Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Market Khabar 24 August 2009

Spooked by the sharp fall in Chinese stocks, concerns over the impact of drought on economy and the spread of swine flu, markets had started on very weak note during the week ended.
However, positive global cues helped markets recover modestly during the later part of the week ended.

On the BSE, the Sensex shed 171 points to close at 15,241 and the Nifty on the NSE ended 51 points lower at 4,529. BSE Smallcap index posted positive 0.8 per cent gains, reflecting the ‘trickle down’ effect of the rally. A renewed selling pressure from FIIs was offset by a steady buying from domestic institutions.

US regulators’ deal with Swiss bank major UBS may trigger flow of hot money from tax havens to India through the P-Note route, feel analysts. Weekend positives like a strong rally in the US markets triggered by a statement from US Fed chief, Mr Bernanke, that the US economy is ‘near’ to recovery may see Indian market open ‘gap up’ on Monday.

Barring any unforeseen global scares such as last week’s red dragon, markets are likely to consolidate in a broad band at current levels till second quarter’s results season. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 14,800 and 15,650 for the Sensex and 4,380 and 4,680 for the Nifty.

Immediate supports for the indices are at 14,880 and 14,640 and 4,440 and 4,350. Expect resistance to the indices at 15,480 and 15,640 and 4,620 and 4,700. If indices manage to scale the 52-week high of 16,000 and 4,720, expect and euphoric trading. Investors are cautioned against falling into ‘booby traps’ laid by operators.

Buy good standard stocks that have stood the test of time. Remember that good stocks always come back.

SATTA GUPSHUP
* Tata Coffee’s big ticket acquisition — Eight O’Clo-ck Coffee — has begun paying dividends. The brand now contributes nearly 75 per cent of the turnover. Buy at current levels for long term target of Rs 400.

* Himatsingka Siede specialises in textile design and manufacturing of a variety of silk yarns. Restructuring benefits and rewards from the Hassan SEZ unit were evident in its Q1 performance. Buy on declines for a price target of Rs 60.

* GEI Industrial Systems is one of the leading manufacturers of air-cooled heat exchangers and steam condensers for oil and refinery, power and gas compression businesses. It has allotted equity to BanyanTree Growth at Rs 75. Stay invested for a target price of Rs 120 in medium term.

* Sunil Hitech is one of the fast growing EPS contractors. Buoyancy in power and steel industrues have helped the company pile up huge order book. Buy for a target price of Rs 225.

* Poly Medicure is manufacturer of medical devices. Its products have approvals for developed markets such as the US and Europe also. The growth of the healthcare sector and need for quality medical devices have helped the company grow at a rapid pace. Excellent Q1 results make the stock a good bet for a price target of Rs 175.

F & O
Volumes during the week ended witnessed an inverse relationship with the movement of the indices. Volumes were rising when the markets fell and vice-versa implying that market players were looking for buying opportunities at every fall.

A good rollover of long positions was seen in both index and stock futures. Nifty5000 strike Sept call option has attracted good buying interest. Punters may buy Nifty4800 strike Sept call option for unexpected gains.

Option activity indicates a strong support for Nifty between 4,350 and 4,400 and a resistance between 4,650 and 4,700. The buying interest is also seen in capital goods and select auto and banking counters.

Buy Maruti and M&M for short covering gains. Smaller PSU banks like Allahabad, Vijaya Bank and others are tipped for good gains. Among the private banks Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Indusind Bank look good for further gains.

Sell off in metals to be short lived. Buy Jindal Steel and Power, Sterlite and Tata Steel for targets of Rs 3,450, Rs 675 and Rs 460.

Buy Aban Offshore, Punj Lloyd and CESC above Rs 1,200, Rs 244 and Rs 340 for target prices of Rs 1250, Rs 260 and Rs 375 respectively. Technical patterns in Aurobindo, Orchid and Ranbaxy indicate surprising returns.

Action in midcap realty and IT to continue for some more time, say punters. Cement, FMCG and sugar may ‘stage’ comeback on some spirited buying.

Among the stock futures, a long build-up seen in Axis Bank, Aurobindo, BHEL, DLF, GAIL, HDIL, Idea, ICICI Bank, IVRCL Infra, Indiabulls Realty, HCL, Ranbaxy, Yes Bank and Welspun Gujurat.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com