Metal Stocks - Best buys !!

The metals sector has been facing a tough time, partly due to the correction in global commodities prices and also because of certain domestic developments like the ongoing CBI probe into the mining industry in Karnataka.

Many frontline metal stocks like JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Sesa Goa, Hindalco and Sterlite, to name just a few, have seen a severe contraction in prices. What has further compounded the problem is the ongoing crisis in the Euro Zone and the fear that China's metal demand may slow.

It is tough to say which metals segment — copper, steel or aluminium — would take a greater hit than the others or whether the producers catering to domestic demand would be spared from demand recession compared to companies like Tata Steel which has a significant presence in European markets.

But for long term investors, it would be tempting to know whether the current meltdown in metal stocks make them hot investments, even in the likelihood of further price correction in these shares. All the five metal stocks mentioned earlier have suffered serious erosion in value and three of them have seen their Price to Earnings (PE) ratio come down to single digits.

The extent of carnage the sector has suffered could be judged by taking a look at today's NSE closing prices compared to their year's high (given in brackets):

Sesa Goa - Rs 204.25 (Rs 383.65); Jindal Steel and Power – Rs 480 ( Rs 755.50); Tata Steel - Rs 420.70 ( Rs 737); Hindalco - Rs 126.10 (Rs 252.85) and Sterlite - Rs 113.35 (Rs 195.95).

But what is intriguing is that while the stocks of metal companies has seen a correction, it is not as if all metal prices have corrected. For instance, the steel prices have not gone down so much compared to the share price of steel stocks. Given the problem in mining in India, it is possible that domestic steel prices may remain firm, benefiting steel producers.

In an interview to Business Line, Mr Bhavesh Chauhan (Senior Research Analyst  — Metals & Mining), Angel Broking, Mumbai, shares his views on the metal sector's performance and what it holds for them in future. Excerpts:           

Metal stocks have taken a hammering. Do you consider them worthy of investment at current prices or is some more pain due?

The last 6-8 months have been bad for metal companies due to escalating debt crisis in Europe and stocks have been battered. As long as the situation in Europe remains grim, metal demand would remain weak and sentiment will keep metal prices lower. Monetary tightening in China has also played its part, although there hasn't been any huge decline in China's appetite for resources so far.

Different metal stocks (Sterlite (copper), Hindalco (aluminium), JSW Steel, Tata Steel and Sesa Goa) have suffered. Do you see any particular company recovering in the short term? Are all metal stocks in the same league?

Metal being a global commodity, all the stocks would be in the same league, although broadly we classify the companies as ferrous and non-ferrous and then we could have the classification in terms of steel makers and miners as well. Again, recovery of any stock would depend on how Europe shapes out. Also, there are concerns on US going into double dip too. So that factor has to be seen closely.

The reasons for the downslide in shares — controversy in the Karnataka mining sector and slowdown in Europe — are different. Do you think it would take some time for these negative factors to disappear?

 For Karnataka mining, it is more of a regional thing and it affects companies operating in Karnataka. I believe the Karnataka issue could be sorted out in 6-9 months. European slowdown is a big concern actually and how long it will take for these factors to disappear is a challenging question.

The economic slowdown has led to demand contraction resulting in fall in metal prices. But any economic recovery would see demand for metals picking up. So, do you feel the fall in prices is temporary or will it continue for a while?

Any recovery in Europe should see base metal prices recovering, although the way the scenario is today, it is difficult to give a time frame. At least in the near-term I do not expect any recovery in base metal prices.

Which are the sectors that would benefit due to metal prices falling — autos, housing, electrical goods, capital goods. Do they have any upside potential because of this?

Companies in capital goods and infrastructure will benefit if prices fall. However, steel prices have not fallen so far. Steel is the commodity which is used mainly as a raw material in machinery and construction. We do not expect any significant fall in steel prices anyway as prices of raw material remain high and are expected to remain firm due to supply concerns.

Though metal prices have fallen, the woes in Europe and US may not lead to pick-up in demand for products. How will Indian companies benefit?

Base metal prices have fallen. So, a little benefit will flow to some companies. However, steel remains the most widely used commodity.

How will the rise in dollar value and fall in rupee value affect the Indian metal cos? Hasn't the fall in rupee value neutralised any benefit of fall in commodity prices?

With the rupee depreciating, it helps companies selling metals as imports become expensive and hence domestic producers can raise prices. As far as importers of commodities are concerned, so far the falling rupee has offset falling commodity prices as you rightly say.

Have the frontline metal stocks become investment worthy after price correction? What are your picks and why?

We do feel that front-line metal stocks are now worth investing as we believe markets are discounting on the near term global macro issues (primarily Euro zone crisis). The current price levels do not discount the expansion plans by companies over the next 2-3 years. We like companies with captive resources and big expansion plans. With captive resources, these companies would generate higher return on capital employed at even current metal prices. Though we like Hindustan Zinc, SAIL, Sterlite amongst others, Tata Steel and Hindalco are our top picks –Tata Steel with a target price Rs 614 and Hindalco with a target price of Rs 196.

We like Tata Steel for its buoyant business outlook, driven by higher sales volume on completion of its 2.9 mt brown field expansion in Jamshedpur. The company's raw material projects are expected to be commissioned by 4Q FY2012 with lower off take initially; the full benefit is expected to accrue in FY2013E. Additionally, restructuring initiatives at Tata Steel Europe are likely to benefit the company going forward. We believe Hindalco is well placed to benefit from its aluminium expansion plans (capacity increasing by nearly two-three folds in the next two-four years). Most of its new capacities will be backed by captive mines leading to robust margins. Further, we expect steady EBITDA of $1 billion annually from Novelis.   

Steel prices have not fallen much but steel stocks have suffered. Because of the mining issue, steel prices may remain firm. Does that make steel stocks attractive for investment?

Steel prices have not fallen because prices of iron ore and coking coal across the globe are still firm. The mining problem is only India-specific and does not have any impact on the steel prices, which are globally determined. We believe steel stocks are attractive given that their margins have shrunk drastically over the last 9 months or so. We like steel stocks as coking coal prices are expected to fall, interest rates in India should fall sooner than later, capex cycle should pick up in the next six months. The stock prices have discounted all the negatives, leaving some of the stocks highly undervalued. 

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Buy Sesa Goa on declines

Long term investors should consider buying Sesa Goa on all declines. The scrip is in a very strong uptrend.

It has always been among the better metal performers. During bull markets, it is volatile, and on the downside during bear markets but its long term returns over 4-5 years is probably among the highest in this sector.

The stock could react in the near term and could stabilize around 425 levels. Buy on declines for a target of 750 in a years time frame.

The following data gives the returns the scrip given over a period of time

Performance

1 Week : Rs 399.95 (11.56%)

1 Month : Rs 353.60 (26.19%)

1 Year : Rs 72.75 (513.33%)

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Sesa Goa - Buy

Sesa Goa Reco price: Rs 107 Current market price: Rs 112.2 Target price: NA Brokerage: Edelweiss Securities Macro indicators such as purchasing managers’ index, fixed asset investment and loan growth are pointing to a turnaround in the Chinese economy. Financing of the RMB 4 trillion stimulus programmes is underway and expect actual demand for steel to commence within the next six months. China’s incremental steel demand is estimated to be 110 million tonne (MT) over two years and in near term, it could rise 15 per cent in H2 CY09 over H1 CY09. There are concerns regarding looming oversupply and high inventories. Top global players alone have added or will add 210 MTPA of capacity over the next two years (around 26 per cent of CY08 demand). However, most of the pain is over for spot prices with no major downside from current levels. Sesa Goa, which produces iron ore, has seen its market share in Indian exports increase from 10.8 per cent in FY07 to 14.5 per cent in 9M FY09, underscoring its leadership position. The management is looking to add 500 MT in iron resources over the next two-three years; exploration in existing mines has already indicated higher resources. Withdrawal of export tax on iron ore fines has improved the company’s margins significantly. The estimates for FY10 are being revised upwards on the basis of strong volume growth and rupee depreciation. The DCF valuation additionally factors in potential increase in royalty to 7.5 per cent from FY11E and works out to Rs 129 per share. The brokerage has upgraded its recommendation on the stock to ‘buy’, from ‘reduce’ earlier. Smart Investor BS 12-04-09 Our view : This is an aggressive stock YH = Rs.221 and YL = 61 Short term : Target Rs.150 Recommended Buying Price = Rs.100 Recommended Selling Price = Rs.150 Long Term : TP = Rs.200 for a 12 months holding period Bought to you by : Intelligent Investor Investment Advisory division of Ravina Consulting www.ravinaconsultants.com BANGALORE 560048 Follow us www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

Market Voices 13-03-09

Today the Indian market witnessed one of the strongest session in recent months. Largecap stocks gained in strength though midcap and smallcap stocks were muted in their gains. Sensex is up 5.3% and Nifty is up 4%. BSE Midcap index was up 0.8%, BSE Smallcap index was up 2.5% over the week. BSE Metals index up 6.7%, BSE Auto index up 6.5%, and BSE Oil & Gas index was up 6.2%.  

It was a cheerful day for the Indian market that closed on a highly positive note. Sensex shut shop at 8756, up 413 points and Nifty at 2719, up 102 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 2.9% and BSE Smallcap index was up 1.9%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 890 against declines of 202 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included DLF, Tata Power and Tata Motors while losers included BPCL, ABB and NTPC.  

Hold long position in RIL, says Rajat Bose, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. But do not buy at current levels because it is trading near its resistance level of Rs 1320, he adds. The stock is at Rs 1282.35, UP 6.7% on the BSE.  

Hold NTPC with long-term view, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on Zee Business. Buy more at Rs 165, he adds. The stock is at Rs 170.20, down 2% on the BSE.  »

Hold Nagarjuna Construction for 12 months, says Sailesh Kanani of Angel Broking on CNBC Awaaz. It will give returns of 80-100%, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 40.50, up 4.1% on the BSE.  

The Indian economy is close to bottoming out and it could turn around by Q4 this year, says Sam Mahtani of F&C Investments on CNBC TV18. He expects the second half of the year to be positive backed by the steep decrease in interest rates and aggressive monetary policy actions that was taken over in the past couple of months.  

Stay invested in Axis Bank, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. It is one of those stocks in the private sector which has done pretty well, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 330.55, up 8.6% on the BSE. 

Hold long positions in Nifty for target of 2780 and stop loss of 2660, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.  

It was a stellar day for the Indian market thanks to excellent global cues. Sensex closed at 8789, up 445 points (provisional) and Nifty at 2725, up 108 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 3.1% and BSE Smallcap index was up 1.9%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 870 against declines of 315 on the NSE. This is the largest point and percentage gain for Nifty since December 10, 2008, says NDTV Profit.  

Buy Sesa Goa on dips, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has support at Rs 65 and resistance at Rs 105, he adds. The stock is at Rs 80, up 5.5% on the BSE.  

Go long on Cairn India at Rs 170 with target of Rs 175, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 167, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 169.70, up 3.95% on the BSE.  

Buy DLF when it goes above Rs 150 with target of Rs 162, 180 and 211, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 140, he adds. The stock is currently trading at 153, up 11.8% on the BSE.  

Hold Videocon Industries, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 140-150, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 84.50, up 1.8% on the BSE.  

The Indian market is trading firm with the Nifty above the 2700 mark. Commodity stocks are showing strength. The Asian markets closed on a high. Sensex is trading at 8716, up 372 points and Nifty is at 2709, up 92 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 2.7% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.8%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 887 against declines of 300 on the NSE.  

Buy DLF on dips, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It is worth taking a long call on this stock, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 151.50, up 10.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Ambuja Cement with target of Rs 75 and 86, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 63, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 68.80, up 1.6% on the BSE.  

HSBC maintains a buy call on Reliance Industries with target of Rs 1640, reports CNBC Awaaz. It is expected to give returns of 36% from current levels, it adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1271.50, up 5.8% on the BSE.  

Hold Chambal Fertilisers with stop loss of Rs 32, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. It is trading in the range of Rs 32-42, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 36.10, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

Hold GMR Infra with target of Rs 85, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 71.50, up 3.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Tata Motors with target of Rs 162 and 172, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 148, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 158.30, up 8.5% on the BSE.  

Buy Dena Bank with target of Rs 36, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 28, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 30.85, up 4.1% on the BSE.  

Buy ICICI Bank on dips, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has a long-term support between Rs 200-250, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 307, up 8% on the BSE.  

The Asian and European markets are trading positive and following the global cues, the Indian market continues to hold up fairly well. Both the largecap and midcap indices are showing good gains. Sensex is trading at 8668, up 324 points and Nifty is at 2695, up 77 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 2.6% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.4%.  

Hold HUL which has support at Rs 185 and Rs 210, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has resistance at Rs 245, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 228.50, up 1.4% on the BSE.  

Exit Indiabulls Real Estate on rally, says Sharmila Joshi of Systematix Shares on NDTV Profit. Invest in some other sector altogether, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 89.60, up 4.7% on the BSE.  

Hold Shree Renuka Sugars with target of Rs 98-100, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. It has support at Rs 75, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 76.75, up 2.1% on the BSE.  

Investors should sell Satyam on rally, says Phani Sekhar of Angel Broking on CNBC Awaaz. There is, however, trading opportunity in this, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 46.60, down 1.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Axis Bank and sell when it reaches Rs 425, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 220-270 and resistance at Rs 352-396, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 326, up 7.1% on the BSE.  

Hold L&T for 2-3 years, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. It will give very good returns, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 603, up 4.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Cairn India at its support level of Rs 150, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. Sell at Rs 168-170, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 169.80, up 4% on the BSE.  

The Indian market continues to look good and cheerful as the Asian markets surge too. The indices are gaining ground. Banks, IT, realty and metals zoom. Sensex is trading at 8654, up 311 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2687, up 68 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.4% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.3%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 852 against declines of 302on the NSE.  

Hold Tech Mahindra at current levels, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 260 on the BSE.  

Hold Rajesh Export and exit when it reaches Rs 30, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 19-20, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 22.30, down 0.9% on the BSE. 

Hold Hero Honda with target of Rs 1040, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 935, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 957.60, down 1.5% on the BSE.  » 

Invest in Escorts with long-term view, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. It will give good returns, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 36.65, down 2.9% on the BSE.  

Hold GVK Power for long term with stop loss of Rs 12, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 18.45, up 1.9% on the BSE.  

Buy SBI, Axis Bank and PNB on dips, says Daljeet Kohli of Emkay Shares and Stock Brokers on CNBC Awaaz. These are safe stocks to invest in, he adds.  

Buy Mahindra & Mahindra at Rs 280, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. It has resistance at Rs 334, crossing which it might go up to Rs 410, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 352.20, up 7% on the BSE. 

Hold Reliance Capital with stop loss below Rs 274, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 303.80, up 7% on the BSE.  

At noon, the market continues to look good, steadying the gains of the day. Most heavyweights are pushing the indices up, except for NTPC which is trading in the red. Sensex is trading at 8625, up 281 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2685, up 68 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.4% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 867 against declines of 268 on the NSE.  

Buy Bharti Airtel at current levels but with strict stop loss, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 550.70, up 0.1% on the BSE. 

Buy Satyam at around Rs 38 and hold for 3 years, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. Stop loss for short term should be Rs 32, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 46.25, down 2.01% on the BSE.  

Buy IDFC on decline at around Rs 40-42, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. One can get returns of 10%, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 47, up 5.2% on the BSE.  

Sell RIL on rally, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. Crucial levels to watch out for are Rs 1260-1280, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1238, up 3% on the BSE.  

Hold ICICI Bank with stop loss of Rs 248, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 330-350, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 305.50, up 7.5% on the BSE..  

Buy Kotak Mahindra Bank at around Rs 230-210 with trading target of Rs 255-260, says Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 205, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 239, up 3.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Rolta India with stop loss of Rs 38, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Exit when it reaches Rs 47-50, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 43.35, up 4.8% on the BSE.  

An hour into opening, the market is looking good, holding on to the morning's gain. The Asian markets are rallying, too, with Hang Seng and Nikkei looking rather strong. Sensex is trading at 8584, up 244 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2677, up 59 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.5%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 820 against declines of 249 on the NSE.  

Buy Ashok Leyland on dips with stop loss of Rs 15, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. It has a crucial level of Rs 17.20, crossing which it might go up to Rs 22, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 17.15, up 3.3% on the BSE.  

Sell Dewan Housing on rally, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. The company is under pressure at the moment, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 53.65, down 0.6% on the BSE.  

Hold Tata Motors with target of Rs 185-195, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 135, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 153.60, up 5.2% on the BSE.  

Hold Tata Steel with target of Rs 165-175, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 160.80, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

Buy Emco with stop loss of Rs 23, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Traders keep target of Rs 31-32, he adds. Investors can expect returns of 25-30%, he says. The stock is currently trading at Rs 29.40, up 13.1% on the BSE.  

Buy Sesa Goa on decline of 5-10%, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 78.80, up 4% on the BSE.  

Go long on Bank Nifty with target of 3525-3550, says Devangshu Dutta, market expert, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of 3375, he adds.  

Sell Wipro on rally at Rs 225 with target of Rs 200, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 230, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 215.95, up 1.8% on the BSE.  

Traders should buy equities today, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He feels that buyers could either take profits or carry their position into Monday.  

The market opens on a reasonably good note today, following a rally in the US market. Autos and financial stocks are leading the gains. Sensex is trading at 8563, up 219 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2676, up 59 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 401 against declines of 58 on the NSE.  

Go long on Nifty Futures with target of 2690, says Devangshu Dutta, market expert, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of 2580, he adds.  

Some covering by Nifty 2500 Put buyers was seen yesterday, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. The Options data now indicates a neutral view with IVs coming down, he adds. He sees resistance for Nifty at 2680 and feels that a higher closing would lead to a short covering rally.  

There could be a short covering rally in the next few days followed by a collapse, says Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He sees resistance levels for Nifty at 2650 and 2700 and support at 2410 and 2480.  

The bias is on the upside for the near term given the positive global cues, says Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities on CNBC TV18. He feels that the Nifty can go up to 2700, while the key support is at 2500. There are hopes that the Q3 GDP may be revised upward after the good IIP data, he adds

Sesa Goa - Buy

Investors with a three-year horizon can consider accumulating the stock of Sesa Goa, trading at Rs 82.10. The company’s market leadership in iron ore mining and exports, signs that Chinese demand for Indian ore may resume on the back of the stimulus package and the attractive valuation for the stock make it a reasonable long-term investment in the commodities pack.

The stock of Sesa Goa trades at a price-earning multiple of 4.6 times its trailing earnings. In the domestic context, National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) and Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation of India (MMTC) (not strictly comparable due to a wider product basket) trade at a P/E of about 15 times.

More India business stories

Global iron ore miners such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale currently trade at 9.7, 9.4 and 6.6 P/Es respectively.

Business Overview

The company’s revenues originate from three segments — iron ore, pig iron and metallurgical coke (Met coke).

The iron ore segment is the backbone for the business and its share in revenues has steady increased in the last four years, to contribute 84 per cent to sales in 2007-08.

Sesa Goa, with its mines in Goa, Karnataka and Orissa, produces lower and medium grade ore. Sixty-six per cent of the company’s iron ore production is exported to China and 20 per cent to other Asian countries such as Japan, Pakistan and South Korea and 7 per cent to Europe. Domestic sales are a miniscule 7 per cent.

Demand Outlook

By relying substantially on the export market, particularly on China, Sesa Goa’s earnings prospects hinge to a large extent on Chinese offtake of Indian iron ore. This being the case, post-Olympic stockpiles and the sharper-than-expected deceleration in the Chinese economy led to imports recording sharp year-on-year falls from October 2008.

Iron ore spot prices also corrected from $190 in May to $ 63 in October 2008. While China’s 4 trillion Yuan ($586 billion) bail-out package is expected to revive demand for steel and, thus, iron ore, the jury is still out on whether overall Chinese import volumes will be maintained at last year’s levels of about 400 million tonnes.

But the past two months have brought signs of a drawdown in Chinese stockpiles and better export offtake of iron ore, especially for Indian exporters. Export volumes of iron ore from India staged a sharp year-on-year increase of 38 per cent and 21 per cent respectively in December and January.

Expectations of higher Chinese demand have propped up spot prices for iron ore by about 30 per cent from $63 to $ 85 a tonne in recent months.

While Sesa Goa appears well-placed to benefit from the higher volumes and higher spot sales, ongoing negotiations on contract prices for 2009-10 between the large iron ore producers and Chinese steel mills, expected to be concluded by April, may be the deciding factor on the price outlook. Current expectations are for a 10-30 per cent cut in contract prices compared to last year.

Financial Overview

Offtake has not been a key problem for Sesa Goa in recent years, with the company managing a 25-30 per cent volume growth every year since 2004-05.

In the current fiscal, Sesa Goa witnessed a volume decline in the September quarter to the tune of 30 per cent on a complete cutback in Chinese demand, but volumes recovered, increasing by 37 per cent in the December quarter. Sales for the last quarter were up by 23 per cent on a Y-o-Y basis, despite the economic slowdown.

Volume growth from the iron ore segment was at 36 per cent year on year and 37 per cent . Sales are up by 76 per cent and net profits by 69 per cent in the nine months ended December 2008.

Steadily rising iron ore realisations have helped Sesa Goa steadily improve its operating profit margins over the years to nearly 48 per cent in the first nine months of 2008-09; though margins have moderated in the December quarter.

A low cost structure and zero financing costs, endows the company with a cost advantage amongst its competitors globally. Vedanta Resources Plc (the 51 per cent holding company) had earlier announced plans for an eight-fold increase in the iron ore production capacity at Sesa Goa.

While this expansion project will certainly add scale over the long term, whether it will be implemented in its entirety, given a softer demand scenario, needs to be seen. This plan has the potential to increase the debt on the balance-sheet. Strong operational performance in recent years has left Sesa Goa with high return ratios (return on capital employed of over a 100 per cent), a strong balance-sheet, with high free reserves and near zero debt. With commodity prices set to fall further, the company has hinted at more room for downsizing costs.

Recent export duty concessions extended by the Indian Government will also translate into better realisations in the coming quarters. The easing off of inflation may see lower policy intervention on ore exports; this has been a key source of risk to earnings last year.

Valuations

The key risks to Sesa Goa’s earnings arise from a sharper-than-expected cut in iron ore prices (contract as well as spot), slippage in Chinese demand and a spike in freight rates.

Volumes and defending its market share being the foremost priority, Sesa Goa may have to work with thinner margins than in the immediate past, for the near term.

A key trigger to the stock price would be the conclusion of iron ore negotiations with China, at the expected prices.

Market Wrap for week ending

It was a good week for the Indian market that showed resilience and held its own amidst its global peers. On the domestic front, good IIP numbers and lower inflation figures kept the market in a positive frame. While the market goes into next week with a positive bias, experts are not convinced there is more steam left for the market to go up. This week's good figures are: Sensex up 3.5% and Nifty up 3.7%. BSE Midcap index up 4.5%, BSE Smallcap index up 3.5% over the week. BSE Realty index up 13%, BSE Consumer Goods index up 7.7%, BSE Auto index up 6.5%, BSE Bankex index up 5.5%, BSE Metal index up 3.5% and BSE Oil & Gas index up 3%.  

Positive global cues saw the Indian market close higher today. There was some profit booking in last hour of trade. Experts felt the market did not have any major expectations from the interim rail budget and thus almost ignored the event today. They added that the market could see a sell off on Monday due to the vote on account and interim budget. Sensex shut shop at 9634, up 168 points and Nifty at 2948, up 55 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.65% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.62%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 771 against declines of 417 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Mahindra & Mahindra, Idea and Reliance Communications while losers included Sun Pharma, GAIL and ABB. 

One can expect a global rally in the next two months, feels Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities, on CNBC TV18. The market could see a selloff on Monday on account of the interim budget, he says. But Nifty could possibly go to 3500 till the elections, he adds. 

The market may see a sell off on Monday if there are negative surprises in the interim budget, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on NDTV Profit. It would be a good time to book profits across the board, he adds.  

The acid test for the market is likely to be 3100, feels E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It is to be seen if Nifty can convincingly cross that level or peter out, he says. If Nifty can cross 3100 then levels of 3482 and 3500 is what one can expect, he adds. 

Hold Reliance Communications with a target price of Rs 200 where one can book profits and exit the stock, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock has support at Rs 160 and is currently trading at Rs 181, up 5.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Sesa Goa with a target price of Rs 120 in 2 months, says Salil Sharma of Kapoor & Sharma Company, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 95, up 2.08% on the BSE.  

Hold Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 750 where one can book profits and exit the stock, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 652, up 0.26% on the BSE. 

Hold Dish TV with a target price of Rs 30-32 where one can book profits and exit the stock, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 27, up 16% on the BSE. 

Hold Idea Cellular with a target price of Rs 58 where one can book profits and exit the stock, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock has support at Rs 33 and is currently trading at Rs 51, up 5.2% on the BSE.  

Hold Idea Cellular with a target price of Rs 56-60 where one can book profits and exit the stock, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 51, up 5.2% on the BSE.

 If Nifty is able to sustain above 2950 then it could see an upmove to 3050, says Atul Badkar of Edelweiss, on CNBC TV18. It would be good to book profits at higher levels, he adds.  

It was a good day for the market that closed higher thanks to positive global cues. Sensex closed at 9617, up 151 points (provisional) and Nifty at 2948, up 55 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 1.4% and BSE Smallcap index was up 0.82%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 771 against declines of 417 on the NSE.  

Hold all Nifty long positions with a target of 3050-3075 and stop loss of 2840, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18, as closing market strategy. 

Book 50% profits on long positions and hold the rest with Nifty target of 3050, says Anil Maghnani, on CNBC TV18, as closing market strategy.

Hold Nifty long positions, says Deepak Mohoni, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18, as closing market strategy.

It is worthwhile to wait and watch which way the market is likely to go, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC-TV18. If Nifty is able to cross 2940 then it could rally another 100 points, he says. So stay long, he adds. 

If Nifty closes above 2930 then it could go up to 2960 which is a strong resistance level, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. If Nifty is able to cross 2960 then it would mark a short-term uptrend and Nifty could even rally another 150 points, he adds.  

Crnindia.com maintains a buy call on GMR Infrastructure with a target of Rs 88 and stop loss of Rs 73, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 79, up 2.57% on the 

SMC Global Securities maintains a buy call on Alstom Projects with a target of Rs 340 and stop loss of Rs 268, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 287, up 0.90% on the BSE. 

HEM Securities maintains a sell call on Ranbaxy with a target of Rs 192 and stop loss of Rs 222, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 211, down 0.59% on the BSE.  

Sharekhan maintains a buy call on Bajaj Auto with a target of Rs 640, reports Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 484, up 1.25% on the BSE.  » Send to friends

Crnindia.com maintains a buy call on Ambuja Cements with a target of Rs 79 and stop loss of Rs 70, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 73, down 0.20% on the BSE. 

Tata Steel continues to be in a range of Rs 165-Rs 220 and one can trade accordingly on the lower and upper side, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 195, up 5.23% on the BSE. 

Buy Kalpataru Power and Lupin for the long term for good returns, says Jigar Shah of KIM ENG Securities, on CNBC TV18. Kalpataru Power is currently trading at Rs 277, up 4.4% and Lupin at Rs 638, up 0.23% on the BSE. 

Hold Nifty long with a stop loss of 2880, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Nifty range is 2940-2960 and the market does not seem to have much fuel left to go up, he says. The market does not have much upside now, he adds.  

The European markets have opened in the positive. Positive global cues see the Indian market continue to trade firm. Sensex is trading at 9666, up 200 points and Nifty is at 2954, up 61 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 1.7% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.11%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 868 against declines of 285 on the NSE. 

Buy Sterlite Technologies with a price target of Rs 120 in 12 months, says Jigar Shah of KIM ENG Securities, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 65, up 2.42% on the BSE.  

Angel Broking maintains a buy call on Petronet LNG with a target of Rs 80, reports Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 37, up 0.02% on the BSE.  

HEM Securities maintains a buy call on Titan Industries with a target of Rs 879 and stop loss of Rs 820, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 857, up 0.42% on the BSE.

The economy is likely to see a significant slowdown in the second half of this year, says Tushar Poddar of Goldman Sachs, on CNBC TV18. Do not expect the IIP numbers to bounce back in January-March, he says. Exports may go down by 20%, he adds.  

Buy ABB close to Rs 435-420 with long-term view, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 480, he adds. It will give good returns, he says. The stock is currently trading at Rs 448, down 1.6% on the BSE. 

Investors should stay away from Educomp Solutions, says Deepak Mohoni, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. There is downside volatility in the stock and overnight risk is too much, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 2051.50, up 4.9% on the BSE. 

Buy MRPL with target of Rs 46, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 37, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 40.90, up 0.4% on the BSE.  

Hold Power Grid with stop loss of Rs 80, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. It can go up to Rs 140, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 93.70, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

I am negative on IT space, says Vibhav Kapur of IL&FS Investmart on CNBC TV18. Indications are that IT spending will be cut and there is a lot of pricing pressure, he adds.

Hold IDFC with stop loss of Rs 50, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. It will give good returns in the long run, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 58.75, up 3.1% on the BSE. 

Stay away from SKumars Nationwide, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 20.90, up 2.2% on the BSE

Hold IDBI Bank which is for quite some time trading in the range of Rs 50-60, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 50, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 56.10, up 1.5% on the BSE.  

Go long on Hero Honda with target of Rs 970, says Devangshu Dutta, market expert, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 890, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 926.95, up 1.2% on the BSE. 

Hold Nagarjuna Construction with stop loss of Rs 45, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 55, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 52.75, up 0.9% on the BSE.  

Both investors and traders should sell Kernex Microsystems on rally, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 94.30, up 10% on the BSE. 

Go long on Power Grid with target of Rs 105, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 85, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 93.95, up 3.4% on the BSE.  

An hour into opening, the market continues to hold on to its morning gains with rail stocks buzzing ahead of the rail budget announcement. Sensex is trading at 9631, up 165 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2944, up 50 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1.3% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.5%. The market breadth is strongly positive with advances at 832 against declines of 219 on the NSE.  

Hold BHEL, says Ashish Kapur of Invest Shoppe, on CNBC Awaaz. New investors can buy on dips, he adds. It is a fundamentally strong stock, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1454, up 3% on the BSE. 

Buy TCS at Rs 490 with stop loss of Rs 475, says Ramesh Arora, technical analyst, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 530, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 514.55, up 1.1% on the BSE. 

Buy BEML when it is available 5 to 7% down from its current levels, says Ashish Kapur of Invest Shoppe on CNBC Awaaz. The company's valuations are good, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 411.80, up 4.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Texmaco which is fundamentally strong, says Ashish Kapur of Invest Shoppe, on CNBC Awaaz. New investors can buy on dips, he adds. It will give returns of 30-40% from the current levels. The stock is currently trading at Rs 62, up 7.1% on the BSE.  

Hold JP Associates with stop loss of Rs 61, says Ramesh Arora, technical analyst, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 90-95, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 75.60, up 3.5% on the BSE. 

Buy Aban Offshore at Rs 443 with target of Rs 461, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 434, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 456.80, up 3% on the BSE. 

Buy Reliance Industries at Rs 1325 with target of Rs 1425, says Ramesh Arora, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 1290, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1380, up 2.1% on the BSE.  

Sell Gail at Rs 214 with target of Rs 210, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 219, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 216.75, up 1% on the BSE  

The market opens on a positive note with most of the heavyweights in the green. Sensex is trading at 9599, up 133 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2935, up 42 points. CNX Midcap index is up 0.9% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.6%. 

Market may have flat to positive opening and may remain volatile as it is still moving within a narrow range, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He sees support at 2830-2860 and resistance at 2960-2980. Markets are moving in a very narrow range and this range may break in either direction, he adds. He advises traders to go long on dips for intra-day gains as long as Nifty is trading above 2800.  

2800 Put buyers have been squaring up their positions, says Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking, on CNBC TV18. This is not the right time to go short or form longs, he adds. He advises investors to wait for 3000 level for creating shorts in the market. He finds RIL and ONGC weak.  

I think we can see some technical rebound in Asian markets today but however most of the markets have no clear direction, says Patrick Shum of Karl-Thomson Securities on CNBC TV18. I think the investors are waiting for further news from US side and also from Chinese Government, so I guess in the near-term most markets will continue to move within a range, he adds. 

We are positive on the market and may see a higher base after the recent consolidation, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on CNBC TV18. The Nifty can gain 100-150 points if it manages to cross 2950, he adds. He expects continued focus on capex in the Rail Budget today and additional stimulus measures in the Interim Budget next week.