Showing posts with label Buy Recommendations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buy Recommendations. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Philips Carbon Black - Buy


Our research has come up with a long term pick in Philips Carbon Black.  The stock after hitting a high of 170 levels is trending towards Rs.125/-

Company Background

Phillips Carbon Black Limited (PCBL) is an India-based manufacturer of carbon black. The Company also manufactures various grades of specialty black. The Company operates through two business segments: Carbon black and Power. PCBL manufactures carbon black, a filler used in rubber compounds, and customized blacks for specialized applications and specialty blacks for non-rubber applications, such as films, pipes, automotive, fiber and ink. 

The power generation process involves recovery and utilization of the thermal energy of the process waste gas being produced from carbon black manufacturing process. This waste heat/gas is utilized to generate steam, which in turn is used to generate electrical energy. PCBL has capacity to produce 472,000 metric tons per annum of carbon black across four locations in India. The Company also has co-generation green power plant at each of these locations. PCBL is a part of the RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group of Companies.

Our Recommendation :

The scrip has given a decent return of 86% it had a low of Rs.90 and peaked out at Rs.168 almost doubling from the bottom. It has corrected 20% during the last 1 month 6% in 3 months.  Investors with a short term perspective should buy around 125 levels and exit around 205.  

Caution :
This is fundamentally long term scrip with a potential to grow over 9-12 months time horizon.  Enter around Rs.125 level and hold for a target of Rs.205 holding period of 6 months.  Buy all declines to exit on rises and do not trade in quantities larger than > 1000 - it can be in active once the rise and fall have happened.  


Raghav
Equity Advisor

Smart Investor
No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross Kammanahalli
BANGALORE 560084


# 98800.80321

ingeniousinvestor@gmail.com

www.ingeniousinvestor.in

Monday, March 17, 2014

Arvind - Buy on declines and Add to Portfolio

Company Back Ground

Arvind Limited is an India-based textile company. The Company operates in three segments: Textiles segment, which includes products, such as, fabric, yarn and garments; Brands and Retail segment, includes branded garments and apparels, and Others segment includes electronic private automatic branch exchange (EPABX) Systems (Electronics), construction and project activity.

The Company operates in divisions, such as denim, woven fabrics, knits fabrics, garment exports, advanced materials, Arvind Brands, Mega Mart retail, The Arvind Store, engineering, telecom, and real estate. The Company’s weaving capabilities include Airjet looms and Rapier looms. Its finishing capabilities include continuous bleaching and dying ranges, caustic mercerization, and machinery for various chemical and mechanical finishes.

The brands sold in MegaMart include RUGGERS - SKINN - ELITUS - DONUTS - KARIGARI - MEA CASA - AUBURN HILL - BAY ISLAND - COLT - LEISHA- EDGE.   Arvind has sealed a deal to purchase a 49% interest in Calvin Klein India, the finalized deal will help Arvind strengthen this partnership. The transaction will also help propel Arvind into international growth through deals with overseas brands, the report stated.

Despite the fallout of recession, Arvind`s brands business grew by 25% in the last ninemonth period to Rs 1,412 crore. The company`s profit before tax and interest from brands business grew by 17% to Rs 34.7 crore in the last nine months. The company`s brands include Excalibur, Flying Machine, Colt and Newport. In addition to this, it owns the right to market brands such as Polo, Arrow, Cherokee, Next, Club America and Megamart. The premium end of the apparel market has been growing at a rapid 16-18% as aspirational customers are looking to buy better brands

Market Performance :

The stock has been on an uptrend, and has gained as much as 75% out performing both Sensex, and Nifty returns during the same period. In the last 3 months the stock has moved sharply and had high and low Rs.159 and Rs.124 giving returns in excess of 20%

Investment Strategy :

The company is likely to post robust results for the Q4 of current year making it an attractive buy around Rs.137 to Rs.140.  Depending on investment horizon we could expect decent 20% return in next few months, while long term portfolio should continue to hold to stock for a target price of Rs.200/- and keep adding on declines.

Raghav
Equity Research Analyst

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross Kamannahalli
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas
mail to intellinvestor@gmail.com
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Friday, March 14, 2014

PSU Shares - Gold Mine or Black Hole ?

Dear Investors,

The recent rally in BSE and NSE has given a big boost to the most neglected sector - Public Sector Undertakings.  

BSE PSU Index comprises of 59 scrips out of which 24  belong to Nationalized Banks.  Rest 35 shares belong to core business / manufacturing activities.  Many stocks in this sector are under owned by both FIIs and Domestic Institutions, HNIs for the simple reason that these are thoroughly mis-managed.

The Sector is out of investment radar of large investors due to uncertainty. There are several reasons for the downturn in PSU stocks include decline in net profit and the government's move to sell shares of some of these companies via offer for sale, at a discount to prevailing market price.  Any further equity dilution means - more supply depressing the market price.  FPOs by the government has become a nightmare for the Retail investors as they are now trading at deep discount to their issue price.  

For the smart investors this gives a golden opportunity to buy into high quality stocks at attractive valuations.  The top ten identified by our Research Team is given below :

  1. BHEL
  2. BPCL
  3. BEML
  4. Coal India
  5. Engineers India
  6. GAIL
  7. Hindustan Copper
  8. Indian Oil
  9. NMDC
  10. ONGC
Investors should carefully analyze the price movements of these shares besides the Q4 results for 2014 before taking any investment decisions.

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Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross Kamannahalli
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas
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Wednesday, March 12, 2014

HCL Info - What Next ??

The stock has risen more than 60% during the last 3 months.  On Dec 11 the scrip was hovering around Rs.21 levels and the run up to Rs.36 was pretty fast and furious.  While the Nifty rose just 3.23%   during last 3 months, BSE Sensex as well as BSE 50 rose 3.3%    during the same period, this scrip vaulted giving astounding returns to the investors !

Company Back ground :

HCL Infosystems Limited is an information and communication technology (ICT) company. It is engaged in developing and implementing ICT solutions for diverse market segments. It operates in three segments: computer systems and other related products and services, telecommunication and office automation, and Internet and related services. 

The computer systems and other related products and services consists of manufacturing of computer hardware systems, providing comprehensive systems integration, roll out and infrastructure management solutions. This segment also provides information technology (IT) services, including maintenance, facility management and ICT training. On November 10, 2011, it sold its equity stake in HCL Infinet Ltd. Consequently, HCL Infinet Ltd has ceased to be subsidiary of the Company. In August 2012, the Company, through its subsidiary HCL Insys Pte. Ltd., bought the remaining 40% interest held by the NTS Group in HCL Infosystems MEA FZCo.

What Next ?

With the market entering bullish zone all the small and mid cap shares are seeing re-rating and scaling new highs each passing day.  HCL Info may stay subdued in the days to come, taking a pause to jump  higher and higher.  For the time being our Team suggests to adopt a Sell on Rise SOR strategy for playing safe in this volatile counter.

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross Kamannahalli
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas
mail to intellinvestor@gmail.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966

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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Buy PVR Limited


We recommend a buy in the mass media scrip PVR from a short-term horizon. It is apparent from the charts of the stock that since its March 2011 low of Rs 94, it has been on a long-term uptrend. Following a corrective decline from early December 2012 peak of Rs 341, the stock found support at Rs 250 in late January and early February this year. The stock resumed its long-term uptrend taking twin support at Rs 250. Both medium- and short-term trends are up for the stock.
Reinforcing the uptrend, the stock advanced 2 per cent accompanied by above average volumes recently. It is trading well above its 21- and 50-day moving averages. The daily as well as weekly relative strength indices are featuring in the bullish zone. Moreover, both daily and weekly price rate of change indicators are hovering in the positive terrain implying buying interest.
Our short-term outlook on the stock is bullish. We expect its uptrend to continue and reach our price target of Rs 400 or Rs 421 in next 2 months. Traders with a short-term horizon can consider buying the stock with stop-loss at Rs 335 level.
Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting
No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross, Kammanahallli
BANGALORE 560084

For Stock Advise + Ideas
sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com
Talk / SMS 08105737966

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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

9 Diwali Stocks from Kotak


The last Samvad year has been challenging for the markets with both, global and domestic concerns weighing on the indices. The new Samvad year brings hope of some solution to the global economic crises and speedy action from the Government in India.
In this background, broking firm Kotak Securities has selected some stocks which look attractive from an investment perspective. It opines these stocks may have a relatively lower downside in case of a sharp fall in markets. The same are as follows:
TCS:
CMP - Rs.1,049
Current TP - Rs.1,240
> We opine that, recent management commentary reflects greater optimism, likely on the back of strong pipeline and better deal flow.
> Management has seen continued revival in discretionary spends as well as in cost efficiency initiatives, which is encouraging.
> Stock is available at about 16.9x FY13 estimates.
ICICI Bank:
CMP - Rs 871
Current TP- Rs 1,364
> ICICI bank is better placed vis-à-vis its peers with robust liability franchise (CASA mix at ~42% at the end of Q1FY12), improving asset quality, healthy margin (NIM at 2.6% in Q1FY12).
> After achieving substantial success on 5Cs (Credit growth, CASA, Cost optimiza-tion, Credit quality and Customers), ICICI Bank is likely to continue its focus on profitable growth.
> After stripping the value of subsidiaries (Rs.236), stock is trading reasonable at 1.25x its FY12 ABV.
JP Associates:
CMP-  Rs 70
Current TP-  Rs 90
> Cement volumes are likely to jump going forward due to incremental capex while construction division revenues would start picking up by FY13.
> Along with this, post completion of cement capex, company is expected to utilize free cash flows for debt reduction.
> Thus, debt reduction and decline in interest rates would be positive for the company.
> Stock is available at about 9.2x EV / EBIDTA on FY12 estimates.
BEL:
CMP- Rs 1,522
Current TP - Rs.1,913
> The company enjoys a dominant status in the defence sector and has a steady growth profile, a key positive in the current economic environment.
> Order backlog is strong at Rs 230 billion, providing revenue visibility of 43 months, one of the highest in capital goods sector. We thus see revenue growth rates to move up in the future.
> The business is high-end with rich profitability and strong cash generator.
 BEL would remain a preferred vendor to the Indian defence sector.
> Stock is available at about 11.2x FY13 estimates.
Cummins India:
CMP - Rs 393
Current TP - Rs 507
>Company is well poised to benefit from recovery in the infrastructure spending in India.
> Commencement of mega production site at Phaltan is likely to ease out capacity constraints and would add to cash flow generation from Q3FY12E.
> Company has committed a Capex of USD 300 million funded mainly through internal accruals.
> Stock is available at 10.3x FY13 estimates. 
IRB infra:
CMP - Rs 160
Current TP - Rs.246
>Company has a strong order book for its EPC division and is also ideally positioned to benefit from toll rate hikes in line with inflation in most of its toll projects.
>It also has sufficient funds to meet equity requirements of existing and new projects and is best positioned to capture upcoming opportunities in the road segment.
>Stock is available at 8.6x FY13 estimates.
Indraprastha Gas: 
CMP - Rs 400
Current TP - Rs 450
>Looking at the growth potential in the City Gas Distribution, rich experience, huge demand of natural gas and strong promoter background, we are bullish on IGL.
>We believe that the strong trends in CNG and PNG segment will continue and IGL is best placed to benefit from rising gas consumption in India.
>Based on our estimates, the stock at current market price of Rs.400 is trading at 8.3x EV/EBIDTA and 14.5x P/E on FY13E earnings.
HT Media:
CMP - Rs.138
Current TP - Rs.200
Investments in three large markets (HT-Mumbai, Hindustan-UP, and Mint-business newspapers) over the past five years shall provide industry-beating growth in the coming years as readership reaches threshold levels in market share in key markets.
> Two of the company`s properties (HT-Mumbai, Mint) are set to achieve breakeven towards FY12-end.
> Valuations are reasonable at 11.8x PER FY13E.
NIIT Tech:
CMP - Rs.230
Current TP - Rs.300
>The company reported eight successive quarters of high volume growth.
>Non-linear revenues continue to grow at the company average and form about 27% of revenues.
> The order bookings in 2QFY12 were high at USD 200 (USD 86 million), indicating a conducive macro scene.
> The company may have net cash of about Rs.65 a share by FY13 end, as per our estimates.
> Stock is available at 6.3x FY13 estimates.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

10 Midcaps to own !

With broader market valuations turning rich, investors could gain from the next rung of value picks.

Even after the correction over the past few sessions, the markets are not far from their all-time peak and valuations continue to be rich. Most large-cap stocks seem fairly priced, so market pundits advocate being selective in picking stocks. Many believe mid-caps, which have not fully participated in the rally and where valuations are still attractive, could deliver better returns over the medium term.

"Barring global events, the markets could spend some time in a range-bound pattern, which is why we see a selective approach working in favour of the investors. Also, it is hard to find value in the Sensex and Nifty companies. In contrast to this, the BSE MidCap index is still far from its peak and many mid-cap companies are trading at very good valuations," says Gaurav Dua, head of research, Sharekhan.
TOP PICKS
PE (x)
FY11E

EPS CAGR (%)

CMP
(Rs )
FY12E (FY10-12E)
HCC *32.821.128.359
IL&FS Transport *13.411.026.0308
Tinplate6.45.424.777
TRIL6.55.129.6339
Tulip Telecom9.46.024.6178
...AND SOME MORE
Apollo Tyres8.25.61.866
GIC Housing Finance10.78.716.4146
Glenmark Pharma19.116.332.0343
Patel Engineering *15.412.326.0366
Pratibha Industrties8.05.932.871
* PE alone does not refelect the true value. These companies have various businesses, which offer good value and need to be considered separately; E: Analysts' estimates

The ongoing correction in the market offers an opportunity to pick some fundamentally good mid-cap stocks, capable of delivering good returns. We spoke to several research heads to know their top picks in this space. We selected 10 companies (see table, Top Picks) with market value of less than Rs 10,000 crore. We touch on five of these: all 10 offer a good combination of value and growth.

HCC
HCC has strong revenue visibility, as the order book is almost Rs 21,000 crore, 4.6 times its 2010-11 estimated sales. Besides, it owns seven infrastructure assets worth Rs 5,600 crore. The company aims to expand it's infra asset portfolio to Rs 15,000 crore by 2013-14, which will provide consistent revenue in the form of annuity. Two of its real estate projects in Mumbai have already seen traction and will be completed in a phased manner.

Its largest township project, Lavasa (HCC's stake is 65 per cent), is expected to hit the Initial Public Offer (IPO) market soon. After listing, it could create good value, as HCC's stake could be valued at about Rs 3,500-4500 crore. Analysts conservatively value HCC at Rs 75-80 per share. This does not fully reflect the value of its various assets. For instance, analysts have been cautious in valuing HCC's Lavasa stake, as they await details regarding its IPO, actual pricing and equity dilution. Even otherwise, at Rs 59, the stock offers a favourable risk-reward equation.

ITNL
There are expectations that awarding of new projects in the road segment will further improve in the near term, good news for companies like IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL). Notably, it has the strong backing of its promoters, industry understanding, superior execution capabilities and an integrated business model. ITNL is India's leading road infrastructure player, with 24 projects covering 15,000 lane-km, expected by 2014 to increase to 36,000 km. Besides road projects, the company also has EPC orders of about Rs 16,000 crore, almost nine times its 2010-11 estimated revenue and provides strong visibility.

Tinplate
Tinplate Company of India will benefit on account of its recent agreement with its promoter group company, Corus (Tata Steel Europe), one of the largest tinplate players in the world. While it will leverage on the expertise of Corus, the deal will also lead to higher exports (currently 25 per cent of revenues) of tinplate, used for packaging products. Back home, it has a 35-40 per cent market share in this business, expected to grow at a healthy pace. There are large opportunities in India for packaged food and edible oil, which will grow as per capita consumption improves. The company has more than doubled its capacity to 379,000 tonnes and is almost doubling its cold rolling mill capacity to 380,000 tonnes by the end of 2010. This will help in higher revenue growth and in margin expansion.

TRIL
Transformers & Rectifiers India, which manufactures a wide range of transformers, is set to benefit as capital expenditure in the transmission and distribution segment is expected to increase. It has an order book of Rs 394 crore, more than half of the current year's expected revenue. Recently , the company also signed an agreement with a leading global manufacturer for 765-Kv transformers, enabling it to cater to the growing demand for high capacity transformers. The company's earnings are expected to grow at about 29 per cent annually over the next two years, which is good.

Tulip Telecom
Tulip Telecom provides wireless enterprise connectivity, considered a promising area in terms of revenue visibility. The company aims to participate in government connectivity projects, where the potential is high. It also provides value-added services like data transfer and remote access. It has laid down a network of 6,000 km of fibre lines, operating a network across 50 cities. The fibre business contributed about 25 per cent to revenues in 2009-10, which could go to almost 70 per cent by 2012-13, leading to margin improvement.

Source BS

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Ravina Consulting

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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Buy Mphasis around 550 target 800 holding 1 year

Investors with a two-year horizon can buy the shares of Mphasis, a provider of software services.

An attractive service-mix, favourable offshore component and benefits of a strong deal pipeline accruing from the HP channel are key positives for the company. These apart, the company has also managed to grow inorganically through the acquisition of AIGSS in 2009 and Fortify Infrastructure Services this year. At Rs 580, the Mphasis share trades at 11 times its likely per share earnings for FY-11.

This is at a discount to peers such as Patni Computer and Tech Mahindra (not strictly comparable). Mphasis' net margin has been in the 20-21 per cent range, in line with what top-tier IT companies enjoy and a good 2-5 percentage points higher than peers.

Mphasis was acquired by EDS in 2006 and ,EDS, in turn, was taken over by HP in 2008. This has given access to the channels of HP and EDS, which have been well-utilised. Revenues from clients won through the HP channel accounts for over 70 per cent of overall revenues.


In FY-09 (it follows an October year-ending), the company reported revenues of Rs 4,263.8 crore, up 43.6 per cent compared to the previous fiscal while net profits stood at Rs 908.7 crore, an increase of 128.3 per cent. With the HP acquisition taking place, the numbers of FY-09 may not offer the best comparison for growth. For the nine months of FY-10 (a more comparable period), Mphasis' revenues grew 17.9 per cent to Rs 3691.1 crore compared with the corresponding previous period, while net profits expanded by 21.6 per cent to Rs 806.8 crore.

Healthy business mix

Mphasis offers application, BPO and infrastructure services. It derives around 65 per cent of revenues from application services, over 20 per cent from infrastructure outsourcing (ITO) and the rest largely through delivering BPO services.

With a bulk of its revenues coming from application development and maintenance and BPO, the company remains less susceptible to volatility in client spends and has a fairly stable revenue base. When HP acquired EDS (which bought Mphasis to its fold), the company managed to expand its capabilities into the fast growing infrastructure services, as clients outsource and go light on IT assets.

Also with over two-thirds of its revenues coming from the US and over 40 percent from the BFSI segment, Mphasis has benefited from the uptick in these segments over the last 3-4 quarters.

Cost optimisation

The company derives more than two-thirds of its revenues from services delivered offshore (mostly India). This has optimised cost for the company considerably.

In terms of manpower, in its various service segments, the offshore strength is 85-99 per cent, among the highest in the Indian IT space.

Billing in its BPO division has remained stable, while offshore billing rates for ITO services have increased. There has been billing pressure in the applications services offering, due to negotiations done with HP.

The management expects billing in this segment to be stable going forward. Any more pressure on the billing front could affect margins. But with robust volume growth and significant offshore proportion may provide some comfort.

Mphasis has also gained from the HP channel. By partnering the global IT major, the company has been able to compete for large-sized deals and win them as well. For instance, over the last one year, the number of clients with annual run-rate of $20 million has increased from 8 to13, with 10 of those coming from the HP channel.

The company's top ten clients have been stable and contribute around 45 per cent of revenues.

Inorganic growth

Mphasis acquired AIG Systems Solutions (AIGSS), a captive of AIG last year. AIGSS, with its offshore facilities based in India, offered twin advantages to Mphasis. One, it allowed for optimal cost structure by taking over readymade facilities and, second, it gave a chance to ramp-up on its applications offerings to the insurance industry along with being able to mine AIG for deals.

Another acquisition of Fortify Infrastructure done earlier this year, has enabled the company expand its ITO offerings. It has also managed a billing hike in its ITO segment based on this acquisition.

Fortify is likely to make annual contribution of close to Rs 100 crore to revenues. This would also position it well while pitching for deals from the HP channel.



Bought to you by


Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division


Ravina Consulting

No.11 AG Plaza

3rd Cross Kamanahalli

BANGALORE 560084


For Free Stock Advise + Ideas

sowmya@ravinaconsulting.com

Talk / SMS 08105737966


Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com

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