Sector Review - Realty 2010

Vidya Bala

BL Research Bureau

The stalled township project of Lavasa Corporation over alleged flouting of green laws and the resultant delay in the company's IPO is just one among the many snags that real estate players in the country struggle to cope with.

The real estate sector may have braved the crisis of 2008 and 2009 and managed to reduce borrowings and renew construction activity in 2010; but not too many factors are in its favour to aid a bounce back to the heydays of 2007.

That the earnings of companies in the listed realty space in the first half of FY-11 were still a good 67 per cent below earnings in the April–September half year of 2007, suggest that the climb back is quite a while away.

What 2011 holds

2011 could see the sector earnestly build on volumes, with residential sales remaining healthy and commercial space absorbed picking up. Even so, modest profit margins compared with earlier years and rising interest costs could continue to act as a drag on the sector's prospects.

If the recent trend is anything to go by, it is the mid-sized players that are likely to shake off the slowdown faster than their larger peers.

Residential demand

Residential demand can be expected to be the key revenue driver for developers, thanks to supply not keeping pace with demand as a result of slowdown in execution in 2008 and 2009.

According to a Cushman & Wakefield report, cumulative residential demand could be well over four million units by 2011. About 1.7 million units may be met in 2011, says the report, with the mid-sized housing segment seeing the maximum deficit (around three times).

Players in the listed space such as Sobha Developers, Peninsula Land, Puravankara Projects, who are focussed on the residential space, capitalised on this deficit by coming up with timely launches at a time when interest rates were slashed.

While the commercial space pick-up towards the end of 2010 has been encouraging, estimates suggest that only two-third of the 55 million sq. ft of supply coming in 2011 may be absorbed.

Inability to hike capital values and rentals at a desired pace, even as vacant office spaces are occupied are likely to keep margins depressed.

Modest profit margins

In all, operating profit margins of developers may only continue at more sustainable levels of 20-25 per cent (as against 30-45 per cent in 2007-08) for most mid-sized players for two reasons. One, most of them have altered their strategy from selling high-end homes and instead shifted focus to mid-sized housing, which offers lower margins, albeit with potential for high volumes.

Two, even as capital values of residential properties have risen, the inability to hike prices steeply in the middle-income segment in the face of higher input costs and interest costs could also mean settling for lower returns on projects.

Interest costs, in particular, may see some uptick this year. While most listed realty players have deleveraged their balance sheets, net credit by banks to the realty sector as a whole has risen five-fold to Rs 9,604 crore for the half year ending September 2010 compared with a year ago. Equity raising too, has slowed and may get tougher going forward.

According to data from Venture Intelligence, a research service focused on Private Equity & M&A, private equity investments in the realty sector in 2010 was $1,736 million against the high levels of $6,686 million seen in 2008.

Larger players languish

Overall, mid-sized regional players' focussed approach to select market segments may help outperform a DLF, still struggling to raise funds through divestment of non-core assets, or a Unitech embroiled in the telecom mess or an HDIL which deals with price-sensitive transferable development rights (TDR) market in Mumbai.

Traversing the coming year without being caught on the wrong foot on corporate governance issues also remains a big challenge for most players in this space.

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Brigade Enterprises - switch to frontline stocks

Source : businessline 03-05-09

Brigade Enterprises (Rs 51.2): 

Brigade Enterprises has also been reduced to nought in the remorseless correction witnessed over 2008. However some signs of strength are visible since the life-time low of Rs 27 formed on March 6. The strong up-trend from this trough has resulted in a gain of about 114 per cent. The stock has also moved above the long-term down-trend line. Medium-term resistance for the stock is around Rs 70. A downward reversal from here can result in a sideways move between Rs 35 and Rs 70 for a few months. Investors with a medium-term horizon can book some profits on a failure to clear this resistance.

Long-term investors can hold with a stop below the all-time low at Rs 25. Targets for the next two years are Rs 100 and Rs 144.

Our Research Team Views :

Day High Low Rs.52-50 on 29th April 2009
Monthly High Low Rs.56 -37
6M H/L Rs. 56-28

This share has risen sharply more than 90% in the last 2 months. 

Our Recommendation : AVOID better to focus on frontline stocks DLF, India Bulls Reality or HDIL for better returns. Wait for the  weakness in the marekt for buying ; buy on correction in the stock markets.

Sectoral view - Bullish short term

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Market Voices 13-03-09

Today the Indian market witnessed one of the strongest session in recent months. Largecap stocks gained in strength though midcap and smallcap stocks were muted in their gains. Sensex is up 5.3% and Nifty is up 4%. BSE Midcap index was up 0.8%, BSE Smallcap index was up 2.5% over the week. BSE Metals index up 6.7%, BSE Auto index up 6.5%, and BSE Oil & Gas index was up 6.2%.  

It was a cheerful day for the Indian market that closed on a highly positive note. Sensex shut shop at 8756, up 413 points and Nifty at 2719, up 102 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 2.9% and BSE Smallcap index was up 1.9%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 890 against declines of 202 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included DLF, Tata Power and Tata Motors while losers included BPCL, ABB and NTPC.  

Hold long position in RIL, says Rajat Bose, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. But do not buy at current levels because it is trading near its resistance level of Rs 1320, he adds. The stock is at Rs 1282.35, UP 6.7% on the BSE.  

Hold NTPC with long-term view, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials, on Zee Business. Buy more at Rs 165, he adds. The stock is at Rs 170.20, down 2% on the BSE.  »

Hold Nagarjuna Construction for 12 months, says Sailesh Kanani of Angel Broking on CNBC Awaaz. It will give returns of 80-100%, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 40.50, up 4.1% on the BSE.  

The Indian economy is close to bottoming out and it could turn around by Q4 this year, says Sam Mahtani of F&C Investments on CNBC TV18. He expects the second half of the year to be positive backed by the steep decrease in interest rates and aggressive monetary policy actions that was taken over in the past couple of months.  

Stay invested in Axis Bank, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. It is one of those stocks in the private sector which has done pretty well, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 330.55, up 8.6% on the BSE. 

Hold long positions in Nifty for target of 2780 and stop loss of 2660, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.  

It was a stellar day for the Indian market thanks to excellent global cues. Sensex closed at 8789, up 445 points (provisional) and Nifty at 2725, up 108 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 3.1% and BSE Smallcap index was up 1.9%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 870 against declines of 315 on the NSE. This is the largest point and percentage gain for Nifty since December 10, 2008, says NDTV Profit.  

Buy Sesa Goa on dips, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has support at Rs 65 and resistance at Rs 105, he adds. The stock is at Rs 80, up 5.5% on the BSE.  

Go long on Cairn India at Rs 170 with target of Rs 175, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 167, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 169.70, up 3.95% on the BSE.  

Buy DLF when it goes above Rs 150 with target of Rs 162, 180 and 211, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 140, he adds. The stock is currently trading at 153, up 11.8% on the BSE.  

Hold Videocon Industries, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 140-150, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 84.50, up 1.8% on the BSE.  

The Indian market is trading firm with the Nifty above the 2700 mark. Commodity stocks are showing strength. The Asian markets closed on a high. Sensex is trading at 8716, up 372 points and Nifty is at 2709, up 92 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 2.7% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.8%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 887 against declines of 300 on the NSE.  

Buy DLF on dips, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It is worth taking a long call on this stock, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 151.50, up 10.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Ambuja Cement with target of Rs 75 and 86, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 63, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 68.80, up 1.6% on the BSE.  

HSBC maintains a buy call on Reliance Industries with target of Rs 1640, reports CNBC Awaaz. It is expected to give returns of 36% from current levels, it adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1271.50, up 5.8% on the BSE.  

Hold Chambal Fertilisers with stop loss of Rs 32, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. It is trading in the range of Rs 32-42, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 36.10, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

Hold GMR Infra with target of Rs 85, says Rajesh Jain of SMC Global Securities on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 71.50, up 3.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Tata Motors with target of Rs 162 and 172, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 148, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 158.30, up 8.5% on the BSE.  

Buy Dena Bank with target of Rs 36, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 28, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 30.85, up 4.1% on the BSE.  

Buy ICICI Bank on dips, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has a long-term support between Rs 200-250, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 307, up 8% on the BSE.  

The Asian and European markets are trading positive and following the global cues, the Indian market continues to hold up fairly well. Both the largecap and midcap indices are showing good gains. Sensex is trading at 8668, up 324 points and Nifty is at 2695, up 77 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 2.6% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.4%.  

Hold HUL which has support at Rs 185 and Rs 210, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has resistance at Rs 245, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 228.50, up 1.4% on the BSE.  

Exit Indiabulls Real Estate on rally, says Sharmila Joshi of Systematix Shares on NDTV Profit. Invest in some other sector altogether, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 89.60, up 4.7% on the BSE.  

Hold Shree Renuka Sugars with target of Rs 98-100, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. It has support at Rs 75, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 76.75, up 2.1% on the BSE.  

Investors should sell Satyam on rally, says Phani Sekhar of Angel Broking on CNBC Awaaz. There is, however, trading opportunity in this, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 46.60, down 1.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Axis Bank and sell when it reaches Rs 425, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 220-270 and resistance at Rs 352-396, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 326, up 7.1% on the BSE.  

Hold L&T for 2-3 years, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. It will give very good returns, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 603, up 4.7% on the BSE.  

Buy Cairn India at its support level of Rs 150, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. Sell at Rs 168-170, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 169.80, up 4% on the BSE.  

The Indian market continues to look good and cheerful as the Asian markets surge too. The indices are gaining ground. Banks, IT, realty and metals zoom. Sensex is trading at 8654, up 311 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2687, up 68 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.4% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.3%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 852 against declines of 302on the NSE.  

Hold Tech Mahindra at current levels, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 260 on the BSE.  

Hold Rajesh Export and exit when it reaches Rs 30, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 19-20, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 22.30, down 0.9% on the BSE. 

Hold Hero Honda with target of Rs 1040, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 935, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 957.60, down 1.5% on the BSE.  » 

Invest in Escorts with long-term view, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. It will give good returns, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 36.65, down 2.9% on the BSE.  

Hold GVK Power for long term with stop loss of Rs 12, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 18.45, up 1.9% on the BSE.  

Buy SBI, Axis Bank and PNB on dips, says Daljeet Kohli of Emkay Shares and Stock Brokers on CNBC Awaaz. These are safe stocks to invest in, he adds.  

Buy Mahindra & Mahindra at Rs 280, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. It has resistance at Rs 334, crossing which it might go up to Rs 410, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 352.20, up 7% on the BSE. 

Hold Reliance Capital with stop loss below Rs 274, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 303.80, up 7% on the BSE.  

At noon, the market continues to look good, steadying the gains of the day. Most heavyweights are pushing the indices up, except for NTPC which is trading in the red. Sensex is trading at 8625, up 281 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2685, up 68 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.4% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 867 against declines of 268 on the NSE.  

Buy Bharti Airtel at current levels but with strict stop loss, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 550.70, up 0.1% on the BSE. 

Buy Satyam at around Rs 38 and hold for 3 years, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on Zee Business. Stop loss for short term should be Rs 32, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 46.25, down 2.01% on the BSE.  

Buy IDFC on decline at around Rs 40-42, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. One can get returns of 10%, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 47, up 5.2% on the BSE.  

Sell RIL on rally, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. Crucial levels to watch out for are Rs 1260-1280, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1238, up 3% on the BSE.  

Hold ICICI Bank with stop loss of Rs 248, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. It has resistance at Rs 330-350, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 305.50, up 7.5% on the BSE..  

Buy Kotak Mahindra Bank at around Rs 230-210 with trading target of Rs 255-260, says Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 205, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 239, up 3.3% on the BSE.  

Hold Rolta India with stop loss of Rs 38, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Exit when it reaches Rs 47-50, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 43.35, up 4.8% on the BSE.  

An hour into opening, the market is looking good, holding on to the morning's gain. The Asian markets are rallying, too, with Hang Seng and Nikkei looking rather strong. Sensex is trading at 8584, up 244 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2677, up 59 points. CNX Midcap index is up 2.1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.5%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 820 against declines of 249 on the NSE.  

Buy Ashok Leyland on dips with stop loss of Rs 15, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst with LKP Shares, on CNBC Awaaz. It has a crucial level of Rs 17.20, crossing which it might go up to Rs 22, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 17.15, up 3.3% on the BSE.  

Sell Dewan Housing on rally, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. The company is under pressure at the moment, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 53.65, down 0.6% on the BSE.  

Hold Tata Motors with target of Rs 185-195, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 135, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 153.60, up 5.2% on the BSE.  

Hold Tata Steel with target of Rs 165-175, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 160.80, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

Buy Emco with stop loss of Rs 23, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Traders keep target of Rs 31-32, he adds. Investors can expect returns of 25-30%, he says. The stock is currently trading at Rs 29.40, up 13.1% on the BSE.  

Buy Sesa Goa on decline of 5-10%, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 78.80, up 4% on the BSE.  

Go long on Bank Nifty with target of 3525-3550, says Devangshu Dutta, market expert, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of 3375, he adds.  

Sell Wipro on rally at Rs 225 with target of Rs 200, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 230, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 215.95, up 1.8% on the BSE.  

Traders should buy equities today, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He feels that buyers could either take profits or carry their position into Monday.  

The market opens on a reasonably good note today, following a rally in the US market. Autos and financial stocks are leading the gains. Sensex is trading at 8563, up 219 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 2676, up 59 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 401 against declines of 58 on the NSE.  

Go long on Nifty Futures with target of 2690, says Devangshu Dutta, market expert, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of 2580, he adds.  

Some covering by Nifty 2500 Put buyers was seen yesterday, says VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. The Options data now indicates a neutral view with IVs coming down, he adds. He sees resistance for Nifty at 2680 and feels that a higher closing would lead to a short covering rally.  

There could be a short covering rally in the next few days followed by a collapse, says Anil Maghnani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He sees resistance levels for Nifty at 2650 and 2700 and support at 2410 and 2480.  

The bias is on the upside for the near term given the positive global cues, says Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities on CNBC TV18. He feels that the Nifty can go up to 2700, while the key support is at 2500. There are hopes that the Q3 GDP may be revised upward after the good IIP data, he adds

Stock Recommendation DLF Sell

Target price: Rs 124 

Goldman Sachs has maintained its ‘sell’ rating on DLF while reiterating its cautious outlook on the real estate sector. According to the investmentbank, New Delhi-based realty major’s third-quarter results have confirmed a significant slowdown in property sales and construction activity in India. 

“We push back our medium-term development pipeline projections and lower our property price assumptions,” Goldman Sachs said in a report. The investment bank has lowered its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2009-FY2011 by 29-62% and cut its 12-month target price to Rs 124 from Rs 203.

Our Analysis :

The following are the key levels to watch out for DLF

Support 1 Rs.147

Support 2 Rs. 138

Resistance 1 - 163

Resistance 2 - 180

Best is to try buy for short term at support levels and short sell at or near the resistance levels

Realty Shares crash 16th Feb 2009

Nine realty shares fell by 0.12% to 8.62% as the interim general budget did not provide any sops to the realty sector as was expected.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, currently in charge of the finance ministry, presented the interim budget today, 16 February 2009.
At 13:35 IST the BSE Realty index was down 4.48% to 1,521.07. It underperformed the Sensex was was down 3.13% at 9,333.44.
Realty stocks had surged in the past few days on budget hopes. The BSE Realty index had risen 14.7% in past six sessions to 1592.36 on 13 February 2009 from 1388.52 on 5 February 2009.
Sobha Developers (down 0.12%), Parsvnath Developers (down 0.62%), Puravankara Projects (down 0.83%), Akruti City (down 1.05%), Omaxe (down 1.47%), DLF (down 4.23%), Housing Development & Infrastructure (down 5.08%), Unitech (down 5.81%), and Indiabulls Real Estate (down 8.62%), slumped.
The government was expected to announce some relief for the real estate and housing sector, which is crumbling under liquidity crisis and a slowdown in demand. But no such sops were announced.
The previous two stimulus package had left realtors unhappy. As a part fiscal stimulus, the government on 2 January 2009 had allowed the developers of integrated townships to borrow funds from overseas and also asked states to release land for low- and middle-income housing schemes.
The government had also asked the public sector banks to lower rates on home loans up to Rs 20 lakh. But realtors complained that the existing stock of unsold homes cost much more than Rs 20 lakh, so that the interest rate concession on loans up to Rs 20 lakh would not help their sale.
The demand in residential segment has declined in the last six months on account of high interest rates on housing loans and steep rise in property prices in the last 2-3 years.
The BSE Realty index had underperformed the market over the past one month till 13 February 2009, falling 10.33% as compared to the Sensex's 6.21% rise. It had also underperformed the market in the past one quarter, sliding 22.20% as compared to the Sensex's rise of 1.03%.