It has always been among the better metal performers. During bull markets, it is volatile, and on the downside during bear markets but its long term returns over 4-5 years is probably among the highest in this sector.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Buy Sesa Goa on declines
It has always been among the better metal performers. During bull markets, it is volatile, and on the downside during bear markets but its long term returns over 4-5 years is probably among the highest in this sector.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Closing Bell 28th May 2009
The Indian markets recorded another strong day today, possibly taking cues from their Asian peers and hopes of an improved economic and political climate. Among the key Asian markets, Hong Kong and China led the pack of gainers with 5% and 2% gains respectively. Among Indian stocks, those from the metal and realty sectors gained ground while the ones from the pharma and FMCG sectors fell.
The BSE-Sensex and the NSE-Nifty closed with gains of around 185 points (1.3%) and 60 points (1.4%) respectively. The BSE-Midcap and BSE-Smallcap indices were up by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. Rupee was trading at 47.65 to the US dollar at the time of writing.
L&T announced results today. Its standalone and consolidated sales grew by 35% YoY and 38% YoY respectively during FY09. Higher construction material costs and subcontracting charges led to a 0.2% YoY contraction in consolidated operating margins during the fiscal. Margins on a standalone basis contracted by 0.7% YoY. Consolidated net profits (excluding extraordinary items) grew by 31% YoY during FY09. Sharp increase in interest expenses though took some sheen off the bottomline. The company’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 10.5 per share. The company’s E&C segment’s consolidated order backlog stood at Rs 703 bn at the end of March 2009, which is 2.2 times the consolidated sales of the segment in FY09.
The stock of Novartis ended on a strong note on the back of reports that the parent Novartis AG which holds around 51% in the company is likely to revise its open offer price upwards. It is believed that open offer price that was earlier Rs 351 will be revised to a range of Rs 425 and Rs 450 a share. The buyback open offer to increase the parent company’s holding to 90% started on 20th May and will close on the 8th of June.
The United Nations has gotten more pessimistic about the growth of the global economy. In January, the UN had estimated the world economy to shrink by 0.5% during the year 2009. However, it has now revised its estimates downwards, estimating a 2.6% fall instead. A UN spokesperson stated that they are yet to see any positive signals of revival in the economy. However, the organisation has also stated that with a coordinated, development-oriented policy scenario, the world economy would recover to an annual growth of 4% to 5% in 2010 to 2015.
The Indian markets continued to surge further during the previous two hours of trade on the back of continued buying activity among the index heavyweights. Currently, stocks from the metals, auto and pharma sectors are leading the pack of gainers, while select telecom and power stocks are trading weak. The overall advance to decline ratio is poised at 1.8 to 1 on the BSE.
The BSE-Sensex and the NSE-Nifty are trading higher, up by around 160 points and 50 points respectively. The BSE-Midcap and BSE-Smallcap are also trading higher, up by around 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. The rupee is trading at 47.69 to the dollar.
As per a leading business daily, Godrej Consumer has acquired 49% stake in Godrej Sara Lee. This is possible on account of the merger of Godrej ConsumerBiz Private (GCBPL) and Godrej Hygiene Care Private (GHCPL) with the company. These companies together hold 49% stake in Godrej Sara Lee. Godrej Sara Lee is the market leader in household insecticides, air care and hair cream segment with around Rs 2 bn in revenues. The proposed consolidation would strengthen the company’s position in the FMCG market and will scale its ability to pursue growth opportunities. The merger will consolidate the promoters’ holding in Godrej Consumer from 69.7% to 74.8%. Further, the company will also be eyeing Sara Lee’s 51% stake, as the latter is reportedly in talks to sell its global household and personal care portfolios to focus on its core business of food and beverages. The stock of Godrej Consumer is trading firm, while Dabur is in the red.
Auto stocks are trading mixed. While M&M is trading firm, Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland are in the red. As per a leading business daily, Tata Motors has completed its final obligation for the US$ 3 bn bridge loans, which it had taken a year earlier for financing the Jaguar Land Rover acquisition. As such, the company has been able to extend the final maturity of US$ 1 bn by over 18 months to December 2010, while the other obligations were met through a mix of bond issue, rights issue and the proceeds from the divestment. It may be noted that despite the economic crisis globally, which resulted in liquidity tightening, Tata Motors has been able to refinance its loan obligations.
The Indian markets gained further ground during the previous two hours of trade on account of sustained buying activity. Stocks from the steel, engineering and auto are leading the pack of gainers, while select stocks from the telecom, power and energy are trading lower. The overall advance to decline ratio is poised at 1.7 to 1 on the BSE.
The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are trading higher, up by around 150 points and 45 points respectively. The BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices are trading higher by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. The rupee is trading at 47.80 to the dollar.
Energy stocks are trading mixed. While Reliance Industries and ONGC are trading higher, HPCL and BPCL are trading lower. As per a leading business daily, Reliance Industries (RIL) has discovered 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas reserves in D-3 and D-6 blocks of the KG basin. The estimates are from UK based Hardy Oil and gas which has 10% stake in these blocks. RIL has the remaining stake. It may be noted that RIL also owns the D-6 block in the same fields, which is estimated to hold up to 50 tcf of gas reserves and 143 m barrels of oil. This is positive development for the Indian natural gas industry in general and RIL in particular as it creates another significant source of revenue.
Pharma stocks are trading mixed. While Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma are trading higher, Wockhardt is trading lower. As per a leading business daily, Wockhardt is likely to sell its German business Espharma GmbH in order to raise cash. It is believed that the company is in talks with Lindopharm GmbH, a Germany based company for the same. However, the size of the deal has not been disclosed. It may be noted that Wockhardt acquired Espharma for US$ 11 m in 2004. However, the company has been facing problems to service its debt of Rs 30 bn. Also, the dynamics of the German market which has changed from branded generics to unbranded generics and the pricing pressure is taking a heavy toll on Espharma.
In line with its Asian peers, the Indian markets have started the day on a positive note. Software, energy, engineering and power stocks are trading firm, while select telecom and banking stocks are in the red. The overall advance to decline ratio is poised at 2 to 1 on the NSE. As regards global markets, the US ended lower on the back of sharp rise in Treasury yields coupled with news of looming bankruptcy for General Motors. The European markets closed higher yesterday, while the Asian indices are currently trading firm. Crude oil prices have gone up nearly 20% since the beginning of this month.
The BSE Sensex is trading higher by around 58 points. The NSE Nifty is up 36 points. The BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap index are both trading higher. The rupee is trading at 48.06 to the dollar.
BHEL announced its FY09 results yesterday. The net sales grew 36% YoY during FY09, led by a strong growth in both its segments. BHEL’s ‘power’ segment grew by 34% YoY, while its ‘industry’ segment recorded a growth of 21% YoY. During FY09, the company’s operating margins contracted by 2.9% YoY owing to higher raw material costs (as a percentage of sales). Net profits grew by 10% YoY during FY09. This is mainly on account of BHEL’s poor performance at the operating level. During 4QFY09, the company’s topline and bottom line grew by 46% YoY and 21% YoY respectively. The Board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 8 per share (that, along with an interim dividend of Rs 9 per share paid during the year, leads to a dividend yield of 0.8%). Engineering stocks are trading firm.
Software major, Infosys Technologies is seeing good outsourcing business opportunities in India and the Middle East. The company on account of the global economic downturn has been facing pressure in the developed markets. As per the company, around 89% of its clients have indicated a cutback in their technology budgets. Hence it is looking at India and the Middle East. The company has won three deals in these markets over the last five months. Amidst the ongoing financial crisis and economic slowdown in the US, Infosys registered 10% QoQ revenue growth in sales from the domestic market. However, the company witnessed a decline in sales from the European region (by around 3% QoQ) and North America (by around 2% QoQ). The management has estimated 3% to 7% lower earnings in FY10 as compared to FY09. Software stocks are trading higher.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Market Voices 19th May 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Market analysis for 23-02-09
3:10 PM: Ambuja Cements (Rs 69) looks good as a long term bet.
The stock may have some weak spells in the near run. Once demand for new homes pick up and infrastructure development gets back on the rails, then one can see some sharp rallies in the cement space.
2:31 PM: Alstom Projects (Rs 318) can find resistance at this level. If it manages to trade firm for a few sessions, then a rise to Rs 400 is likely.
On the downside, the stock has support at Rs 260 and then at Rs 230 levels.
2:22 PM: DLF (Rs 153) can weaken to Rs 140 in the near run. Due to short-covering, the stock may move up a bit over the next couple of sessions, but a sustained upmove looks quite unlikely for now.
2:16 PM: Hindalco (Rs 38.90) is all set to breach a crucial support at Rs 38. The stock, if it does so, can drift down to Rs 33 or even lower. For now, fresh buying can be avoided at the counter.
2:00 PM: Investors willing to wait long term can go in for NTPC at 5 - 10% down from its current levels. The stock is traded around Rs 178 at present. It had touched a low of Rs 113 last October.
1:54 PM: Sugar stocks Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini can move up sharply and give good returns over a short run. Sharp declines can be used as opportunities to increase exposure. Bajaj Hindustan (Rs 45) can be tried at Rs 40 - 42 levels.
1:48 PM: Stay invested in GTL Infrastructure (Rs 31) with a stop loss near Rs 27. The stock can give decent returns over a 6 - 9 month period. Fresh buying can be restricted to modest levels.
1:40 PM: Wipro (Rs 213) can be retained with a stop loss at Rs 180. The stock can drift down in the near term but its long term prospects appear quite bright.
Oracle Financial Services, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech can be bought at sharp declines from current levels.
1:30 PM: Reliance Communications (Rs 156) can give good returns over a long run. The stock is near October 2008 low of Rs 148.60 and is very likely to drift below that mark. One can use sharp dips to increase exposure.
1:20 PM: Power stocks NTPC, Areva, Alstom, NLC and Power Grid can be retained for long term. However, since the market is likely to see some big sell-offs in the near run, fresh buying can be avoided as far as possible.
1:12 PM: Tata Motors (Rs 133.40) can be bought at declines. One can accumulate this stock in a staggered way with a long term view.
1:06 PM: Investors with a long term view can continue to hold Aurobindo Pharma (cmp Rs 145). For now, a stop loss can be placed at Rs 120. A modest upmove is likely even over a short run.
12:58 PM: Praj Industries (Rs 52) can be retained with a stop loss at Rs 47. The stock can give fairly good returns over a medium run. Thermax, Alstom Projects and Punj Lloyd are among the other good stocks for long term from the capital goods space.
12:50 PM: ABB (Rs 387) can be picked up at declines. The stock had hit a low of Rs 365.20 recently and a fall to that level looks very likely in the near run.
12:43 PM: SBI (Rs 1033) can move on to Rs 1045 or even higher if current momentum at the counter sustains for a while. The stock has support at Rs 1020 and weakness around that level can result in a fall to Rs 1010 or further down.
12:37 PM: Nagaruna Construction Company (Rs 43) can drift down to Rs 40 if it continues to trade weak for a couple of sessions. Those looking at long term can continue to hold the stock and look at buying more at sharp declines.
12:30 PM: Educomp Solutions (Rs 1613) can weaken further. Fresh buying in the stock can be avoided for now. Those holding the stock can lighten commitments at rallies.
12:23 PM: One looking at long term can accumulate PSU bank stocks in a staggered way. Andhra Bank, UCO Bank, syndicate Bank and Vijaya Bank are among the good low priced bank stocks. Among the big ones, SBI and PNB look good.
12:14 PM: Some short-covering is expected ahead of February series derivatives expiry. The rallies can be used to lighten commitments to an extent. One should refrain from building up big positions as the condition is still not conducive for a sustained upmove.
12:08 PM: JSW Steel (Rs 188) can drift down to Rs 170, a new 52- week low. On the upmove, the stock is likely to face resistance at Rs 200 and then around Rs 230. A strong breakout at Rs 230 can result in a rise to Rs 290 or even higher.
12:00 PM: Oracle Financial Services (Rs 684) can give good returns over a 9 - 12 month span. Investors long at the counter can continue to hold the stock. Fresh buying can be considered at 5 - 10% down from current levels.
11:52 AM: Maruti Suzuki (Rs 630) can be retained for long term.Exposure to the stock can be increased at declines. Hero Honda, Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto can also be bought at sharp declines from current levels.
11:45 AM: Traders with a good appetite for risk can go in for Satyam Computer Services for some short term gains.
The stock, currently traded at Rs 44.50, can move on to Rs 55 - 58.
11:32 AM: The Nifty (2702) has recovered some lost ground in mid morning trade. The index now has some good support at 2675. Weakness there can result in a fall to 2660 or 2650. On the upmove, it can rise to 2725 where some resistance is seen.
11:26 AM: Investors looking at long term can continue to hold RNRL (Rs 42). More quantities can be bought at sharp declines from here. For now, a stop loss can be placed at Rs 36.
11:19 AM: Cairn India (Rs 154) can move up sharply this afternoon. One willing to take chances can go in for the stock now. A stop loss can be placed near Rs 150.
11:06 AM: Vijaya Bank, UCO Bank, Syndicate Bank and Andhra Bank may not see a significant downside from here.
Investors with a long term view can pick up these stocks at current levels or slightly lower for some solid returns over the next 12 - 18 months.
10:59 AM: Tata Teleservices (Rs 23) can be retained for now with a stop loss near Rs 19. Fresh buying can be avoided for the time being.
10:54 AM: One can stay invested in KEC International (Rs 138) with a stop loss around Rs 110.
Though the stock may not move up significantly in the near run, its long term prospects remain fairly bright.
10:48 AM: With global economy in a deep recession, the market will continue to struggle in the near run. The Sensex (8657) may re-test its October 2008 low of 7697.39 before showing some signs of a recovery. It is advisable to keep exposure to the market at affordable levels. Being selective with regard to fresh exposure will help one in the long run.
10:41 AM: HCL Technologies (Rs 102) has hit a new low of Rs 100.10 today. Investors with a long term plan can continue to hold the stock and look at buying more at declines from here. Though the stock may find the going tough in the near run, its long term prospects remain quite bright.
10:35 AM: Some leading analysts and brokerage houses expect Pantaloon Retail to outperform the market. The stock has taken a beating this morning, losing more than 7% at Rs 134. Investors with a medium to long term plan can pick up the stock at Rs 110 - 115 levels.
10:28 AM: Shriram EPC has been awarded an order worth Rs 70 crore for wind turbines from Cape Energy Private Limited, an associate of Bergurruen Holdings, a PE funded company with infrastructure and real estate development in India. The thinly traded stock, is down 1.65% at Rs 90 now. It had touched a low of Rs 85 late last month.
10:18 AM: Power Grid Corporation (Rs 87) can be retained for long term with a stop loss near Rs 52.One can look at buying more of this stock at sharp declines from here.
10:12 AM: Bank and realty stocks are among the worst hit in the sell-off this morning. Mirroring their fall, the Bankex and Realty have lost around 3.3% now. Though some modest buying is likely at lower levels, it is going to be a slippery ride for several bank stocks in the very short run.
Realty stocks may take longer time to bounce back into the reckoning. Still, not many from this space are expected to regain even 20 - 25% of what they have lost from their historic highs.
9:58 AM: The market has opened on a negative note this morning due to weak global cues.
The Sensex, after opening at 8707.35, around 135 points down, has slipped to 8670.54 now, netting a loss of 172.46 points or 1.95%.
The Nifty has lost 45.30 points or 1.66% at 2691.15.
DLF, ICICI Bank, RIL, HDFC, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Infra, HDFC Bank, Sterlite, SAIL, ABB, M&M and Tata Steel have declined sharply