Buy GE Shipping

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Godrej Properties - Buy

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Fortis Healthcare - Buy

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Exide Industries - Buy

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Dena Bank - Buy

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Cummins India - Buy

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Century Textiles - Buy

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Cadila Healthcare - Buy

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Bhushan Steels - Buy

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Bharat Forge Buy

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Buy Ashok Leyland

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Apollo Tyres - Buy

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Amtek Auto - Buy

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BSE NSE Outlook for 25 Jan 2010

Spooked by disappointing corporate earnings and fall in US markets, markets posted their steepest weekly fall since October 2009. On the BSE, the Sensex dropped 695 points to end the week at 16,860 and the Nifty on the NSE shed 216 points to close at 5,036. Volumes in both cash and derivatives segments hit record levels during the week reflecting the ‘run’ to cut positions. Market breadth turned extremely weak with sentiment turning negative on the reports of aggressive selling from FIIs. Market players attribute weak support from domestic financial institutions to their plans to subscribe to the forthcoming PSU IPOs. With earnings season coming to close in next week, the markets will focus on the forthcoming Union Budget. The overall performance of Indian companies on the third quarter earnings has been better-than-expected and re-rating of earnings is overdue, analysts feel. Global markets are worried about President Barack Obama’s bank plan and China’s lending curbs. Markets are likely to be highly volatile next week on the account of F&O settlement, RBI credit policy and outcome of US Fed meet. Protect profits with trailing stops. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 16,500-17,280 for the Sensex and 4,830-5,180 for the Nifty. Friday’s lows 16,608 and 4,955 are key supports for the indices, a breach of which can take them to 16,280 and 4,830 points. Futures & Options With markets moving out of their recent trading range, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Overall open interest increased by 12 per cent to over Rs 1,25,000 crore. Option activity-call writing at 5,000-level indicates that for settlement closing Nifty may not be able to cross 5,100-level unless something dramatic happens. Initiate fresh positions only if Nifty futures close above 5,070. Open interest in stock futures shot up by eight per cent reflecting bull-run in select stocks. Among the stock futures that witnessed short build-up are ONGC, Unitech, L&T, Tata Steel, HDFC, Punj, IVRCL, PNB and GAIL. Ahead of RBI policy meet, realty stocks turned weak on persistent selling. Avoid fresh shorts at current levels. Start accumulation for medium term. Spooked by L&T’s performance, capital goods counters fell. But the present correction is likely to be short lived, say industry insiders. The performance of Punj Lloyd indicates that it is focusing on bottom line. Buy for unexpected sharp gains. Metal counters are likely to swing to the tunes of dollar movement Spurt in turnovers at the bourses spell good times for broking houses. Buy India Infoline at current levels for target price of Rs 160 in coming weeks. Mphasis and HCL Tech look good for surprising gains. Buy Mphasis ahead of results for sharp returns. Check out on roll over positions to spot winners for Budget series. Buy during weakness. Buy only after reactions confirming higher support. Stock Scan JSW Energy will commission additional capacity of nearly 2,145 MW by December 2010. Merchant power sales now constitute 73 per cent. It has PPA for 55 per cent of the projects under implementation and stands to capitalise on higher merchant tariffs. Third quarter results reflect good times, buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 200 in next few months. Adani Power is setting up power generation projects with an aggregate capacity of 6,600 MW. The company’s Mundra Power Project is scheduled to be operational by February 2010. Auto boom has benefited auto component manufacturers. Rico Auto is a leading player in the ferrous and aluminum castings space. It has presence in engine, transmission, braking and suspension parts. It is a leading supplier to companies like Hero Honda, Maruti and others. It has expanded its product portfolio with its recent ventures with foreign majors. Buy for a target price of Rs 40 in medium term. Autoline Industries has embarked on the inorganic growth path that could increase revenues by 30 per cent in the next two years. The company has strong presence in press metals and also makes components like brakes, clutches and pedals. It is a leading supplier to Tata Motors and other auto majors. RJ holds 10 per cent equity in the company. Buy at current levels for long term target of Rs 250. Motherson Sumi Systems is the largest wiring harness manufacturer and has recently acquired UK-based Visiocorp to gain leadership in rear view mirror segment. Gaining prestigious clients like BMW, GM, Ford, the company’s acquisition of Visiocorp is a likely game changer for the company. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 200. C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns. Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

BSE NSE Outlook for 11-15 Jan 10

Market mood indicates horizontal or downward move in the next week on likely impact of rupee appreciation on future earnings of some of the major IT players

Despite buoyant trend in the international market, the Indian market continued to look southward for straight second day on concerns of appreciation rupee that could have a significant bearing on the realizations of the Indian IT sector. Thus IT stocks, besides the metal and the banking stocks edged lower during Friday 8^th January 2010. The S&P CNX Nifty corrected 18.35 points during the day to close at 5244.75. Although for the full week under review the benchmark underlying rose by 43.70 points. All throughout the previous week the nifty future closed at a premium to the underlying. The average volume in the futures and options (F&O) segment during the week under review was Rs 51350.80 crore, thus being insignificant despite the extended trading hours since the start of the new calendar year.

The nifty future started the week with excellent long built-up however during the past 2 days it shed some of its open interest (OI) due to profit booking. For the full week though the nifty January 2010 series added 21.54 lakh shares in OI to take the total OI as on 8^thJanuary 2010 to 2.42 crore shares. Similar was the trend in some of the frontline stock futures as well. Reliance January series for e.g. added 26.24 lakh shares in OI to take its total OI to 1.13 crore shares, while Tata Motors and Unitech added 15.12 lakh shares and 63.27 lakh shares in OI. Tata Steel during the week though shed its OI by 6.87 lakh shares. Sail, Bharti and Rcom also added OI by 12.18 lakh shares, 14.99 lakh shares and 14.32 lakh shares respectively during the week under review. Maruti also added 10.62 lakh shares in OI during the week ended 8^th January 2010.

Although the week started on a positive note, there was evident profit booking to wards the end of the week. Besides there were some negative indicators in the nifty option front as there was aggressive call writing at the 5200 and the 5300 strikes. Similarly there was some covering of put earlier wrote at the 5000 and 5100 strikes. Besides there was fresh put buying at the 5200 strike put. Thus the indications are clear negative.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
4-Jan-10	7411	15019	18075	2054	42559
5-Jan-10	10499	22359	23829	2913	59599
6-Jan-10	9636	21199	19377	2490	52702
7-Jan-10	10029	20382	20455	2546	53412
8-Jan-10	8568	19503	17843	2567	48482
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 185.26 crore shares. Of these major additions in OI was witnessed in the stock options segment, while there was fair addition in index options and stock futures front as well. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 8th January 2010
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	185.26	3.21
Index Future	2.77	-0.02
Stock Future	149.39	0.84
Index Options	9.15	0.23
Stock options	23.94	2.16
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE

The most active options in the January series were the 5200 to 5400 strike calls and 4900 to 5200 puts. Call strike witnessed addition of OI due to fresh call writing at the above mentioned strikes, while the puts witnessed fresh buying. The OI in 5200, 5300 and 5400 strikes increased by 1.04 lakh shares, 4.56 lakh shares and 0.74 lakh shares to 29.49 lakh shares, 48.09 lakh shares and 43.67 lakh shares respectively. The OI in 5000 and 5100 strike puts decreased by 0.28 lakh shares and 0.47 lakh shares to 52.49 lakh shares and 37.17 lakh shares respectively. The 5200 put witnessed fresh buying to take its total OI to 45.40 lakh shares as on Friday. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (January 2010 series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 5200	2948750
Nifty 5300	4808500
Nifty 5400	4367200
Nifty 5600	1380200
Put
Nifty 4900	2906350
Nifty 5000	5248900
Nifty 5100	3717250
Nifty 5200	4540350
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in January series stock futures on 8th January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
BOSCHLTD	11800	6300	115
TECHM	718800	181200	34
CUMMINSIND	210900	52250	33
HCLTECH	2191800	414700	23
MOSERBAER	5516775	1029600	23
SUNTV	166000	30000	22
CROMPGREAV	513000	70000	16
TCS	5004000	572000	13
PFC	823200	86400	12
HDIL	9703638	989172	11
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in January series stock futures on 8th January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
BHUSANSTL	406000	-100000	-20
APIL	465000	-84000	-15
HINDZINC	518500	-73500	-12
KSOILS	10507900	-1345200	-11
TULIP	140000	-13000	-8
IVRCLINFRA	2989000	-268000	-8
RANBAXY	2795200	-231200	-8
SAIL	7844850	-610200	-7
CHENNPETRO	1492200	-95400	-6
ABB	1126500	-72000	-6
* No of shares Source: NSE

Besides the global action the quarter result of some of the major market players that could be declared in the proceeding weeks will provide either directional trigger. The mood indicates horizontal or downward move in the next week, as the rupee appreciation concerns would impact the future earnings of some of the major IT players, which could have a dent on the index.

Source : Capitalmarket.com

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Market Khabar 11 Jan 2010

The first week of 2010 started off nicely for the markets with indices closing near 22-month-high.

On the BSE, the Sensex ended 0.43 per cent or 75 points higher at 17,540 and the Nifty on the NSE inched up by 0.84 per cent or 44 points to 5,245. However, the real action was in midcap and smallcap stocks, both the BSE Midcap and smallcap indices moved up by 3.4 per cent and 4.1 per cent.

Strong FII buying and positive comments from the Prime Minister that India will return to 9-10 per cent growth rate kept the sentiment positive. Whether the market can sustain and bui-ld on last year’s gains will depend on corporate earnings, the government’s willingness to keep reforms on fast track and no negative surprises from global markets. Near-term direction of markets will depend on third quarter earnings season. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 17,160-18,000 for the Sensex and 5,080-5500 for the Nifty. Immediate supports exist at 17,320 and 17,080 and 5,160 and 5,080.

Expect resistance to the indices on upside at 17,740 and 17,960 and 5,330 and 5,420. The directional movement could be negative in short term, if the indices fall below 17,200 and 5,175. The movement of indices in narrow range clearly indicates that individual stocks would do better than the indices.

Knowing what stocks to avoid can be as important as knowing what to buy. No stock is perfect; every stock will have some drawback.

FUTURES & OPTIONS

The January series has started on a quiet note marked by low volumes and low volatility. Sentiment indicators like implied volatility, put/call ratio, open interest and VIX indicate possible increase in volatility again.

Punters advice strangle strategy — Buy Nifty5300 strike call option and Nifty5200 strike put option to take advantage of directional breakout after the onset of results season.

A strong rupee triggered selling pressure in IT stocks. However, the results of Infosys will set the tone for the sector in the week ahead. Savvy players are buying into Wipro, OFSS, Tech Mahindra, Moser Baer and Mphasis. Buy Mphasis for a target price of Rs 825.

The profit booking in auto stocks likely to be short lived. Use sharp declines to accumulate Ashok Leyland and M&M. Metal and cement stocks are likely to continue their upward journey after a mild sell off.

Ahead of RBI’s credit policy review, heightened activity indicated in banking counters. Buy private banks like Axis Bank and Kotak Bank for short term gains. Realty stocks are beginning to show good strength. Hold Unitech, IBREL and DLF for gains.

Among the side counters, India Infoline, Petronet LNG, Sun TV, Nagarjuna Const. and HCC are good for a target of Rs 175, Rs 90, Rs 390, Rs 195 and Rs 185. Sebi’s plan to standardise lot sizes for F&O stocks would make it convenient for the traders to remember lot sizes and improve volumes in the derivative segment.

STOCK SCAN

Mundra Port and SEZ runs India’s largest private port, whose cargo traffic is gro-wing at four times the speed of other major ports. The real trump card is the 100 sq km industrial zone, where Mundra is attracting factories such as Alstom-Bharat Forge JV for power equipment and others that will provide the port’s future traffic. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 900 in next few months.

Escorts is tur-ning out to be a good turnaround candidate after it focused on tractor and construction machinery segments. To tap good opportunities from railways, the company has introduced four new railway products for coaches and wagons. Buy for a target price of Rs 225.

Minda Industries designs, develops and manufactures switches and batteries for 2/3/4 wheelers and off-road vehicles. It enjoys more than 70 per cent market share for switches in the two- and three-wheeler segment and is amongst the top few globally. Buy only on declines to Rs 240 for a target price of Rs 400.

Autoline Industries supplies sheet metal components, sub-assemblies and assemblies for large OEMs in the automobile industry. Buy for target price of Rs 200.

ZF Steering manufactures, and assembles mechanical steering gears, hydraulic power steering gears and other gear assemblies. A sharp increase in exports and a robust demand from domestic original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) augur well for the company. Buy for a long term target price of Rs 500.

Shrewd market players are accumulating BGR Energy, Sunil Hitech, Ramkrishna Forgings, Solectron EM and Indian Hume Pipes. Sharp gains indicated from current levels in next few months.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

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Indian Stock Market Weekly review 24 Dec 2009

Bulls have reason to celebrate as last minute shopping before Christmas has taken the Nifty to a new high this week. The Finance Minister's comments on GDP growth coincided with the gains. Positive discussions about divestment programmes in Cabinet meeting, better cues from global markets also added to the upsurge. Finally, both the BSE 30-share Sensex and Nifty added 3.8% each. The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,361 and low of 16,578 while NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5798 and low of 4,943. The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were NTPC (up 10.7%), Tata Motors (up 9.5%), Tata Steel (up 9.1%), Hindalco Inds (up 9%) and Reliance Infrastructure (up 6.7%). The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Cipla (down 2.5%), Hindustan Unilever (down 1.2%), Bharti Airtel (down 1%), Ranbaxy Labs (down 0.9%) and ACC (down 0.6%). The BSE IT Index (up 2.6%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Sasken Communication (up 11.1%), HCL Tech (up 4.7%), TCS (up 3.7%), Wipro (up 3.4%) and Mphasis (up 3%). The top losers were Oracle Financial (down 0.4%) and Financial Tech (down 0.2%). The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the Consumer Durables sector were Whirlpool (up 8.5%), Titan (up 7%), Samtel Color (up 4.5%), Videocon Industries (up 2.5%) and Blue Star (up 0.6%). The BSE Healthcare Index (down 0.1%): The top gainer in the Pharma space was Glenmark Pharma. The stock rose over 8.8% during the week. Glenmark Generics received a tentative approval from the USFDA for two drugs. The estimated market size of one of the drugs Pramipexole Dihydrochloride, the generic version of Boehringer Ingelheim's Mirapex tablets, is estimated at US$487mn. Sun Pharma surged over 5% during the week. The company’s attempts to acquire Taro Pharma received a major boost with the Israeli company’s second-largest minority shareholder, Templeton Asset Management, asking the shareholders not to support the existing management, to vote against their decisions and to demand audited financial statements Panacea Biotec (up 4.6%), Glaxosmithkline (up 4.1%) and Strides Arcolab (up 3.7%) were among the other notable gainers. The top losers in were Suven Life Science (down 4%), Natco Pharma (down 3.5%), Piramal Healthcare (down 3%), Cipla (down 2.5%) and Orchid Chem (down 1.9%). The BSE Banking Index (up 4%): The top gainers in the banking space were Yes Bank (up 7.5%), Axis Bank (up 4.8%), Canara Bank (up 4.4%) and OBC (up 4.2%). ICICI Bank surged 5% during the week. According to reports, the bank plans to raise up to Rs12bn via bonds. The BSE Auto Index (up 2%): The top gainers in the auto space were Tata Motors (up 9.5%), Hero Honda (up 4.3%), Eicher Motors (up 3.4%), Hindustan Motors (up 2%) and Swaraj Mazda (up 1.6%). Bajaj Auto was the top loser. The stock fell 1.4% during the week. The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 4.8%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Gujarat NRE Coke (up 15.8%), Great Offshore (up 13%), Essar Oil (up 4.9%) and HPCL (up 4%). Reliance Industries surged 4% during the week. The company made a gas discovery in one of its exploration blocks in the Krishna Godavari basin off the country's east coast. Great Offshore surged over 13% during the week. Bharati Shipyard concluded its open offer for an additional 20% shares in the company. Following the open offer, Bharati holds 43.17% in Great Offshore. The top losers in the oil & gas space were Hindustan Oil (down 1.1%) and ONGC (down 0.3%). The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 2.4%):The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Dredging Corp (up 8.5%), BEML (up 8.4%), HEG (up 8.3%), Praj Industries (up 7%) and Jyoti Structures (up 6.6%). The top losers in the Capital Goods space were Gammon India (down 2.7%), ELGI Equipments (down 2.4%), SKF India (down 2.3%), Alfa Laval India (down 0.8%) and Carborundum Universal (down 0.3%). The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Mangalam Cement (up 16.1%), Binani Indus (up 7.3%), Dalmia Cement (up 4.8%), India Cements (up 3.6%) and Prism Cement (up 3%) The top losers were Kakatiya Cement (down 2.2%), Madras Cements (down 1.9%), Birla Corp (down 1.6%), Ultratech Cement (down 1.6%) and JK Cements (down 1.1%). Shares of Ambuja Cement gained 2.7% during the week. According to report released by IIFL during the week stated, “We retain our positive view on Ambuja Cements (ACL) post our recent management visit. We expect ACL’s realisation to be the least negatively affected in the months ahead among the large cement players in India, thanks to the company’s better regional sales mix. ACL’s capacity expansion projects are nearing completion, so we expect volume growth to accelerate in CY10. Benefits from the company stopping clinker purchase from 2QCY10, higher captive power generation and improved volume growth will negate the negative impact of decline in realisation, in our view. At a PER of 11x, EV/EBIDTA of 6x and EV/tonne of US$124 on CY10ii estimates, ACL is trading at reasonable valuations, in our view. We retain ADD on the stock”. The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom were Gemini Comm (down 5.4%), Shyam Telecom (down 2.3%), WWIL (down 2.3%) and Bharti Airtel (down 1%). The top gainers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (up 1.9%), Tata Comm (up 0.8%), MTNL (up 0.8%) and RCom (up 0.5%). The Realty Sector (up 4%): The top gainers in the real estate space were Akruti City (up 12.5%), Parsvnath (up 4.6%), HDIL (up 4.5%), Sobha Developers (up 4.2%) and Ansal Props (up 2.3%). The top losers were Anant Raj Indus (down 2.7%), Mahindra Lifespace (down 1.8%) and Unitech (down 0.7%). The Metals sector (up 6.8%): The top gainer in the metals sector was Adhunik Metaliks. The stock rose over 12% during the week. IDFC Project Equity Company will invest Rs2.5bn through its India Infrastructure Fund in a 540MW plant being built by Adhunik Power & Natural Resources in Jamshedpur. SAIL (up 11.3%), Tata Steel (up 9.1%), Tata Sponge (up 8.7%) and Tata Metaliks (up 8.6%) were among the other top gainers. The top losers were Monnet Ispat (down 2.2%) and Jindal Stainless (down 0.7%). Source : IIFL Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Market Khabar 28 Dec 09

On the back of the Union finance minister's statement that the economy would
grow by eight per cent, the announcement of fast track divestment of some PSUs,
good advance tax numbers and positive global cues, markets bounced back during
the week ended.

On the BSE, the Sensex gained 641 points to close at 17,361 and the Nifty on the
NSE logged 191 points to end at 5,178. Market breadth was good indicating the
`return' of some retail buying interest. Renewed buying from foreign
institutional investors ahead of Christmas vacation surprised bears and
triggered short covering.

Barring major negative news, market performance in the week ahead is likely to
be similar to that of previous one due to only three trading sessions in the
week and F&O settlement.

Chartists predict a trading range of 17,090-17,800 for the Sensex and
5,080-5,360 for the Nifty. Short term supports for the indices are at 17,180 and
16,890 and 5,100 and 5,020. Expect indices to encounter resistance at 17,500 and
17,740 and 5,240 and 5,330. Hold longs if indices sustain above last week highs.
The week ahead will not only usher in a new year but also a new decade.

If present Nifty companies maintain 10.5 per cent CAGR of EPS through out the
next decade, Nifty — by 2020 — can either touch 17,600 in the bullish senario
with P/E of 28 or 6600 in the bearish case with P/E of 10.5. Nifty can touch
10,100 by 2020, even if present P/E of 18 is maintained in the next ten years.

The market is most dangerous when it looks best; it is most inviting when it
looks worst. Don't buy in a hurry-investigate each stock thoroughly before
buying.

Futures & Options
Despite the holidays, the derivative segment witnessed robust volumes during the
week ended. Overall open interest rose sharply by nine per cent to nearly Rs
1,30,000 crore reflecting the underlying bullish undertone.

Nifty OI PCR at 1.48 indicates that further bear squeeze is not ruled out and
that 5,050-5,100 band will be a good support zone.

Among the stock futures looking good for further gains in January series are
Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors from the autos; Hotel Leela and Indian Hotels from
hospitality; Ranbaxy, Biocon and Sun Pharma from pharma; BEML, BHEL, Crompton
Greaves and L&T from capital goods; HCC, IVRCL and Reliance Infra from
infrastructure; Tata Steel, Hindalco and SAIL from metals.

Side counters which are likely to attract heightened attention are EKC, Aditya
Birla Nuevo, Siemens, GTL, PTC and Opto Circuits. Cement stocks are witnessing
renewed buying. Buy ACC for a target price of Rs 950. Good long build up seen in
realty counters. Hold positions for further gains. Power and infrastructure
counters are witnessing good rollovers. Stay invested for present.
With the week ahead dotted with holidays and that many market participants are
on vacation, it can be an unpredictable week with stock specific moves amidst
low volumes.

Low trading volumes tend to compound small moves, causing high market
volatility. Take a break and enjoy holidays.

Stock scan
AIA Enginee-ring is the world's second largest manufacturer of high chro-me mill
internals and specialises in their design and installation in cement, mining and
thermal power ind-ustries. Powered by steady demand, the company has posted good
results for the first half of current fiscal. Buy on declines for a price target
of Rs 500.

Sterlite Technologies, formed out of the demerger of telecom division of
Sterlite Industries, in 2000 is one of the largest producers of optical fiber
and telecom cables and power transmission conductors. It has undertaken
aggressive expansion without any increase in debt-equity ratio leading to a
significant rise in operating margins.

Despite a rally in the stock price, it is trading at a discount to its three
year median P/E. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 500.

FDC is a debt-free pharma firm with a presence in oral rehydration salts
(Electral brand), ophthalmic, anti-infectives, derma, respiratory and
hae-matinics segments. Sources said the company has bagged large contract
manufacturing orders. Buy at the current levels for target price of Rs 100.

Orbit Corp has raised funds through QIP route and is expected to launch four new
projects in one year. Focus on volume and visibility of earnings from existing
projects make the stock a good bet from realty space. Buy for target price of Rs
400 in medium term.

As we move into 2010, an important lesson learnt from 2009 is: "If you wait too
long to buy, until every uncertainty is removed at the bottom of a market cycle,
you may be left waiting forever. Any time is a good time to invest, so long as
you pick stock diligently.

Wishing our readers a very happy and prosperous new year.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed
and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly
recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial
investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the
basis of recommendations in these columns.

source : deccan.com

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BSE NSE Outlook for 21-24 Dec 09

Market will be extremely volatile with downward bias

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement

The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the psychological 5000 level during 18^th December 2009. All throughout the week the market was volatile with negative close on each day. For the full week ended 18^th December 2009 the nifty fell 129.60 points to close at 4987.70 on Friday. Speculation that the Reserve Bank may tighten monetary policy and the expectation of CRR hike further dented the market during the day. In the futures and option (F&O) front the market traded mix with rather mix signals although the overall trend was negative. The average volume in the F&O segment during the week under review stood higher at Rs 72936.35 crore. The nifty December future added 2.74 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.45 crore shares while the nifty January future added 5.80 lakh shares in OI on Friday 18^th December 2009 to take the total OI to 34.89 lakh shares. All throughout the week the nifty December future shed OI to the tune of 25.93 lakh shares.

On the stock futures front most of the frontline stock futures shed December OI with simultaneous increase in OI in the January series. Most of the OI increase in January series was due to fresh short positions being created. December stock futures overall shed 2.04 crore shares in OI on Friday while 2.87 crore shares OI was added in the January stock futures. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors shed 4.58 lakh shares, 21.41 lakh shares and 27.37 lakh shares in OI during the week under review. ICICI Bank, Sail, Bharti, Rcom and Maruti also shed OI during the week.

Reliance January OI increased by 1.82 lakh shares to take the total OI to 7.96 lakh shares, January series Tata Steel and Tata Motors OI increased by 2.04 lakh shares and 6.42 lakh shares to 26.14 lakh shares and 28.15 lakh shares respectively. January series ICICI Bank OI increased by 5.40 lakh shares to 24.07 lakh shares, while Bharti OI increased by 1.77 lakh shares to 22.91 lakh shares.

In the nifty option front there were negative signals as fresh call writing was observed in the 4900 to 5200 strikes. Besides 4800 and 4900 strike puts witnessed fresh addition of OI.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
27-Nov-09	24665	19895	49581	1934	96075
30-Nov-09	17464	17199	30912	1973	67548
1-Dec-09	12606	17793	28166	2091	60657
2-Dec-09	11866	19831	22893	2126	56715
3-Dec-09	14559	18200	25938	1964	60660
4-Dec-09	17412	17490	34873	1756	71531
7-Dec-09	14002	14780	27395	1864	58041
8-Dec-09	17641	17741	31994	2052	69429
9-Dec-09	15259	16937	27174	1945	61314
10-Dec-09	14415	15059	26852	1658	57983
11-Dec-09	17440	16121	35873	1898	71332
14-Dec-09	16342	15212	40475	1666	73694
15-Dec-09	15450	16638	35621	2013	69721
16-Dec-09	16824	17380	39950	1977	76131
17-Dec-09	16561	16550	38810	1777	73698
18-Dec-09	15397	15584	38544	1912	71437
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 192.97 crore shares, thus gaining by 1.86 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day, however OI increased by 9.76 crore shares as compared to the previous week. Increase in week-on-week OI was due to increased activity in Stock futures and option segment whose OI increased by 4.44 crore shares and 4.49 crore shares respectively on a week-on-week basis. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 18th December 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	192.97	1.86
Index Future	3.13	0.12
Stock Future	145.77	0.85
Index Options	12.79	0.24
Stock options	31.28	0.66
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

Fresh aggressive call writing was witnessed in the 4900, 5000, 5100 and 5200 strike thus indicating bearish tone. The OI of these strikes increased by 2 lakh shares, 11.7 lakh shares, 7.53 lakh shares and 3.73 lakh shares respectively. However there was some put writing as well on 4800 and 4900 strikes. In the January series there was call writing at 5000 and 5100 and 5400 strikes, while there was aggressive put buying in the 4800, 4900 and 5000 strikes. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (December series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4900	1656700
Nifty 5000	4525150
Nifty 5100	7719150
Nifty 5200	7200250
Put
Nifty 4800	4730500
Nifty 4900	4937300
Nifty 5000	4780150
Nifty 5100	2197850
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
ASIANPAINT	14800	4200	40
CROMPGREAV	489000	70000	17
DRREDDY	546000	60000	12
TITAN	89404	7416	9
MCDOWELL-N	901250	54250	6
LUPIN	418600	24500	6
RECLTD	2460900	142350	6
IDEA	31986900	1830600	6
BALRAMCHIN	18703200	1034400	6
BAJAJHIND	12749475	646950	5
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
GLAXO	36900	-54900	-60
GTL	2845500	-701250	-20
APIL	534000	-79200	-13
PANTALOONR	2868750	-386750	-12
CAIRN	10205000	-1265000	-11
INFOSYSTCH	2638800	-319000	-11
ROLTA	2500200	-300600	-11
BHEL	1572300	-177600	-10
OFSS	420600	-47100	-10
CONCOR	6750	-750	-10
* No of shares Source: NSE

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement.

Source : CapitalMarket

Bought to you by

Ingenious Investor

Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

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