IT Stocks - beneficiary of $ appreciation

Information technology (IT) stocks, which had underperformed the broader markets until mid-September, are now back in favour. Since 12 September, the CNX IT index of the National Stock Exchange has outperformed the benchmark Nifty by nearly 20%, more than making up for its underperformance earlier in the year.

Needless to say, this is because of the sharp depreciation of the rupee since August. It closed at 52.73 against the dollar on Tuesday, nearly 20% higher compared with levels of around 44 in early August.

According to an analyst with a foreign brokerage firm, every Rs. 1 increase in the rupee to dollar rate leads to an increase of around 3.5% in earnings for Infosys Ltd. The increase in earnings will be lower for firms such as Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, since they have hedged to a much higher extent. Even if one were to assume that the rupee to dollar rate in the medium term will average 50, this will lead to an over 20% increase in earnings estimates for Infosys compared with August.

Besides, the sharp rise in the rupee will provide a large margin buffer for IT companies, which will not only offset the pressure of wage inflation, but also companies’ leeway to spend more on sales and marketing to generate demand.

This is a welcome relief for companies in the sector as well as investors. In fact, a number of importer firms as well as companies with unhedged foreign currency borrowings are reeling under the pressure of a falling rupee. Given the widening trade deficit and the drop in portfolio and capital flows into the country, the fall in the rupee is expected to continue. In this backdrop, IT stocks may continue to outperform the broader markets.

Of course, the rise will be limited, given the weakening global macroeconomic situation. Infosys’ chief financial officer said on Monday that the company may miss the upper-end of its sales target for the December quarter and the fiscal year because of a deterioration in the global economic environment.

Even so, IT firms seem much better placed compared with firms catering to the domestic economy, which are grappling with high inflation, high interest rates as well as the impact of a declining rupee on their imports and borrowings.

Our Advise

Large Caps - Build your portfolio - hold long term

1. Infosys - Monthly High Rs.2875 and Low of Rs.2487 - Buy around 2500 on dips
2. HCL Tech - Monthly High Rs.380 and Low of Rs.450 - Buy around 400 on dips
3. Wipro - Monthly High Rs.387 and Low of Rs.327 - Buy around 350 on dips
4. TCS - Monthly High Rs.1040 and Low of Rs.1132 - Buy around 1060 on dips
5. Tech Mahindra - Monthly High Rs.640 and Low of Rs.543 - Buy around 550 on dips

Small Caps - Purely Trading bets - hold short term

1. Onmobile Monthly High Rs.640 and Low of Rs.543 - Buy around 550 on dips
2. Educomp Monthly High Rs.280 and Low of Rs.175 - Buy around 170 on dips
3. Mahindra Satyam Monthly High Rs.76 and Low of Rs.64 - Buy around 65 on dips
4. Mindtree Monthly High Rs.380 and Low of Rs.420 - Buy around 400 on dips
5. Patni Monthly High Rs.444 and Low of Rs.343 - Buy around 380 on dips

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Indian IT Sector

Shares of big IT companies fell sharply in trade after the US credit rating was downgraded by S&P on Friday. All the three top IT companies, TCS, Wipro and Infosys, witnessed a huge fall in their share prices on the BSE as these companies earn a major chunk of ther revenue from US and Europe.

"One should buy TCS or Infosys because I do not think business will be impacted so much in the short run, while the long tern story remains intact", says Raamdeo Agrawal, Director and Co-Founder, Motilal Oswal Financial Services in an interview with ET Now.

The US and Europe are the two biggest markets for Indian IT firms. TCS, Infosys and Wipro rely on the US and European markets for about 60 per cent of their revenue. Any slowdown there could straight away affect domestic IT companies having their presence globally.

While most IT companies have expressed caution in the past few months post their quarterly results in the wake of ongoing European debt crisis and high unemployment in the US. However they remain confident of being able to maintain their growth momentum

"On evaluation of IT companies and some of the frontline majors, their business prospects, business model and the possibility of getting new business remain robust and I find that fundamentally things have not changed as much", says Deven Choksey, MD, KR Choksey Securities in an interview with ET Now.

"The valuation of these companies have stayed around 20 plus price earning ratio which has started to come down more because the funds which invested into these particular companies are the trading funds or the index funds and they started pulling out money because of the want of money back home", said Deven.

"However, in comparison to other markets and stocks where the valuations has become far too attractive, shares in IT companies are still reasonably priced", says Deven. "Fundamentally things are not looking as negative as it is being feared about with the fall in the prices of IT companies", Deven further added.

Leading players like TCS and HCL Technologies have posted stellar growth numbers in the past few quarters on the back of steady demand for outsourcing services.

Our Recommendation :

Long term investors should buy TCS around 950 levels, Wipro @ 325, HCL Tech @ 400 levels. The July - Sept Quarter results should be good and hence one can hold for a 15% return in next 2-3 months

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Dont settle abroad - work in India - Narayana Murthy

BANGALORE: Youngsters looking to settle abroad, especially the US, courtesy IT industry should opt for career growth within India which offers larger growth opportunities than anywhere else in the world, Infosys mentor N R Narayana Murthy said on Tuesday.

"Somehow our youngsters have all assumed the idea of joining this industry is to go to US, get there, get an H1B, convert it into green card and settle down there. I think it is a wrong solution, a wrong strategy," he said while addressing a summit here.

Murthy said one expects youngsters to get good salaries and good disposal of income in India, for which they have to get good quality jobs here. "But their objective cannot be to go and settle down in some other country, especially the US."

"This time you have a great opportunity to consolidate and by working in India, by becoming a good quality professional you will sustain the advantage we have created and will make growth in India a permanent rather than a temporary feature."

On wooing back Indian talent, Murthy said there was no need to increase their salaries by 50 times to ensure this. But their lives could be made easier by providing schools, making sure that power condition and commuting is reasonably all right.

"This is being done by many countries in the world. This is nothing new. This is not rocket science," he said, adding there must also be attempts to ensure that the facilities are enhanced. "I think all state governments must make an attempt to say we will allow as many English medium schools as required because if you do not do so, then the children will not be able to move from one state to another."

Job opportunities available to children who go to English medium schools generally are seen to be of a higher quality and is a reality whether one likes it or not, he said. To get these section back, the combination of financial income coupled with comfort of living in India and with the family should be higher than the financial income and discomfort living abroad, he said.

When asked what his priorities would be if his name was proposed for the President's post, Murthy said: "In a parliamentary democracy like India, President is a ceremonial post. That is the reality."

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IT Sector - Outperform - Buy on dips

Mumbai: The September quarter results of India’s top four information technology (IT) outsourcing companies underscores the fact that demand for IT services is extremely strong. Cumulative revenues of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS), Infosys Technologies Ltd, Wipro Ltd’s IT services division and HCL Technologies Ltd rose by 10.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to Rs. 25,688.6 crore.

But in the current demand environment, achieving high growth isn’t particularly difficult. It’s more important to assess how well India’s top IT firms have managed this growth spurt—in terms of employee resources and margins, and cash flow management.

Ahmed Raza Khan/Mint

Growth would have been higher at close to 12%, but for the relatively low growth reported by Wipro on Friday. Wipro’s volume growth was decent at 6.6% and compares reasonably well with Infosys’ 7.2% volume growth. But pricing was lower in constant currency terms and while its peers gained from the depreciation in the rupee last quarter, Wipro took a hit on account of its large forex hedge position. As a result, revenue grew by just 4.5% in rupee terms. For about a year-and-a-half now, Wipro’s revenue growth has been in the bottom end of the growth range of the top IT companies. It’s not surprising that Wipro’s shares have fallen by over 8% since the beginning of the current results season, much more than the 2.5% fall in the National Stock Exchange’s CNX IT index. While Wipro was at the bottom of the pile in terms of revenue growth, TCS led with an impressive 13% revenue growth. The firm’s volume growth of 11.2% was also the highest in the sector, and far higher than HCL Tech’s 7.9% volume growth and Infosys’ growth of 7.2%.

Also Read | Girish Paranjpe | Good quarter, but we could have done better

From an industry perspective, the important thing is that all top companies have grown volumes at a healthy rate. As one analyst from a foreign brokerage points out: “The nature of demand is extremely healthy, and growth isn’t merely being driven by pent up demand in the system. Clients are handing out work related to compliance, risk management, consolidation of ERP (enterprise resource planning) systems and supply chain integration.” Wipro, which is fairly accurate with its quarterly guidance estimates, has said that it expects revenue to grow by 3.5-5.5% in the December quarter. Assuming its peers are able to continue growing at a faster pace, industry growth is likely to be high even in Q3.

How well have India’s top firms managed this growth phase? While each of the top four firms have grown volumes at a decent pace, their ability to manage employee resources, margins and cash flows have differed substantially. Analysts at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets point out in a note to clients, “Credit is due to TCS in manpower management, which has been the best in the industry. TCS has also faced industrywide headwinds of wage inflation. However, unlike Wipro, which cut manpower extremely aggressively in the slowdown, and Infosys, which reorganized its manpower through iRACE, TCS has been much more considerate to its employees. This is reflected in the much lower attrition, which has helped TCS service the demand upswing much better. This has also limited sub-contractor usage driving margin upsides.”

Attrition levels at Wipro and Infosys have been relatively high and the latter had to resort to high use of sub-contractors to meet the surge in demand last quarter. Besides, the latter has had to resort to out-of-turn promotions, while Wipro and HCL Tech have issued much higher number of options to employees below market price. The resultant increase in employee costs for these firms has impacted margins. As the chart shows, TCS and Infosys reported a strong growth in earnings before interest and tax, while earnings of Wipro and HCL Tech fell considerably. But note here that Infosys’ margins had fallen sharply in the June quarter and margins were expected to bounce back in the September quarter. Of the four firms, only TCS’ earnings have been meaningfully higher than Street expectations. TCS, however, benefitted from a one-off gain, thanks to which its rent costs fell by 46% q-o-q. But for this gain, margins would have been flat. Still, this doesn’t take away from the fact that the firm has managed its employee resources and margins relatively well.

Incidentally, TCS shares have risen by over 5% since the beginning of the results season last week, making it the only company among the top-tier firms to witness a rise in share price. Infosys and HCL Tech’s shares have fallen between 4% and 5%.

Despite the iRACE fiasco, Infosys’ performance on the margin front has been relatively good too. But Wipro and HCL have clearly disappointed as far as margins go, with the latter’s profit margins at their lowest levels in the last 12 years.

A similar difference is reflected in the cash flow generated by these firms. Here, Infosys leads the pack, with a free cash flow (FCF) of Rs.1,273 crore in the September quarter, which works out to an impressive 18% of its revenue. TCS isn’t far behind with an FCF/revenue ratio of around 15% last quarter. But Wipro’s FCF amounted to just 5.5% of revenue last quarter and HCL Tech reported a negative FCF. CLSA’s analysts note, “Such low margins and an inferior cash flow profile are a reflection of HCL’s strategy to trade growth for margins/earnings quality and recovering these will remain a challenge for HCL.”

In sum, growth in the current environment is almost a given for top IT firms. But not all Indian firms are managing this growth phase well.

mobis.p@livemint.com

Sridhar Chari in Bangalore and Surabhi Agarwal in New Delhi contributed to this story.

Source : Livemint.com

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IT sector - Overview of Performance

Dear All,

Is it the right time to enter the IT sector and make investments ?

At the outset the First Quarter 09-10 numbers are good enough it does not give a picture of getting of woods. The US economic woes continue to haunt Indian IT firms.

Infosys :

India's largest IT firm by sales Infosys shot up 2.75%. The government has launched a Government-to-Business (G2B) services e-biz project with Infosys as the technology partner. The project is among the 27 Central, State and Integrated Mission Mode Projects (MMPs) under the National E-Governance Plan (NEGP).

Wipro :

India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro advanced 0.99% after consolidated net profit as per Indian accounting rules rose 0.54% to Rs 1015.50 crore on 2.5% fall in sales to Rs 6289.10 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q4 March 2009. The company announced the results before trading hours on Wednesday, 22 July 2009.

TCS :

India's largest IT exporter by sales TCS gained 2.19% after net profit rose 15.27% to Rs 1276.44 crore on 0.12% fall in sales to Rs 5609.60 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q4 March 2009. The company announced the result after trading hours on 17 July 2009.

Tech Mahindra :

Tech Mahindra rose 1.95% even as net profit dropped 43% to Rs 131.6 crore on 6% rise in total revenues to Rs 1,113 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q4 March 2009. The company attributed fall in net profit to surge in interest costs on debt it took to buy Mahindra Satyam, the erstwhile Satyam Computer Services. The results were declared after market hours on Wednesday, 22 July 2009. Shares of Mahindra Satyam surged 15.09% to Rs 104.90

Buy on dips IT shares for long term for a 15-20% return

Raghav

Chief Investment Officer

Intelligent Investor -

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Bangalore -India

TA - Infosys 27-04-09

Infosys

The strong surge witnessed on this counter on Thursday made it close the week with 4 per cent gain.

Infosys has been repeatedly testing the resistance at Rs 1,450 over the last three weeks.

As explained in our last column, the stock has key resistance at Rs 1,450. Downward reversal from here will make it decline to Rs 1,000 whereas a rally beyond this level will give the stock next medium term target of Rs 1,587.

Fresh purchases from a trading perspective are therefore recommended only on a strong move above Rs 1,450. Subsequent short-term target is Rs 1,527.

Supports for the short term are at Rs 1,380 and Rs 1,350. Medium term trend will turn negative only on a close below Rs 1,300.

— Lokeshwarri SK

businessline 26-04-09

The IT pack has been broadly outperforming the markets and looks ripe for a correction  Infosys has been gaining ever since the results have been announced.  Expect a correction soon and one can enter the stock at Rs.1250-1275 levels for a target price of Rs.1600 for a holding period of 6 months.

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Technical Analysis - Infosys

Infosys

It was a volatile week for Infosys as the stock plunged to Rs 1300 following earnings announcement and then rebounded to close the week with less than 3 per cent loss. As we have explained earlier, there is a strong medium-term resistance between Rs 1400 and Rs 1450 since the 200-day moving average is poised here and it is also the upper boundary of our medium-term trading range. A reversal from here can pull Infosys lower towards Rs 1100 over the medium term.

The stock can continue to face resistance at Rs 1450 over the near-term. If it reverses lower from current levels, a decline to Rs 1300 and Rs 1256 would be on the cards. Target on a break above Rs 1450 is Rs 1492.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 19-04-09

Infosys - Avoid

Infosys

Infosys moved in a range between Rs 1,350 and Rs 1,450 last week.  The stock held above the 200-day moving average though it has not cleared the resistance around Rs 1,450 yet.

The short-term trend in the stock continues to be up and it can move higher to Rs 1,475 or Rs 1,527 in the near-term. Short-term traders can hold their long positions as long it trades above Rs 1,380.

Next support for the week is at Rs 1,340.  the stock is poised at a key medium-term resistance.  A reversal from here can pull it lower towards Rs 1,000 again. On the other hand, strong close above Rs 1,450 will give the next medium-term target at Rs 1,580.

Lokeshwarri S. K.

Businessline 12-04-09

Our View :

One can avoid the IT pack due to bleak outlook.  With results and guidance holding the key for next upmove, it is better to avoid the sector altogether.  Brave traders can sell on jump to Rs.1500 + during the week and close the positions intra-day.

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Technical Analysis - Infosys

Despite the wobble on Monday that made the stock decline to Rs 1,288, Infosys closed the week on a strong note with a 5 per cent weekly gain. Investors however need to tread carefully in the near-term since the stock is nearing the strong resistance zone around Rs 1,450 offered by the 200-day moving average and the November-2008 peak. Short-term traders can hold their long positions with a stop at Rs 1,340. Decline below will take the stock to Rs 1,288. The stock is currently pausing close to the upper boundary of our medium-term range that is at Rs 1,500. A strong break above this level will give the next target at Rs 1,580 and Rs 1,650 for Infosys. — Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline

Technical Analysis - Infosys

Infosys made a decisive move above the resistance at Rs 1,320 last Thursday and closed the week well above this mark.

As indicated last week, next medium-term target for the stock is Rs 1,457 which is the resistance offered by November 2008 peak.

The 200-day moving average present at Rs 1,430 is also a strong hurdle that the stock would have to grapple with in the near-term. Short-term traders can book partial profits as the stock nears the Rs 1,400 level and hold the rest with a stop at Rs 1,300.

The medium-term range for Infosys stays between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,500 and swing traders who have initiated longs close to the lower boundary should be alert as the stock nears the upper boundary of this range.

Lokeshwarri S. K.

IT shares slid on BSE / NSE on dashed budget hopes !

Shares of five information technology firms fell by 1.78% to 3.59% as some anticipated tax sops for the IT sector were not announced in the interim general budget.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, currently in charge of the finance ministry, presented the interim budget today, 16 February 2009.
At 14:04 IST, the BSE IT index was down 2.72% at 2,114.53. It, however, outperformed the Sensex, which was down 3.29% at 9,317.41.
TCS (down 1.78%), Infosys Technologies (down 2.69%), Wipro (down 2.88%), HCL Technologies (down 3.68%), and Hexaware Technologies (down 3.59%), slipped.
The information technology (IT) and information technology enabled services (ITeS) industry had anticipated the interim budget will extend the Software Technology Park of India (STPI) scheme beyond 2010. But there was no such announcement
Units situated in software technology parks falling under the scheme's umbrella are eligible for a 10-year income tax holiday, in addition to other benefits.
India's largely export-oriented software sector's fast pace of growth has been crimped by the economic slowdown in the US, which accounts for more than half of the sector's export revenues.
Earlier this month, the National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) slashed its software and services export target for the year ending March 2009 to about $47 billion, a growth of 16-17% and slower from an earlier target of 21-24%.