FnO Trends and Outlook for this week

Derivatives: Market will continue to remain cautious

F&O activity emits mixed signal with option indicating negative trend; global market activity will give cues and the market will continue to remain cautious.

The market movement remained flat during the week ended 11^th December 2009 with really mixed kind of signals from the futures & options (F&O) activity all through-out the week. On Friday the Nifty corrected by 17.35 after the announcement of weaker than expected Industrial production (IIP) data. The industrial production growth though robust at 10.3% fell below market expectations of a growth of 13% to 14% for the month. For the full week though the nifty index closed 8.4 points higher at 5117.30. The average volume in the F&O segment duringthe week under review stood at Rs 63619.86 crore. Although the nifty future remained at a premium to the underlying during the start of the week, on Friday however it closed at a discount of 5.70 points to the underlying at 5111.60. On Friday however the nifty closed lower and the nifty future shed 2.78 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.71 crore shares. For the full week under review the nifty future shed 38450 shares in OI. Some of the front-line stock futures like Reliance, ICICI Bank, DLF, SBIN, Sail and Bharti also shed OI during the week. However Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Unitech and Maruti increased OI during the week.

On Friday Reliance shed 7.4 lakh shares in OI to take its total OI to 1.05 crore shares. ICICI Bank, DLF, SBIN and Sail shed 5.08 lakh shares, 4.41 lakh shares, 0.75 lakh shares and 12.74 lakhshares in OI during the week under review. The OI of these decreased to 1.22 crore shares, 1.05 crore shares, 33.75 lakh shares and 90.69 lakh shares respectively.

In the nifty option front there were negative signals as fresh call were being written from 5000 to 5400 strike as puts written at 4900 and 5000 strikes earlier were covered on Friday. There were fresh put buying of 5100 and 5200 strikes.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
27-Nov-09	24665	19895	49581	1934	96075
30-Nov-09	17464	17199	30912	1973	67548
1-Dec-09	12606	17793	28166	2091	60657
2-Dec-09	11866	19831	22893	2126	56715
3-Dec-09	14559	18200	25938	1964	60660
4-Dec-09	17412	17490	34873	1756	71531
7-Dec-09	14002	14780	27395	1864	58041
8-Dec-09	17641	17741	31994	2052	69429
9-Dec-09	15259	16937	27174	1945	61314
10-Dec-09	14415	15059	26852	1658	57983
11-Dec-09	17440	16121	35873	1898	71332
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 183.21 crore shares, thus gaining only marginally as compared to the previous trading day, however OI increased by 14.05 crore shares as compared to the previous week. Increase in week-on-week OI was due to increased activity inStock futures and option segment whose OI increased by 6.16 crore shares and 6.26 crore shares respectively on a week-on-week basis. During Friday index futures and share futures shed OI as compared to the previous day. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 11th December 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	183.21	0.68
Index Future	3.10	-0.03
Stock Future	141.33	-0.89
Index Options	12.00	0.37
Stock options	26.79	1.22
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

OI of 5000 to 5400 call increased due to aggressive call writing at these levels. For e.g. 5100 and 5200 strike calls OI increased by 9.12 lakh share and 11.70 lakh shares respectively to take the total OI to 46.38 lakh shares and 65.93 lakh shares respectively. The 5300 strike call increased OI by nearly 4 lakh shares on Friday.

The 5100 and 5200 put witnessed addition of 3.97 lakh shares and 0.96 lakh shares respectively to take the total OI of these strikes to 38.63 lakh shares and 25 lakh shares respectively. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (December series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 5100	4637500
Nifty 5200	6592550
Nifty 5300	4761800
Put
Nifty 4900	5068750
Nifty 5000	5543000
Nifty 5100	3863450
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in December series stock futures on 11th December 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
RENUKA	13715000	2447500	15
APIL	658800	105600	14
IDEA	28139400	3604500	11
ORIENTBANK	1782000	224400	11
HCLTECH	2275000	241800	10
TATACOMM	1563450	149625	9
JINDALSTEL	7107840	661440	9
GVKPIL	34162000	2607750	7
RECLTD	2449200	173550	7
SAIL	9069300	565650	6
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in December series stock futures on 11th December 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
CROMPGREAV	400000	-87000	-28
CHAMBLFERT	8062650	-1697400	-27
PIRHEALTH	327000	-64500	-25
DABUR	977400	-164700	-20
DENABANK	11392500	-1601250	-16
BEL	127236	-17664	-16
VOLTAS	1854900	-251100	-16
HDIL	6390918	-797220	-14
ROLTA	3024000	-365400	-14
ONGC	1662525	-174600	-12
* No of shares Source: NSE

Thus the F&O activity emits a mixed signal although the option indications are negative. Going forward the global market activity will remain the cue. The market will continue to remain cautious.

Market Outlook 14-18 Dec 2009

Spooked by a lower than expected IIP number and concerns over rising food
inflation, markets shed intra-week gains to close on a flat note during the week
ended.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex gained marginally by 17 points to
close at 17,119 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) ended just
eight points higher at 5,117.
However, heightened trader interest was seen in the midcap and smallcap
segments. Lack of liquidity on account of advance tax payments for third quarter
and weak FII inflows were dampeners.

Indication from the RBI that there are no plans to curb foreign fund flows
failed to improve sentiment.

Post-Dubai crisis, global markets continue to be on the edge due to not too
encouraging news of the downgrading of sovereign ratings of countries like
Greece and Spain, raising fears of `false' recovery in many countries.

However, weekend news of extension of TARP till October 2010 and better than
expected reading consumer spending and sentiment propelled Dow Jones to 2009
high.
Following fresh triggers from news flow, markets may break out from the present
trading range in the next couple of weeks. Roller coaster ride on cards for the
short term players. For the week ahead, chartists indicate a trading range of
16,800-17,490 for the Sensex and 4,940-5,300 for the Nifty.

Immediate supports for the indices are at 16,960 and 16,800 and 5,040 and 4,980.
Failure to sustain the support level 5,000-5,050 may trigger sharp selloff for
near term.

Expect strong resistance to the indices at previous week's highs yet again.

Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the
market because you are anxious from waiting. When in doubt, get out, and don't
get in when in doubt.

FUTURES & OPTIONS
Lacklustre trading was seen in the derivatives segment during the week ended.
With many market players preferring to play safe, open interest rose sharply in
opt-ion segment. Profit booking was seen in both index and stock futures.
Barring capital goods, IT and power, nearly all the sectoral indices ended in
red.

Among the stock futures, accumulation of longs seen in ABB, APIL, Bharat Forge,
BHEL, Balrampur Chini, Triveni, Cummins, Indian Hotels, JSPL, Hotel Leela,
Lupin, Prajay Industries, MTNL, REC and SAIL. Hotel stocks are witnessing good
buying interest. Buy on declines Hotel Leela and Indian Hotels for further gains
from current levels.
From infra stocks, Reliance Infra and JP Associates may see burst of activity.
Buy at current levels.

With non-ferrous metals shining on LME, expect bump up in Hindalco and Nalco.
Weakness in dollar may give fillip to steel stocks. As expected, capital goods
counters led by BHEL rallied smartly. Further gains indicated in engineering
stocks. Profit booking in banking stocks likely to be short lived. Accumulate
smaller PSU banks like Vijaya, Andhra, Syndicate, Dena and others in the current
downtrend for strong gains in next month. Relief rally in telecom. Realty stocks
are facing resistance at higher levels.

Avoid fresh buying for now. After the recent correction, pharma stocks look good
for fresh uptrend. Buy Biocon, Orc-hid and Aurobindo for sharp gains. While
range bound activity is indicated in IT bluechips, midcap counters may continue
to witness buying interest. Sudden spurt is not ruled out in Pantaloon, Educomp,
MTNL, Triveni and Bharat Forge.

STOCK SCAN
Ambika Cotton Mills has expanded its captive power plant to overcome power
shortage and is setting up another 6 MW biomass power unit. It has posted good
results in Q1 and Q2. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 200.

Turnaround performance of RSWM Ltd in Q2 has triggered renewed buying interest
in the counter. Restructuring by demerger of some divisions helped RSWMto
improve its operating margins. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 150.

APW President is a leading designer, manufacturer and supplier of enclosure
systems for IT and telecom infrastructure. Buy at current levels for short term
gains.

After long consolidation, the stock price of Indrapra-stha Gas Ltd is on the
fast track due to expected gains from the recent expansion of the company's CNG
outlets in the NCR region. Stay invested for target price of Rs 225 in near
term.

Steady buying seen from FIIs in hospital stocks. Stay invested in Apollo
Hospitals for a target price of Rs 675 in next few weeks.
After stock split, volumes in Hindustan National Glass are on the rise. It is
expected give an EPS of Rs 24. Buy for target price of Rs 225 in medium term.

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Market Analysis 30 Nov 09

Rattled by Dubai’s debt crisis, stock markets slumped on fears that although the major central banks have stabilised the financial system, some of the ‘excesses’ simply refuse to disappear and may disrupt the system again. Erasing most gains of three-week rally, the benchmark indices fell by more than two per cent during the week ended. On the BSE, the Sensex fell by 390 points to end at 16,632 and the Nifty on the NSE shed 110 points to close at 4,942. However, the bounce back from intra-day lows on Friday reflects the bullish undertone and resilience of the markets. Fears over tax on capital inflows and withdrawal of stimulus packages have been allayed by the finance minister, but the impact of rising food inflation is a cause of concern. Dubai’s effort to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won’t be enough to protect markets. Differentiation between riskier and less risky asset classes in which correlatio-ns have risen, making it difficult to make money simply by riding the liquidity wave from central banks. Stock volatility will jump sharply as countries and companies default on loans. Markets still look bullish with the government giving big push to the reform agenda but the rise in risk aversion is likely and investors have to start focusing even more on the fundamentals. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 16,250 and 17,100 for the Sensex and 4,800 and 5,120 for the Nifty. Crucial supports for the indices are last week lows at 16,210 and 4,806. Traders fear that below the-se levels, indices might test lows of November series. Immediate resistances for the indices are at 16,880 and 17,100 and 4,980 and 5,060. Be bearish only below 4,850-level on closing basis. Whatever is hard to do in the market is generally the right thing; and whatever is easy is usually the wrong thing to do. Futures & Options Despite hyper volatility and wild swings of November series, the rollover of positions to the December series was in line with last three months average at 84 per cent. However, stock futures witnessed a lower rollover reflecting the lack of confidence among the market players over the near term direction of many individual stocks. Option activity indicates a strong support for Nifty at 4,800-4,850 level and strong resistance at 5,050-5,100 level. Adopt strangle strategy in index options by buying Nifty4,900 strike put and Nifty5,000 strike call options, to take advantage of directional change in the markets. Sectors that witnessed higher rollover are metal, banking, telecom, engineering, sugar and power. Stock futures looking good for further gains are Ranbaxy, BEL, Lupin, PFC, India Cement, BPCL, JP Hydro, Neyveli and GAIL. Among the momentum pack, Educomp, IFCI, Suzlon, Unitech and Hotel Leela may rally further from the current levels. Punters predict some speculative activity in the ADAG group. Buy Reliance Infra and Reliance Capital keeping last week lows as stop loss for sharp returns. Lower crude prices may trigger further buying in PSU refiners. Pharma stocks are attracting buying on every dip. Buy on declines Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Cipla, Aurobindo, Biocon and Lupin. Corrections in banking and auto stocks are likely to be short lived ones. Buy state owned banks as rise in interest rates to curb inflation is expected in next couple of quarters. Use sharp declines to accumulate stocks in auto and auto ancillary sectors. Stock scan Jain Irrigation Systems, a company synonymous for drip irrigation equipment, has over the years emerged as a diversified multi-product agri company. It is the largest manufacturer of polyethylene pipes and also the largest manufacturer of Tissue Culture Banana Plants in India. It has world class food processing facilities for dehydration of onions, vegetables and production of fruit purees, concentrates and pulp. IFC, a affiliate of World Bank has picked up stake in the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 1200 in the next few months. Volumes have improved remarkably in HBL Power after the stock has gone ex-split. The company is a pioneer in the design, development and manufacture of specialised batteries, DC systems and associated electronics. It supplies to aviation, defence, railways, telecom and other engineering industries. Buy HBL Power at current levels for price target of Rs 100 in medium term. Cravatex is one of the largest manufacturers of sports and casual wear for leading companies like FILA and Slazenger. The company represents several reputed international brands of fitness equipment in India and offers a range of advanced international beauty therapies catering the new quest for fitness, exercise, health and beauty. Buy this only ISO-certified and listed company in the sector for unexpected a price target of Rs 275 in the medium term. C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns. Source : deccan.com Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Market Khabar 16 Nov 09

Propelled by robust industrial numbers and positive global cues markets extended their gains during the week ended. On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex gained 690 points to end the week at 16,849 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) scored double century to close barely below 5,000-mark at 4,999.

The government's assurance that there will be no withdrawal of stimulus packages till the global economy stabilises, fast track clearance of disinvestment of some public sector units and a renewed buying from institutional investors kept the market sentiment positive.

Keep an eye on the four important Bills to be tabled in the Parliament in the Winter Session. A quick passage will indicate the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's resolve to implement reforms on the fast track. Barring any unforeseen negative cues from global front or any "ruckus" in Parliament over the UPA government's aggressive reform agenda, markets are expected to remain range bound with upward bias.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,540-17,360 for the Sensex and 4,800-5,260 for the Nifty.

Continuation of high intra-day volatility is likely; monitor positions cautiously. Be bearish only below 4,900 on closing basis. Cut longs if Nifty trades below 4,860 level. Market players expect Nifty to face a strong resistance at 5,100 level; 4,900-4,950 level to act as strong support. New short term highs for indices not
ruled out during the week ahead. The best part of the stock market is that "everything repeats". This is huge
plus, and a huge secret to making money with stocks.

SATTA GUPSHUP
* Recession-proof hospital stocks are back in the buying lists of savvy fund managers. Apollo Hospitals and Fortis Healthcare are good buys at current levels.

* Management's conversion of warrants in Apollo Hospitals clearly vindicates their confidence. Positive news on cards in next few weeks say insiders. Buy for target price of Rs850 in medium term.

* Fortis Healthcare is reportedly "snapping" up another hospital chain to strengthen its pan India footprint. Buy on declines for target price of Rs200.

* Select midcap and smallcap stocks like Camlin Fine Chemicals, Pace Textiles and Marg are attracting the attention of shrewd market players. Buy on declines the counters for steady returns in medium term.

* Results of Dish TV clearly indicate that a turnaround is on cards in next few quarters. Buy for target price of Rs 60 in next few months.

* Pace Textiles is a `purely' speculative bet doing rounds in the markets. Sharp spurt is indicated by sources close to the management. Buy only for speculative gains.

F & O
Expectedly, Nifty futures logged 200 points on short-covering coupled with a fresh buying interest. Overall, open interest is now just a shade above Rs 1,00,000-lakh-mark at Rs 1,11,000 crore. Nifty OI PCR has jumped to 1.56, indicaton of shorts getting piled up.

A strong short squeeze expected in near term. Buy OTM call option of 5,200-strike for unexpected returns tip punters.

Hedge portfolio longs by buying 4,900-strike put option. Among the stock futures that witnessed long build up are JSW Steel, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Voltas, Hindustan Constructions Company, IDBI Bank and Biocon.

Ahead JSW Energy IPO, sources indicate a price target of Rs 1,150 for JSW Steel. Pharma stocks are attracting a renewed buying interest from savvy market players. Rerating to trigger fresh buying in Biocon and Orchid, say market watchers. Banking and technology stocks are witnessing good buying interest at lower levels.
Midcap IT stocks FSL, Polaris, Mphasis and Patni may move fresh buying interest. Among the smaller PSU banks, positive bias indicated in Dena Bank, Indian Bank, Andhra Bank and Vijaya Bank. Reports of M&A activity in PSU banks are resurfacing again.

Among the side counters KFA, GSPL, Kotak, BEL and Century look good for further gains. Market cycles that used to take years to play out can now happen in months, sometimes even in a single day. Flexibility is the only sensible response to volatile markets and stocks with generous trading ranges.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

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Indian Stock Markets BSE Sensex & NSE Nifty Outlook for 16-20 Nov 09

Derivatives: Absence of global or domestic triggers may induce horizontal moves going ahead

Though F&O suggest bullishness, the absence of any global or domestic triggers can lead to some sideway moment during the forthcoming days, but retail investors remaining nervous

Following the global market the Indian market continued to spiral up during the week ended 13^th November 2009. The spiral-up during the previous week was mainly driven by the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) as well as the Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) who were net buyers through-out the week while the participation by retail investors were irrelevant as far as the rise is concerned. They remained net sellers during the week. It shows evident signs of nervousness prevalent in the retail investors mind. Going ahead the market will closely watch any signs of unwinding of US Dollar carry trade. Many are borrowing the dollar and investing in high yielding risky asset, which has been a major factor behind the rally in the Indian market as well. Any rise in interest rate in the US besides US$ strengthening will reverse the carry trade trend and would hit the market severely. The hardening inflation in the domestic market besides policy tightening going ahead will have a significant bearing on the domestic market. The market continued its growth momentum during the previous week with the Nifty rising by 200.30 points to close the week at 4996.45. The Nifty future closed at a premium of 6.20 points at 5002.65 on Friday. The average futures & options (F&O) volume during the week ended 13^th November 2009 was Rs 79228.39 crore.

In the F&O segment both the nifty future and some of the front-line stock future significantly added open interest (OI). For e.g. during the week the nifty added 7.92 lakh shares in OI and the total OI stood at 2.77 crore shares as on Friday. 9.71 lakh shares of OI were added during Friday.

Reliance added 55 thousand shares whereas Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 13.45 lakh shares and 24.81 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week ended 13^th November 2009. Other major front-line stock futures viz- Infosys, ICICI Bank, DLF and Maruti added OI during the week under review, whereas Unitech, Sail and Rcom shed OI.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
30-Oct-09	19335	20280	36957	1765	78337
3-Nov-09	18772	18585	42334	1883	81574
4-Nov-09	16337	18084	35787	2032	72239
5-Nov-09	24104	21408	48721	2265	96499
6-Nov-09	16576	19259	39632	1929	77395
9-Nov-09	15328	17800	38812	1863	73802
10-Nov-09	16991	21511	40210	2296	81008
11-Nov-09	17546	20564	46544	2310	86964
12-Nov-09	18831	19816	41012	2431	82090
13-Nov-09	15878	16889	37663	1849	72278
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 173.67 crore shares, thus gaining by 2.04 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. Index future added just 11 lakh shares in OI whereas the major addition was witnessed by the stock futures. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 13th November 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	173.67	2.04
Index Future	3.23	0.11
Stock Future	131.59	0.54
Index Options	11.96	0.25
Stock options	26.89	1.14
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

In the nifty option segment in-the-money strike nifty call witnessed unwinding of OI whereas at-the-money and out-of-the money nifty strikes witnessed addition of OI signifying fresh call buying at these strikes. However both out-of-the money and in-the-money nifty puts witnessed aggressive put writing signifying strong bullishness as far as the option indicators are concerned.

For the full week under review the nifty 5000 and 5100 strike call added 4.58 lakh shares and 14.34 lakh shares in OI and the total OI of both these strikes as on Friday stood at 38.72 lakh shares and 33.22 lakh shares respectively. The 4800 and 4900 strike puts added 32.25 lakh shares and 43.19 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week under review. Further the 5000 and 5100 strike puts added 32.96 lakh shares and 7.26 lakh shares in OI. Such aggressive put writing of these strikes indicates bullishness as the market expects the nifty underlying to easily cross these strike levels. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (November series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4700	2278650
Nifty 4900	3045900
Nifty 5000	3872050
Nifty 5300	1869600
Put
Nifty 4800	6239200
Nifty 4900	5614200
Nifty 5000	4621700
Nifty 5100	1075350
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
TECHM	948600	213600	18
SUNTV	339000	76000	18
JSWSTEEL	3567508	763024	18
PATELENG	726000	127000	15
BOSCHLTD	3000	500	14
PATNI	1004900	133900	12
NAGARCONST	2090000	260000	11
IVRCLINFRA	2666000	286000	10
TCS	4911000	516000	10
SINTEX	547400	56000	9
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
BANKINDIA	1924700	-265050	-16
BRFL	5027800	-525550	-12
PTC	5205250	-538150	-12
APIL	680400	-70200	-12
ROLTA	3357000	-340200	-11
FSL	25156000	-2432000	-11
LITL	2139214	-160776	-8
UNIONBANK	1523550	-114450	-8
AXISBANK	2807100	-180000	-7
POLARIS	3679200	-226800	-7
* No of shares Source: NSE

Although the market remained at high and the F&O indication are also suggesting bullishness, a lot will depend on the activity in the foreign market in the absence of any major domestic triggers. The market may continue its growth momentum citing global market. Also in the absence of any global or domestic triggers some sideway moment is expected during the proceeding days. The nervousness among retail investors still persists as evident from their lack of participation in the recent rally.

Source:Capital Market

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Indian Stock Markets Review and 9-13 Nov Outlook BSE and NSE

e bulls managed to sustain last week’s momentum, with the BSE Sensex adding 4.3% to close at 16,848 and the NSE Nifty rising 4.2% to 4,998. Better-than expected IIP numbers helped the market in maintaining the bullish tempo. However, the Nifty continued to witness resistance at 5,000 levels through the week.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 16,910 and low of 16,147 while, NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,017 and low of 4,790.

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs30.15bn during the week. The Domestic Institutions were net buyers to the tune of Rs4.90bn during the week.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Tata Motors (up 8.8%), Reliance Industries (up 8.3%), TCS (up 7.7%), ICICI Bank (up 7.1%) and Infosys (up 6.4%).

The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Bharti Airtel (down 5.6%), DLF (down 3.1%), Hindustan Unilever (down 1%), Ranbaxy Labs (down 0.5%) and Reliance Power (down 0.2%).

The BSE IT Index (up 6.5): The top gainer in the IT sector was HCL Tech. The stock rose over 10% during the week. The company is reportedly looking for small acquisition over the next year to close gap in service offerings in certain areas like healthcare and lifesciences.

TCS rose over 7.7% during the week. The company said it plans to expand its strategic business alliance with US-based Dow Chemicals.

Infosys was up by over 6% during the week after the company announced that its BPO arm had acquired the US-based back-office firm McCamish Systems for around US$38mn.

Mahindra Satyam surged over 6% during the week. Nearly 27.25mn shares or 2.3% of the company’s equity were offloaded by L&T in a single block trade on the BSE on Friday. The transaction was seen at an average process of Rs112.45, raising almost Rs3.03bn for L&T.

Wipro surged over 6% during the week. According to a report released by IIFL during the week, “While margins are likely peaking at other IT services vendors, we believe Wipro’s IT services margins will continue to expand. Further, margin expansion in the combined entity could be greater, as its badly affected infrastructure unit (WIN) turns EBITDA-positive. YoY, Wipro has improved EBITDA margins in its IT services division by 350bps against 150-250bps of competitors. This is despite its higher hedges putting it at a marginal disadvantage during a period of rapid depreciation of the rupee (11% vs US$). Apart from tighter hiring (1.3% decrease in headcount vs Infosys’s and TCS’s 5% to 7% increase YoY in 2QFY10), the shift in pricing models (~9ppt increase in contribution from fixed-price projects YoY) has released new delivery levers. Guidance for 3QFY10 is strong (4.5% QoQ at top end) and we expect Wipro’s outperformance vs Infosys to continue (Wipro had better QoQ US$ revenue growth than Infosys in six out of the last nine quarters). We reiterate Wipro as our top pick in IT services and recommend a switch from Infosys to Wipro”.

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the consumer durables space were Su-Raj Diamonds (up 4.2%), Whirlpool (up 4%), Videocon Industries (up 1.8%), Blue Star (up 1.7%) and Mirc Electronics (up 0.9%).

Samtel Color lost over 5% during the week.

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 2.2%): The top gainers in the Pharma sector were Morepen Labs (up 34%), Panacea Biotec (up 12.5%), Strides Arcolab (up 9.9%), Orchid Chem (up 7.2%) and GlaxoSmithKline (up 4.9%).

The top losers were Aurobindo Pharma (down 6.1%), Cadila Healthcare (down 5.2%), Glenmark Pharma (down 2.4%), Dishman Pharma (down 2.3%) and Zandu Pharma (down 1.3%).

Lupin ended almost flat during the week. A report released by IIFL stated that, “Key takeaways from investor meetings that we recently hosted for Lupin’s management add to our confidence that the company will continue its strong performance. The company believes that active promotion of the newly acquired Antara can push its sales significantly above the historical run rate of US$70m per year. Its entry into ophthalmology and oral contraceptives in the US will significantly contribute to overall growth rate. USFDA issues surrounding the Mandideep facility will be resolved sooner rather than later, and the weak margins of 2QFY10 were an aberration. We are raising our FY10 and FY11 core earnings estimate by 3-4%. We also raise our price target to Rs1,610 from Rs1402 and maintain our BUY rating”.

The BSE Banking Index (up 5.3%): The top gainers in the banking space were ICICI Bank (up 7.1%), IOB (up 6.5%), Axis Bank (up 6.2%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 6.2%) and Canara Bank (up 5.5%).

The top losers were Karnataka Bank (down 1.1%) and Andhra Bank (down 0.1%).

According to a report released by IIFL during the week, “Bank loan growth has been on a declining trend since peaking in October 2008 and grew at just 9.7% YoY for the fortnight ended 23 October 2009. The lower loan growth can be attributed to lack of demand from individuals and corporates alike. Alternate sources like QIPs and commercial paper have partly offset the fund flow to corporate sector. Banks have been parking their excess liquidity with mutual funds, which in turn have been subscribing to corporate CPs. While we expect some pick-up in loan growth in 2HFY10, full year growth is likely to be below 15%, well below RBI’s targeted 18%. But most private and front-line government banks are expected to grow their loan book at well above the system growth rate. Axis, Yes, PNB, BOB and SBI remain our preferred picks”.

The BSE Auto Index (up 4%): The top gainers in the auto sector were Hindustan Motors (up 27.9%), Tata Motors (up 8.8%), Eicher Motors (up 6.4%) and M&M (up 5.9%).

Hero Honda was up 3.2% during the week. According to reports, Honda said it is committed to its joint venture with the Hero Group, putting to rest speculations of a rift between the partners.

Maruti was marginally up by 0.5% during the week. According to a report released by IIFL during the week stated, “Reports of foreign automakers planning to set up plants in India have been a big overhang for Maruti stock for some time now. For a case study, we looked at the impact new entrants had on incumbents when a similar situation played out in Brazil ten years ago. In the last ten years, since the likes of Renault, Peugeot, Toyota and Honda set up shop in Brazil, they have been able to take only 10% market share from the top four auto makers (Fiat, Volkswagen, GM and Ford), who even now constitute 80% of the market. This corroborates our view that concerns over market share loss for Maruti are overdone. While we agree that increasing competition from the likes of Honda and Toyota will mean some market share loss for Maruti over the next few years, we think the decline will be far slower than what the market seems to be pricing in currently”.

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 5.3%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Hindustan Oil (up 12.4%), Gujarat NRE Coke (up 7.1%) and MRPL (up 4.3%).

Reliance Industries surged 8% and ONGC added 2.2% during the week after media reports stated that the Oil Minister has proposed a 31% hike in regulated gas prices.

GSPL rose by over 4% during the week after the company announced that it plans to lay, build and operate a natural gas pipeline from Gujarat to Orissa.

The top losers were IOC (down 5.9%), Jindal Drilling (down 1.2%) and Great Offshore (down 0.3%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 3.4%): The top gainers in the capital goods space were LMW (up 7.4%), Greaves Cotton (up 7.2%), Siemens (up 6.7%), Praj Industries (up 5.9%) and HEG (up 5.2%).

The top losers were Dredging Corp (down 4%), Alfa Laval (down 1.8%), BEML (down 0.9%) and BEL (down 0.3%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Gujarat Sidhee (up 18.4%), Grasim (up 5.6%), Kakatiya Cement (up 3.7%), Shree Cement (up 3.2%) and ACC (up 2.9%).

The top losers were JK Cements (down 7.3%), Birla Corp (down 1.5%) and Ultratech Cement (down 0.8%).

According to a report released by IIFL during the week stated, “Cement exports from India declined 40% YoY in the September 2009 quarter, as the key Middle East region turned from supply shortage to excess supply. Withdrawal of Saudi Arabia’s ban on cement export from second week of October further depressed the already-declining cement prices in the Middle East. For exports from India, FOB prices are currently at ~US$40 per tonne—down from US$60 per tonne two quarters ago. With diversion of supplies meant for exports, cement prices in Gujarat have declined sharply in the past month. We expect the decline in export volumes to continue, as supply in the Middle East region is likely to increase sharply”.

The Telecom Sector: The top gainer in the telecom space was WWIL. The stock shot up over 30% during the week after Union Cabinet approved the proposal of the Information & Broadcasting Ministry to issue policy guidelines for Headend-in-the-Sky (HITS) operators. The policy guidelines provides for a framework within which the HITS service providers has to provide services in the country.

Among the other major gainers were Gemini Comm (up 12.8%), Shyam Telecom (up 12%), MTNL (up 7.3%) and Himachal Futuristic (up 1.9%).

The top losers were Bharti Airtel (down 5.6%), RCom (down 2.6%) and Idea Cellular (down 0.2%).

A report released by IIFL during the week stated, “Industry’s QFY10 financial report released by TRAI shows a 0.4% QoQ drop in aggregate gross revenues (GR). The decline was led by B-circles (32% of total gross revenues), in which GR declined by 3.3% QoQ, while metro and C circles grew 2.5% and 2.8% respectively (A circles were flat). In the nine circles where Tata DoCoMo (TD) launched the per-second billing tariff plans, their revenues were up (12% QoQ), RCOM grew 3% QoQ (with this and the decline in the mobile revenues in 2Q reporting to exchanges, the hitherto inexplicable gap is decreasing), while revenues of Bharti, Vodafone and Idea dropped by 2% each. Expect more revenue declines when TD goes national”.

The Realty Sector (down 2.3%): The Realty index was the only loser among the sectoral indices. The top losers in the real estate space were Unitech (down 3.8%), DLF (down 3.1%) and HDIL (down 0.6%).

The top gainers were Sobha Developers (up 10.5%), Akruti City (up 8.8%), Parsvnath (up 4.2%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 3.4%) and Omaxe (up 1.1%).

The Metals sector (up 7.1%): The top gainers in the metal space were JSW Steel (up 17.7%), Bhushan Steel (up 6.4%), Jindal Steel (up 6.1%) and Tata Metaliks (up 4.9%).

SAIL rose over 10% during the week. The Finance Ministry is in talks with the Steel Ministry to sell stake in SAIL.

Source: Indiainfoline

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Market up-move continues to look uncertain

Though the activity in the global market will dictate, the fresh bearish position builds up in the nifty as well as the stock futures and options indicate market do not have the strength required to continue to maintain its growth momentum

The week started on an extremely negative note as the nifty corrected by 147.80 points to close at 4563.90 points. The sell-off was triggered by the news that the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has set up a team to examine the expenses Reliance Industries (RIL) incurred on its D6 natural gas field in the Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin in the Bay of Bengal. The correction was further exasperated by the bleak scenario in the European markets and US index futures. During this day huge short positions were created in the stock and Nifty November series. However positive comments by the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, that there are no immediate plans to place curbs on capital inflows, besides strong global stocks indices enabled the domestic benchmark to come back strongly. The Nifty rose 146.90 points to close at 4710.80. The shorts that were created the previous day were aggressively un-wound. For e.g. Nifty November series it self witnessed unwinding of 23.47 lakh shares of short position open interest (OI) created the previous day. The trend was the same in the front-line stock futures as well. Then for the proceeding three days the market closed on a positive note. For the full week ended 6^thNovember 2009 the nifty index rose 84.45 points to close at 4796.15. However the Nifty future closed at a discount of 6 points to the underlying. The global market weakness and the worry of unwinding of US $ carry trade and the consequent asset bubble burst and US$ appreciation continue to remain. Despite the rally the market does not signify convincing strength, as is evident from the future market activity during the past few days.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
30-Oct-09	19335	20280	36957	1765	78337
3-Nov-09	18772	18585	42334	1883	81574
4-Nov-09	16337	18084	35787	2032	72239
5-Nov-09	24104	21408	48721	2265	96499
6-Nov-09	16576	19259	39632	1929	77395
Source: NSE

On Friday 6^th November the Nifty closed 30.60 points higher at 4796.15. The OI trend in the Nifty and the stock futures remained directionless. As the week closed the nifty continued to shed OI signifying short covering. Besides the trend in the stock futures were also the same. The total OI for the Nifty November series further shed 8.65 lakh shares to 2.76 crore shares. Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 158.62 crore shares, thus gaining by just 7 lakh shares as compared to the previous trading day. As mentioned earlier the index future and the overall stock future witnessed un-winding of OI signifying continued short covering. For e.g. the index future shed 6 lakh shares in OI compared to the previous day whereas the stock futures shed 1.77 crore shares in OI. The stock option contributed the major addition in OI. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 6th November 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	158.62	0.07
Index Future	3.05	-0.06
Stock Future	125.44	-1.77
Index Options	10.15	0.31
Stock options	19.97	1.59
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

In the Nifty option front the most active call options were the 4600 to 4900 strike calls and 4500 to 4700 strike puts. The 4600 and 4700 strike calls unwound 1.98 lakh shares and 2.89 lakh shares in OI signifying covering of calls bought earlier whereas 4800 and 4900 call strikes witnessed 6.1 lakh shares and 5.1 lakh shares addition of OI. The concurrent premium decline of these strikes indicates call wrote at these levels. Besides 4400 strikes put witnessed unwinding of 6.2 lakh shares in OI, whereas 4500, 4600 and 4700 strike puts witnessed addition of 2.1 lakh shares, 9.7 lakh shares and 8.5 lakh shares addition in OI respectively. The concurrent premium increase indicates puts bought at these strikes. Thus these indicate bearish signal. The OI in the 4800 and 4900 strikes call increased to 40.02 lakh shares and 41.27 lakh shares respectively. The OI in the 4600 and 4700 strikes puts increased to 58.90 lakh shares and 46.46 lakh shares respectively. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (November series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4600	1459900
Nifty 4700	3126350
Nifty 4800	4002200
Nifty 4900	4126700
Put
Nifty 4500	4597950
Nifty 4600	5889500
Nifty 4700	4646100
Nifty 4800	3014100
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in November series stock futures on 6th November 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
TATACHEM	1097550	333450	23
ASHOKLEY	10590950	3189700	23
POLARIS	2587200	655200	20
INDIANB	2083400	503800	19
TATAPOWER	1910800	415600	18
VOLTAS	2173500	413100	16
MPHASIS	2137600	368000	15
BAJAJHIND	14469450	2103300	13
INDHOTEL	4876632	706428	13
PANTALOONR	1782450	249050	12
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in November series stock futures on 6th November 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
HCLTECH	1158300	-258700	-29
CROMPGREAV	409000	-87000	-27
SINTEX	347200	-57400	-20
SUZLON	60420000	-9549000	-19
BANKINDIA	1980750	-288800	-17
BHUSANSTL	424000	-58500	-16
NAGARCONST	1334000	-172000	-15
ASIANPAINT	14200	-1800	-15
ONGC	1253475	-144900	-13
IDFC	9761550	-1103300	-13
* No of shares Source: NSE

The market do not seem to have the strength required to continue to maintain its growth momentum as fresh bearish position builds up in the nifty as well as the stock futures and options. Going ahead the activity in the global market will be the key as the mood there is also gloomy.

Source : capitalmarket

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BSE & NSE Stock Market Review 28 Oct 09

The key benchmark indices drifted lower in choppy trade after US consumer confidence data dampened investor appetite for riskier assets like equities and high-yielding and growth-related currencies. Most global stocks were in red. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 69.91 points or 0.43%, off close to 125 points from the day's high and up close to 140 points from the day's low. The market extended losses for the third day in a row. From a recent high of 16810.81 on 23 October 2009, the Sensex has lost 527.32 points or 3.13% in three trading sessions

The market breadth was weak. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) jumped. Realty stocks also rose. But, metal and auto stocks fell.

Bank stocks fell for the second straight day as the RBI did not relax mark-to-market rules for bank's debt holdings at a quarterly policy review on Tuesday. The market was been agog with talks over the past few days of the central bank hiking the ceiling on the portion of government securities that banks can park in held-to-maturity (HTM).

Another trigger for the sharp slide in banking stocks was the central banks' decision to streamline provisioning requirement on non-performing assets. The RBI asked banks to ensure by September 2010 that the total provisioning coverage against non-performing or bad loans aren't less than 70% of the outstanding amount.

Intraday volatility was high as traders rolled positions in the derivatives segment from October 2009 series to November 2009 series ahead of the expiry October 2009 contracts on Thursday, 29 October 2009.

To read the full report please click here www.capitalmarket.com