Hathway Cables - Buy on dips

Technical Pick

We recommend a buy in the stock of Hathway Cable & Datacom from a short-term perspective. It is seen from the charts of the stock that following an intermediate-term downtrend from September 2010 peak of Rs 237, it found support in the range between Rs 92 and Rs 96 in March this year. However, the stock changed its direction triggered by positive divergence in daily moving average convergence divergence and started to trend higher later on.

After more than a month's narrow range bound movement between Rs 106 and Rs 117, the stock broke out this range by jumping seven per cent with above average volumes on Wednesday. Moreover, this up move has breached its 21- and 50-day moving averages emphatically. The daily relative strength index has entered into the bullish zone from the neutral region and weekly RSI is rising higher in the neutral region. Daily MACD has signalled a buy and is on the verge of entering into the positive territory.

The stock has given the following returns in the last 1 year and is likely to be slow mover going forward.

Time Span	Price	Change	%Change
Today	83.15	3.95	4.98
Week	93.50	-14.30	-15.29
Month	114.55	-35.35	-30.85
Three Months	107.80	-28.60	-26.53
Six Months	125.95	-46.75	-37.11
One Year	216.40	-137.20	-63.40

Considering the stock's recent breakthrough, we are bullish on it from a short-term perspective. We expect the stock's upward momentum to continue and reach our price target of Rs 124.5 or Rs 128 in the upcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock around 70 levels with stop-loss at Rs 60/-

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OnMobile Global - Buy on dips

IIFL is bullish on OnMobile Global and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 136 in its June 7, 2011 research report.

“OnMobile Global has deployed its infrastructure to supports 3G products like video on demand & IVVR on several operator networks. However, the initial 3G revenues consists of charges for mobile broadband and operators are yet to cover pan-India, which implies product usage (& hence revenues) would take some time to fructify for OnMobile. Moreover, telcos have diverted a sizable chunk of ad spends towards creating awareness on 3G services which has had an impact on VAS promotional activity. Company has indicated such a phenomenon has a temporary dampening effect on revenues, but is unlikely to lead to any long-term structural shift away from VAS.”

“OnMobile is now live in 6 Latin American countries, as part of its Telefonica deployment and covers 80-85% of population. It has achieved ~1.5% penetration rate in large markets like Brazil, Mexico & Argentina; encouragingly, Lat-Am RBT ARPUs are ~2-3x that for India. International revenues have also risen from 25% to 32% in the past 4 quarters, which helps diversify what is hitherto an India-centric business. Q4 FY11 domestic revenue fell 12% qoq due to a change in the contractual scope whereby content management was removed from its responsibilities at a major telco, leading to a ~10% qoq contraction in topline; Ex-such change, sequential revenue is flat-company attributed this to a seasonally lean period for capex orders at its European units and newly acquired Dilithium (video products) business as well as weakness in European economy. We believe Q4 results do not form part of broader trend and expect growth momentum to resume as international revs ramp up led by Telefonica deployments.”

“OnMobile is set to report increased traction in revenues driven by leadership in domestic business and upsides from Telefonica and Vodafone deals. It has guided for Rs600-800mn in capex in the current fiscal, comfortably supported by ~Rs1.9bn in operating CF in FY12. Stock trades at 9.8x FY13 PER which provides an attractive entry point, in our view; maintain Buy for a target price of Rs 136,” says IIFL research report.

Our Recommendation :

The stock gave negative results in the last 1 year (Co gave a bonus of 1:1 ratio)

Time Span Price Change %Change

Today 74.25 -13.15 -15.04

Week 91.80 -4.40 -4.79

Month 109.15 -21.75 -19.92

Three Months 112.20 -24.80 -22.10

Six Months 112.10 -24.70 -22.03

One Year 143.93 -56.53 -39.27

The performance for the quarter is below market expectations and has seen huge sell off resulting the stock hitting 52 week low of Rs.72. Investors can look to buy the stcok in case of further correction to Rs. 50 levels as the outlook for the services of the company remain robust.

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BSE / NSE Sectoral Analysis 1st July 2011

Banking, metal shares lead rally

Aggressive buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and easing of Greece's debt worries triggered a strong rally on the domestic bourses, with the key benchmark indices surging to their highest level in more than 8 weeks. The market rose in four out of five trading sessions during the week ended Friday, 1 July 2011. Concerns of a disorderly debt default from Greece eased after the government's austerity program was passed in the parliament on Thursday, 30 June 2011.

The Sensex jumped 522.12 points or 2.86% to 18,762.80 in the week ended 1 July 2011. The BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 229.97 points or 3.45% to 6,901.67. The BSE Small-Cap index surged 302.03 points or 3.81% to 8,224.41. Both the BSE Small-Cap and Mid-Cap indices outperformed the Sensex.

Trading for the week began on an upbeat note as the key benchmark indices surged for third straight day on Monday, 27 June 2011, as a slide in global crude oil prices outweighed concerns that an increase in domestic fuel prices will stoke inflation. The BSE Sensex rose 171.73 points or 0.94% to settle at 18,412.41, its highest closing since 7 June 2011.

Key benchmark indices advanced for the fourth straight day on Tuesday, 28 June 2011, as the latest data showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) had stepped up buying of Indian stocks. The BSE Sensex rose 80.04 points or 0.43% to settle at 18,492.45, its highest closing level since 7 June 2011.

The market extended its winning streak to the fifth straight day on Wednesday, 29 June 2011, as world stocks rose, buoyed by hopes that the Greek parliament will vote in favor of additional austerity measures. The BSE Sensex jumped 201.41 points or 1.09% to 18,693.86, its highest closing level since 2 May 2011.

Key benchmark indices extended their winning streak into the sixth straight day on Thursday, 30 June 2011, attaining their highest closing level in more than 8-weeks, as data showing sustained buying by foreign funds over the past few sessions, firm global stocks and easing of food inflation in mid-June 2011 boosted sentiments. The BSE Sensex surged 152.01 points or 0.81% to settle at 18,845.87, its highest closing level since 2 May 2011

The market snapped 6-day winning steak on Friday, 1 July 2011, as investors booked profits after the Sensex jumped more than 7% the preceding six trading sessions. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and Bharti Airtel, led the decline. The BSE Sensex shed 83.07 points or 0.44% to 18,762.80.

Metal stocks rose as metal prices recovered on the London Metal Exchange after an earlier steep fall. Hindalco Industries jumped 7.8% to Rs 186.40 during the week. Sterlite Industries jumped 6.08% to Rs 170.10.

Tata Steel jumped 4.03% to Rs 602 after the company's managing director Hemant Nerurkar on Tuesday, 28 June 2011, said operating profit at the company's European unit will rise by two-thirds of its current level to $100 a metric tonne over the next three years. Tata Steel Europe generates earnings of $60 per tonne before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization at present. Nerurkar said higher operating margin at the European unit will be driven by increase in value-added products and control over costs.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro gained nearly 4% to Rs 1,807.75 on a recent strong flow of new orders for the firm.

Bank stocks rose as the latest data showed that credit offtake remains strong. Credit offtake from banks grew by 20.9% to over Rs 41 lakh crore during the one-year period ended 17 June 2011. According to the RBI data, credit offtake during the period stood at Rs 41.23 lakh crore against Rs 34.10 lakh crore in the same period of the previous year.

India's biggest commercial bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India vaulted 5.8% to Rs 2,421.10. HDFC Bank jumped nearly 5% to Rs 2,496.90 on expectations of strong Q1 June 2011 earnings. ICICI Bank rose 2.7% to Rs 1,094.70 after the private sector bank's chief financial officer N.S. Kannan, said in a media interview that the bank aims to grow its loan book by 18%-20% in the current financial year.

Auto stocks rose as the hike in diesel price of Rs 3 per litre announced by the government after trading hours on Friday, 24 June 2011, was lower than market expectations of a hike of Rs 4 per litre. Tata Motors gained 3.09% to Rs 994.50 and M&M rose 2.8% to Rs 691.30.

NTPC rose 2.1% to Rs 186 after the company said a unit of 660 megawatt (MW) of Sipat Super thermal power project was commissioned on 28 June 2011. With this, the total capacity of NTPC group has become 34,854 MW. This is the first super-critical 660 MW unit of NTPC which has been added to the capacity. With the coming of this unit, the total installed capacity of Sipat super thermal power project has become 1,660 MW.

FMCG stocks rose on expectations that a strong monsoon will boost demand from rural areas and also reduce input prices. FMCG giant Hindustan Unilever rose nearly 4% to Rs 336.75 and cigarette major ITC gained 3.4% to Rs 201.70.

IT pivotals gained on expectations of good Q1 June 2011 results. TCS rose 4.4% to Rs 1,186.35 and Infosys gained 2.5% to Rs 2,934.30. The National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) recently reiterated its forecast of a 16%-18% growth in export revenue for IT outsourcing services in this fiscal year that began on 1 April 2011.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to allow companies to issue equity and preference shares under the government's foreign direct investment scheme to fund certain transactions. The clearance is for imports of capital goods and other machineries and equipment, the central bank said in a release. All such conversions of import payables into foreign direct investment should be completed within 180 days from the date of the shipment of goods.

The wholesale price index for primary articles fell 0.4% to 197.4 in the week ended 18 June 2011 from a provisional 198.1 in the previous week, according to the latest data issued by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. On a year-on-year basis, prices of primary articles were up 11.84%, slower than the 12.62% rise recorded in the week ended 11 June 2011, the data showed. In the week to 18 June 2011, the food articles index decreased 0.8% to 189.8 from 191.3 in the previous week. The year-on-year inflation for food articles decelerated sharply to 7.78% from 9.13%. The fuel products index rose 0.2% to 160.2 in week ended 18 June 2011 from 159.9 in the previous week.

Going ahead, the inflation may remain high due to the recent hike in diesel, kerosene and LPG prices. The Indian government on 24 June 2011 announced a hike in the price of diesel by Rs 3 a litre, kerosene Rs 2 a litre and cooking gas by a steep Rs 50 a cylinder.

Our Recommendation :

Hot Sectors - Metal, Banking, FMCG and Pharma

Weak Sectors - PSU, Oil & Gas, IT

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NSE Review 7th Jan 2011

Nifty (5,904.6)

Nifty recorded the peak at 6181 on Monday before ending the week 230 points lower. The short-term trend in the index is down and it will face resistance at 5998 and 6068 in the days ahead. Traders can initiate fresh shorts if the index fails to rally beyond the first resistance. Downward targets would be 5801 and 5721 for the short-term.

The medium-term downtrend from the 6335 peak appears to be continuing in the Nifty and this leg of the down move has the targets of 5801, 5567 and 5332 over the medium term. It however needs to be borne in mind that the index receives strong support in the zone between 5700 and 5800 from where a rebound is possible.

A strong close above 6068 will negate the bearish medium-term view and take the Nifty to 6167 or 6343 in the upcoming sessions.

Global Cues

Global markets have ended the first week of 2011 on a mildly positive note. There were no runaway rallies in any market but most benchmarks managed to close in the green. CBOE Volatility Index closed a tad lower at 17.4 indicating a status quo as far as investor sentiment is concerned. As we have written earlier, a strong close below 15 in this index will imply that global stocks are in a raging bull market.

But the VIX reversed higher from this level in the last week of December.

The Dow closed on a very strong note, up 119 points last week. Medium-term targets for this index remain at 11,867, 12,000 or 12,444. Close below 11,450 is required to make the near-term outlook negative for Dow.

Many of the Asian benchmarks such as Hang Seng, Karachi 100, Malaysia's KLSE Composite, Nikkei, Seoul Composite, Straits Times Index and so on put up a strong performance last week.

Mid Caps - 2010 Review

Vidya Bala

BL Research Bureau

Mid-cap stocks could not prove their mettle against their large-cap peers in 2010, if the performance of BSE Mid-cap index is taken in to account.

This index, with a universe of about 280 stocks, returned 12 per cent in 2010 (up to December 27), marginally lagging the bellwether Sensex, which managed about 15 per cent.

Mid-cap stars of the erstwhile rally such as Punj Lloyd, OnMobile Global and Educomp Solutions witnessed steep declines anywhere between 25-50 per cent this year.

However small-cap stocks as represented by the BSE Smallcap index surpassed broad market performance with 22 per cent return.

Late bloomers

Mid-caps are known to be late bloomers, typically gaining pace in the later part of a rally. In the 2007 rally for instance, the Mid-cap index convincingly outperformed its larger peer by over 20 percentage points. But mid-caps are yet to emulate this performance in the two years since the market recovery from March 2009 lows.

Delayed pick-up in earnings growth could be a key reason that can be attributed to the sluggish performance.

After a 12 per cent drop in their profits in the June quarter over a year ago, mid-cap companies expanded their earnings by a healthy 28 per cent in the latest, ended September quarter. The valuations offered to mid-cap stocks too suffered in the early part of the year as a result of poor earnings growth.

Price earnings multiple for the BSE Mid-cap index, for instance, was in the range of 17-18 times until June this year and moved to 20-22 times in October, after the results season.

Large-cap companies on the other hand have seen steady improvement in their profits; although clocking a more sedate 12 per cent growth in earnings in the September quarter over a year ago. Strong financial performance exhibited by large players such as Tata Motors, Hindalco and ITC helped the stock market performance of the bellwether stocks.

Sector tilt

Higher weights to outperforming sectors also played a part in the outperformance of the Sensex over mid-caps. With heavy weightage (as much as 40 per cent) given to outperforming sectors such as finance and IT, Sensex was a clear winner. Unfortunately, the Mid-cap index, despite its tilt towards the finance segment, was pulled down by the housing and construction space, which has the second highest weight in this index.

Corporate governance issues have also cast a shadow on this market-cap segment. The mid-cap index has in fact declined 12 per cent in less than two months now, after a series of negative bulletins such as corporate lending scams as well as allegations of promoter rigging stocks prices broke out. However if one looks at stock performance, a number of mid-cap stocks have been star performers in 2010.

Stocks such as Coromandel International, Tube Investments, Bajaj Finance and United Breweries attracted attention for doubling their stock prices over the last one year. In fact one half of the BSE mid-cap universe delivered returns of over 15 per cent year-to-date, even as a third of the universe sported declines. In contrast, the best stock in the large-cap universe, Tata Motors delivered 65 per cent over this period.

Valuation gap

The lacklustre performance of the mid-cap index has however meant that unlike the 2007 rally, when mid-caps narrowed the valuation gap with the Sensex; the BSE Mid-cap index' price earnings multiple at about 19 times now is well below the Sensex valuation of 23 times. If companies in the segment continue to do a repeat of their September quarter earnings, 2011 could provide scope for mid-cap companies to play catch-up.

Source : BusinessLine.in

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Yes Bank Buy on declines

YES Bank (Rs 298.8): In our review of YES Bank in January, we had written that the stock could decline to the zone between Rs 180 and Rs 200 where investors could buy the stock. The stock however bottomed at Rs 223 in February and went on to record a new life-time high at Rs 388 in November. A correction is currently in progress that has short-term support at Rs 275. Investors with a greater penchant for risk can buy at current levels with stop at Rs 270. Reversal from here can take the stock up to Rs 340 or Rs 380 in the days ahead.

Key medium-term support for the stock is at Rs 255 and investors can continue to hold the stock as long as it trades above this level. Breach of this support can drag the stock down to Rs 214 or Rs 173.

Source Businessline.com

OUR RECOMMENDATION :

The scrip is finding good support around 260 levels and is finding it difficult to go through 370 levels. This present excellent trading opportunity to buy around 280 levels and exit at 360 which gives you an upside of 35% holding period of 3-4 months

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Arvind Limited Buy on declines

Since the March 2009 low of Rs 10, the stock has been on long-term uptrend forming higher peaks and trough. Taking support from its long-term uptrend line around Rs 46, Arvind skyrocketed 30 per cent with good volumes last week.

It has decisively crossed its 21- and 50-day moving average positioned at Rs 50 and is hovering well above them.

Move above Rs 66.5 can lift the stock higher to Rs 80 and then Rs 85 in the medium-term.

Nevertheless, reversal from the resistance at Rs 66.5 will drag the stock down to Rs 55 or further down to Rs 50. Decline below Rs 42 will be a threat for the uptrend. — Yoganand D.

Source : Businessline.com

OUR RECOMMENDATION :

The scrip is finding good support around 50 levels and is finding it difficult to go through 70 levels. This present excellent trading opportunity to buy around 50 levels and exit at 65 which gives you an upside of 35% holding period of 3-4 months.

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JSW Steel Buy on dips

JSW Steel (Rs 1,164.3)

JSW Steel rebounded 11.5 per cent last week after taking support from its significant long-term support band between Rs 1,040 and Rs 1,050.

The stock, however, has been on a medium-term downtrend from its life-time high of Rs 1,400 that it marked on October 4.

The stock currently faces key longer-term resistance at Rs 1,200.

Inability to exceed beyond this level will result in the stock resuming its on-going medium-term downtrend and re-test the support band between Rs 1,040 and Rs 1,050.

Next support is at Rs 950. Strong move above Rs 1,250 will mitigate the downtrend and will pave way to Rs 1,300 or Rs 1,350 levels in the medium-term.

OUR RECOMMENDATION :

The scrip is finding good support around 960 levels and is finding it difficult to go through 1400 levels. This present excellent trading opportunity to buy around 1000 levels and exit at 1350 which gives you an upside of 35% holding period of 3-4 months.

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Dont settle abroad - work in India - Narayana Murthy

BANGALORE: Youngsters looking to settle abroad, especially the US, courtesy IT industry should opt for career growth within India which offers larger growth opportunities than anywhere else in the world, Infosys mentor N R Narayana Murthy said on Tuesday.

"Somehow our youngsters have all assumed the idea of joining this industry is to go to US, get there, get an H1B, convert it into green card and settle down there. I think it is a wrong solution, a wrong strategy," he said while addressing a summit here.

Murthy said one expects youngsters to get good salaries and good disposal of income in India, for which they have to get good quality jobs here. "But their objective cannot be to go and settle down in some other country, especially the US."

"This time you have a great opportunity to consolidate and by working in India, by becoming a good quality professional you will sustain the advantage we have created and will make growth in India a permanent rather than a temporary feature."

On wooing back Indian talent, Murthy said there was no need to increase their salaries by 50 times to ensure this. But their lives could be made easier by providing schools, making sure that power condition and commuting is reasonably all right.

"This is being done by many countries in the world. This is nothing new. This is not rocket science," he said, adding there must also be attempts to ensure that the facilities are enhanced. "I think all state governments must make an attempt to say we will allow as many English medium schools as required because if you do not do so, then the children will not be able to move from one state to another."

Job opportunities available to children who go to English medium schools generally are seen to be of a higher quality and is a reality whether one likes it or not, he said. To get these section back, the combination of financial income coupled with comfort of living in India and with the family should be higher than the financial income and discomfort living abroad, he said.

When asked what his priorities would be if his name was proposed for the President's post, Murthy said: "In a parliamentary democracy like India, President is a ceremonial post. That is the reality."

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Market Khabar 12 July 2010

Markets moved towards new short term highs on the back of positive global cues, reports about good monsoon and IMF’s optimistic forecast about the Indian economy.

On the BSE, the Sensex closed 373 points higher at 17,834 and the Nifty on the NSE ended with 115 points gain at 5,352. Nearly all the sectoral indices ended in green reflecting strong bullish undercurrent. Market breadth was good and heightened action was seen in many midcap and smallcap counters.

Talk of decontrolling the sugar sector and allowing FDI in the retail sector have raised hopes about the government putting reforms agenda on the fast track. Soft food inflation data, improved indirect tax collections and tweaking of exposure margins for stock derivatives by the Sebi had a positive impact on the sentiment. US markets had the best week in a year, sending out an all-is-well hint to other global markets.

Barring any negative news, markets may scale new highs in the week ahead. Key data to watch in the coming week are IIP numbers on Monday, Infosys results on Tuesday and wholesale price inflation data on Wednesday.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 17,540 and 18,360 for the Sensex and 5,230 and 5,540 for the Nifty. Resistances for the week are at 17,970, 18,040 and 18,180 and 5,395, 5,460 and 5,540. Expect support to the indices at 17,660 and 17,480 for the Sensex and 5,300 and 5,240 for the Nifty.

Futures & Options

With the indices edging towards new highs, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Open interest is close to record levels at Rs 1,36,680 crore. Sentiment indicators like open interest, put/call ratio, implied volatility and VIX signal strong move on upside. Buy Nifty-5,500 strike call option, suggest punters.

Ahead of first quarter numbers, Infosys touched a 52-week high. Rupee depreciation may help IT companies report better Q1 numbers, say industry insiders. Buy Wipro, HCL Tech and Rolta. Mphasis, Tech Mahindra and Tulip IT may also move up on news flow.

A renewed buying interest was seen in realty stocks on the reports of visible signs of revival in the housing demand. Further gains indicated in DLF, Unitech, HDIL and IBRL.

Telecom stocks are back in the demand following an upgrade by Credit Suisse. Buy on declines Bharti and Idea. Telecom ancillary provider GTL is tipped for the price target of Rs 600 in next few fortnights.

From the banking pack, PNB, HDFC Bank, IDBI Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank look good for higher levels.

Stronger Euro and Chinese factor may trigger bounce back in metal counters.

After the recent issue of preferential warrants to promoters at Rs 1,210, JSW Steel is reportedly placing equity to a foreign investor at Rs 1,480. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 1,350 in the near term.

Reports of industry majors eyeing tolling business after the finalisation of new toll policy by the government has triggered buying in Noida Toll. Punters tip an unexpected target of Rs 55 in the next few months. Infra firms are expected to benefit on the financing front with the introduction of tax-free bonds.

Stock scan

Ricoh India Ltd, a subsidiary of Japan-based Ricoh Co. Ltd, is a leading player in the area of imaging and document solutions; and networking input/output systems. It offers a wide range of digital copiers, multifunction printers and scanners. Sources indicate the possibility of parent company making Indian subsidiary a hub for exports and also the introduction of new equipment in India. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 80 in medium term.

Auto ancillaries Steel Strips Wheels, JBM Auto, Sundaram Fasteners, Sundaram Clayton and others are attracting interest of savvy investors. Steel Strips Wheels is a leading manufacturer of automotive steel wheels and rims for OEMs of two wheelers and three wheelers. Its client list includes nearly all domestic majors and also prestigious international firms such as Audi, Renault, BMW, Kromag and Turk Tractor. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 350.

JBM Auto, apart from supplying sheet metal components and welded sub assemblies for automotive companies, has a special purpose vehicle division manufacturing tippers, trailers, reefer vans, garbage compactors. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 125.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

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Market Khabar 5 April 2010

Buoyed by positive global cues and expectations of strong earnings season, markets closed on an optimistic note for the fifth straight quarterly rise during the week ended.

On the BSE the Sensex gained 47 points to close at 17,693 and the Nifty on the NSE ended 9 points higher at 5,291. Market breadth was good indicating heightened activity in midcap and smallcap space.

FIIs continued to “pour” money into the markets, keeping the sentiment positive. Shrugging off a slowdown in manufacturing growth in March, markets have begun to focus on the earnings season. Near term direction of the markets to be dictated by monsoon prediction, earnings numbers and RBI credit policy.

Inflation continues to be cause of concern. With the revival of NAC, some analysts fear that “social” spending may go up again on political considerations. Barring unexpected negative news flow markets are likely to gain further steam in next few weeks.

Stay invested and use sharp corrections for buying. For the week ahead chartists predict trading range of 17,460-18,200 for the Sensex and 5,210-5,460 for the Nifty.

Immediate supports for the indices are at 17,560 and 17,400 and 5,240 and 5,180. Expect stiff resistance at 17,900 and 5,400 levels.

Analysts are sensing that a long run for stocks is nearing, after the statement of Mr Bill Gross, who manages the world’s biggest bond fund, who predicts that the bull run in fixed securities is nearing the end. Always check the big picture.

Futures & Options

Trading volumes continued to be subdued in the derivatives segment. Market players attribute this to lack of market dictating “triggers”.

With “weak” players cutting positions ahead of results season, institutions were seen “building” positions. Start of the new financial year may see higher participation from institutional players in the next few weeks.

Options data indicates likely upward move of 150-200 points in Nifty. Hold longs with trailing stop loss. Expectedly technology counters after losses during the early part of the week on reports of dollar weakness have made strong comeback.

Industry sources indicate strong numbers and “positive” guidance for next few quarters. Buy on declines TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL Technologies. Metal and cement stocks were back in demand on reports of robust demand despite recent price increases.

Stay invested and add on declines SAIL, Tata Steel, Sterlite, ACC and Ambuja Cements. Increase in fuel prices on migration to Euro IV compliance norms had “sobering” effect on auto stocks.

However, robust March sales numbers of auto majors indicate that bull run will continue. Stay invested and use declines to buy Ashok Leyland, M&M and Tata Motors.

Firm crude prices and revival in exploration activity in USA may see ONGC, Cairn and Aban Offshore gain strength. Ahead of credit policy banking stocks may trade in a tight range.

Sale of equity by promoters of Mundra Port is reportedly for subscribing to rights issue of another group company Adani Enterprises. Buy in the current weakness Mundra Port for four figure target in next couple of months.

Stock scan

The Supreme Court is expected to pronounce its verdict on the case between Mukesh Ambani-led RIL and Anil Ambani-led RNRL in the next few weeks. Analysts are already studying the possible impact of the verdict. Punters advise “play” in the Ambani stocks through the “options” route to minimise losses and maximise returns.

IFGL Refractories Ltd is engaged in the manufacture of specialised refractories and requisite operating systems for the steel industry. The company has manufacturing facilities in Brazil, China, UK, USA, Taiwan and India. Sources indicate that turnaround performance of last quarter is likely to be repeated in Q4 also. Buy on declines for price target of Rs100 in medium term. Good buying interest seen in Max (I), FDC and Indoco Remedies. Max India has business interests in insurance, healthcare, clinical research and packaging films. Value buy at current levels.

Good brand equity makes “Electral” manufacturer FDC a good buy on declines for three figure target in short term. Heightened interest in the midcap pharma has put Indoco Remedies also in limelight. Buy on declines.

Volume action indicates healthy developments on cards in Secunderabad Healthcare Ltd. Punters tip a target of Rs 45 in the medium term. Vikas Granaries, a manufacturer of single super phosphate fertilizers is tipped for Rs 50 in short term. A strong performance in the last quarter by Standard Industries has seen punters target the stock in recent times. Possible target of Rs75 on cards.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

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BSE aiming 18000

Moving towards 18,000

Sensex (17,692)

There was a flutter of excitement last Monday as Sensex and Nifty scaled their former 2010 highs. But the benchmarks were not allowed to steady themselves at those peaks as a bout of profit booking swept them lower. Since readings from the economy, both local and external, continue to be robust, the Indian benchmarks could accomplish the feat of closing at a new 2010 high in the upcoming weeks; following in the footsteps of their global peers, some of whom have even moved on to new life-time highs.

Volumes were good in both cash as well as derivative segment last week as mid and small-cap stocks moved back in to the thick of the action. Trading interest too remains high and the open interest has already moved above Rs 1 lakh crore. FIIs too remained net buyers, aiding the positive sentiment on the bourses.

We discussed the long and intermediate-term outlook in our last column. Sensex is once again closing in on the intermediate-term resistance zone between 17,800 and 18,200 and investors ought to stay watchful as long as the index does not record an emphatic close beyond 18,500.

The medium-term trend for the index is sideways within the wide range between 14,000 and 18,000. The current up-move from February 8 trough appears to be the third leg of a flat that has the targets of 17,074, 17,954 and then 18,830. If we consider the minor counts of the up-move from 15,651, we get the more modest targets of 17,900 and 18,200.

There is a confluence of targets in the zone between 17,800 and 18,200 and the index appears on the verge of moving in to this zone. The ten-week rate of change oscillator moving above the zero line and the relative strength index at 62 point towards the medium-term trend continuing. However, it needs to be remembered that there is a strong negative divergence in both these oscillator charts.

To put it in simpler terms, there is a strong likelihood of the index moving towards 18,000. Investors with short-term perspective can ride this up-trend with suitable stop losses while long-term investors can wait to see the sustainability of this uptrend before committing fresh funds.

The index could be choppy in a narrow range between 17,500 and 17,800 for a few more sessions before breaking higher to 17,944 or 18,225. This view will be negated on a close below 17,500 and that will pave the way for decline to 17,500 or 17,337 in the near term.

Nifty (5,290.5)

Nifty moved to a new yearly high of 5,329 last Monday before declining to the intra-week low of 5,235.

The short-term trend in this index continues to be up. Formation of higher trough last week signals the possibility of another move higher to 5,323 or 5,378 in the days ahead.

Traders can buy on declines with stop at 5,200. However, breach of this level will imply that the index could decline to 5,187 or 5,080. Swing traders can hold their long positions as long as the index trades above 5,080.

The medium-term view for Nifty is sideways. But the index could push its upper boundary a little to 5,380 or 5,466. Equity benchmarks held close to their recent highs and closed the week with gains. CBOE volatility index closed the week about 2 per cent lower though it is off its recent lows implying that traders continue to feel sanguine. Commodities such as crude and base metals surged higher while dollar declined.

This sent commodity stocks soaring helping Brazil's Bovespa and Mexico's IPC to a new 21-month high.

US stocks were buoyed by strong unemployment data that took Dow to a new 18-month high. Minor counts of the move from February 5 low in the Dow imply that there is another upsurge pending in this index to 11,121 or 11,284. This view will be negated only on a close below 10,800.

Asian stocks had a strong week and breakout is observed in charts of many of the benchmarks such as the KLSE Composite Index, Hang Seng, Nikkei, Shanghai Composite and Thailand's SET. — Lokeshwarri S.K.

Source : Businessline

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Will you buy IT stocks now ??

Will you buy IT Stocks ?

In the past one year, the rupee has appreciated by 11% from levels of over 50/dollar to under 45 currently. Every 1% of rupee appreciation has a negative impact on the net profit of software companies by roughly 1.6%. How have software stocks performed in the past year? They have risen by 135% on an average, as measured by the CNX IT index.
Why is it, then, that information technology (IT) stocks corrected by around 5% in the first three trading sessions of this week after the rupee appreciated from 45.6 last week to 44.9 this week? The accompanying chart shows that the rupee has appreciated gradually through the past year, but this is the first time IT stocks have been affected. How is this time different?

The simple answer is that valuations of IT stocks have become quite stretched. For much of the past year, the earnings of IT companies were being upgraded because of an improvement in the demand environment. Besides, valuations had fallen to rather low levels in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As a result, the rupee appreciation didn’t matter much.

Large IT stocks now trade at 24-25 times fiscal 2010 earnings, and are already factoring in strong earnings growth. In this context, an appreciating rupee could play spoilsport on analysts’ earnings estimates. And it’s not just the 1.5% appreciation in the past week that investors are worried about. The concern is that the upward movement in the rupee is likely to continue, as currency strategists at Standard Chartered Plc have pointed out.

Of course, companies can increase their forex hedges and protect against the anticipated rise in the rupee. But this factor will now play on investor sentiment, especially at current valuations. According to a recent report by Kotak Institutional Equities, “Technology stocks look fairly valued and may find it hard to do well in the face of a stronger rupee.” As an example, Infosys Technologies Ltd trades at an fiscal 2011 price-earnings multiple of 21.5 times based on Kotak’s estimates, even though annual earnings growth estimate between fiscal 2011 and 2013 is lower at 18.6%.

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Profit Booking drags Indian Stock Markets 30 March 2010

Indian markets snapped a four-day winning streak on Tuesday after the NSE Nifty slipped 40 points to end below the 5300 mark. Profit booking was seen in IT heavyweights like Infosys, TCS and Wipro as the rupee continued to appreciate hitting its 52-week high of Rs44.88 against the US dollar. The Oil & Gas major Reliance Industries, a pillar in the recent rally, which took the main indices to 52-week highs, also witnessed some offloading towards the end. In addition, banking heavyweights HDFC Bank and SBI were among the other major laggards.

Till Monday, the situation appeared to be quite under control with the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex closing at 52-week highs. Bulls succumbed to supply pressure as technically stocks looked to be in an overbought zone. What was surprising was that, market breadth for the first time ended in favour of the bulls, out of total 2883 stocks on the BSE, 1,690 advanced against 1,099 declines while 94 stocks remained unchanged.

Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 121 points to end at 17,590 and NSE Nifty lost 40 points to close at 5,262.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan ended higher by 1%, Australia's S&P/ASX also ended higher by 0.4%. Shanghai SE Composite rose 0.2% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was up 0.7%.

In Europe, stocks were trading flat. The DAX in Germany was flat, the CAC 40 index in France was up 0.2% and the FTSE in the UK was flat.

Tata Motors, Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. Ltd. (Hitachi) and Telco Construction Equipment Company Limited (Telcon), a 60:40 joint venture company between Tata Motors and Hitachi, signed an agreement under which Tata Motors has sold a further 20% stake in Telcon in favour of Hitachi for a consideration of Rs11.59bn.

Consequently Telcon will be owned 60% by Hitachi and 40% by Tata Motors.
Standard Chartered Bank and AZB Partners acted as Financial and Legal Advisors respectively for the company to this transaction.

Shares of Tata Motors ended higher by 2.2% at Rs756. The scrip opened at Rs746 it touched an intra-day high of Rs760 and a low of Rs742 and recorded volumes of over 0.73mn shares on BSE.

Shares of LIC Housing Finance fell by 2.8% to Rs861 after the company clarified that it has not made any application to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for a banking licence. The appropriate decision in this regard will be taken only after the RBI notifies the guidelines for issuing banking licence, LIC Housing said. LIC Housing said that it does not know the source of a newspaper report stating that the company may get a banking licence from the RBI.

Shares of Hero Honda slipped by 2% to end at Rs1966. The company declared a Silver Jubilee Special Dividend @ 4000% i.e. Rs80/- per equity share of Rs2/- each.

Daiichi Sankyo is reportedly planning to delist Ranbaxy Labs from the Indian stock exchanges in 4 months. Shares of Ranbaxy shot up to an intra-day high of Rs490 post the news. However, it finally settled at Rs476 losing 1%.

According to reports, Daiichi Sankyo which owns 64% of Ranbaxy is finalizing the modalities for the delisting as it may help the Daiichi to fully integrate the Indian drugmaker with itself.

However, Daiichi Sankyo has denied reports that it will delist Ranbaxy in the next 4 months. Ranbaxy will remain listed in India, said Michiko Igarashi, a spokeswoman for Daiichi Sankyo.

Shares of Supreme Infrastructure advanced by over 1.4% to end at Rs180 after it bagged new order worth Rs442.2mn from Executive Engineer, Construction Division No. 2, PWD B & R Br of Kapurthala for Construction of Judicial Court Complex at Kapurthala over a span of 24 months.

Shares of Pyramid Saimira were locked at 10% upper circuit to end at Rs15.45 after the company announced that the board of directors of the company has approved to sell its film exhibition operations and also Company’s investments in the subsidiaries.

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Indian Stock Markets BSE, NSE Weekly review 19 Mar 2010

Over the week, the Indian markets outperformed its US and Asian peers. Sentiment got a boost after Standard & Poor upgraded India’s outlook to stable from negative. In addition, the US Federal Reserve re-iterated its promise to keep interest rates exceptionally low for the extended period. The index heavyweight Reliance Industries was the star performer leading from the front, the stock shot up nearly 7% during the week. Also, foreign institutions continued to remain net buyers, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs37.78bn in the last five days. However, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs7.54bn. Finally, The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty added 2.5% each to close at 17,578 and 5,263 respectively.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,601 and low of 17,061 while, the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,269 and low of 5,101.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Reliance Industries (up 6.9%), Hindalco (up 6.4%), Tata Steel (up 6%), Cipla (up 5.5%) and Hindustan Unilever (up 4.4%).

The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were ONGC (down 2.6%), Maruti Suzuki (down 2.3%), ACC (down 2.1%), HDFC (down 0.8%) and BHEL (down 0.2%).

The BSE IT Index (up 3.3%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Financial Tech (up 4.1%), HCL Tech (up 3.7%), Infosys (up 3.7%), TCS (up 3%) and Wipro (up 2.3%).

The top losers were Mahindra Satyam (down 1.7%) and Mphasis (down 0.1%).

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the consumer durables sector were Su-Raj Diamonds (up 4.4%), Mirc Electronics (up 2.7%), Whirlpool (up 2.5%), Titan (up 1.1%), Videocon Industries (up 1.1%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 2.7%): The top gainers in the Pharma space were Dr Reddy's Labs (up 6.8%), Strides Arcolab (up 6.6%), Cipla (up 5.5%), IPCA Labs (up 4.8%) and Suven Life Science (up 4.8%).

The top losers were Wockhardt (down 3.9%), Piramal Healthcare (down 3.7%), Aurobindo Pharma (down 3.5%), Panacea Biotec (down 3.4%) and Fresenius Kabi (down 3.1%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 1%): The top gainers in the banking space were Union Bank of India (up 4.9%), PNB (up 4.3%), ICICI Bank (up 2.1%), OBC (up 1.5%) and HDFC Bank (up 1%).

The top losers were IOB (down 4.5%), Karnataka Bank (down 4.4%), Bank of India (down 4%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 3.8%) and Federal Bank (down 2.9%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 0.7%): The top gainers in the auto space were Ashok Leyland (up 6.5%), Tata Motors (up 3%), Hero Honda (up 2.6%), Swaraj Mazda (up 1.4%) and Bajaj Auto (up 1.2%).

The top losers were M&M (down 5.9%), Hindustan Motors (down 2.9%) and Maruti Suzuki (down 2.3%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 3.5%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Chennai Petroleum (up 8.7%), Reliance Industries (up 6.9%), Cairn India (up 3.1%), Shiv-Vani Oil (up 1.5%) and Jindal Drilling (up 0.4%).

The top losers were HPCL (down 3.2%), Essar Oil (down 2.9%), Great Offshore (down 2.8%), ONGC (down 2.6%) and GSPL (down 1.9%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 1.4%): The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Bharat Electronics (up 6.4%), Dredging Corp (up 6.4%), Greaves Cotton (up 6.1%), HEG Ltd (up 4%) and Ingersoll Rand (up 3.7%).

The top losers were Kirloskar Bros (down 25%), Carborundum Universal (down 3.9%),Jyoti Structures (down 2.7%), ABB (down 2.6%) and Aban Offshore (down 1.9%).

The Cement Sector: The top losers in the cement sector were Prism Cement (down 8.2%), ACC (down 2.1%), Madras Cements (down 2%), Shree Cement (down 1.7%) and JK Cements (down 1.5%).

The top gainers were India Cements (up 5.9%), Dalmia Cement (up 3.7%), Ultratech Cement (up 1.4%) and Grasim Inds (up 0.8%).

The Telecom Sector: The top gainers in the telecom space were Idea Cellular (up 14.2%), Shyam Telecom (up 10.7%), RCom (up 6.6%), Tata Teleservices (up 6%) and Bharti Airtel (up 4.3%).

The top losers were Gemini Comm (down 10.1%), Himachal Futuristic (down 3.6%), WWIL (down 2.9%).

The Realty Sector (down 1.4%): The top losers in the Realty space were Anant Raj Indus (down 4.9%), Peninsula Land (down 2.6%), Ansal Props (down 2.6%), Parsvnath (down 1.9%) and HDIL (down 1.5%).

The top gainers were Mahindra Lifespace (up 2.8%), Sobha Developers (up 1%) and DLF (up 0.7%).

The Metals sector (up 3.6%): The top gainers in the metals sector were Tata Steel (up 6%), SAIL (up 5.6%), JSW Steel (up 5.4%), Adhunik Metaliks (up 5%) and Tata Sponge (up 4.5%).

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BSE NSE Weekly Review 01 Feb 2010

Huge resistance at 5000 level for the nifty

Outlook currently remains down ward bias, but market craves for positive cues in the domestic / global front, which can help it move northwards

The week started the week with extreme negative bias as the 3^rd quarter result season closed besides negative macro trends in the global economy. During the week ended 29^th January 2010, the S&P CNX Nifty corrected 153.95 points to close at 4882.05. In the future & option segment it was the expiry week and the rollover was smooth with short positions being created both at the nifty and the stock futures segment. The nifty February series added 2.26 crore shares in open interest (OI) during the week under review. Some of the stock futuresalso added OI, most of them short positions. For e.g. Reliance February futures added 83.38 lakh shares in OI while Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 1.18 crore shares and 80.15 lakh shares in OI during the week ended 29^th January 2010.

The nifty future continued to trade at a discount all throughout the week.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 29th January 2010
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	169.07	9.85
Index Future	3.37	0.22
Stock Future	142.55	4.80
Index Options	9.19	0.86
Stock options	13.97	3.98
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 169.070 crore shares, thus rising by 9.85 crore shares as compared to the previous day. Major activity was witnessed in the stock futures & options segment. (See table OI breakup).

Most active Nifty options (February 2010 series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4800	2000850
Nifty 5000	3799350
Nifty 5100	2768500
Nifty 5200	2933950
Put
Nifty 4500	2089750
Nifty 4600	3031050
Nifty 4700	3470900
Nifty 4800	4877250
Source: NSE

Besides all throughout the week the trend in the nifty option front was not positive as significant call writing was witnessed at 4700 to 5300 strikes simultaneously puts witnessed addition of OI with buying of 4700 to 4900 strikes. Now these indicate strong resistance at 5000 levels for the underlying.

The most active options in the February series were the 4700 to 5000 strikes. The call option on the above mentioned strikes witnessed aggressive writing, while the puts witnessed addition of OI due to fresh buying. All throughout the week the 5000 strike call witnessed 29.96-lakh-share addition in OI while the same strike put witnessed 4.51 lakh additions in OI. Put OI addition was more profound at 4700, 4800 and 4900 strikes while for the calls it was at 4900 and 5000 strike. (See most active Nifty options table).

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
INDIANB	1282600	389400	44
SUNTV	151000	38000	34
IVRCLINFRA	3612000	908000	34
DRREDDY	810400	164800	26
PATNI	653900	122200	23
IBREALEST	12675000	2147600	20
BANKBARODA	2002700	320600	19
COLPAL	275550	43450	19
OPTOCIRCUI	1583040	246840	18
LUPIN	519750	80500	18
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
PIRHEALTH	757500	-243000	-24
DABUR	561600	-132300	-19
ASIANPAINT	21200	-3600	-15
FEDERALBNK	476560	-70633	-13
CROMPGREAV	409000	-60000	-13
MPHASIS	2842400	-182400	-6
MRPL	4899450	-267000	-5
INDHOTEL	4268952	-208890	-5
NAGARFERT	17477250	-740250	-4
HDFCBANK	1539800	-61200	-4
* No of shares Source: NSE

The market may seem oversold at this level although any upward trigger will depend onthe global market due to lack of domestic trigger. 5000 levels for the nifty will remain a key resistance. The outlook currently remains down ward bias, however any positive indicators for the market domestically or internationally may witness significant upward correction.

Source : Capitalmarket.com

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