Market Analysis & Out look 27 Sept 2010

Emboldened by better than expected domestic economic data, flood of FII money and announcement of measures by the government to increase foreign capital inflows to the debt market bulls were seen partying hard during the week that ended.

Both the benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty closed above 20K and 6K at 20045 and 6018 with gain of 450 points and 133 points respectively. After lying low for better part of the week heightened activity was seen in midcap and smallcap stocks by weekend. Expect fireworks in many counters say market watchers.

Despite indices within the striking distance of lifetime highs, retail investor participation has been dismal till date reflecting skepticism over the rally. With FIIs calling the shots and many domestic companies vying with each other to raise capital; liquidity is driving the market for the present. Outstanding F&O positions, stubborn inflation, high trade and current account deficits continue to be causes for concern.

Developments on Ayodhya front, F&O expiry and monthly auto sales numbers may dictate the market course in the coming week. Weekend rally in US markets may see markets open higher at the start of the week. Irrational exuberance is not ruled out.

For the week ahead chartists predict trading range of 19800-20560 for the Sensex and 5910-6240 for the Nifty. Short term supports for the indices are at 19800 & 19580 and 5950 & 5880. Expect a bumpy ride as indices accelerate towards their life time highs.

Futures & Options
With indices moving past 20,000 and 6,000 levels, volumes in the derivative segment have soared to record levels. Average daily turnover was at `1,42,000 crore. Open interest is at all time high of `220000 crore. High put/call ratio clearly indicates that short covering by bears may result in explosive moves. Keep close watch on rollovers to spot winners. It is pertinent to recall that markets have corrected unexpectedly as and when number of stocks in F&O ban list crossed 10-mark.
* Dormant FMCG counters witnessed smart rally on reports price hikes and domestic consumption story. Hold positions in HLL, ITC and Colgate for further gains.
n Auto stocks are revving up ahead of the second quarter results. Buy on corrections Tata Motors, Maruti, M&M and Ashok Leyland. Rumours of buyback or open offer from Suzuki are doing the rounds in Maruti.
* From the pharma pack, Lupin, Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma look good for targets of `435, `625 and `2050 in next few weeks.
* Cement stocks are attracting buying on every decline. Fresh uptrend in ACC, Ultratech and India Cements not ruled out.
* Realty counters are becoming slowly resilient to corrections. Buy on declines DLF and Unitech.
* Reliance pack continues to be underperformer in the present rally.
* Stay overweight in banking, autos, pharma and capital goods sectors. Selective buying suggested in cement, FMCG and metal sectors. Breakout targets of `180, `450, `1500 and `235 for IDBI Bank, Federal Bank, LIC Housing and IDFC are tipped by company watchers.
* Among the side counters looking good are Aban Offshore, Crompton Greaves, KFA, GAIL, JSW Holdings, Nagarjuna Fertilisers, Exide Industries, RILPower and Pantaloon Retail.
* Big losers of the week ended in the markets are Financial Technologies, BEML and HCC may witness relief rally.

Stock scan

Good sales momentum from the residential projects and Jaipur SEZ has triggered renewed buying in Mahindra Lifespace. Buy on declines for target price of `575. Marico’s inorganic growth to expand international business has started paying good dividends. The launch of new products such as functional foods and hair creams by leveraging its flagship brands Parachute and Saffola and by repositioning of Kaya from ‘cure’ to ‘care’, the company is transforming itself from a single product company to a diversified FMCG player. Buy for a target price of `175 in medium term.

A strong order book with good near term earnings visibility and investment by Norwest Venture and Xander in the company’s subsidiary make Sadbhav Engineering good investment bet for target price of `2000 in next few months.

Andhra Petro, Savera Inds, Patel Airtemp and Greaves Cotton are in the buying list of savvy players.

Surge in volumes of Andhra Petroleum clearly spells target of `40 in short term. Ahead of bonus, strong buying indicated in Savera Industries. Patel Airtemp, a manufacturer of process equipment and engineering goods, is attracting good buying interest.

Infrastructure equipment division of Greaves Cotton likely to report strong growth.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

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Bse / NSE - 13 Sept 2010

The markets had its best session in several months on Monday.

The bulls went on a rampage picking up blue chip stocks thanks to the strong industrial production numbers that July threw up and on the back of encouraging economic data from the US and China.

Incidentally, all the reports, the data on industrial production in India, the US wholesale inventories data and the data on Chinese trade surplus, came out over the weekend, setting up a solid platform for the bulls even before the opening bell rang at the Indian bourses today.

Not to let go the opportunity, the bulls made a beeline at the frontline counters - with the banking sector attracting the most attention - and kept lapping up stocks till the very end.

The resultant surge in values of stocks was so sharp that the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty moved past 19,000 and 5700 levels and then way beyond, to record their best levels since January 18 2008.

While the Sensex, which zoomed to 19,243.44, ended the day with a gain of 408.67 points or 2.17% at 19,208.33, the Nifty closed at 5760, slightly off the day's high of 5770.60, with a gain of 119.95 points or 2.13%.

Mirroring strong gains posted by key bank stocks, the Bankex jumped by over 3.6%.

l

3:24 PM: Buy BHEL with a 10-day target of Rs 2550 and stop loss of Rs 2450, says Parsh Zaveri of Zaveri Investments on CNBC Awaaz Send to friends

3:20 PM: Buy Infosys, Wipro and TCS on dips.

These stocks may remain a bit slippery in the near term, but their long term prospects remain bright. HCL Tech and Mphasis can also be picked up at sharp declines. Send to friends

3:16 PM: Buy Federal Bank with a target of Rs 425 and stop loss of Rs 360, says Kunal Saraogi, technical analyst, on Zee Business Send to friends

3:12 PM: Steel Strips Wheels gains 3%

3:08 PM: Buy YES Bank with a target of Rs 344 and stop loss of Rs 322, says Krunal Dayma, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Send to friends

3:04 PM: Vishal Retail gains 8.5%

3:00 PM: Buy Garware Polyster with a target of Rs 250, says DD Sharma of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit Send to friends

2:56 PM: Hold HDFC (Rs 664) and pick up more of it at declines.

The stock is a good one for medium to long term. A fairly good upmove is likely in the near term as well.

2:52 PM: Buy LIC Housing Finance with a 2-3 week target of Rs 1300 and stop loss of Rs 1140, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

2:48 PM: Hold Crompton Greaves (Rs 312) and buy more in small quantities at declines for medium to long term. One with a short term view can book some profits at rallies and buy again later on dips.

2:44 PM: Buy OBC with a target of Rs 480 and stop loss of Rs 447, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

2:40 PM: Bank stocks are likely to see further upside in the near term.

Still, investors with a low appetite for risk would do well to stay stock specific and have strict stop loss triggers in place.

2:36 PM: Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services gains 12%

2:32 PM: Buy Tata Chemicals with a 3-4 day target of Rs 453 and stop loss of Rs 418, says Manoj Sachdeva of Hem Securities on CNBC Awaaz.

2:28 PM: Buy Hero Honda with a target of Rs 1765 and stop loss of Rs 1700, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit

2:24 PM: Reliance Industries gains 2%

2:20 PM: Buy Ahmednagar Forgings with a 4-5 month target of Rs 180 and stop loss of Rs 110, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Send to friends

2:16 PM: State Bank of India gains 4.65%

2:08 PM: Buy Ahmednagar Forgings with a 4-5 month target of Rs 180 and stop loss of Rs 110, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Send to friends

2:04 PM: Housing finance stock HDFC is up 4.8% at Rs 660.65

2:00 PM: Hold DLF with targets of Rs 370 and 400 and stop loss of Rs 300, says Hemant Kale of Maia Financial Services on NDTV Profit.

1:56 PM: Reliance Communications (down 0.7%) is down in negative territory at present.

1:52 PM: Hold Ashok Leyland (Rs 73) and buy more in small quantities on dips for long term. Keep a stop loss near Rs 62.

1:48 PM: Sell Cipla with a target of Rs 296 and stop loss of Rs 312, says Krunal Dayma, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

1:44 PM: One holding Bank of India (Rs 501) with a short term view can book some profits at current levels or rallies. Fresh buying for long term can be considered at sharp declines.

1:40 PM: Buy Whirlpool on dips with a target of Rs 350-360 and stop loss of Rs 290, says Ashish Chaturmotha of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit.

1:36 PM: Buy Shree Renuka Sugars with a 4-6 month target of Rs 90-100, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC Awaaz

1:32 PM: Bank stocks are turning in a sterling peformance today.

1:28 PM: Buy ICICI Bank with a 5-6 day target of Rs 1140 and stop loss of Rs 1015, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

1:24 PM: Hold Everest Kanto Cylinder (cmp Rs 116) with a stop loss near Rs 106. The stock could rise to Rs 125 and a breakout there could result in a surge to Rs 137 or even higher.

1:20 PM: Hold Supreme Industries with a target of Rs 715 and trailing stop loss of Rs 680, says Nikita Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

1:16 PM: Hold Exide Industries (Rs 161) and buy more in small quantities on dips for medium to long term. One looking at short term can exit at rallies and re-enter the counter at sharp declines.

1:12 PM: Buy Adani Enterprises with a target of Rs 735 and stop loss of Rs 675, says Kunal Saraogi, technical analyst, on Zee Business

1:08 PM: Buy Nifty Futures for the target prices of Rs 5650 / 5680 / higher with a stop loss of Rs 5426: ICICIDirect

1:04 PM: Buy Infosys with a 5-7 day target of Rs 2970 and stop loss of Rs 2835, says Imtiaz Qureishi, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz

12:56 PM: Buy Praj Industries (Rs 77) for medium term. The stock could rise to Rs 94 - 98.

12:48 PM: Buy SBI with a target of Rs 3400 and stop loss of Rs 3000, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

12:44 PM: Buy IDFC for the target prices of Rs 192.80/194/Higher with a stop loss of Rs 188.90: ICICIDirect

12:40 PM: Buy Maruti Suzuki with a target of Rs 1335 and stop loss of Rs 1304, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

12:36 PM: Buy HCL Tech for the target prices of Rs 419/421.50/Higher with a stop loss of Rs 409.80: ICICIDirect

12:32 PM: Buy Videocon Industries with a target of Rs 275 and stop loss of Rs 261, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18 Send to friends

12:28 PM: Sell Cairn with a stop loss of Rs 330.20: ICICIDirect

12:24 PM: Sell ITC with a target of Rs 158 and stop loss of Rs 168, says Nikita Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

12:20 PM: Sell Sesa Goa with a stop loss of Rs 315.80: ICICIDirect

12:16 PM: Hold Taj GVK with a target of Rs 220 on breaking above Rs 170 and keep stop loss of Rs 155, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business

12:12 PM: Buy Central Bank of India (Rs 193) for some solid short term gains. One looking at long term can pick up Vijaya Bank, UCO Bank and Syndicate Bank at declines.

12:08 PM: Hold Apollo Tyres with targets of Rs 96 and 106 and stop loss of Rs 80, says Hemant Kale of Maia Financial Services on NDTV Profit

12:04 PM: Buy Opto Circuits (Rs 307) at current levels and add more on dips. The stock is likely to give fairly solid returns over a medium term.

11:56 AM: Hold United Bank with a stop loss of Rs 105, says Pankaj Jain of Satguru Capital on Zee Business

11:52 AM: Hold MTNL (Rs 64) and buy small quantities at declines for medium term.

Though the stock may not move up sharply in the near term, the downside risk looks limited from here.

11:48 AM: Buy Indiabulls Real Estate on dips with a target of Rs 186 and stop loss of Rs 177, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

11:44 AM: Buy Unitech September Futures above 82.45: ICICIDirect

11:40 AM: Buy Bharat Forge at Rs 369 with a 3-4 day target of Rs 390 and stop loss of Rs 362, says Manoj Sachdeva of Hem Securities on CNBC Awaaz

11:36 AM: Buy ZEE September Futures above 292.90: ICICIDirect Send to friends

11:24 AM: Sell Sesa Goa with a target of Rs 300 and stop loss of Rs 320, says Shardul Kulkarni of Angel Broking on NDTV Profit.

11:20 AM: Buy Sanwaria Agro Oils for the target prices of Rs 58 / higher with a stop loss of Rs 48: ICICIDirect

11:12 AM: Buy Mahindra & Mahindra 660 Call at Rs 12 with target of Rs 20, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC TV18

11:08 AM: Buy Nagarjuna Fertilizers for the target prices of Rs 34.80/ higher with a stop loss of Rs 30.50: ICICIDirect

11:04 AM: Buy IDBI Bank with a target of Rs 145 and stop loss of Rs 137, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

11:00 AM: Buy SAIL September Futures above 197: ICICIDirect

10:52 AM: Buy GSFC with a 5-day target of Rs 330 and stop loss of Rs 305, says Parsh Zaveri of Zaveri Investments on CNBC Awaaz.

10:48 AM: Hold GMR Infrastructure and IRB Infrastructure if looking at medium term. Add small quantities of these stocks at sharp declines. Send to friends

10:40 AM: Buy Chambal Fertilisers with a target of Rs 87 and stop loss of Rs 72, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

10:36 AM: Hold IFGL Refractories (Rs 56) and buy more of the stock at declines. The stock could give fairly strong returns over a short to medium term.

10:32 AM: Hold United Bank with a stop loss of Rs 105, says Pankaj Jain of Satguru Capital on Zee Business

10:28 AM: IndusInd Bank (Rs 242) could see further upside in the near term. One can stay invested in the stock. Fresh buying can be considered at declines. Send to friends

10:24 AM: Buy Chambal Fertilisers with a target of Rs 84 and stop loss of Rs 73, says Arun Kejriwal, market analyst, on Zee Business

10:20 AM: Buy SBI for the target price of Rs 2970 with a stop loss of 2950: Praveen

10:16 AM: Buy McLeod Russels futures at Rs 261 with target of Rs 268 and stop loss of Rs 258, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC TV18

10:12 AM: NTPC (Rs 202) is a good buy for medium to long term. One can buy the stock in small quantities on dips. Send to friends

10:08 AM: Buy IDFC with a 1-2 day target of Rs 200 and stop loss of Rs 187, says Imtiaz Qureishi, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

10:04 AM: Resistance for Sensex is at 18885: Gaba Send to friends

9:56 AM: Crucial support for Sensex on the downside is at 18700: Gaba

9:52 AM: Buy Hindalco with a target of Rs 190 and stop loss of Rs 177, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

9:48 AM: Resistance for Nifty is at 5675: Gaba

9:44 AM: Crucial support on the downside for Nifty is at 5600: Gaba Send to friends

9:40 AM: Buy HUL with targets of Rs 288 and 293 and stop loss of Rs 272, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

9:36 AM: Strong IIP data has triggered some hectic buying in opening trades today.

The market could see a bout of profit taking later on in the session. One with a low appetite for risk would do well to have proper stop loss triggers in place.

9:28 AM: Buy GVK Power with a target of Rs 56 and stop loss of Rs 49, says Ashish Chaturmotha of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit

9:24 AM: Buoyed by strong industrial production numbers and a firm trend in global markets, stocks soared higher on the Indian bourses this morning.

The Sensex sailed past the 19,000 mark and is currently up 226 points or 1.2% at 19,025.

The Nifty, which vaulted to 5711.35, is up 65 points or 1.21% at 5705. Send to friends

9:20 AM: Buy Ruchira Papers with a target of Rs 24 and stop loss of Rs 20.75, says Arun Kejriwal, market analyst, on Zee Business

9:16 AM: Asian markets are trading in the positive zone this morning. The Hang Seng has gained 1.3% at 21,540. Nikkei has jumped 1% to 9,331

Source : sify.com

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Market Khabar 23 Aug 2010

Showing good resilience against uncertain global cues markets closed near their 30-month highs. On the BSE the Sensex closed 235 points higher at 18,402 and the Nifty on the NSE added 79 points to close above the psychological level of 5,500 at 5,531.

Market breadth continued to be good with frenetic activity in several midcap and smallcap stocks. Good monsoon, easing food inflation and strong FII inflows kept the sentiment positive. Delay in rollout of GST and DTC may have modest impact on markets feel analysts.

Recent gains in high priced IPO’s like Jubilant Foods, SKS Micro, Bajaj Corp and others in too short a time frame show build up of “bubble” in some pockets of the market. Repetition of Newton’s Law not ruled out.

It is interesting to observe that during the week ended while China, India, Brazil, Sri Lanka and other emerging markets recorded hefty gains; France, UK, Germany and US markets ended with losses after some downbeat economic reports triggered fears of “double dip” recession.

Decoupling theory is back in limelight. Though macro economic data is improving, key risk for Indian market is from ‘foreign’ fear market players. Chartists predict trading band of 18,120-18,790 for the Sensex and 5,410-5,680 for the Nifty. Supports for the week are at 18,240 and 18,040 and 5,480 and 5,420. Expect resistance to indices at 18,520 and 18,620 and 5,580 and 5,660. Short term outlook will turn negative if indices trade below 18,200 and 5,420 levels.

FUTURES & OPTIONS
Ahead of the settlement week derivatives segment witnessed robust volumes. Turnover has crossed Rs1 lakh crore on three trading sessions reflecting rise in speculative activity.
Open interest is close to Rs 2 lakh inclusive of rollovers. Sentiment indicators like implied volatility, open interest, put/call ratio and VIX indicate volatile finish to the current series. Renewed buying interest was seen in FMCG and pharma stocks.
Aurobindo Pharma, Ranbaxy and Lupin look good for more gains. Buy Lupin cum split for “good” ex-split gains. Dabur, Marico and ITC are good bets for steady gains from current levels.

Banking and capital goods extended their recent gains on momentum buying. Slight “tiredness” seen in banking stocks after their recent “spectacular” run. Buy on dips. Likely clearance of Nuclear Liability Bill sparked buying in L&T, Siemens, APIL and BHEL.

Stay invested for present. Range bound activity was seen in IT, metals and realty. Metals look set to stage a strong comeback. Buy on declines Tata Steel, Hindalco and SAIL.

Stay invested in DLF, Unitech and IBREL. Underlying land valuations make Century and Bombay Dyeing good buys on declines. Mild selling was seen in power and telecom counters. After recent correction infra counters IVRCL, NCC, JP Associates and HCC look good for relief rally. Good accumulation seen in cement counters. Use corrections to buy ACC, Ambuja, Ultratech and Samruddhi. Among the side counters Financial Technologies, Noida Toll, BEL, Exide Inds, look good for short term gains.

STOCK SCAN
Sathavahana Ispat Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing of pig iron and metallurgical coke with cogeneration power. Pig iron is the basic raw material for foundry and engineering industries for making castings and engineering components.

With the significant growth in the main user industries like automobiles and construction, pig iron prices are moving upwards again. Despite modest decline in turnover, integration of operations helped the company post 107 per cent increase in net profit in Q1.

UK-based Stemcor, world’s largest steel trading firm had invested at Rs 60 per share for nearly 15 per cent stake and is reportedly not averse to hiking its stake in the company. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 85 in the short term.

After long consolidation heightened activity seen in Vishnu Chemicals and Brigade Enterprises. Vishnu Chemicals manufactures chromium and other specialty chemicals used in pharmaceutical, pigments, dyes, metallurgy, tanning, adhesives and animal feed industries.

Turnaround Q1 performance has triggered strong buying interest in the counter. Buy for target price of Rs 150 in near term. Brigade Enterprises is one of the leading property developers from Bengaluru.
Restructuring of debt and reports of unlocking of value from the subsidiary Brigade Hospitality Services Ltd has put the company in limelight. Spurt in volumes indicates “interested” buying. Buy for target price of Rs 200 in the coming months. Indian Hume Pipes, Lupin, Apollo Hospitals, KCP and Dhanuka Agri are all trading cum split. Buy on declines.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : DC

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Market Khabar 12 July 2010

Markets moved towards new short term highs on the back of positive global cues, reports about good monsoon and IMF’s optimistic forecast about the Indian economy.

On the BSE, the Sensex closed 373 points higher at 17,834 and the Nifty on the NSE ended with 115 points gain at 5,352. Nearly all the sectoral indices ended in green reflecting strong bullish undercurrent. Market breadth was good and heightened action was seen in many midcap and smallcap counters.

Talk of decontrolling the sugar sector and allowing FDI in the retail sector have raised hopes about the government putting reforms agenda on the fast track. Soft food inflation data, improved indirect tax collections and tweaking of exposure margins for stock derivatives by the Sebi had a positive impact on the sentiment. US markets had the best week in a year, sending out an all-is-well hint to other global markets.

Barring any negative news, markets may scale new highs in the week ahead. Key data to watch in the coming week are IIP numbers on Monday, Infosys results on Tuesday and wholesale price inflation data on Wednesday.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 17,540 and 18,360 for the Sensex and 5,230 and 5,540 for the Nifty. Resistances for the week are at 17,970, 18,040 and 18,180 and 5,395, 5,460 and 5,540. Expect support to the indices at 17,660 and 17,480 for the Sensex and 5,300 and 5,240 for the Nifty.

Futures & Options

With the indices edging towards new highs, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Open interest is close to record levels at Rs 1,36,680 crore. Sentiment indicators like open interest, put/call ratio, implied volatility and VIX signal strong move on upside. Buy Nifty-5,500 strike call option, suggest punters.

Ahead of first quarter numbers, Infosys touched a 52-week high. Rupee depreciation may help IT companies report better Q1 numbers, say industry insiders. Buy Wipro, HCL Tech and Rolta. Mphasis, Tech Mahindra and Tulip IT may also move up on news flow.

A renewed buying interest was seen in realty stocks on the reports of visible signs of revival in the housing demand. Further gains indicated in DLF, Unitech, HDIL and IBRL.

Telecom stocks are back in the demand following an upgrade by Credit Suisse. Buy on declines Bharti and Idea. Telecom ancillary provider GTL is tipped for the price target of Rs 600 in next few fortnights.

From the banking pack, PNB, HDFC Bank, IDBI Bank, Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank look good for higher levels.

Stronger Euro and Chinese factor may trigger bounce back in metal counters.

After the recent issue of preferential warrants to promoters at Rs 1,210, JSW Steel is reportedly placing equity to a foreign investor at Rs 1,480. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 1,350 in the near term.

Reports of industry majors eyeing tolling business after the finalisation of new toll policy by the government has triggered buying in Noida Toll. Punters tip an unexpected target of Rs 55 in the next few months. Infra firms are expected to benefit on the financing front with the introduction of tax-free bonds.

Stock scan

Ricoh India Ltd, a subsidiary of Japan-based Ricoh Co. Ltd, is a leading player in the area of imaging and document solutions; and networking input/output systems. It offers a wide range of digital copiers, multifunction printers and scanners. Sources indicate the possibility of parent company making Indian subsidiary a hub for exports and also the introduction of new equipment in India. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 80 in medium term.

Auto ancillaries Steel Strips Wheels, JBM Auto, Sundaram Fasteners, Sundaram Clayton and others are attracting interest of savvy investors. Steel Strips Wheels is a leading manufacturer of automotive steel wheels and rims for OEMs of two wheelers and three wheelers. Its client list includes nearly all domestic majors and also prestigious international firms such as Audi, Renault, BMW, Kromag and Turk Tractor. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 350.

JBM Auto, apart from supplying sheet metal components and welded sub assemblies for automotive companies, has a special purpose vehicle division manufacturing tippers, trailers, reefer vans, garbage compactors. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 125.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

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BSE / NSE weekly analysis 11 June 2010

It was a week of gap-downs and gap-ups. The Indian benchmark indices finally ended the week with decent gains for the third week in a row. After starting on a somber note and facing stiff resistance around 17,000 levels, bulls were back to their scoring ways as the markets managed to recoup all the earlier losses. Better than expected April IIP data backed by positive European cues stemmed any further slide. The Realty stocks witnessed some serious offloading with heavyweights like DLF and Unitech losing over 5%. Lower than expected PMI output data in China led to a fall in Metal prices, which in turn dragged the metal stocks lower. However, the Pharma and the Auto stocks were among the notable gainers. Finally, the NSE Nifty and the BSE Sensex gained 1.3% each during the week.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,131 and low of 16,560 and the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,139 and low of 4,967.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Cipla (up 3.8%), HDFC Bank (up 3.2%), Grasim Inds (up 2.7%), BHEL (up 2.6%) and Acc (up 2.4%).

The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were DLF (down 6.9%), Hindalco Inds (down 5.5%), Infosys Tech (down 3.6%), Tata Steel (down 2.4%) and ICICI Bank (down 2.3%),

The BSE IT Index (down 2.5%):The top losers in the IT sector were Sasken Communication (down 5.5%), HCL Tech (down 4.5%), Patni Computer (down 4%), Infosys (down 3.6%) and Mahindra Satyam (down 3.4%).

The top gainers were Oracle Financial (up 4.1%) and Mphasis (up 1.4%).

The BSE Consumer Index: The top losers in the Consumer Durables were Whirlpool (down 7.8%), Samtel Color (down 1.5%), Titan (down 1.2%), Su-Raj Diamonds (down 0.9%) and Videocon Industries (down 0.2%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 2.5%):The top gainers in the Pharma space were Pfizer (up 6.8%), Astrazeneca Pharma (up 6.2%), Orchid Chem (up 5.7%), Strides Arcolab (up 5.5%) and Dr Reddy's Labs (up 4.3%).

The top losers were Panacea Biotec (down 2.8%), Natco Pharma (down 2.7%), Morepen Labs (down 2.6%), Zandu Pharma (down 2.1%) and Sun Pharma (down 1.3%).

The BSE Banking Index (down 0.2%):The top losers in the banking space were Karnataka Bank (down 3%), Federal Bank (down 2.8%), Union Bank of India (down 2.6%), ICICI Bank (down 2.3%) and Bank of Baroda (down 1.7%).

The top gainers were HDFC Bank (up 3.2%), Canara Bank (up 2.9%), IOB (up 2.5%), PNB (up 1.9%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 1.6%):The top gainers in the auto space were Eicher Motors (up 10.5%), Bajaj Auto (up 5%), M&M (up 3.7%), Maruti Suzuki (up 2%) and Hindustan Motors (up 1.8%).

The top losers were Ashok Leyland (down 2%) and Tata Motors (down 0.9%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 0.2%):The top losers in the oil & gas space were BPCL (down 6.7%), HPCL (down 5.6%), IOC (down 4.5%), MRPL (down 4.1%) and Jindal Drilling (down 2.9%).

The top gainers Reliance (up 1.5%), Shiv-Vani Oil & (up 0.9%) and Cairn India (up 0.4%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 0.9%):The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Alfa Laval India (up 5.3%), Areva T&D (up 5.2%), Ingersoll Rand (up 5%), Jyoti Structures (up 4.8%) and Siemens India (up 3.2%).

The top losers were Carborundum Universal (down 3.5%), Gammon India (down 2.8%), SKF India (down 2.4%), Alstom Projects (down 2.2%) and Astra Microwave (down 1.9%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Binani Indus (up 5%), Mangalam Cement (up 4.9%), Grasim Inds (up 2.7%), ACC (up 2.4%) and Shree Cement (up 2.3%).

The top losers were Kakatiya Cement (down 4.2%), Gujarat Sidhee (down 1.1%), Birla Corp (down 0.9%), India Cements (down 0.7%) and Jk Cements (down 0.6%).

The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom were MTNL (down 5.2%), Shyam Telecom (down 3.4%), TTML (down 3.4%), Idea Cellular (down 2.8%) and Gemini Comm (down 1.1%).

The top gainers were Himachal Futuristic (up 8.6%), WWIL (up 4.5%) and RCom (up 2.4%).

The Realty Sector (down 4%):The top losers in the Realty sector were DLF (down 6.9%), Unitech (down 4.2%), Mahindra Lifespace (down 2.8%), Ansal Props (down 2.7%) and Sobha Developers (down 2.2%).

The top gainers were HDIL (up 1.7%), Parsvnath (up 0.7%), Anant Raj Indus (up 0.7%) and Akruti City (up 0.3%).

The Metals sector (down 2.5%):The top gainers in the metals sector were Tata Metaliks (up 18.2%), Lloyds Metals (up 4.3%), Tata Sponge (up 3.5%), Jindal Steel (up 2%) and Sunflag Iron (up 1.1%).

The top losers in the metals sector were JSW Steel (down 3.4%), Monnet Ispat (down 3.2%), Ispat Industries (down 3.1%), Tata Steel (down 2.4%) and SAIL (down 1.7%).

Source : IIFL

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Market Khabar 24 May 2010

Markets were volatile throughout the week-ended due to the European crisis putting the global economic recovery at risk.

On the BSE, the Sensex dropped 549 points and the Nifty on the NSE shed 162 points to end the week at 16,446 and 4,931 respectively. Volatility indices — fear gauge — across the world have shot up to new short-term highs reflecting investor anxiety. Selling was seen across the board and nearly all the sectoral indices closed in the red. FII selling and weak rupee, which had seen the worst fall in 15 years, also acted as dampener.

According to analysts, the clearance of Wall Street reform bills — supposedly the most comprehensive regulation of the finance industry since the Great Depression — by the US Senate will have a huge impact on the emerging market flows.

Truce between the world’s richest siblings — Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani — agreeing to scrap all existing non-competition agreements between their business groups and to negotiate the gas deal may prove to be the biggest trigger for the markets.

With indices trading below 200-day moving averages, a corrective move to cross them is not ruled out. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,200 and 17,000 for the Sensex and 4,840 and 5,100 for the Nifty.

Resistances for the week are at 16,740 and 16,960 and 4,990 and 5,070. Last week’s lows of the indices at 16,187 and 4,842 may act as major support levels.

Futures & Options

Robust volumes were seen in the derivative segment. It is pertinent to note that the weekly volume also increased the most since second week of March. Trend change, however, is the worry plaguing traders mind. Buy Nifty5000 call option of June series for unexpected returns tip savvy punters. Watch rollovers of stock futures to spot winners for new series. Expectedly Reliance stocks will hog limelight on the back of harmony between the Ambani brothers. Buy RCom, Reliance Infra and Reliance Capital from ADAG pack for relief gains. Buy RIL for surprising gains in the medium-term with a stop loss at Rs 940. A short term target of Rs 1,100 is not ruled out.

After the recent slide infrastructure and metal stocks look good for corrective gains. Buy Lanco Infra, JP Associates, HCC, Tata Steel and SAIL for targets of Rs 62, Rs 132, Rs 130, Rs 540 and Rs 215.

Despite disappointment at the contours of the Abbott-Piramal deal, industry sources say that the deal will help in improving the valuations of other companies. Use corrections to buy and stay overweight in pharma sector.

Savvy long term players have begun nibbling telecom counters. With 3G auction process over, valuations of the battered telecom stocks are looking attractive. Buy Bharti and Idea at current levels for medium term. Banking and capital goods counters may remain range bound in near term.

Stock futures looking attractive are M&M, Tata Motors, IFCI, REC, PTC, Biocon and Maruti. Sharp down moves in counters like Educomp, Aban Offshore and others have unnerved punters. Place stops at technical danger points always on all trades in such wild counters.

Stock scan

Piramal Glass is among the top three flacconage (glass bottle) manufacturers in the world supplying to pharmaceutical, cosmetics and perfumery, specialty food and beverages and decoration industries. Restructuring of operations coupled with improved realisations helped the company post excellent turnaround performance. With the promoter group Piramal flush with cash from Abbott deal, market players expect them to concentrate more on Piramal Glass. Buy on declines for price target of Rs 175 in medium term.

Ramco Industries is one of the best performing, highly efficient producers of fibre cement sheets in India. It has pioneered and introduced the innovative calcium silicate board — a versatile building interior product — in India. The company holds investments in the group companies, presently valued at Rs 400 crores giving an enterprise value of Rs 880 crore to the company. At current price levels, the market capitalisation is only Rs 550 crore, making Ramco a good investment bet for the medium term.

Solar Industries is one of the largest comprehensive explosives and explosive initiating devices manufacturers in the country. With the superior quality of its products, the company has garnered good market share in southeast Asia, Middle East and some African countries.

Results of many smallcap and midcap textile companies are better than expectations. Re-rating and a renewed interest is clearly evident in several stocks.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : DC

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BSE NSE Weekly Analysis 01 April 10

After enjoying a spectacular run in FY10, the Indian benchmark indices ended the week on a flat note halting its seven-week winning streak. The Nifty and the Sensex although started off the week by hitting their respective 52-week highs, however, the surge showed some signs of slackening. Headwinds include inflation, an impending hike in interest rates. Monsoon will be crucial. The earnings and guidance from India Inc would be the closely watched in the ensuing weeks.

The Realty, Capital Goods and the Power stocks were in demand during the week; even small-cap stocks attracted buying interest. On the other hand, the IT stocks were among the top laggards as the rupee appreciated to its 52-week high of Rs44.88 as against the US dollar.

The FII continued to be net buyers in the Indian markets. They bought stocks to the tune of Rs40.46bn in the last four days. On the other hand, the DIIs were net seller to the tune of Rs7.55bn.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 17,793 and low of 17,488 and the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 5,329.5 and low of 5,235.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were HDFC (up 6.5%), DLF (up 5.8%), Tata Motors (up 3.7%), Hindalco (up 2.9%) and NTPC (up 2.5%)

The Top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Infosys (down 3.8%), Hindustan Unilever (down 3.4%), Hero Honda (down 3.3%), Bharti Airtel (down 2.6%) and TCS (down 2.1%).

The BSE IT Index (down 3%): The top losers were Infosys (down 3.8%), HCL Tech (down 3.7%), Financial Tech (down 3.5%), Patni Computer (down 3.3%) and TCS (down 2.1%).

The top gainers in the IT sector were Wipro (up 0.5%), Oracle Financial (up 0.4%) and Sasken Communication (up 0.2%).

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the Consumer Durables sector were Samtel Color (up 4.7%), Su-Raj Diamonds (up 3.1%), Titan Inds (up 3.1%) and Mirc Electronics (up 2.7%).

The top losers were Whirlpool (down 3.1%) and Videocon Industries (down 0.6%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 0.2%): The top gainers in the Pharma space were Morepen Labs (up 14.7%), Glenmark Pharma (up 7.1%), Emami (up 6.1%), Astrazeneca Pharma (up 6%) and Torrent Pharma (up 5.8%).

The top losers were Cipla (down 1.7%), Dr Reddy's Labs (down 1.6%), Lupin (down 1.6%), Orchid Chem (down 1.5%) and Zandu Pharma (down 1.1%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 0.7%): The top gainers in the banking space were Andhra Bank (up 7.9%), Bank of India (up 7.8%), Karnataka Bank (up 7.5%), Union Bank of India (up 6.3%) and Oriental Bank of Commerce (up 2.9%).

The top losers were Axis Bank (down 1.7%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 0.7%), HDFC Bank (down 0.6%) and Allahabad Bank (down 0.1%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 0.5%): The top gainers in the auto space were Hindustan Motors (up 8.5%), Eicher Motors (up 6.6%), Ashok Leyland (up 5.2%), Tata Motors (up 3.7%) and Bajaj Auto (up 1%).

The top losers were Hero Honda Motor (down 3.3%), Swaraj Mazda (down 1.3%), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 1.1%) and Maruti Suzuki (down 0.3%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 0.3%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Shiv-Vani Oil (up 8.3%), Hindustan Oil (up 4.7%), Cairn India (up 4.7%), MRPL (up 4.3%) and Chennai Petroleum (up 2.4%)

The top losers were Jindal Drilling (down 1%), Reliance Inds (down 0.8%) and Essar Oil (down 0.2%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 1.4%): The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Crompton Greaves (up 6.6%), Esab India (up 6.4%), Usha Martin (up 6.2%), SKF India (up 5.1%) and Elgi Equipments (up 5.1%).

The top losers were Kirloskar Bros (down 25%), Astra Microwave (down 2.5%), Areva T&D (down 1.1%), Siemens India (down 0.9%) and Dredging Corp (down 0.7%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Prism Cement (up 8.9%), Kakatiya Cement (up 6.7%), Shree Cement (up 4.3%), Gujarat Sidhee (up 4.1%) and Mangalam Cement (up 3.9%)

The top losers were Grasim (down 1.6%) and JK Cements (down 0.2%).

The Telecom Sector: The top gainers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (up 9.2%), Gemini Comm (up 7%), WWIL (up 2.8%), RCom (up 1.7%) and MTNL (up 1.4%).

The top losers were Idea Cellular (down 3.1%), Bharti Airtel (down 2.6%), Shyam Telecom (down 1.5%) and TTML (down 0.2%).

The Realty Sector (up 3.3%): The top gainers in the real estate space were DLF (up 5.8%), Unitech (up 5.2%), Omaxe (up 4.2%), Peninsula Land (up 3.9%) and Sobha Developers (up 3.3%).

The top losers were Akruti City (down 2.2%) and Ansal Props (down 1.4%).

The Metals sector (up 1.8%): The top gainers in the metals sector were Sunflag Iron (up 10.5%), Tata Sponge Iron (up 5.8%), Ispat Industries (up 4.7%), Jindal Stainless (up 3.7%) and SAIL (up 3.3%).

The top losers in the metals sector were Monnet Ispat & E (down 2.4%), Lloyds Metals (down 2.3%), Tata Metaliks (down 1.3%) and Jindal Steel (down 1.1%).

Source : IIFL

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Market Khabar 8 Feb 2010

Markets ended in red for the third week in a row in the weekend following global worries on fiscal deficits of euro zone countries, continuous rise in food inflation and tepid response to NTPC FPO.

On the BSE, the Sensex shed 442 points to end below 16,000-level at 15,916 and the Nifty on the NSE closed 115 points lower at 4,767.

As expected market breadth continued to remain weak and jittery investors were seen cutting positions.

Sources suggest an aggressive policy action from the government to control inflation. The worst is over on inflation front.

Watch out for expectations over the Union Budget to spot likely beneficiary industries. Sources say stimulus packages will not be trimmed to a large extent and only minor tinkering is on cards. Weekend rebound in US markets from lower levels may trigger a relief rally from current levels.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 15,550 and 16,420 for the Sensex and 4,540 and 4,960 for the Nifty.

Experts do not expect the indices to breach the 200-day moving averages at 15,530 and 4,650 levels easily and expect a mild recovery rally from current levels. Avoid aggressive shorts at current levels. Initiate fresh positions if indices sustain above 16,300 and 4,840 levels on closing basis.

You cannot tell how expensive a stock is. A stock’s value is depends on its earnings — a Rs 100 stock can be cheap if the firm’s earnings prospects are high, while a Rs 10 stock can be expensive if earnings potential is dim.

Futures & Options

High intra-day volatility is back and becoming a way of life for derivatives traders.

Overall open interest has again crossed Rs 1 lakh crore mark to settle at Rs 1,09,000 crore on Friday. As expected Nifty holds top position with 66 per cent share of the total. Contrarians tip buying of Nifty4,900 call option for unexpected returns in pre-budget rally.

Jittery market players were seen unwinding positions in bank, auto, realty and metal stocks. Punters suggest buying in SAIL, Tata Steel, Unitech, DLF and Nalco for relief rally gains. Among the stock futures looking good in an otherwise weak market are Asian Paints, Tata Power, Opto Circuits, Triveni, Essar Oil, Cummins, Mphasis and Petronet.

Buy oil marketing companies — IOC, BPCL and MRPL — for surprising returns. Side counters such as HCC, Punj Lloyd, JP Hydro and CESC are witnessing accumulation from savvy players.

Buy HCC for a target price of Rs 150 in the settlement. For the pre-budget trading, punters expect action in fertiliser, capital goods and power stocks. Buy Tata Power, Reliance Power and CESC at current levels.

Fallout from the luke warm response to the FPO of NTPC likely to be short lived. Buy strong PSU counters in the current weakness. Punters tip Engineers India, Power Finance and REC for short term.

Investors need to have realistic expectations. When expectations are too high, it results in overtrading underfinanced positions and very high levels of greed and fear, which makes objective decision-making impossible.

Stock scan

Vishnu Chemicals has posted good turnaround results. For the last nine months, the company has clocked net profit of Rs 4.18 crore in comparison to a loss of Rs 5.85 crore in the previous fiscal. Vishnu Chemicals is a world class manufacturer of chrome chemicals and animal feed ingredients and has recently set up a new state of the art manufacturing and R&D facility at Visakhapatnam. Sources indicate that the production of some peptides has also started and the company has reportedly tied up some CRAMS deals also. High promoter equity at 75 per cent reflects the confidence of the promoters. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 150.

Auto ancillary Subros continued its good performance on the back of reviving demand from its key clients — Maruti and Tata Motors. Volume and value led growth clearly reflect that cool times are back for the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 100.

AP Paper is reaping the benefits of its recently concluded expansion. Bettering the industry margins, the company has reported an excellent nine month performance. Stay invested in the counter for a target price of Rs 150.

Infoedge is a leading prov-ider of online recruitment (naukri.com), matrimonial (Jeevansaathi.com), real estate (99acres.com) and related services in India. The company is aggressively expanding into education, professional networking and other related segments. Buy the company’s stock at the current levels for a target price of Rs 1,300 in the next couple of months.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

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BSE NSE Weekly Review 01 Feb 2010

Huge resistance at 5000 level for the nifty

Outlook currently remains down ward bias, but market craves for positive cues in the domestic / global front, which can help it move northwards

The week started the week with extreme negative bias as the 3^rd quarter result season closed besides negative macro trends in the global economy. During the week ended 29^th January 2010, the S&P CNX Nifty corrected 153.95 points to close at 4882.05. In the future & option segment it was the expiry week and the rollover was smooth with short positions being created both at the nifty and the stock futures segment. The nifty February series added 2.26 crore shares in open interest (OI) during the week under review. Some of the stock futuresalso added OI, most of them short positions. For e.g. Reliance February futures added 83.38 lakh shares in OI while Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 1.18 crore shares and 80.15 lakh shares in OI during the week ended 29^th January 2010.

The nifty future continued to trade at a discount all throughout the week.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 29th January 2010
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	169.07	9.85
Index Future	3.37	0.22
Stock Future	142.55	4.80
Index Options	9.19	0.86
Stock options	13.97	3.98
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 169.070 crore shares, thus rising by 9.85 crore shares as compared to the previous day. Major activity was witnessed in the stock futures & options segment. (See table OI breakup).

Most active Nifty options (February 2010 series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4800	2000850
Nifty 5000	3799350
Nifty 5100	2768500
Nifty 5200	2933950
Put
Nifty 4500	2089750
Nifty 4600	3031050
Nifty 4700	3470900
Nifty 4800	4877250
Source: NSE

Besides all throughout the week the trend in the nifty option front was not positive as significant call writing was witnessed at 4700 to 5300 strikes simultaneously puts witnessed addition of OI with buying of 4700 to 4900 strikes. Now these indicate strong resistance at 5000 levels for the underlying.

The most active options in the February series were the 4700 to 5000 strikes. The call option on the above mentioned strikes witnessed aggressive writing, while the puts witnessed addition of OI due to fresh buying. All throughout the week the 5000 strike call witnessed 29.96-lakh-share addition in OI while the same strike put witnessed 4.51 lakh additions in OI. Put OI addition was more profound at 4700, 4800 and 4900 strikes while for the calls it was at 4900 and 5000 strike. (See most active Nifty options table).

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
INDIANB	1282600	389400	44
SUNTV	151000	38000	34
IVRCLINFRA	3612000	908000	34
DRREDDY	810400	164800	26
PATNI	653900	122200	23
IBREALEST	12675000	2147600	20
BANKBARODA	2002700	320600	19
COLPAL	275550	43450	19
OPTOCIRCUI	1583040	246840	18
LUPIN	519750	80500	18
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
PIRHEALTH	757500	-243000	-24
DABUR	561600	-132300	-19
ASIANPAINT	21200	-3600	-15
FEDERALBNK	476560	-70633	-13
CROMPGREAV	409000	-60000	-13
MPHASIS	2842400	-182400	-6
MRPL	4899450	-267000	-5
INDHOTEL	4268952	-208890	-5
NAGARFERT	17477250	-740250	-4
HDFCBANK	1539800	-61200	-4
* No of shares Source: NSE

The market may seem oversold at this level although any upward trigger will depend onthe global market due to lack of domestic trigger. 5000 levels for the nifty will remain a key resistance. The outlook currently remains down ward bias, however any positive indicators for the market domestically or internationally may witness significant upward correction.

Source : Capitalmarket.com

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