List of IPOs coming up soon

MUMBAI: Fourteen Initial Public offerings (IPOs) are ready to hit the market in the next 3-6 months. Since June, 12 IPOs have hit the market, raising Rs 14,600 crore.

More than 40 companies have raised Rs 33740 crore through Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs) since April.

QUICKTAKES

Funds to be deployed for expansion plans, retiring debt, and for working capital
On back of rising stock prices, companies managed to raise funds. OIL India only IPO holding strong on bourses, Power IPOs laggards since listing

IPO pipeline
Company Issue size( in Rs cr)

JSW Energy 3000
Jindal Power 4000
Sterlite Energy 5100
GMR Energy 1500
Reliance Infratel 4200
Sahara Prime City 3450
Ambience 1293
Lodha Dev 2500
Emaag MGF 3850
BPTP 2000
Nitesh Estates 550
DB Realty 1500
Godrej Properties -
Hathway Cables -
Total amount 32943

Break-even price for QIB

Oil India Rs 1128
Adani Power Rs 105
Pipavav Shipyard Rs63
NHPC Rs 42

Weak IPOs

NHPC, Adani subscribed more than 20 times
Adani, NHPC priced at top of their price bands
Huge selling seen from high net worth individuals

Source : UTVI.com

Upcoming IPOs will you invest ?

“The more dependent the valuation becomes on anticipations of the future - and the less it is tied to a figure demonstrated by past performance - the more vulnerable it becomes to possible miscalculation and serious error.”

- Benjamin Graham

***

The observation by the legendary investor, in a lot of ways, captures the essence of the Indian IPO (initial public offer) market, which has been a notable victim of price abuse. The incestuous relationship shared by investment bankers and promoters has made a mockery of the so-called price discovery mechanism. A frenzied bull market also acted as a stimulant. For proof, consider this: Of the 286 IPOs from 2004 to September 2009, 184 issues are still in the red. In fact, had things not turned nasty on the global front, the Indian primary markets would have probably ended up raising more than the record Rs 52,219 crore mopped up by 90 IPOs in FY08.

While the last fiscal was a complete washout with only 21 issues managing to mop up Rs 2,034 crore, the inexplicable turnaround since March this year has put the IPO gravy train back on track. Eleven issues have raked in Rs 13,035 crore and, not surprisingly, five issues are already trading below their issue prices. Continuing with the tradition of aggressive pricing, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts was the first off the block in the current fiscal to raise money at 30x its 12-month trailing earnings. Having seen that the world is flush with funds and global investors are continuing to buy the India growth story pumping in over $12 billion since March, the pipeline for new issues is getting longer with every passing day.

As on date, 53 issues worth Rs 31,112 crore are waiting to hit the markets. A majority of these issues are from the realty, power and construction sectors, which have been the biggest gainers in the rally thus far. The list also features smaller companies driven by “first-generation entrepreneurs” looking for capital to “grow their businesses”. For those who are looking for a “gem” of an IPO, the list has also some jewellery makers.

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http://www.outlookprofit.com/article.aspx?262488

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Intelligent Investor

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Market Khabar 26 Oct 2009

After closing Samvat 2065 on a “high” note, markets started the first week of new Samvat 2066 on a jittery note dampening the festive spirits.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex closed 515 points lower at 16,810 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) fell by 145 points to settle below 5,000-mark at 4,997.

Renewed selling from FIIs and the reports of unwinding of Galleon and Lehman positions has dampened the sentiment. Weak global cues coupled with news flow like RIL’s “empty” gas well, the rise in inflation index and none too enthusiastic results from capital goods majors triggered short term negative trend. Promoters’ “greed” in raising funds is increasing supply of commercial ‘paper’ and resulting in drying up of liquidity in secondary markets.
Key events in the week ahead are F&O settlement and RBI’s midyear credit policy. Market players do not expect any changes in key rates but are more “interested” in “comments” of central bank over economy. Next week will also see last batch of Q2 results signaling heightened stock specific volatility.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,340 and 17,200 for the Sensex and 4,820 and 5,180 for the Nifty. Supports for the indices are at 16,650 and 16,420 and 4,920 and 4,840.
Expect resistance to the indices at 17,050 and 17,190 and 5,060 and 5,140. Be bullish only above 17,150 or 5,100 on closing basis. Nifty closing below 4,860 may see markets trade range bound on weak note for next few weeks.
When expectations are too high, it results in overtrading underfinanced positions, and high levels of greed and fear-making objective decision making impossible.

SATTA GUPSHUP
* Brahmaputra Infra is reportedly blessed by politicians and has bagged large infra projects in north India. Order book has swelled to over Rs 1,200 crore. Excellent Q2 results and expected annualised EPS of Rs25 make it good bet at current levels. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 175 in medium term. . * Nectar Lifesciences is one of the largest manufacturers of cephalosp-orin range of products and has recently diversified into phytochemicals (it has grabbed 25 per cent global market share in mint derivatives) and hard gelatin capsules. It is also a preferred CRAMS player for leading pharmaceutical companies. Buy for a target price of Rs 45.
* Vinati Organics is the world’s largest producer of IBB (prime raw material for manufacture of Ibuprofen, a vital bulk drug) and one of the few and second largest manufacturer of ATBS in the world. Excellent Q2 results indicate annualised EPS of over Rs 40. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 450.
* Honeywell is a leading provider of integrated automation and software solutions for infrastructure, petrochemicals, automobiles, hospitality and mining sectors. Sources indicate buyback offer for delisting or liberal bonus issue in next few months.

F & O
Ahead of F&O settlement, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Open interest is at the “uncomfortable” level of Rs 1,12,000 crore. Other sentiment indicators like put/call ratio, implied volatility and VIX indicate “rough” times.
Avoid large positions and trade lightly. Among stock futures, short build up seen in ACC, BHEL, Grasim, RIL, RCom, Tata Motors, Unitech, Hero Honda, Punj Lloyd and GAIL. Good long build up was seen in GSPL, PTC, IDBI, Polaris, Bajaj Hindustan, Hindalco, Hind Zinc and IDFC.

FMCG and IT stocks were the “flavour” of the week ended. ITC, Colgate and Dabur look good for further gains. Add on declines. Midcap IT counters like Polaris, Mphasis, Rolta and Patni may see upside on short covering till expiry. Hold positions in frontline IT biggies for further gains. With copper prices touching multi month highs, non-ferrous counters Sterlite and Hindalco may log gains. JSPL looks good for four figure target.

DCHL, Welspun, Cummins and LIC Housing look good for near term gains.
Reform measure making states to bear the burden of difference between “advis-ed prices” and the Centre’s rate is a “relief” for sugar mills. Buy on declines Shree Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan and Triveni.

Ahead of RBI credit policy, banking stocks witnessed selling at higher levels. Use sharp declines to buy PSU banks. Barring M&M and Ashok Leyland auto counters are losing “speed” and are showing signs of fatigue. Trade cautiously. Don’t try to outguess the market. Buy in a selling market, when nob-ody wants stock. Sell in a buying market when everybody wants stock.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

Weekly Analysis - Sectoral Review19-23 Oct 09

The run ahead of fundamentals came to a halt with keyindices closing lower this week. Besides the expected profit taking after aseven-month rally, the RIL-RNRL court battle added to the weakness. Quarterlynumbers from India Inc. also failed to cheer sentiment on Dalal Street. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex closed the week down by 3% and NSENifty closed lower by 2.8%.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-weekhigh of 17,457 and low of 16,721 while, the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of5,182 and low of 4,968.

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased Rs51.2bnduring the week. On the other hand, the Domestic Institutions were net sellers tothe tune of Rs15.7bn during the week.

The top gainers: The topgainers in the Sensex were TCS (up 10%), Tata Power (up 6.7%), DLF (up 4.9%),Hindalco (up 4.8%) and Wipro (up 2.4%).

The Top Losers: The toplosers in the Sensex were Grasim (down 10.3%), Tata Steel (down 7.8%), TataMotors (down 7.7%), L&T (down 7.2%) and Reliance Capital (down 6.9%).

The BSE IT Index up 3.6%:

The top gainer in the IT sector was TCS. The stock shot up over 10%during the week. According to report released by IIFL during the week, “TCSbeat our expectation with ~4% QoQ US$ revenue growth in 2QFY10—a number webelieve will be the best in this quarter among the top-3 vendors. Volumes grew~5% QoQ and EBITDA margin expanded by ~150bps, despite a hike in variablesalary payout (payout of 150%). The company’s products business is recoveringstrongly after a bad year—revenues are up 60% since 4QFY09. Stronger signs ofgrowth are also evident in its key vertical, BFSI (45% of revenues), astechnology integration deals ramp up. The appreciating rupee is a risk andpressures in the telecom, manufacturing and high-tech domains make a strongerrecovery unlikely. However, given stronger volume growth and margin expansion,we upgrade our FY10 and FY11 EPS estimates by 8% and reiterate ourrecommendation to switch from Infosys to TCS and Wipro.”

HCL Tech rose over 8% duringthe week. The company tied up with Microsoft to provide retail banking solutionto help banks in the Asia-Pacific.

Wipro was up 2.4% during theweek. The company entered into a 10-year IT outsourcing agreement with DelhiInternational Airport Ltd for providing IT infrastructure and services for IGIAirport here.

Mphasis (up 6%) and PatniComputer (up 4.6%) were among the other notable gainers.

The top losers were FinancialTech (down 5.7%), Mahindra Satyam (down 5.3%), Oracle Financial (down 4.1%) andSasken Communication (down 0.7%)

The BSE ConsumerIndex:

The top losers in the consumer durables space were Blue Star (down7.2%), Titan (down 3.9%), Videocon Industries (down 3.2%) and Su-Raj Diamonds(down 3.1%).

Whirlpool surged by over 10.2%during the week.

The BSE Healthcare Index down 1.4%:

The top losers were Panacea Biotec (down 7.3%),Divis Labs (down 5.4%), Ranbaxy (down 5.2%), Zandu Pharma (down 3.4%) and SuvenLife (down 3.3%).

The top gainers in the Pharma sectorwere Astrazeneca Pharma (up 18.2%), Strides Arcolab (up 9.2%), Dishman Pharma(up 6.3%) and Glaxosmithkline (up 3.7%).

The BSE Banking Index down 3.4%:

Thetop losers in were Bank of India (down 5.7%), Bank of Baroda (down 3.8%), ICICIBank (down 3.4%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 3.3%) and HDFC Bank (down 1.8%).

The top gainers in the banking spacewere Karnataka Bank (up 14.6%), Yes Bank (up 8.9%), Federal Bank (up 7.4%),Andhra Bank (up 7.1%) and Allahabad Bank (up 6.2%).

The BSE Auto Index down2.3%:

The top loser in the Auto space was Tata Motors. The stock fell 7.7%during the week. According to reports, the service tax department has issued ashow-cause notice to the company relating to a potential service tax liabilityof Rs3.25bn for five years between 2004-05 and 2008-09.

Despite spectacular quarterlynumbers, Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda were at the receiving end. Bajaj Auto slipped5.4% during the week. The company’s net profit in the second quarter of thisfiscal stood at Rs4.03bn against Rs1.85bn in the July-September 2008 period.Sales revenue for the company grew 15% in the period to Rs27.93bn againstRs24.2bn in the corresponding period.

Hero Honda fell 4.4% during theweek. According to a report released by IIFL during the week, “The company reportedPAT rose 95% YoY to Rs5.97bn—7% higher than our expectation. EBITDA margin expanded130bps QoQ to 18.3% (in 1QFY10, the company had spent Rs360m on advertisingduring Indian Premier League).

• But margin has likelypeaked—going forward, margins would be affected by rising commodity prices andincreasing competitive intensity in the two-wheeler space.

• The company produced 340,000vehicles during 2QFY10 at its Uttaranchal plant (tax incentives) and istargeting a production of 1.3m vehicles for FY10. Given the increasedproduction at Uttaranchal, the company’s tax rate fell 130bps QoQ to 22.3%.

• Management has revised itsguidance on FY10 tax rate from 24% to 22%. We raise our FY10 and FY11 EPSestimates by 8% and 6% as we revise our tax rate assumptions to 22% and 21%respectively. We maintain ADD with a revised target price of Rs1,850 (16xFY11ii).”

Among the other major loserswere M&M (down 3.4%) and Hindustan Motors (down 3.3%).

The top gainers were EicherMotors (up 2.5%), Swaraj Mazda (up 1.5%) and Ashok Leyland (up 0.2%).

Rico Auto Industries, facinglabour unrest since October 18, has reported a daily production loss of about25% at its Gurgaon plant, due to the unrest caused by a group of 16 employees.

The BSE Oil & Gas Index down 6.1%:

The top loser in oil & gas space was ONGC. Thestock was down by over 6.5% during the week. The Petroleum and Natural GasMinistry has suggested that the company explore the possibility of hiving offits Assam assetinto a wholly-owned subsidiary, stated reports.

Reliance Industries fell 5.7% during the week. TheSupreme Court said on the dispute between Reliance Industries and RNRL the twocould work out a “suitable arrangement” for the supply of gas if there is noprovision for arbitration as per the scheme of demerger between the two groups.

Shiv-Vani Oil (down 5.8%), MRPL(down 5.6%) and Jindal Drilling (down 4.7%) were among the other major losers.

The top gainers were GSPL (up5.3%), IOC (up 2.3%), Cairn India (up1.7%) and Gujarat NRE Coke (up 0.4%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index down 6%:

The top gainers in the capital goods sector wereKirloskar Brother (up 15.4%), Elgi Equipments (up 10%), Esab India (up5.7%), SKF India (up 3.7%) and Alfa Laval India (up2.8%).

The top losers were AstraMicrowave (down 8.3%) and Usha Martin (down 7.1%), LMW (down 5.9%).

L&T fell 7% during theweek. The company posted 26% rise in profit at Rs5.8bn in the second quarter,aided by a one-time gain from sale of its ready mix concrete (RMC) business andstake sale in a paper manufacturing joint venture.

BHEL was down 4.3% during the week. BHEL announced its Q2 net profitat Rs8.58bn registering a growth of 39% YoY as against Rs6.16bn in the sameperiod last year. While, net sales stood at Rs66.25bn as against Rs53.4bnposting a growth of 24% YoY.

The Cement Sector:

The toplosers in the cement space were Prism Cement (down 13.3%), Grasim (down 10.3%),JK Cements (down 7.2%) and Gujarat Sidhee (down 6.7%).

Ultratech Cement fell 8.5%during the week. A reports released by IIFL during the week stated that“UltraTech Cement’s (UCL) 2QFY10 result was largely in line with ourestimates—net sales up 10% YoY at Rs15.4bn; (against our expectation ofRs15.9bn); EBIDTA up 58% YoY at Rs4.7bn; and PAT up 53% YoY at Rs2.5bn (both inline with our estimates).

• Sales volume up only 5% YoY,despite sharp increase in capacities, as demand was sluggish in UCL’s keymarkets.

Blended realisation rose 6% YoYand 1% QoQ, but dropped 3% QoQ after factoring in freight expenses. We expectimpact of falling prices in UCL’s markets to reflect from 3QFY10.

• We largely retain ourearnings estimates (pre-merger) for FY10 and FY11. We will review our estimatespost announcement of merger ratio with Samruddhi Cement (SCL). We expect UCL tobenefit from the SCL merger, as it will make UCL the largest cement company in India with abalanced exposure to all regions (it currently has very high exposure to westand south markets). We maintain ADD on the stock.”

The top gainers were KakatiyaCement (up 1%) and Birla Corp (up 0.2%).

The Telecom Sector:

The toplosers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (down 7.7%), Idea Cellular(down 5.6%), WWIL (down 4.1%), Shyam Telecom (down 2.6%) and TTML (down 2.1%).

The top gainers in the Telecom spacewere Gemini Comm (up 31.1%), Bharti Airtel (up 1.8%) and RCom (up 0.3%).

The Realty Sector down3.5%:

The top losers in the real estate sector were Parsvnath (down 8%),Ansal Props (down 4.5%), Unitech (down 3.9%), Sobha Developers (down 3.2%) and Peninsula Land (down2.9%).

The top gainers in Real Estatewere Anant Raj Indus (up 6.7%), DLF (up 4.9%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 4.5%) andAkruti City (up0.5%).

The Metals sector down1.7%:

The top losers in the Metals sector were Tata Steel down 7.8%, JSW Steel down 6.6%, Lloyds Metals down 6.3%, Jindal Stainless down 1.4% and Ispat Industries down 1.3%.

The top gainers were Monnet Ispat (up 6.3%), AdhunikMetaliks (up 5.4%), Sunflag Iron (up 4.6%), Bhuwalka Steel (up 2.2%) and TataSponge (up 1.6%).

Source : Indiainfoline

Crude Prices - What to Buy and Avoid

Crude prices are once again on an upward spiral leading to fears about the impact on the margins of companies in various sectors. Analysts tracking markets say any further increase could lead to inflation rising at a faster pace. As a consequence,stocks in sectors like fertiliser, textiles, pharma, automobile, tyre, paints and aviation could be affected if the surge continues.

However, the strong rupee will act as a countervailing force which may ensure that their cost of raw material does not spin out of control. But should crude go beyond $100 a barrel from the levels of $80/barrel, there could then be some real cause for concern, feel analysts.

“Crude oil prices have more than doubled from their 52-week low levels. If the price of crude oil continues to increase and if the government decides to pass on the additional cost to consumers, it is expected to lead to an increase in inflation at a much faster pace compared to the anticipated level of 6% by March 2010. In an otherwise scenario, if the price increase is not passed on and the government bears the hike in the price of crude oil, then the fiscal deficit situation is expected to worsen further from the budgeted 6.8%. If the fiscal deficit figure, which is closely monitored by investors, rises beyond an extent then it can negatively impact the broader markets,” says Vishal Jajoo, research analyst of FCH Centrum Wealth Manager.

Oil prices have tumbled from the historic highs of more than $147 per barrel in July 2008 to about $32 per barrel in December because of the global recession, but have since risen on hopes of recovery. While the prices have still not gone to dangerous levels, they are not very far from it, say analysts. “While so far the direct impact has been limited, if prices retain this momentum, it could adversely impact companies’ profitability. The market is in a wait-and-watch mode,” said an analyst with a domestic brokerage.
The worst hit would be companies that rely on petro products either as feedstock or for meeting their energy needs. The list includes companies in sectors as diverse as tyres, cement, fertilisers & chemicals, synthetic textile, among others. In the tyre industry, for instance, bulk of the feedstock is derived from crude oil and its downstream products. The previous rally in crude oil prices resulted in a sharp rise in industry’s raw material cost and adversely affected the company’s profitability. In the past 3-4 years, industry’s raw material cost as a percentage of net sales jumped 600-1000 basis points to over 70% currently. A similar trend was visible in synthetic textile, fertilisers & chemicals industry.

Some of the leading firms that will be affected in the tyre industry include Apollo Tyres, MRF, Ceat and JK Tyre, among others. Among fertiliser companies, Chambal Fertilisers, Zuari, RCF and Nagarjuna Fertilisers will take the maximum hit. In the textile sector, the impact would be felt by companies like Century Enka, Vardhman Textile, Garware Wall-ropes and RSWM, among others. With its fortunes directly linked to international prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF), stocks of Deccan Aviation, Jet Airways and Spice Jet could be another casualty of rising oil prices.

But some companies will benefit. Analysts maintain that investors should preferably invest in companies like ONGC, Reliance Industries and Cairn India, particularly if oil continues to explore higher levels. Some other sectors that would be positively impacted because of high crude prices are offshore services providers Great Offshore, Aban Offshore, Garware Offshore and ancillaries like Selan Exploration and Shiv Vani Oil. Shipping companies Varun Shipping, Shipping Corporation of India, GE Shipping and Essar Shipping, which carry crude, are also likely to benefit as demand will be higher.

source : et.com

Indian Stock Market Outlook 20-23 Oct 2009

Buoyed by positive global news flow, renewed inflow from foreign institutional investors, better-than-expected IIP numbers and revised GDP forecasts, benchmark indices closed near 17-month high during the week ended.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex gained 683 points to close at 17,326 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) logged 197 points finishing at 5,142.

Good leadership from large caps like State Bank of India and Reliance Industries Ltd kept the sentiment positive.

Market breadth was average but not too heartening. The stock market has essentially been on a tear since the major bottom of March, with repeated calls for a big 10 per cent to 15 per cent correction going unmet.

Nothing goes up or down forever. Liquidity levels are driving the markets higher, but at the end of second quarter results investors should take stock specific view and lock into companies that have greater visibility of earnings in 2010.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,880 and 17,640 for the Sensex and 4,960 and 5,280 for the Nifty.

Supports for the Sensex is at 17,120 and 16,860 and for the Nifty at 5,060 and 4,940.

Correction to 5,000-level may see the markets trade in a broad sideway zone for next couple of fortnights.

Expect resistance to the indices at 17,480 and 17,660 and 5,180 and 5,260.

Be bearish only below 17,100 or 5,060 on closing basis. Markets change continuously and so must traders and investors. What worked last year, last month, or even last week may very well not work today. Evaluate consistently and try to be flexible to change your methods.

SATTA Gupshup

* Karnataka Bank has extensive reach in South India with strong operating efficiency and comfortable provisioning coverage. Rise in credit-deposit ratio, decline in cost of funds and high credit growth trajectory are expected to boost margins significantly in next few quarters. The non-promoter holding structure makes the bank ‘excellent’ takeover target for potential new entrants into the banking sector. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs275 in medium term.

* UTV Software is being recommended strongly by a savvy fund manager. Walt Disney is reportedly contemplating to hike stake in the company. Recent makeover of business channel with Bloomberg tie-up and restructuring of movie business are showing rewa-rds. Buy at current levels for target price of Rs 450.

* Torrent Pharma is witnessing renewed buying interest. Strong focus on fast growing chronic lifestyle segment and improvement in the international business indicates that the company is on the right track for good revenue growth. Buy for a target price of Rs 500.

F&O

Mirroring the strong bullish undertone in cash market, robust trading volumes were seen in the derivative segment. A volatile start to Samvat 2066 indicates that journey in the new Samvat will not be easy. Sentiment indicators like open interest, implied volatility, put/call ratio and VIX indicate continuation of volatility, but “speed breakers” to current uptrend are not ruled out. Leading the rally in bank stocks was big daddy of the sector SBI. Stay invested and buy on declines bank counters for steady gains. Bashing of telecom stocks is overdone, feel industry watchers. Buy Bharti Airtel, RComm. and Idea for relief rally gains.
Reports of recruitment spree at mid-tier and niche tech companies and excellent results from TCS have triggered renewed buying in technology counters. Surprise gains indicated in Wipro, Polaris and Patni. True to predictions after good accumulation, fresh uptrend is seen in realty and sugar counters. Stay invested for further gains in Shree Renuka, Bajaj Hindustan and Balrampur Chini. DLF, HDIL and Unitech look good for further gains from current levels. Stay invested. Operators are eyeing “big lot size and low price” counters like Noida Toll Bridge, Ispat Industries, Hotel Leela, GTL Infra and fertiliser counters Chambal and Nagarjuna. Punters tip targets of Rs 54, Rs 29, Rs 55, Rs 48, Rs 66 and Rs 43 in near term. Use corrections to buy Aban Offshore, APIL, Cummins (I) and Biocon for short term targets of Rs 1,680, Rs 625, Rs 420 and Rs 300. Rumours of insiders close to RIL cornering Aban shares are gaining strength. Exercise good, prudent money management and risk management for steady returns.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

Diwali Cracker Scrips from India Infoline

India Infoline has identified 14 stocks, including BoB and 3i Infotech, for buying during muhurat trading tomorrow.

A report said: "It's been a cracker of a year with the stock market illuminating the lives of the investing community. The market has also seen some amazing display of firepower in terms of liquidity. The celebrations ought to continue though the action, in our opinion, will move to stocks beyond the main indices, which explains our theme – Sense over Sensex.

"Last Diwali, when the street was plagued with pessimism, we had recommended a portfolio of 15 large cap stocks. Needless to say, the performance of the portfolio has been stupendous. This year, one needs to dig deep as discount sales may be missing in the main index stocks. There are bargains to be hunted in the broader market with several noteworthy stocks to be picked up even at current levels. We bring you 14 such stocks to buy during muhurat trading."

The list includes

Stock Target Price
Ahluwalia Contracts India 214
Anant Raj Industries 178
Bank of Baroda 592
Canara Bank 446
Ceat 225
Consolidated Construction 397
Dhampur Sugar Mills 141
Gayatri Projects 445
Infotech Enterprises 306
KPIT Cummins Infosystems 107
Lakshmi Energy & Foods 152
Sanghvi Movers 228
Suzlon Energy 107
3i Infotech 115

Market Khabar

Outperforming all global markets, Indian markets closed near several months high in the holiday-shortened week. On the BSE, the Sensex gained 2.65 per cent to sail past the psychological 17,000-mark ending the week at 17,135 and the Nifty on the NSE rose 2.5 per cent to close above 5,000-mark at 5,083.

A strong liquidity situation, improving economic data and expectations over strong second quarter res-ults could improve earnings. However, savvy market players are concerned over the way many companies are raising funds either through QIP route or IPO.

Valuations are turning expensive; investors should reshuffle portfolios, separate wheat from the chaff, in terms of good and bad stocks. The road ahead is further zig-zag than the recent rally would imply.

Negative global cues over the weekend may cast their shadow over the markets during the early part of next week. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,740 and 17,460 for the Sensex and 4,900-5,200 for the Nifty.

Supports for the week are at 16,960 and 16,820 on the BSE and 5,020 and 4,900 on the NSE. Cut short term long positions, if indices trade below 16,960 or 5,000 levels.
Experts advice the investors to avoid large positions and trade lightly. Investors need to be wary of getting burned by unsubstantiated takeover chatter. Mergers are starting to make a comeback as the economy and stock market show signs of life. But there is a dark side to the pick up in deals. Takeover rumours with little to no basis in fact have also returned. The GSK-Dr Reddy “takeover” is just one such example of investors getting their hopes up only to have them dashed. Sniff at inside information; it is usually bunk.

SATTA GUPSHUP
* Pidilite Industries manufactures various types of adhesives, sealants and specialty chemicals. Its brands — Fevicol and Dr Fixit — are the market leaders in their segments. Buoyant end user industry and lower raw material prices due to fall in crude oil prices spell good times for the company. Buy for a target price of Rs 250.
* PTL Enterprises or erstwhile Premier Tyres Ltd is a shell company of the Apollo Tyres group. The company owns valuable real estate at Ernakulam and a 500-bed superspecialty hospital in Gurgaon. The value of its assets is reported to be higher than the company’s present market cap. Buy for surprising gains.
* Midcap pharma major Ipca Labs is on the radar of savvy fund managers. It has a strong presence in the semi-regulated markets like Africa and Russia. The growth of its domestic formulation business is outperforming the industry’s growth. Buy for a target price of Rs 1,200.
* Jindal Stainless is the only Indian composite stainless steel plant, which manufactures stainless steel slabs, blooms, HR and CR coils. Sources indicate that it has finalised the restructuring of its huge debt and also report improvement in sales realisations. Buy for a short-term target of Rs 140.
* Select counters like Alkali Metals, NHPC, Nelco, KLG Systel, Sunil Hitech and Henkel India are witnessing keen buying interest. Stay invested and
buy on decline for further gains.

F & O
Spurred by FII inflows, open interest in the derivative segment crossed Rs 90,000 crore. Nifty futures trading at a steep discount of 14 points to spot and the rise in Nifty PCR to 1.36 indicate a build up of short positions in the Nifty. Option activity indicates strong support for the Nifty at 4,900-5,000 level and strong resistance at 5,100-5,200 level.

Among the stock futures, accumulation of longs was seen in Aban Offshore, IDFC, HDIL, ICICI Bank, Wipro, Yes Bank, Rolta, BEL and Jindal Saw counters. A short build up seen in select counters like Hero Honda, Tata Steel, Idea, Grasim, Unitech, Divi Labs and Tata Power. Punters tip Aban Offshore, JP Associates, IDFC and PTC for a price target of Rs 1,800, Rs 265, Rs 168 and Rs 95.

Traders can sell Tata Steel, HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Divi Labs and Hindalco Industries for a price target of Rs 465, Rs 2,575, Rs 1,560, Rs 545, Rs 525 and Rs 112. Buy Shree Renuka and Bajaj Hind for a price target of Rs 220 and Rs 200. A jump likely in United Spirits, APIL and Chambal Fertilisers to Rs 955, Rs 588 and Rs 65.
Flavour of the week ended were banking and IT counters. Expectations of better second quarter numbers saw many counters touching 52-week highs. Use discretion to buy selectively on declines.

Weakness in global prices may trigger selling in metal counters. Short term players advised to book profits. Industry watchers say worst is over for realty. Use sharp declines to buy DLF, HDIL and IBRL. Stock specific activity indicated ahead of second quarter earnings season. Avoid uncertainty. Stay out when the trend is in doubt.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

BSE NSE Weekly review and forecast

The market faces marginal resistance to cross the 4850 levels, but much depends on the international market and mood; index may exhibit horizontal movement during the next week

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 3.1% to close at 4825.05 during the week ended 11^th September 2009. Although the market started the week on a strong positive note with a spike of 102.50 points during the 1^st day of the week, it continued to remain checked all throughout the remaining part of the week.

The industrial output data for the month of July 2009 that came out on Friday showed growth of 6.8% compared with 6.9% growth in the same month last year. The industrial output for the month of June 2009 revised higher to 8.2%. Besides the weather office said on Thursday rainfall was 21 % above average in the week to 9^th September 2009 continuing the upturn since mid-August but total seasonal rainfall was a fifth short of normal since the season began with the driest June in eight decades. In the derivative market the week started with aggressive call buying of 4900 to 5200 strikes with simultaneous put writing of 4600 to 4800 strikes, thus showing highly bullish signals. However after that the market remained checked and towards the end of the week it seemed that there is marginal resistance for the underlying above the current levels. Simultaneously there is support as well at lower levels as put writing below 4800 continued. The Nifty added open interest all throughout the week although there was marginal short covering during Friday. For the full week the OI in Nifty increased by 21.52 lakh shares. Thus the total OI in Nifty as on 11^th September stood at 2.99 crore shares.

The total volumes in the F&O segment remained impressive all throughout the week. The average volume for the full week was Rs 63246.90 crore. The volume on Friday 11^thSeptember 2009 was Rs 61648.13crore. The overall market OI increased by 4.04 crore shares and the total OI for the full F&O market stood at 169.38 crore shares as on 11^thSeptember 2009. The major portion of the OI addition was contributed by the stock futuresand stock options. (See table OI breakup).

On Friday the S&P Nifty after remaining extremely volatile finally closed 5.65 points higher at 4825.05. The day began on a positive front; however the market dipped post the IIP data announcement although towards the end some short covering pulled back the underlying to positive territory.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 11th September 2009
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	169.38	4.04
Index Future	3.33	-0.01
Stock Future	127.45	2.16
Index Options	10.76	0.43
Stock options	27.83	1.47
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

In the Nifty option front the week started with aggressive call buying of 4900 to 5200 level strikes, whereas there was aggressive put writing of 4600, 4700, and 4800 strikes. However towards the end of the week it seemed that the nifty at the current level faces marginal resistance due to put buying below 4800 strikes and call writing above 4800 strikes. The most active calls on Friday were 4800 and 4900 strikes. Both these strikes added 1.36 lakh shares and 3.8 lakh shares in OI and the total OI for these strikes increased to 33.37 lakh shares and 51.76 lakh shares. On the other hand the most active puts were 4600, 4700 and 4800 strikes. All these strikes added 4.01 lakh shares, 3.11 lakh shares and 3.36 lakh shares in OI. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (September series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4800	3336950
Nifty 4900	5175850
Nifty 5000	4351700
Nifty 5100	1852700
Put
Nifty 4500	5085300
Nifty 4600	6585600
Nifty 4700	4936650
Nifty 4800	2995950
Source: NSE

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.) (September contract)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
28-Aug-09	15555	18538	24397	1619	60109
31-Aug-09	16283	18763	22499	1871	59416
1-Sep-09	20521	21226	30664	2076	74486
2-Sep-09	16773	16858	28085	1771	63488
3-Sep-09	14801	15373	30955	1794	62923
4-Sep-09	16505	17368	34482	1907	70261
7-Sep-09	11330	18575	25472	2115	57491
8-Sep-09	14366	22170	28287	2754	67577
9-Sep-09	11235	18593	21729	2378	53935
10-Sep-09	16992	22022	34075	2494	75583
11-Sep-09	14584	17325	27587	2152	61648
Source: NSE

The index put call ratio fell to 1.24 on 11^th September 2009 as compared to 1.38 during the previous day, whereas the stock put call ratio increased to 0.41 as compared to 0.37 during the previous day. Thus the market wide put call ratio was 1.17 on 11^th September 2009.

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in September series stock futures as on 11th September 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
BOSCHLTD	6700	3400	103
SYNDIBANK	2215400	832200	60
YESBANK	2116400	503800	31
GVKPIL	18339750	4270250	30
VIJAYABANK	10039500	2242500	29
UCOBANK	5945000	1230000	26
ANDHRABANK	1214400	236900	24
PATNI	1003600	174200	21
RECLTD	2566200	442650	21
DENABANK	9266250	1543500	20
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in September series stock futures as on 11th September 2009
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
GTOFFSHORE	682000	-104000	-13
RNRL	36053232	-4366296	-11
JINDALSAW	694000	-80000	-10
AUROPHARMA	261100	-28700	-10
KSOILS	15717600	-1451400	-8
BPCL	1725900	-134750	-7
SIEMENS	830208	-64672	-7
JSWSTEEL	3120900	-233192	-7
IBREALEST	11290500	-725400	-6
CIPLA	2958750	-170000	-5
* No of shares Source: NSE

The nifty future closed at 17 points premium to the underlying. Thus although the market faces marginal resistance to cross the 4850 levels, all will depend upon the international market and mood. In the absence of any major trigger the index may exhibit horizontal movement during the next week.

Source : Capital Market