Showing posts with label Sectoral Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sectoral Analysis. Show all posts

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Indian Stock Markets Weekly Review 06-Nov-09

While the Monday blues were saved due to a local holiday, the indices came crashing down on Tuesday following extremely weak global cues. Bulls, however, managed to labor enough to stage a comeback on Thursday. The Finance Minister's remarks on disinvestment of PSUs, clarity on implementation of the direct tax codes and a rebound in global markets resulted in the Nifty closing at 4,796 up 1.8% and Sensex ending the week 1.6% higher at 16,158.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-week high of 16,283 and low of 15,330 while, NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 4,836 and low of 4,563.

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold worth Rs11.46bn during the week. On the other hand, the Domestic Institutions were net buyers to the tune of Rs9.28bn during the week.

The top gainers: The top gainers in Sensex were ICICI Bank (up 10%), Reliance Capital (up 7.8%), Tata Steel (up 6.9%), Maruti Suzuki (up 6.7%) and Ranbaxy Labs (up 5.9%).

The Top Losers: The top losers in Sensex were Tata Power (down 9.4%), Ambuja Cements (down 5%), Wipro (down 5.2%), ITC (down 4%) and Hindustan Unilever (down 3.7%).

The BSE IT Index (up 0.5%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Financial Tech (up 16%), Mphasis (up 8.3%), Oracle Financial (up 5.3%) and Mahindra Satyam (up 3.2%).

The top losers were Sasken Communication (down 5.2%), Wipro (down 4.2%), TCS (down 1.9%) and HCL Tech (down 1.7%).

Patni Computer surged over 10.8% during the week after reports stated that L&T Infotech is planning to acquire the company.

Wipro was down by 5% during the week. The company acquired the business of Yardley in Asia, West Asia, Australia and certain African markets from UK-based Lornamead Group for Rs2.1bn.

According to a report released during the week, “Robust earnings upgrades (5-13% for FY10/11 for top 4 vendors) and stronger signs of a recovery (Wipro guided for 4.5% QoQ revenue growth for 3QFY10 at top end) sum up the review for the quarter. EBITDA margins continued to improve (50-150bps QoQ) on tight hiring and volume growth. That said, we believe most players’ margins have peaked in 2QFY10. Going forward, wage hikes and rupee appreciation remain the key risks, in our view. The demand environment has not recovered fully (Lloyds and RBS are set for a further US$51bn bailout and CIT has filed for bankruptcy), but we believe business conditions are conducive to strong growth in FY11, as: 1) IT spending has been low for over a year now; 2) deal pipelines are increasing; and 3) project rampdowns from badly affected industries like technology and telecom have also largely stabilised. Wipro and TCS remain our top picks among large caps. Among mid-cap firms, we prefer Patni, Infotech and Hexaware”.

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the consumer durables space were Mirc Electronics (up 3.2%), Su-Raj Diamonds (up 2.4%) and Blue Star (up 1.4%).

The top losers were Videocon Industries (down 7.6%) and Samtel Color (down 2.6%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 3.3%): The top gainers in the Pharma sector were Torrent Pharma (up 21.4%), Zandu Pharma (up 10.5%), Wockhardt (up 10.2%) and Lupin (up 7.3%).

The top losers were Dishman Pharma (down 10.3%), Natco Pharma (down 6.5%), Glaxosmithkline (down 2.5%), Orchid Chem (down 1.7%) and Morepen Labs (down 0.7%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 4%): The top gainers in the banking space were Yes Bank (up 8.8%), OBC (up 7%), Allahabad Bank (up 6.7%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 6.6%).

The top losers were Federal Bank (down 6.8%) and Union Bank of India (down 1.7%).

ICICI Bank was the top gainer during the week. The stock surged 10%. IIFL in a report released during the week stated, “ICICI Bank’s 2QFY10 results show some positive sequential developments as CASA improved, operating expenses fell and NPLs too declined. However, these improvements are unlikely to result in a sustained re-rating of the stock. While CASA improved sequentially, NIM expansion of 10bps QoQ was below that witnessed at other banks. With loans down 14%YoY, we expect interest income to remain weak in the 2H. Provision charges will remain high in the foreseeable future so as to raise NPL coverage to the minimum required 70%. While ICICI is on the right path by shedding unprofitable assets and refocusing on building the deposit franchise, the medium term profit outlook remains impaired. We expect ROE to remain in single digits over the next 2 years. ICICI remains expensive on PE and PEG terms, while appearing cheap on P/Bx term. We maintain REDUCE”.

SBI ended flat during the week. A report released by IIFL during the week stated, “SBI’s 2QFY10 standalone net profit growth was relatively weak at 10%YoY while consolidated profits grew by 18%YoY. Associate banks’ profits grew by 46%YoY. NII was up 12%QoQ driven largely by 25bps QoQ NIM expansion. ROE of 15.7% and ROA of 0.95% for 1HFY10 are respectable, but relatively weak compared to the peer group. Tier-I CAR remains comfortable at 9.8% and capital raising is unlikely to be required in the near future. Long standing concerns on low NPL coverage and low ROE remain. The stock has out performed both the Sensex and Bankex over the past three months and now trades at 1.5x FY11ii consolidated P/B. We expect the stock to perform in line with the market in the near-term”.

The BSE Auto Index (up 3.3%): The top gainer in the auto space was Ashok Leyland. The stock rose over 16.5% during the week after the company reported a jump of 57% in its commercial vehicle sales at 5,333 units in October as compared to the same month in 2008.

Maruti Suzuki was up over 6.7% during the week after the company reported a 32.45% jump in total sales at 85,415 units in October compared to the same period last year.

Eicher Motors advanced 6% during the week after the company’s commercial vehicles sales rose 71% in October. It sold 2,024 trucks and buses in the month, compared with 1,183 units in the year-ago period.

M&M gained 4.8% after the company’s utility vehicle sales grow 32% in October.

Bajaj Auto gained 4.1% during the week after the company's motorcycle sales rose 52% in October 2009.

The top losers were Swaraj Mazda (down 2.3%) and Hindustan Motors (down 0.5%).

Hero Honda was down 1% during the week after the company reported a marginal increase in October sales at 354,156 units as against 352,449 units in the same month last year.

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 2.1%): The top gainers were GSPL (up 8.3%), MRPL (up 4.9%), Shiv-Vani Oil (up 2%) and HPCL (up 1.6%).

Cairn India advanced 2.5% during the week, a report released by IIFL during the weekstated, “Cairn India’s flagship Rajasthan block is well set to reach production of 175kbpd by CY2011. Pricing for Rajasthan crude—benchmarked to Bonny Light, with appropriate discounts—would benefit from narrow light-heavy spreads on OPEC production discipline. Cairn’s balance sheet is adequately funded to execute the Rajasthan project, with operating cash flows supporting exploration activities. While uncertainties remain on Rajasthan cess and offtake of peak crude volumes from Rajasthan, Cairn’s pipeline provides access to 75% of India’s crude refining capacity.
Cairn’s strong leverage to crude, along with strong operating cash, makes it attractive, in our view. Cairn’s current stock price is 6.8x its stable cash flow per share. We initiate with ADD rating and target price of Rs278/share”.

The top losers in the oil & gas space were Hindustan Oil (down 7.6%), Chennai Petroleum (down 5.5%), Jindal Drilling (down 2.9%), Reliance Industries (down 2.1%) and Essar Oil (down 1.4%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 1%): The top gainers in the capital goods space were BEL (up 15.2%), Usha Martin (up 14%), BEML (up 9.6%), Dredging Corp (up 9.2%) and Jyoti Structures (up 8%).

The top losers were Alstom Projects (down 5.6%), Aban Offshore (down 3.9%), ABB (down 2.1%), Gammon India (down 1.9%) and Siemens (down 1.6%).

The Cement Sector: The top losers in the cement space were India Cements (down 8.4%), Mangalam Cement (down 5.1%), Madras Cements (down 4.9%), Prism Cement (down 4.4%) and Dalmia Cement (down 4.1%),

The top gainers were JK Cements (up 9.9%), Binani Indus (up 5.2%), Shree Cement (up 4.6%), Grasim (up 1.8%) and Birla Corp (up 0.1%).

A report released by IIFL during the week stated, “Cement prices in south and west regions have been falling steeply over the past two weeks, as the increase in supply is outstripping that in demand. At present, cement is cheapest in Hyderabad, at Rs123–145 per 50kg bag—down 18% in the past two weeks and 45% from the peak price reached in April 2009—the sharpest price fall in the past 15 years. According to dealers, price cuts have become a daily occurrence in the southern markets. In Gujarat, price declines have accelerated as supplies originally intended for exports have been diverted to the domestic market, given dwindling demand from the Middle East. Prices in the north have dropped by 2-3% in the past two weeks as supplies to the central region have reduced”.

The Telecom Sector: The top gainers in the telecom space were Gemini Comm (up 25.3%), MTNL (up 2.7%) and Shyam Telecom (up 1.7%).

The top losers were Idea (down 9.2%), Tata Communication (down 6.9%), RCom (down 6.1%), WWIL (down 4.4%) and TTML (down 2%).

Bharti Airtel advanced 2.6% during the week. According to a reports released by IIFL during the week stated, “A revenue decline of 1% QoQ, strong cost management (30bp increase in EBITDA%), FX loss of Rs0.7bn; a reduction in tower capex guidance ($1bn to $0.7bn), Rs2.2bn tax write back and PAT drop of 7.8% QoQ to Rs23.2bn characterised 2QFY10. Management commented that they would not match prices, but Bharti has just released a 1p/s (on-net) and 1.2p/s (off net), following a recent Rs0.5/min on-net and Rs0.6/min off-net plan. These plans make no distinction between local and STD calls (per minute plan is for pre-paid with voucher of Rs77 for 1yr validity). We model Rs0.55/min RPM for FY10, 580bn mobile min in FY10 (little elasticity assumed) and trim EPS by 12%-18%. We re-iterate REDUCE rating with a TP of Rs312”.

The Realty Sector (up 4.4%): The top gainers in the real estate space were HDIL (up 9.2%), Unitech (up 7.6%), Parsvnath (up 7.4%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 6.7%) and Peninsula Land (up 4.3%).

The top losers were Sobha Developers (down 8.2%), Omaxe Ltd (down 4.2%), Anant Raj Indus (down 1.4%) and Ansal Properties (down 0.2%).

The Metals sector (up 4.1%): The top gainers in the metals were Tata Steel (up 6.9%), Bhushan Steel (up 6.8%), JSW Steel (up 6.3%), Sunflag Iron (up 4.3%) and Lloyds Metals (up 3.2%).

The top losers in Metal were Ispat Industries (down 18.9%), Adhunik Metaliks (down 15.9%), Tata Sponge Iron (down 14.5%), Bhushan Steel (down 13.8%), Sunflag Iron (down 11.9%),

SAIL fell 1% during the week. IIFL in its report released during the week stated, “SAIL’s 2QFY10 PAT at Rs16.6bn (down 17% YoY and up 25% QoQ) was ahead of our estimate (Rs15.7bn) but in line with consensus.

• The positive surprise came from write-back of employee cost provisions.

• SAIL’s employee cost is unsustainably low and we expect it to increase by ~50% from this quarter’s level.

• SAIL has the highest conversion cost among Indian companies, on account of its bloated employee base and inferior product mix.

• Support from cash balance cannot be taken for granted, as we expect SAIL to turn net-debt in FY11 once full payment of the increased wages as per Sixth Pay Commission has been made and capex has increased.

• At its current price, the stock is trading at PE of ~14x on FY11ii—at a significant premium to its historical trading band. We retain SELL”.

Source : Indiainfoline.com

Aggregated by

Equity Research team
Ravina Consulting
B-429 Mahaveer Tuscan
Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield
Mahadevapura Post
BANGALORE 560048

Call / SMS 9880080321
Follow - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Weekly Analysis - Sectoral Review19-23 Oct 09

The run ahead of fundamentals came to a halt with keyindices closing lower this week. Besides the expected profit taking after aseven-month rally, the RIL-RNRL court battle added to the weakness. Quarterlynumbers from India Inc. also failed to cheer sentiment on Dalal Street. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex closed the week down by 3% and NSENifty closed lower by 2.8%.

The BSE Sensex hit an intra-weekhigh of 17,457 and low of 16,721 while, the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of5,182 and low of 4,968.

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased Rs51.2bnduring the week. On the other hand, the Domestic Institutions were net sellers tothe tune of Rs15.7bn during the week.

The top gainers: The topgainers in the Sensex were TCS (up 10%), Tata Power (up 6.7%), DLF (up 4.9%),Hindalco (up 4.8%) and Wipro (up 2.4%).

The Top Losers: The toplosers in the Sensex were Grasim (down 10.3%), Tata Steel (down 7.8%), TataMotors (down 7.7%), L&T (down 7.2%) and Reliance Capital (down 6.9%).

The BSE IT Index up 3.6%:
The top gainer in the IT sector was TCS. The stock shot up over 10%during the week. According to report released by IIFL during the week, “TCSbeat our expectation with ~4% QoQ US$ revenue growth in 2QFY10—a number webelieve will be the best in this quarter among the top-3 vendors. Volumes grew~5% QoQ and EBITDA margin expanded by ~150bps, despite a hike in variablesalary payout (payout of 150%). The company’s products business is recoveringstrongly after a bad year—revenues are up 60% since 4QFY09. Stronger signs ofgrowth are also evident in its key vertical, BFSI (45% of revenues), astechnology integration deals ramp up. The appreciating rupee is a risk andpressures in the telecom, manufacturing and high-tech domains make a strongerrecovery unlikely. However, given stronger volume growth and margin expansion,we upgrade our FY10 and FY11 EPS estimates by 8% and reiterate ourrecommendation to switch from Infosys to TCS and Wipro.”

HCL Tech rose over 8% duringthe week. The company tied up with Microsoft to provide retail banking solutionto help banks in the Asia-Pacific.

Wipro was up 2.4% during theweek. The company entered into a 10-year IT outsourcing agreement with DelhiInternational Airport Ltd for providing IT infrastructure and services for IGIAirport here.

Mphasis (up 6%) and PatniComputer (up 4.6%) were among the other notable gainers.

The top losers were FinancialTech (down 5.7%), Mahindra Satyam (down 5.3%), Oracle Financial (down 4.1%) andSasken Communication (down 0.7%)


The BSE ConsumerIndex:
The top losers in the consumer durables space were Blue Star (down7.2%), Titan (down 3.9%), Videocon Industries (down 3.2%) and Su-Raj Diamonds(down 3.1%).

Whirlpool surged by over 10.2%during the week.


The BSE Healthcare Index down 1.4%:
The top losers were Panacea Biotec (down 7.3%),Divis Labs (down 5.4%), Ranbaxy (down 5.2%), Zandu Pharma (down 3.4%) and SuvenLife (down 3.3%).

The top gainers in the Pharma sectorwere Astrazeneca Pharma (up 18.2%), Strides Arcolab (up 9.2%), Dishman Pharma(up 6.3%) and Glaxosmithkline (up 3.7%).


The BSE Banking Index down 3.4%:
Thetop losers in were Bank of India (down 5.7%), Bank of Baroda (down 3.8%), ICICIBank (down 3.4%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 3.3%) and HDFC Bank (down 1.8%).

The top gainers in the banking spacewere Karnataka Bank (up 14.6%), Yes Bank (up 8.9%), Federal Bank (up 7.4%),Andhra Bank (up 7.1%) and Allahabad Bank (up 6.2%).


The BSE Auto Index down2.3%:
The top loser in the Auto space was Tata Motors. The stock fell 7.7%during the week. According to reports, the service tax department has issued ashow-cause notice to the company relating to a potential service tax liabilityof Rs3.25bn for five years between 2004-05 and 2008-09.

Despite spectacular quarterlynumbers, Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda were at the receiving end. Bajaj Auto slipped5.4% during the week. The company’s net profit in the second quarter of thisfiscal stood at Rs4.03bn against Rs1.85bn in the July-September 2008 period.Sales revenue for the company grew 15% in the period to Rs27.93bn againstRs24.2bn in the corresponding period.

Hero Honda fell 4.4% during theweek. According to a report released by IIFL during the week, “The company reportedPAT rose 95% YoY to Rs5.97bn—7% higher than our expectation. EBITDA margin expanded130bps QoQ to 18.3% (in 1QFY10, the company had spent Rs360m on advertisingduring Indian Premier League).

• But margin has likelypeaked—going forward, margins would be affected by rising commodity prices andincreasing competitive intensity in the two-wheeler space.

• The company produced 340,000vehicles during 2QFY10 at its Uttaranchal plant (tax incentives) and istargeting a production of 1.3m vehicles for FY10. Given the increasedproduction at Uttaranchal, the company’s tax rate fell 130bps QoQ to 22.3%.

• Management has revised itsguidance on FY10 tax rate from 24% to 22%. We raise our FY10 and FY11 EPSestimates by 8% and 6% as we revise our tax rate assumptions to 22% and 21%respectively. We maintain ADD with a revised target price of Rs1,850 (16xFY11ii).”

Among the other major loserswere M&M (down 3.4%) and Hindustan Motors (down 3.3%).

The top gainers were EicherMotors (up 2.5%), Swaraj Mazda (up 1.5%) and Ashok Leyland (up 0.2%).

Rico Auto Industries, facinglabour unrest since October 18, has reported a daily production loss of about25% at its Gurgaon plant, due to the unrest caused by a group of 16 employees.

The BSE Oil & Gas Index down 6.1%:
The top loser in oil & gas space was ONGC. Thestock was down by over 6.5% during the week. The Petroleum and Natural GasMinistry has suggested that the company explore the possibility of hiving offits Assam assetinto a wholly-owned subsidiary, stated reports.

Reliance Industries fell 5.7% during the week. TheSupreme Court said on the dispute between Reliance Industries and RNRL the twocould work out a “suitable arrangement” for the supply of gas if there is noprovision for arbitration as per the scheme of demerger between the two groups.

Shiv-Vani Oil (down 5.8%), MRPL(down 5.6%) and Jindal Drilling (down 4.7%) were among the other major losers.

The top gainers were GSPL (up5.3%), IOC (up 2.3%), Cairn India (up1.7%) and Gujarat NRE Coke (up 0.4%).


The BSE Capital Goods Index down 6%:
The top gainers in the capital goods sector wereKirloskar Brother (up 15.4%), Elgi Equipments (up 10%), Esab India (up5.7%), SKF India (up 3.7%) and Alfa Laval India (up2.8%).

The top losers were AstraMicrowave (down 8.3%) and Usha Martin (down 7.1%), LMW (down 5.9%).

L&T fell 7% during theweek. The company posted 26% rise in profit at Rs5.8bn in the second quarter,aided by a one-time gain from sale of its ready mix concrete (RMC) business andstake sale in a paper manufacturing joint venture.

BHEL was down 4.3% during the week. BHEL announced its Q2 net profitat Rs8.58bn registering a growth of 39% YoY as against Rs6.16bn in the sameperiod last year. While, net sales stood at Rs66.25bn as against Rs53.4bnposting a growth of 24% YoY.

The Cement Sector:
The toplosers in the cement space were Prism Cement (down 13.3%), Grasim (down 10.3%),JK Cements (down 7.2%) and Gujarat Sidhee (down 6.7%).

Ultratech Cement fell 8.5%during the week. A reports released by IIFL during the week stated that“UltraTech Cement’s (UCL) 2QFY10 result was largely in line with ourestimates—net sales up 10% YoY at Rs15.4bn; (against our expectation ofRs15.9bn); EBIDTA up 58% YoY at Rs4.7bn; and PAT up 53% YoY at Rs2.5bn (both inline with our estimates).

• Sales volume up only 5% YoY,despite sharp increase in capacities, as demand was sluggish in UCL’s keymarkets.

Blended realisation rose 6% YoYand 1% QoQ, but dropped 3% QoQ after factoring in freight expenses. We expectimpact of falling prices in UCL’s markets to reflect from 3QFY10.

• We largely retain ourearnings estimates (pre-merger) for FY10 and FY11. We will review our estimatespost announcement of merger ratio with Samruddhi Cement (SCL). We expect UCL tobenefit from the SCL merger, as it will make UCL the largest cement company in India with abalanced exposure to all regions (it currently has very high exposure to westand south markets). We maintain ADD on the stock.”

The top gainers were KakatiyaCement (up 1%) and Birla Corp (up 0.2%).

The Telecom Sector:
The toplosers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (down 7.7%), Idea Cellular(down 5.6%), WWIL (down 4.1%), Shyam Telecom (down 2.6%) and TTML (down 2.1%).

The top gainers in the Telecom spacewere Gemini Comm (up 31.1%), Bharti Airtel (up 1.8%) and RCom (up 0.3%).

The Realty Sector down3.5%:
The top losers in the real estate sector were Parsvnath (down 8%),Ansal Props (down 4.5%), Unitech (down 3.9%), Sobha Developers (down 3.2%) and Peninsula Land (down2.9%).

The top gainers in Real Estatewere Anant Raj Indus (up 6.7%), DLF (up 4.9%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 4.5%) andAkruti City (up0.5%).

The Metals sector down1.7%:
The top losers in the Metals sector were Tata Steel down 7.8%, JSW Steel down 6.6%, Lloyds Metals down 6.3%, Jindal Stainless down 1.4% and Ispat Industries down 1.3%.

The top gainers were Monnet Ispat (up 6.3%), AdhunikMetaliks (up 5.4%), Sunflag Iron (up 4.6%), Bhuwalka Steel (up 2.2%) and TataSponge (up 1.6%).

Source : Indiainfoline

Monday, June 29, 2009

Sectoral Analysis and Outlook for this week !

Weekly Sectoral review

BSE sensex gained 321 pnts during the week. Monday it lost 196 pts while it gained 419 pnts on Friday Outlook Bullilsh. Nifty gained 62 pts while it has jumped sharply on friday by 134 pts it had a bad Monday 22 June it tanked 78 pts, Thursday it lost 51 pts. The outlook ahead of Union Budget 2009-2010 is bullish and buy on dips could give better returns for investors.

Power index was up 2.37% and the outlook remains positive use dips to accumulate - GVK Power Torrent Power, Reliance for an upside of 25-30%

Realty index was up 3% on expectation of budget sops for home buyers. The raising of threshold limit of income tax relief expected 3 lakhs

On the back of dis-investment PSU index had a mixed week up by 1.84% look out to buy BEML and BHEL on dips for an upside of 15-20% in July

Oil Gas had a bad last week recovered backed by Reliance Industries. The outlook remains cautious on the back of international crude prices

After the sell off seen in the metal index recovered somewhat by 2.69% Tread with caution as the outlook is not very positive sell on rises

IT index ended smartly up 3.64% on back of good turn around expected from the US recovery. Watch out for guidance and invest in small lots

Healthcare index was down 1.49% on back of Sun pharma downfall. Accumulate mid cap stocks like dishman and divis for targets of 250 and 1500

FMCG index too had a insipid week and rose by mere 1% the delayed monsoon will be a cause for worry avoid investing in the short term

Consumer durable industry has posted a mere .35% rise and one can avoid this sector as it is likely to under perform the overall indices

Capital Goods index risen sharply 6% on the back of robust demand growth. Buy on dips both ABB and Siemen for target prices of 1000 and 750

Bankex recovered smartly during the week gaining 2.69% during the week. Buy on dips ICICI and UTI banks. Buy Yes bank, idbi target 150 125

Auto sector was biggest loser during the week - it lost 1.08% the strategy should be sell on rise both Mahindra 725 and Tata Motors at 370

Take advantage of dips which are expected next week and accumulate todays winners at lower levels. They will lead the next leg of rally

Trading for the July FnO started on a bullish note with sensex and nifty gaining 3% The outlook for the next week should be continued buying

Highlight of todays trading is that all the sectors except Healthcare all sectoral indices went up.Sun Pharma dragged HC index by losing 12%

ICICI bank surged by 8% during the day to close at high price of today at 754 Buy on dips around 700 for a target of 800

The biggest driver of todays market has been the banking sector which after a period of consolidation flared up by 4.37% outlook is positive

Bse Auto index was up 1.2% today with gainers Maruti, Bajaj auto Buy Tata Motors at 325 for a target of 365 for next week.

Outlook for next week

With initiative seized from bears Bulls will have strangle hold next - try to push the indices higher - target for Sensex 15000 Nifty 4500

Raghav
Chief Investment Officer

Ravina Consulting
303 Motherland Building
3rd Main 3rd Cross
Kamanahalli
BANGALORE 560084

Follow us – www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

intellinvestor@gmail.com
SMS / Call 0988.008.0321

Friday, March 13, 2009

Sectoral Analysis 13-03-09

Sensex surged to 8,757. The NSE Nifty climbed 3.8% .


Key Indian stock indices advanced in a truncated trading week, tracking strong gains across the globe. The lowest rate of inflation in six-and-a-half years (2.34%) also aided the recovery on Dalal Street. Finally, the BSE 30-share Sensex surged 5.2% to close at 8,757. The NSE Nifty climbed 3.8% to shut shop at 2,719, shrugging off negative IIP data for January at -0.5% and continuous selling by the FIIs.

The BSE benchmark Sensex hit an intra-week high of 8,793.21 and low of 8,110.3. While the NSE Nifty hit an intra-week high of 2,726 and low of 2,555.6.

The Foreign Institutional Investors sold stocks worth Rs5.98bn during the week. The Domestic Institutional Investors also offloaded stocks worth Rs1.86bn during the week.

The top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were HDFC (up 18.7%), Tata Motors (up 13%), TCS (up 10.1%), Hindalco (up 9.5%) and Wipro (up 9.2%).

The top losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Ranbaxy Labs (down 12.9%), Bharti Airtel (down 7.2%), NTPC (down 5.3%), ITC (down 4.8%) and Hindustan Unilever (down 4.8%).

The Metals sector (up 7.2%): The BSE Metals index was the top gainer among all the sectoral indices. The top gainers in the metal space were Sunflag Iron (up 10.1%), SAIL (up 8.1%), Tata Steel (up 6.6%), Jindal Steel (up 4%) and Adhunik Metaliks (up 3.3%).

The top losers were Tata Metaliks (down 5.9%), Bhuwalka Steel (down 5.4%), Ispat Industries (down 4.5%), Lloyds Metals (down 4.2%) and Monnet Ispat (down 2.6%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 6.8%): The top gainers in the auto were Tata Motors (up 13%), M&M (up 9.7%), Ashok Leyland (up 7.1%), Bajaj Auto (up 6.6%) and Maruti Suzuki (up 4.4%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 6.4%): The top gainers in the oil & gas space were Gujarat State Petronet (up 9.1%), Cairn India (up 7%), ONGC (up 6.4%) and Great Offshore (up 6.3%).

Reliance Industries advanced over 6% during the week. According to reports, the company sold four diesel cargoes of 65,000 tons each to Hess Corp. This was the companies’ first term contract with the U.S.-based refiner, with supplies beginning in April, stated reports.

The oil refinery stocks were under pressure during the week as crude surged higher. Among the top loser were HPCL (down 14.3%), BPCL (down 10.9%), IOC (down 9.4%), Shiv-Vani Oil (down 8.8%) and Gujarat NRE Coke (down 8.8%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 6.3%): The banking stocks were in momentum this week after Inflation fell to its lowest level in six-and-a-half years in the last week of February partly due to high base of last year. The annual rate of inflation stood at 2.43% for the week ended Feb. 28 compared to 3.03% in the previous week.

The top gainers in the banking space were ICICI Bank (up 14.7%), Axis Bank (up 11.8%), PNB (up 8.2%), Andhra Bank (up 7.8%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 7.5%).

The top losers were Bank of India (down 1.2%), Canara Bank (down 0.7%) and Oriental Bank of Commerce (down 0.2%)

The BSE IT Index (up 5.7%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Satyam Computer (up 20.1%), Patni (up 14.7%), Mphasis (up 10.6%), TCS (up 10.1%) and Financial Tech (up 10%).

The top losers were Sasken Communication (down 3.4%) and Oracle Financial (down 3.2%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 4.1%): The top gainers in the capital goods space were L&T (up 6%), Siemens India (up 3%), BHEL (up 2.9%), LMW (up 1.8%) and Jyoti Structures (up 1.7%).

The top losers were Aban Offshore (down 10.9%), Greaves Cotton (down 10.7%), BEML (down 8.3%), Kirloskar Brothers (down 7.4%) and APIL (down 6.6%).

Industrial production registered a negative growth rate for the second time in a row.
IIP stood at 280.4 in January compared to 281.9 in the same month last year, representing shrinkage of 0.5% from a year earlier.

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 0.8%): The top gainers in the Pharma sector were Zandu Pharma (up 10.1%), Astrazeneca (up 9.1%) and Sun Pharma (up 6.4%).

Dr Reddy's Labs rose nearly 6% during the week after the company won a U.S. court ruling that bolsters its bid to sell a copy of AstraZeneca Plc’s Prilosec heartburn drug without a prescription.

Strides Arcolab surged over 5% during the week.  The company announced that it terminated 'License and Supply Agreement' with KV Pharmaceutical Company, USA, due to the recent developments at KV Pharma which included recall of their products, regulatory actions and filing of a series of class actions by shareholders.

The top losers were Marksans Pharma (down 17.6%), Ranbaxy Labs (down 12.9%), Glenmark Pharma (down 12.5%), Emami Limited (down 7.3%) and Lupin (down 6.5%).

The Telecom Sector: The top gainers in the telecom space were Tata Communication (up 10.8%), Shyam Telecom (up 4.6%) and WWIL (up 0.9%).

RCom surged over 7% during the week after the company announced the roll-out of its CDMA wireless broadband service, Reliance Netconnect Broadband Plus.

The top losers were TTML (down 9.2%), Gemini Comm (down 7.8%), Idea Cellular (down 3.7%) and MTNL (down 3.6%).

Shares of Bharti Airtel declined over 7% during the week amid concerns that lower termination charges would slightly hurt its revenues.

The company also announced that Manoj Kumar Kohli the chief executive officerand Joint Managing Director of Bharti Airtel sold his entire stake in two transactions via open market.

Mr. Kohli sold 70,000 equity shares worth Rs41.1mn on March 9 and on March 6 he sold 53,000 shares valued at Rs31.3mn in the company. Kohli, who held 1.23 lakh shares, representing a 0.006% stake in Bharti, offloaded his entire holding via two open market transactions for Rs72.4mn.

The BSE Consumer Index: The top losers in the consumer durables space were Samtel Color (down 4%), Mirc Electronics (down 2.1%), Whirlpool (down 1.6%) and Su-Raj Diamonds (down 1.5%).

On the other hand, Videocon Industries gained 1.4% during the week.

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement space were Birla Corp (up 6.3%), Grasim (up 5.5%), Shree Cement (up 5.3%), ACC (up 4.2%) and Mangalam Cement (up 1%).