May 22, 2011:

Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying the stock of Ashok Leyland (Rs 51.1).

Following a turnaround from Rs 12.5 in December 2009, the stock was on a long-term uptrend until it peaked out around Rs 81 in November 2010. A downtrend that commenced from its November peak was arrested in the range between Rs 45 and Rs 47 during this February, after retracing 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the stock's previous up move.

Moreover, the stock has significant long-term support in Rs 45-47 range. Last week, the stock took support from this range for the second time and bounced up forming a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern on May 19 by gaining 4 per cent. Reinforcing the bullish momentum, the stock subsequently jumped 5 per cent breaching its 21-day moving average.

A positive divergence in the daily relative strength index and daily stochastic oscillator backs the stocks' trend reversal. We notice that there is an increase in volumes over the past two trading sessions supporting the up move.

The daily moving average converge divergence indicator has signalled a buy. Daily RSI is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering into neutral region from the bearish zone.

Though the down trendline is still in place, we take a contrarian stance on the stock considering the above mentioned bullish facts. We are bullish on the stock from a medium-term perspective.

We believe that Ashok Leyland has the potential of moving higher and reach our medium-term price target of Rs 60. However we don't rule out a minor pause around Rs 55.5. Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying.

The scrip has giving negative returns consistently over the last one year and the following data amplifies this :

Time Span Price Change %Change
Today 49.80 -0.40 -0.79
Week 51.85 -1.65 -3.18
Month 50.85 -0.65 -1.27
Three Months 55.25 -5.05 -9.14
Six Months 59.25 -9.05 -15.27
One Year 69.85 -19.65 -28.13

Investors are adivsed to stay away from this counter and utilize rallies to exit their positions. The scrip may sink to sub - 40 levels in 3-6 months owing to the strong head winds, high interest regime coupled with slackening demand.


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