Market Khabar 8 Feb 2010

Markets ended in red for the third week in a row in the weekend following global worries on fiscal deficits of euro zone countries, continuous rise in food inflation and tepid response to NTPC FPO.

On the BSE, the Sensex shed 442 points to end below 16,000-level at 15,916 and the Nifty on the NSE closed 115 points lower at 4,767.

As expected market breadth continued to remain weak and jittery investors were seen cutting positions.

Sources suggest an aggressive policy action from the government to control inflation. The worst is over on inflation front.

Watch out for expectations over the Union Budget to spot likely beneficiary industries. Sources say stimulus packages will not be trimmed to a large extent and only minor tinkering is on cards. Weekend rebound in US markets from lower levels may trigger a relief rally from current levels.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 15,550 and 16,420 for the Sensex and 4,540 and 4,960 for the Nifty.

Experts do not expect the indices to breach the 200-day moving averages at 15,530 and 4,650 levels easily and expect a mild recovery rally from current levels. Avoid aggressive shorts at current levels. Initiate fresh positions if indices sustain above 16,300 and 4,840 levels on closing basis.

You cannot tell how expensive a stock is. A stock’s value is depends on its earnings — a Rs 100 stock can be cheap if the firm’s earnings prospects are high, while a Rs 10 stock can be expensive if earnings potential is dim.

Futures & Options

High intra-day volatility is back and becoming a way of life for derivatives traders.

Overall open interest has again crossed Rs 1 lakh crore mark to settle at Rs 1,09,000 crore on Friday. As expected Nifty holds top position with 66 per cent share of the total. Contrarians tip buying of Nifty4,900 call option for unexpected returns in pre-budget rally.

Jittery market players were seen unwinding positions in bank, auto, realty and metal stocks. Punters suggest buying in SAIL, Tata Steel, Unitech, DLF and Nalco for relief rally gains. Among the stock futures looking good in an otherwise weak market are Asian Paints, Tata Power, Opto Circuits, Triveni, Essar Oil, Cummins, Mphasis and Petronet.

Buy oil marketing companies — IOC, BPCL and MRPL — for surprising returns. Side counters such as HCC, Punj Lloyd, JP Hydro and CESC are witnessing accumulation from savvy players.

Buy HCC for a target price of Rs 150 in the settlement. For the pre-budget trading, punters expect action in fertiliser, capital goods and power stocks. Buy Tata Power, Reliance Power and CESC at current levels.

Fallout from the luke warm response to the FPO of NTPC likely to be short lived. Buy strong PSU counters in the current weakness. Punters tip Engineers India, Power Finance and REC for short term.

Investors need to have realistic expectations. When expectations are too high, it results in overtrading underfinanced positions and very high levels of greed and fear, which makes objective decision-making impossible.

Stock scan

Vishnu Chemicals has posted good turnaround results. For the last nine months, the company has clocked net profit of Rs 4.18 crore in comparison to a loss of Rs 5.85 crore in the previous fiscal. Vishnu Chemicals is a world class manufacturer of chrome chemicals and animal feed ingredients and has recently set up a new state of the art manufacturing and R&D facility at Visakhapatnam. Sources indicate that the production of some peptides has also started and the company has reportedly tied up some CRAMS deals also. High promoter equity at 75 per cent reflects the confidence of the promoters. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 150.

Auto ancillary Subros continued its good performance on the back of reviving demand from its key clients — Maruti and Tata Motors. Volume and value led growth clearly reflect that cool times are back for the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 100.

AP Paper is reaping the benefits of its recently concluded expansion. Bettering the industry margins, the company has reported an excellent nine month performance. Stay invested in the counter for a target price of Rs 150.

Infoedge is a leading prov-ider of online recruitment (naukri.com), matrimonial (Jeevansaathi.com), real estate (99acres.com) and related services in India. The company is aggressively expanding into education, professional networking and other related segments. Buy the company’s stock at the current levels for a target price of Rs 1,300 in the next couple of months.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : deccan.com

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BSE NSE Weekly Review 01 Feb 2010

Huge resistance at 5000 level for the nifty

Outlook currently remains down ward bias, but market craves for positive cues in the domestic / global front, which can help it move northwards

The week started the week with extreme negative bias as the 3^rd quarter result season closed besides negative macro trends in the global economy. During the week ended 29^th January 2010, the S&P CNX Nifty corrected 153.95 points to close at 4882.05. In the future & option segment it was the expiry week and the rollover was smooth with short positions being created both at the nifty and the stock futures segment. The nifty February series added 2.26 crore shares in open interest (OI) during the week under review. Some of the stock futuresalso added OI, most of them short positions. For e.g. Reliance February futures added 83.38 lakh shares in OI while Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 1.18 crore shares and 80.15 lakh shares in OI during the week ended 29^th January 2010.

The nifty future continued to trade at a discount all throughout the week.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 29th January 2010
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	169.07	9.85
Index Future	3.37	0.22
Stock Future	142.55	4.80
Index Options	9.19	0.86
Stock options	13.97	3.98
* No of shares in crores ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 169.070 crore shares, thus rising by 9.85 crore shares as compared to the previous day. Major activity was witnessed in the stock futures & options segment. (See table OI breakup).

Most active Nifty options (February 2010 series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 4800	2000850
Nifty 5000	3799350
Nifty 5100	2768500
Nifty 5200	2933950
Put
Nifty 4500	2089750
Nifty 4600	3031050
Nifty 4700	3470900
Nifty 4800	4877250
Source: NSE

Besides all throughout the week the trend in the nifty option front was not positive as significant call writing was witnessed at 4700 to 5300 strikes simultaneously puts witnessed addition of OI with buying of 4700 to 4900 strikes. Now these indicate strong resistance at 5000 levels for the underlying.

The most active options in the February series were the 4700 to 5000 strikes. The call option on the above mentioned strikes witnessed aggressive writing, while the puts witnessed addition of OI due to fresh buying. All throughout the week the 5000 strike call witnessed 29.96-lakh-share addition in OI while the same strike put witnessed 4.51 lakh additions in OI. Put OI addition was more profound at 4700, 4800 and 4900 strikes while for the calls it was at 4900 and 5000 strike. (See most active Nifty options table).

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
INDIANB	1282600	389400	44
SUNTV	151000	38000	34
IVRCLINFRA	3612000	908000	34
DRREDDY	810400	164800	26
PATNI	653900	122200	23
IBREALEST	12675000	2147600	20
BANKBARODA	2002700	320600	19
COLPAL	275550	43450	19
OPTOCIRCUI	1583040	246840	18
LUPIN	519750	80500	18
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010

Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
PIRHEALTH	757500	-243000	-24
DABUR	561600	-132300	-19
ASIANPAINT	21200	-3600	-15
FEDERALBNK	476560	-70633	-13
CROMPGREAV	409000	-60000	-13
MPHASIS	2842400	-182400	-6
MRPL	4899450	-267000	-5
INDHOTEL	4268952	-208890	-5
NAGARFERT	17477250	-740250	-4
HDFCBANK	1539800	-61200	-4
* No of shares Source: NSE

The market may seem oversold at this level although any upward trigger will depend onthe global market due to lack of domestic trigger. 5000 levels for the nifty will remain a key resistance. The outlook currently remains down ward bias, however any positive indicators for the market domestically or internationally may witness significant upward correction.

Source : Capitalmarket.com

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BSE NSE Outlook for 25 Jan 2010

Spooked by disappointing corporate earnings and fall in US markets, markets posted their steepest weekly fall since October 2009. On the BSE, the Sensex dropped 695 points to end the week at 16,860 and the Nifty on the NSE shed 216 points to close at 5,036. Volumes in both cash and derivatives segments hit record levels during the week reflecting the ‘run’ to cut positions. Market breadth turned extremely weak with sentiment turning negative on the reports of aggressive selling from FIIs. Market players attribute weak support from domestic financial institutions to their plans to subscribe to the forthcoming PSU IPOs. With earnings season coming to close in next week, the markets will focus on the forthcoming Union Budget. The overall performance of Indian companies on the third quarter earnings has been better-than-expected and re-rating of earnings is overdue, analysts feel. Global markets are worried about President Barack Obama’s bank plan and China’s lending curbs. Markets are likely to be highly volatile next week on the account of F&O settlement, RBI credit policy and outcome of US Fed meet. Protect profits with trailing stops. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 16,500-17,280 for the Sensex and 4,830-5,180 for the Nifty. Friday’s lows 16,608 and 4,955 are key supports for the indices, a breach of which can take them to 16,280 and 4,830 points. Futures & Options With markets moving out of their recent trading range, robust volumes were seen in the derivatives segment. Overall open interest increased by 12 per cent to over Rs 1,25,000 crore. Option activity-call writing at 5,000-level indicates that for settlement closing Nifty may not be able to cross 5,100-level unless something dramatic happens. Initiate fresh positions only if Nifty futures close above 5,070. Open interest in stock futures shot up by eight per cent reflecting bull-run in select stocks. Among the stock futures that witnessed short build-up are ONGC, Unitech, L&T, Tata Steel, HDFC, Punj, IVRCL, PNB and GAIL. Ahead of RBI policy meet, realty stocks turned weak on persistent selling. Avoid fresh shorts at current levels. Start accumulation for medium term. Spooked by L&T’s performance, capital goods counters fell. But the present correction is likely to be short lived, say industry insiders. The performance of Punj Lloyd indicates that it is focusing on bottom line. Buy for unexpected sharp gains. Metal counters are likely to swing to the tunes of dollar movement Spurt in turnovers at the bourses spell good times for broking houses. Buy India Infoline at current levels for target price of Rs 160 in coming weeks. Mphasis and HCL Tech look good for surprising gains. Buy Mphasis ahead of results for sharp returns. Check out on roll over positions to spot winners for Budget series. Buy during weakness. Buy only after reactions confirming higher support. Stock Scan JSW Energy will commission additional capacity of nearly 2,145 MW by December 2010. Merchant power sales now constitute 73 per cent. It has PPA for 55 per cent of the projects under implementation and stands to capitalise on higher merchant tariffs. Third quarter results reflect good times, buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 200 in next few months. Adani Power is setting up power generation projects with an aggregate capacity of 6,600 MW. The company’s Mundra Power Project is scheduled to be operational by February 2010. Auto boom has benefited auto component manufacturers. Rico Auto is a leading player in the ferrous and aluminum castings space. It has presence in engine, transmission, braking and suspension parts. It is a leading supplier to companies like Hero Honda, Maruti and others. It has expanded its product portfolio with its recent ventures with foreign majors. Buy for a target price of Rs 40 in medium term. Autoline Industries has embarked on the inorganic growth path that could increase revenues by 30 per cent in the next two years. The company has strong presence in press metals and also makes components like brakes, clutches and pedals. It is a leading supplier to Tata Motors and other auto majors. RJ holds 10 per cent equity in the company. Buy at current levels for long term target of Rs 250. Motherson Sumi Systems is the largest wiring harness manufacturer and has recently acquired UK-based Visiocorp to gain leadership in rear view mirror segment. Gaining prestigious clients like BMW, GM, Ford, the company’s acquisition of Visiocorp is a likely game changer for the company. Buy on declines for a target price of Rs 200. C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns. Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Weekly Review 22 Jan 2010

Derivatives: Huge volatility expected with downward bias

Overall indications are negative on weak global markets, and we expect volatility with huge downward bias as we enter the expiry week; possible announcements from the government before the budget on the fiscal stimulus withdrawal too can impact marke

The week ended 22^nd January 2010 was extremely disappointing for the global market as there were concerns or signals from the Chinese authority that they would start withdrawing the stimulus provided earlier in order to rein in the visible overheating. Thus the market around the world corrected on fears that the Chinese demand would slow as Beijing taps the brakes on its roaring growth to stave off inflation and keep the economy from overheating. China had curbed lending by banks after raising banks reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points earlier. The Indian market also corrected and some of the disappointments from key corporate earnings exasperated the bearish sentiment. US President Barack Obama's proposed new restrictions on banks, which would prevent banks or financial institutions that own banks from investing in, owning or sponsoring a hedge fund or private equity fund continued to keep the sentiment bearish. The benchmark S&P CNX Nifty corrected 58.15 points to close at 5036 on Friday 22^nd January 2010.

For the full week the nifty corrected 216.20 points and the nifty future closed at discount all throughout the week thus emitting negative undertone. The nifty future discount widened to 16.35 points on Friday. Longs in the January series were seen getting covered; while fresh shorts in February series was seen created. The nifty January series shed 2.80 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.50 crore shares. The February series added 25.77 lakh shares in OI on Friday to take the total OI to 72.75 lakh shares. The volumes increased considerably to wards the end of the week and on Friday the volumes in the F&O segment increased to Rs 1.32 lakh crore. Some of the major stock future counter also witnessed similar trends with rollover of the current series and fresh shorts being created in the February series. The January series stock future shed 11.58 crore shares in OI, while the February series added 11.65 crore shares on Friday. Fresh short being created both at the Nifty and the stock future front is a major negative indicator.

Besides, the trend in the nifty option front was not positive either with calls being written from 4900 to 5200 strikes. The overall trend looks absolutely negative. Now that most of the major companies have already declared their results, the trigger till the budget would be the trend in the global markets.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date	Index Futures	Stock Futures	Index Options	Stock Options	Total
4-Jan-10	7411	15019	18075	2054	42559
5-Jan-10	10499	22359	23829	2913	59599
6-Jan-10	9636	21199	19377	2490	52702
7-Jan-10	10029	20382	20455	2546	53412
8-Jan-10	8568	19503	17843	2567	48482
11-Jan-10	8032	17918	17631	2435	46016
12-Jan-10	13898	21359	30853	3225	69334
13-Jan-10	13654	21718	32394	3117	70882
14-Jan-10	9220	19698	24641	2729	56287
15-Jan-10	7556	18912	19830	2581	48880
18-Jan-10	11100	19235	27427	2463	60224
19-Jan-10	11825	19770	29293	2554	63442
20-Jan-10	11664	20774	30552	2575	65566
21-Jan-10	23846	24795	59416	3060	111117
22-Jan-10	27790	28506	72774	3323	132392
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 222.10 crore shares, thus rising by 1.42 crore shares as compared to the previous day. Additions as compared to the previous week was 17.17 crore shares. Major activity was witnessed in the index and stock options segment. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 22nd January 2010
	Open Interest (OI)*	Change**
Market wide	222.10	1.42
Index Future	3.56	0.23
Stock Future	168.75	0.10
Index Options	12.66	0.50
Stock options	37.13	0.59
* No of shares in crore ** Change is vis-à-vis previous day Source: NSE

The most active options in the January series were the 4900 to 5200 strikes. The call option on the above mentioned strikes witnessed aggressive writing, while the puts at these strikes were wound up. The OI in 5000, 5100 and 5200 call increased by 28.53 lakh shares, 7.83 lakh shares and 6.23 lakh shares respectively while puts of these strikes shed OI. Thus as we enter the expiry week 5000 levels for the nifty would be the key level below which the market looks extremely bearish. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (January 2010 series)
	OI
Call
Nifty 5000	4048250
Nifty 5100	4121200
Nifty 5200	6371250
Nifty 5300	8561250
Put
Nifty 5000	5816450
Nifty 5100	3416100
Nifty 5200	2548400
Nifty 5300	1524250
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in January series stock futures on 22nd January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
PUNJLLOYD	13890000	2203500	19
HCLTECH	1799200	260000	17
GAIL	2561625	309375	14
SUNTV	232000	28000	14
GRASIM	489632	30624	7
ONGC	1858275	112500	6
HDFCBANK	1778600	100800	6
BHEL	1415400	54900	4
IVRCLINFRA	2710000	74000	3
BANKINDIA	1536150	40850	3
* No of shares Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in January series stock futures on 22nd January 2010
Scrip Name	OI*	Change*	% Change
PETRONET	4862000	-2428800	-33
ULTRACEMCO	444400	-201200	-31
BHARATFORG	2698000	-1108000	-29
DRREDDY	401600	-148400	-27
IDEA	27054000	-9984600	-27
SINTEX	1374800	-358400	-21
BAJAJ-AUTO	232000	-58600	-20
KOTAKBANK	1486650	-371800	-20
WIPRO	2031600	-501000	-20
MCDOWELL-N	772250	-180000	-19
* No of shares Source: NSE

5000 at the nifty level could act as a psychological support. Overall the sentiment looks bearish as evident from such shorts being created both at the nifty and the stock futures. In the absence of any major domestic triggers the global markets will remain the key trigger. There could be some announcements from the government before the budget on the fiscal stimulus withdrawal. Thus the overall indications are negative. Expect volatility with huge downward bias as we enter the expiry week.

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