TA - Infosys 27-04-09

Infosys

The strong surge witnessed on this counter on Thursday made it close the week with 4 per cent gain.

Infosys has been repeatedly testing the resistance at Rs 1,450 over the last three weeks.

As explained in our last column, the stock has key resistance at Rs 1,450. Downward reversal from here will make it decline to Rs 1,000 whereas a rally beyond this level will give the stock next medium term target of Rs 1,587.

Fresh purchases from a trading perspective are therefore recommended only on a strong move above Rs 1,450. Subsequent short-term target is Rs 1,527.

Supports for the short term are at Rs 1,380 and Rs 1,350. Medium term trend will turn negative only on a close below Rs 1,300.

— Lokeshwarri SK

businessline 26-04-09

The IT pack has been broadly outperforming the markets and looks ripe for a correction  Infosys has been gaining ever since the results have been announced.  Expect a correction soon and one can enter the stock at Rs.1250-1275 levels for a target price of Rs.1600 for a holding period of 6 months.

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

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aruti Suzuki

MUL declined sharply in the earlier part of the week but it reversed from our medium term support of Rs 740 to close the week on a flat note. Short-term trend in the stock is down.

Immediate resistance for the stock is at Rs 826. Inability to move above this level can cause the correction to prolong and make the stock decline to Rs 735 or Rs 685. A move above Rs 826 will make the short-term trend positive paving the way for a rally to Rs 873.

The medium term trend in the stock is up but it has already retraced half the losses made in the previous down-move.

A medium term reversal is possible from the recent peak at Rs 873.

Move above this level will give the next target at Rs 950.

— Lokeshwarri SK

businessline 26-04-09

Maruti has jumped more recently and is now in a down turn.  Buy on dips and the range should be 725-750 for a target price of 1000 and holding period should be a year.  Aggressive traders can short this stock with strict stop loss placed at Rs.830 for a target of 760 for the week

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

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TA - ONGC 27-04-09

ONGC

ONGC too moved in a very narrow band between Rs 830 and Rs 890 and ended the week with a mild loss. The short-term trend in the stock is down since the peak at Rs 922. Resistances for the week ahead would be at Rs 890 and Rs 922. Failure to move above the first resistance would result in a decline to Rs 816 or Rs 790 in the near term. 200-day moving average present at Rs 816 will be a key support from a medium term perspective. Weekly close below this level would herald a decline to Rs 740 over the medium term. This stock has retraced 38.2 per cent of the down-move recorded from the November 2007 peak. Failure to move above Rs 920 will mean that the stock can move in a wide band between Rs 600 and Rs 900 for the rest of this year.

source : businessline 27-04-09

ONGC has climbing up from 600 levels and the rise in the last month has been steep.  The ideal range to buy would be Rs.725-750 for a target of Rs.1000 in 6 months time frame.

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting -Bangalore India

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TA - Tata Steel 27-04-09

Tata Steel

Tata Steel too underwent a mild correction in the beginning of the week but it recovered thereafter to end on a flat note.

Momentum indicators in the daily charts are indicating weakness. Short-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 276.

A downward reversal from this level can pull the stock lower to Rs 234 or Rs 212.

Move above Rs 276 will take the stock higher to Rs 297 and then to Rs 341 where the 200-day moving average is poised.

Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 232.

The medium term trend in the stock is up but a sideways move between Rs 240 and Rs 300 is possible for a few more sessions before it breaks out higher to our medium term target of Rs 335 and Rs 360.

— Lokeshwarri SK

businessline 27-04-09

Tisco has jumped quite a bit during the last month and is now ripe for correction.  Adopt a buy on dips strategy and try to acquire and hold at Rs.225-240 levels for a target price of Rs.400 in a years time.

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

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Technical Analysis - SBI 27 April 09

SBI declined sharply from the resistance at Rs 1,350 indicated last week to an intra-week trough at Rs 1,202.

But the strong recovery from this level implies that the medium term trend in the stock continues to be up. Though the stock can move between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,350 for a few more sessions, there can be an upward break-out that takes it higher to Rs 1,433 or Rs 1,577.

Investors however need to tread cautiously till the stock closes above Rs 1,350.

The medium-term view for SBI will stay positive as long as it trades above Rs 1,100.

Repeated attempts to cross above Rs 1,600 between July and September 2008 makes this level a possible ceiling for this calendar.

— Lokeshwarri SK

businessline 26-04-09

TA - NDTV

NDTV (Rs 107): In our review of NDTV in November 2008, we had expected the slide to halt around the June 2004 trough at Rs 74. We had also indicated that the stock would face resistance at Rs 145 if it rallies higher.  NDTV reversed after recording a peak at Rs 140 in January and once again declined to the support band between Rs 70 and Rs 80.

Our medium-term view has not altered and we expect the stock to continue trading in the band between Rs 70 and Rs 140 over the ensuing months.

Investors with a medium-term perspective can sell it close to the upper boundary of this trading range. Targets above Rs 140 are Rs 184 and Rs 220.  Short-term resistance for the stock would be at Rs 114. This level needs to be crossed to take the stock towards the previous peak at Rs 140.

Source : Businessline 19-04-09

Our Recommendation :
Our Research Team Views :

Day High Low Rs.116-105
Monthly High Low Rs.80-126
6M H/L Rs. 126-70

This share has risen sharply more than 80% in the last 6 months. The following are the ideal ranges for buying and selling :

Buying Range : Rs.85-90
Selling Range : Rs. 115-125

Wait for the price to the buying range on correction in the stock markets.

Holding period : 12 months
Returns expected : 100% plus

For best investment ideas get in toch with us we give - One week, One Month, One Quarter, 6 M / 12 M picks
Get in touch with us for Portfolio Advisory Services.

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -
Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting
Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com
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TA - GAIL

GAIL (Rs 254.9): The long-term trend in GAIL continues to be up since the stock is still poised above its long-term trend-line. Moreover, it has retraced only half of the gains it recorded between 2000 and 2008. The market decline of 2008 halted around Rs 200 and after moving in a range between Rs 200 and Rs 220 between November 2008 and March 2009, the stock is currently in a medium-term up-trend.

This up-trend will face resistance in the band between Rs 290 and Rs 300. A reversal from this zone will take the stock lower to Rs 210. Long-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 200.

Conversely a rally past Rs 300 would imply that the stock can progress towards the previous peak at Rs 370.

Source : Businessline 19-04-09

Our Recommendation :

Our Research Team Views :

Day High Low Rs.263-249

Monthly High Low Rs.220-285

6M H/L Rs. 185-285

This share has risen sharply more than 50% in the last 6 months. The following

are the ideal ranges for buying and selling :

Buying Range : Rs.200-210

Selling Range : Rs. 270-280

Wait for the price to the buying range on correction in the stock markets.

Holding period : 12 months

Returns expected : 100% plus

For best investment ideas get in toch with us we give - One week, One Month, One

Quarter, 6 M / 12 M picks

Get in touch with us for Portfolio Advisory Services.

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting - Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com

Follow - www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

Technical Analysis - Reliance Ind

Reliance

RIL rallied slightly above our medium-term target of Rs 1825 but it turned hesitant at those levels.

The shooting star pattern in the weekly candlestick chart too denotes that the stock is experiencing selling pressure in the band between Rs 1800 and Rs 1850. Since this is 38.2 per cent retracement of the downtrend from the January 2008 peak, the current rally can halt here. Medium-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 1500.

Immediate support will be provided by the 200-day moving average positioned at Rs 1600. Short-term investors can book some profits at current levels. Short-term resistances are Rs 1844 and Rs 1920.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 19-04-09

Technical Analysis - Infosys

Infosys

It was a volatile week for Infosys as the stock plunged to Rs 1300 following earnings announcement and then rebounded to close the week with less than 3 per cent loss. As we have explained earlier, there is a strong medium-term resistance between Rs 1400 and Rs 1450 since the 200-day moving average is poised here and it is also the upper boundary of our medium-term trading range. A reversal from here can pull Infosys lower towards Rs 1100 over the medium term.

The stock can continue to face resistance at Rs 1450 over the near-term. If it reverses lower from current levels, a decline to Rs 1300 and Rs 1256 would be on the cards. Target on a break above Rs 1450 is Rs 1492.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 19-04-09

Technical Analysis - Maruti

Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki continued its upward march and achieved our first medium-term target of Rs 850 last week. Though a mild reaction was witnessed on Friday, the short-term trend in the stock continues to be up.

Short-term supports for the stock are Rs 810 and Rs 770. Short-term traders can hold their long positions until the stock trades above the first support. Medium-term investors can hold with a deeper stop at Rs 740.

Next medium-term target for Maruti Suzuki is Rs 950 that is 61.8 per cent retracement of the long-term down trend from the October 2007 peak. A close above this level would imply that the stock can head towards its life-time high peak once again.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 19-04-09

Technical Analysis - SBI

SBI

SBI shattered the resistance in the band between Rs 1200 and Rs 1220 and almost achieved our break-out target of Rs 1368. It was one of the stronger performers among the pivotals, with 15 per cent weekly gain. Short-term support for the stock is at Rs 1250 and Rs 1180. Short-term traders can hold the stock as long as it holds above the first support. But it faces strong resistance from the band between Rs 1350 and Rs 1370.

The medium-term view for SBI has however turned positive after last week’s move. If this is a counter-trend rally correcting the down-move from January 2008 peak, the first target is Rs 1356 and the next target is Rs 1476. Fresh longs are advised only on a strong move above Rs 1350.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 19-04-09

Technical Analysis - ONGC

ONGC

ONGC moved in line with our expectation, reversing downward from the resistance at Rs 920. The zone around Rs 920 is a key medium-term resistance and a sharp reversal from here can result in the stock moving in a range between Rs 600 and Rs 900 for a few more months. Therefore investors should wait for a weekly close above Rs 920 or for decline below Rs 800 to buy this stock. The 50 and 200-day moving averages will provide support in declines.

Short term trend in ONGC is down and immediate supports for the stock are Rs 835 and Rs 816. Immediate resistances are Rs 894 and Rs 922. Traders can initiate fresh short positions on a failure to move above the first resistance. – Lokeshwarri S.K.

— Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline.com

Technical Analysis - Aurobindo Pharma

Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 194): In our previous review of Aurobindo Pharma we had pointed out that the stock was attempting to reverse from the long-term support zone between Rs 100 and Rs 140, within which it moved in the period between November 2001 and May 2003. A double bottom was formed in the daily charts around Rs 100 in November and December 2008 and the stock has almost doubled from these levels. 

It will however face resistance at Rs 200 and Rs 260 over the next three months and a reversal from either of these levels will result in a sideways move between Rs 100 and Rs 250 for the rest of the year.

Investors with a long-term perspective can hold as long as the stock holds above Rs 100. Though there will be stiff resistance around Rs 260, a rally towards Rs 380 is possible over the next two years.

Source : businessline 12-04-09

Technical Analysis - IVRCL Infra

IVRCL Infra (Rs 145.5): 

IVRCL breached the key support at Rs 226 in October 2008 and then spiralled lower to bottom at Rs 56 in October 2008. The sharp rebound from this level and the formation of a higher bottom at Rs 82 in January 2009 augurs well for the stock. A long-term bottom could have been formed at last October’s lows. Long-term investors should therefore hold the stock with a stop at Rs 80.The stock can rise to Rs 190 over the next 12 months where the 200-day moving average is positioned. Investors with a medium-term perspective can divest part of their holdings on a failure to penetrate this level. Move beyond Rs 190 will take the stock to Rs 250.

Technical Analysis - Rolta

Rolta (Rs 72.1): Rolta India went in to a tailspin in March this year that ended at the trough of Rs 42. There has since been a strong 70 per cent gain from this trough.

The zone between Rs 35 and Rs 45 is also a strong long-term support zone for this stock and a sustainable trough could have been formed at Rs 42.

That said, the run-up from this trough has been very sharp and swift and a correction can materialise around Rs 71 or Rs 78 that drags it lower to Rs 55 or Rs 60 again.

Investors should wait for declines to buy the stock with a stop at Rs 50. Else wait for a weekly close above Rs 80 to buy the stock. Subsequent targets would be Rs 100 and Rs 150.

Technical Analysis - IFCI

IFCI (Rs 22.6): IFCI recorded a low of Rs 15.4 on October 27, 2008. This level was tested twice subsequently, in December 2008 and March 2009 but the stock held above Rs 15 on both the occasions. The current up-move faces short-term resistance at current levels. If this level is crossed, the next target would be Rs 26.5 and Rs 30. Reversal below Rs 30 can result in the stock vacillating in the band between Rs 15 and Rs 30 for a few more months.

The medium-term view will turn positive only on a weekly close above Rs 30. Break-out above this resistance will take IFCI to the band between Rs 37 and Rs 40.

Short-term investors can wait for a decline to Rs 21 or Rs 19 before buying the stock. Else buy on a strong move above Rs 24.

Source : businessline 12-04-09

Technical Analysis - Bank of India

Bank of India (Rs 241.3): This stock too has been in the throes of a structural bear market since the beginning of 2008. But it has twice bounced from the support at Rs 200 in 2008. Bank of India recently made a trough at Rs 179 and a short-term up-trend is currently in progress. The area between Rs 170 and Rs 200 is a key long-term support for the stock and long-term investors can hold on as long as it trades above Rs 170.

Though a race to the bull-market peak at Rs 465 would not be possible over the next two years, the stock can rally to Rs 290 or Rs 360 in that period. Key short-term resistance for this stock is at Rs 260.

Technical Analysis - Madhucon Projects

Madhucon Projects (Rs 72): This stock tested the support at Rs 42 twice, in November 2008 and again in March 2009. A short-term rally is currently in progress since March 12.

However this stock is extremely volatile and the nature of the decline from the January 6 peak, as the stock moved lower from one circuit to another, implies that risk-averse investors ought to steer clear of this stock since it becomes difficult to sell such stocks once they begin declining. Short-term targets for the stock are Rs 83 and Rs 104. Investors should switch out from this stock in such rallies. Decline below Rs 40 will take the stock to Rs 18.

Technical Analysis - Everonn

Everonn Systems (Rs 156.1): This stock was unable to hold above its October 2008 low and formed a new life-time low at Rs 79 in March this year. The formation of a lower bottom is a sign of weakness and implies that the medium-term trend in the stock continues to be down. Short-term resistances for the stock are at Rs 230 and Rs 317. Investors with a short-to-medium term perspective should exit at either of these levels. Long-term investment in this stock can be considered only on a weekly close above Rs 350.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 12-04-09

TA- Tech Mahindra, TNPL, Essar Oil, Central Bank, DCB, Graphite, TCS, KSB Pumps, NBVenture

Please let me know the outlook for Tech Mahindra. V V Ravi Kumar

Tech Mahindra (Rs 280.6): The steep decline in the last quarter of 2008 halted at Rs 216 and the stock has been moving in a range between Rs 200 and Rs 320 since this trough.

Tech Mahindra tested the support at Rs 200 in January 2009 as well and is currently in a short-term up-trend. Immediate resistance for the stock is around Rs 300 and failure to breach this level will result in the continuation of the sideways move in the range indicated above.

However, a breach of the upper boundary will give the targets of Rs 437 or Rs 586 over the next 12 months.

Investors with a shortterm perspective can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 235. Long-term investors can hold with a deeper stop at Rs 180.

This stock can be accumulated as it moves close to Rs 200 with the same stop.

Investors should however bear in mind that the longterm trend in the stock is down and the risk of further decline in the long-term remains open. Therefore fresh purchases are not recommended on a close below Rs 180.

I am holding 2000 shares of Tamil-Nadu Newsprint purchased at Rs 90. Should I hold the stock or buy more or exit at current level? Anuj Jain

TNPL (Rs 59.7): TNPL was in a structural bull-market from August 1998 to January 2008. Though the long-term trend is down since the beginning of 2008, the stock is pausing at the key long-term support at Rs 60. A long-term trough is possible in the area between Rs 50 and Rs 60. Investors can therefore hold the stock as long as it does not record a weekly close below Rs 50.

Short-term resistances for the stock are at Rs 65 and Rs 75. But a rally to Rs 84 is possible over the next couple of years.

I have purchased Essar Oil at Rs 94. What is the prospect for this stock? P S Rajesh

Essar Oil (Rs 80.3): Essar Oil recorded a dizzying rally from Rs 50 to Rs 333 in the last three months of 2007 when the bull-market frenzy was at a crescendo. The un-sustainability of such up-moves was amply demonstrated in the fact that the stock was back at Rs 54 in October 2008. The stock is moving in a range between Rs 60 and Rs 100 since the Rs 54-trough. This range can continue to shackle the stock over the next few months and we do not envisage a move beyond Rs 130 over the next 12 months.

Support below Rs 50 is at Rs 40. The long-term floor for the stock could be in the band between Rs 30 and Rs 60.

I have purchased Central Bank at Rs 45 and Development Credit Bank at Rs 35. Can I buy more of these stocks at current levels or wait for further correction? Sudheer Shanbhag

Central Bank (Rs 36.7): This stock declined below the 2008 low at Rs 32 to form a new low at Rs 29.7 on March 9. Though the stock has gained over 20 per cent from this trough, it needs to rally further to make the near-term and medium-term view positive.

Short-term resistances for the stock are at Rs 41 and Rs 50. Investors with a shorter investment horizon can sell the stock around the Rs 50 level. Fresh purchases are however advised only on a close above Rs 54.

Development Credit Bank (Rs 22.0): This stock fell way below its listing price of Rs 35 to bottom at Rs 13.5 on March 6. A sustainable bottom appears to have been formed at this level since the stock has moved strongly above the intermediate term trend-line as well as the 50- day moving average.

Next resistance for the stock is around Rs 25. Once this level is cleared, DCB can head towards Rs 36 over the next one year. Investors can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 17.5 and try to book profits at the levels mentioned above.

I have 2000 shares of Graphite India purchased at Rs 23. What is the outlook on this stock?Kanduri Venkata Ramakrishna

Graphite India (Rs 26.1): This stock is attempting to reverse from the trough at Rs 20 formed in March. The recovery this far is not convincing and Graphite India can face resistance at Rs 27 and then Rs 31 in the nearterm.

Investors with a shortterm perspective should exit the stock on reversal from either of these levels.

Inability to move past these resistances would indicate that the stock can head lower towards the next long-term support at Rs 15. Mediumterm view on Graphite India will turn positive only on a close above Rs 39.

Let me know the best price at which to buy Tata Consultancy Services. J Rajagopalan

TCS (Rs 578.5): TCS made a life-time low at Rs 418 in October 2008 and has been moving sideways in the band between Rs 450 and Rs 600 since then.

It is not yet certain if a sustainable trough has been formed last October since sideways move of this kind can be followed by another leg of the decline.

Therefore only investors who have a high risk-appetite can take exposure to this stock close to Rs 450 with a tight stop at Rs 400. In other words, fresh purchases are not recommended on a close below Rs 400. Else, wait for a weekly close above Rs 600 before buying the stock.

Next medium-term target for the stock would be Rs 800. Movement between Rs 400 and Rs 800 is the likely range for the next 12 months.

Please advise whether I can purchaseKSB Pumps Ltd at current levels. Rohit

KSB Pumps (Rs 255.5): The long-term trend in KSB Pumps is down. But the stock is currently trying to stabilize around Rs 170. A rangebound move between Rs 175 and Rs 275 is apparent over the last five-months. Immediate resistance for the stock is at Rs 286. Wait for a close above this level before buying the stock. Another option would be to wait for a correction to the zone between Rs 200 and Rs 220 to buy with a stop at Rs 170.

Fresh purchases should be avoided on a close below Rs 170 since the next support for the stock is at Rs 140 and Rs 90.

Please discuss the prospects of Hanung Toys and Nava Bharat Ventures. Ramana Sarma

Hanung Toys (Rs 36.2): Hanung Toys recorded a lifetime low at Rs 24 in January 2009 and is currently consolidating in the band between Rs 24 and Rs 40.

The risk of the stock declining further to a new low remains as long as it trades below Rs 53. A close above this level would be the first indication that a sustainable recovery is underway. Investors with a short term perspective can sell the stock on rallies to Rs 42 or Rs 48.

Nava Bharat Ventures (Rs 138.8): This stock is reversing from the long-term support at Rs 90. The chart pattern since the November 2008 trough is positive and implies that a long-term bottom could have been formed at Rs 90 in November 2008.

However, the stock needs to cover a lot more ground before the medium-term view turns positive. Key mediumterm resistance is in the band between Rs 160 and Rs 180.

Investors with a lower investment horizon can divest their holding in this band. Stop loss for long-term investors can be at Rs 85.

- Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 06-03-09