Monthly Review Oct 2010

The benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) posted its first monthly decline in five months, but closed 0.5% higher on Friday, propped up by a late surge in ICICI Bank, which soared after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Investors await an eventful week — marked by US Federal Reserve’s two-day meet ending Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India’s policy review on Tuesday and Coal India’s listing on bourses on Thursday — for directional cues. Most economists in a Reuters poll on Thursday expected the central bank to raise rates by at least 25 basis points to rein in stubbornly high inflation in the fastgrowing economy. It would be the sixth increase since mid-March.

Top private lender ICICI Bank rose 6.5%, its best single-day gain in more than 15 months, as it beat forecasts with a 19% rise in quarterly net profit, helped by robust credit growth and fewer bad debts.

The stock rose as much as 7.7% to Rs 1,174, its highest level since February 2008. The 30-share BSE index edged up 0.46%, or 91.30 points, to 20,032.34, with only nine of its components closing in the green.

“There is not much to read in this month’s decline. There were just bouts of profit sales after the rally we saw in September,” said Rakesh Rawal, head of private wealth management at broking firm Anand Rathi. It declined 0.2% this month, first monthly drop after May. The benchmark index had gained 11.7% in September which was its best gain in 16 months. “It is not a panic situation or a sign of big worry,” said Mr Rawal, adding he expected the Sensex to test a new record high by end-December. The 30-share index is still up 14.7% year to date, as foreign funds have invested $24.7 billion in Indian equities in the period. It is around 1,200 points away from its alltime high witnessed in January 2008.

Though most earnings did not disappoint the street, they lacked big positive surprises, which investors had started to factor in the price, Rawal said. India along with Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Phil-ippines slowed in terms of earnings momentum in the last three months from the previous three months while Hong Kong, China and Malaysia showed an improvement, UBS said in a note on Thursday. Cigarette-to-hotel business ITC firmed 2.3% as its September quarter net profit rose 23.5%.

Metals pack lost sheen as base metals fell across the board ahead of US GDP data later in the day and the Fed meeting next week. Non-ferrous metals producer Sterlite Industries and aluminium producer Hindalco dropped 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively, and Tata Steel , world’s seventh-largest maker of the alloy shed 2.4%.

Source ET

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BSE Mid Cap & Small Cap out perform -Weekly review 22 Oct 2010

The market logged marginal gains in the week ended Friday, 22 October 2010, halting a two-week declining trend, on strong initial September 2010 quarterly earnings. Markets across the globe were inflicted with high volatility during the week. Closer home, the key benchmark indices -- the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty -- slipped below the psychological 20,000 and 6,000 levels respectively only to regain those levels later. The market slipped in 3 out of 5 trading sessions in the week.

Volatility rose during the later half of the week as traders rolled over positions in the derivatives segment from the near-month October 2010 contracts to November 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the October 2010 contracts on 28 October 2010.

Weird quotes were seen during the 15-minute pre-open session that began on BSE and NSE on Monday, 18 October 2010, with a wide difference in the Sensex and Nifty values. In the pre-open session, the first eight minutes are reserved for order entry, modification and cancellation. The next four minutes were set aside for order matching and trade confirmation. The remaining three minutes will facilitate the transition from call auction to normal open session.

The near term focus of the market is on Q2 September 2010 quarter earnings as brokerage update their earnings estimates to FY 2012 (year ending March 2012) taking into consideration the latest quarterly earning. The initial batch of Q2 resultsannounced so far have been good with the combined net profit of 307 companies rising 28.90% on 19.80% rise in sales in the quarter ended September 2010 over the quarter ended September 2009.

Investors made a beeline for Coal India shares as the initial public offer (IPO) of the state-run coal giant was subscribed 15.28 times. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) put in bids for a staggering 493.38 crore shares, compared with 28.42 crore shares reserved for the qualified institutional bidders category as a whole. Bidding for the Coal India IPO by the qualified institutional bidders (QIBs) ended on 20 October 2010.

Bidding for the Coal India IPO by non-institutional investors, which mainly consists of high networth individuals and corporates, and retail investors ended on 21 October 2010. The government has raised about Rs 15,000 crore from divestment of 10% stake in Coal India.

As per an industry body survey, the business confidence of India Inc. for the October-December 2010 quarter declined on concerns such as inflation and high interest rates. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) 74th Business Outlook Survey showed the industry lobby's business confidence index for October-December 2010 fell by 1.4 points to 66.2 as compared to an increase of 1.5 points during April-September 2010. The index reflects the expectation of Indian industry about the performance of companies, sectors and the economy. The survey found inflationary conditions, slackening consumer demand, cost and availability of labour and high interest rates as the top concerns

As per the data released by the Central Board of Direct Taxes, corporate tax collections grew by 21.7% to Rs 1.22 lakh crore in April-September this year, from Rs 1 lakh crore in the corresponding six-month period a year ago. Personal income taxcollection - including securities transaction tax, residual fringe benefit tax and banking cash transactions tax - rose by 13.8% to Rs 59,053 crore from Rs 51,897 crore. Collection from indirect tax, comprising of customs, central excise and service taxes, climbed more than 44% to Rs 1,50,686 crore in the first half of the current fiscal, compared to the year-ago period.

The food price index rose 15.53% while the fuel price index climbed 11.14% in the year to 9 October 2010 government data on 21 October 2010 showed. In the prior week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 16.37% and 11.14%, respectively. The primary articles price index was up 18.05% in the latest week compared with an annual rise of 18.54% a week earlier. The Reserve Bank of India next reviews monetary policy on 2 November 2010.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on 22 October 2010 that agreement on managing currencies and adopting current account targets among group of 20 nations remain elusive. "I'm not sure whether this meeting can arrive at an agreement on this issue. It is difficult at this point in time, but we are still trying to negotiate," Mukherjee told reporters when asked about the status talks on currencies and current account targeting by G20 central bank and finance chiefs in South Korea.

Foreign funds have made heavy purchases of Indian equities this year. Net equity inflow in 2010 now stands at a record $24.17 billion, above last year's $17.45 billion, as per data from the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi). The Sebi data includes FII inflow through primary and secondary market route.

A sizable chuck of FII inflow this year is from India-focused exchange traded funds as well as long-only funds.

Global emerging-market equity funds drew record inflows in the third week of October 2010 as investors sought growth in developing nations and the dollar weakened, according to global fund tracker EPFR Global. The funds took in $3.8 billion in the week ending 20 October 2010. Year-to-date inflows to global emerging-market equity funds exceed the record $44.2 billion for the whole of 2009.

Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and EMEA equity funds posted inflows ranging from $327 million to $981 million in the week ending 20 October 2010. Dedicated BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) equity funds had their best week since February 2010, but were again eclipsed by Frontier equity funds, which pulled in $150 million, a 145-week high. Turkey equity funds saw inflows for the eighth week.

The BSE Sensex rose 40.81 points or 0.20% to 20,165.86 in the week ended Friday, 22 October 2010. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 3.40 points or 0.05% to 6,066.05.

The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 1.37% to 8,425.80 and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.88% to 10,723.70. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Trading for the week started on a positive note with the key benchmark indices posting small gains on Monday, 18 October 2010 helped by robust Q2 September 2010 financials from engineering major L&T and housing finance leader HDFC. The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 43.84 points or 0.22% to 20,168.89 and the S&P CNX Nifty was up 13.30 points or 0.22% to 6,075.95.

On Tuesday, 19 October 2010, the market tumbled in late trade after a strong start, on profit booking in a highly volatile trading session. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 185.76 points or 0.92% to 19,983.13 and the S&P CNX Nifty was down 48.65 points or 0.80% to 6,027.30.

The key benchmark indices edged lower on Wednesday, 20 October 2010, registering their fourth decline in five days, as a strong response to the mega initial public offer of Coal India indicated diversion of funds from the secondary market to primary market. The BSE 30-share Sensex declined 110.98 points or 0.56% to 19,872.15 and the S&P CNX Nifty was down 45.20 points or 0.75% to 5,982.10.

Strong initial batch of Q2 September 2010 results, and gains in European stocks and US index futures sent Indian stockssurging on Thursday, 21 October 2010. The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 388.43 points or 1.95% to 20,260.58 and the S&P CNX Nifty was up 119.40 points or 2% to 6,101.50.

The key benchmark indices edged lower amid high volatility on Friday, 22 October 2010, tracking weak European stocks and lower US index futures, as caution prevailed ahead of G-20 meet. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 94.72 points or 0.47% to 20,165.86 and the S&P CNX Nifty was down 35.45 points or 0.58% to 6,066.05.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 17 declined while the rest gained.

India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) jumped 9.37% to Rs 1040.10 during the week and was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. The stock also struck a record high of Rs 1049.90 on 22 October 2010 following announcement of forecast beating Q2 financials.

TCS after trading hours on Thursday, 21 October 2010, reported a 14.22% rise in consolidated net profit as per US accounting standards to Rs 2106.50 crore on 13.01% growth in total revenue to Rs 9286.40 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q1 June 2010.

India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys fell 0.74%. Infosys before market hours on 15 October 2010, reported a 16.7% rise in consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to Rs 1737 crore on 12.1% growth in revenue to Rs 6947 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q1 June 2010. The core operating profit margin (OPM) surged to 30.2% in Q2 September 2010 from 28.31% in Q1 June 2010.

Infosys also raised its earnings as well revenue forecast for the year ending March 2011 in both dollar and rupee terms. But, it cautioned about the global economic environment.

India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro lost 5.30% as Q2 results fell short of market expectations. Consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards rose 9.75% to Rs 1284.90 crore on 11.7% growth in revenue to Rs 7730.50 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q2 September 2009. The results hit the market before trading hours on Friday, 22 October 2010.

Wipro expects 3.5% to 5.5% growth in revenue from our IT services business at between $1.31 to $1.34 billion in Q3 December 2010 over Q2 September 2010.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) advanced 3.90% at Rs 1081.45. As per reports, RIL may actively bid for oil and gas exploration blocks, including nine new areas, being auctioned by the Government. Out of 34 blocks being offered under NELP-IX, 19 blocks are new areas -- seven are in deep sea, two in shallow waters and ten onland blocks. The rest 15 (one in deep water, five in shallow water and nine onland blocks) are recycled blocks.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rose 0.16%. The company on 16 October 2010 said it has made two new discoveries of oil and gas reserves -- gas at the Krishna-Godavari basin block and oil in the Cauvery basin.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro (L&T) rose 1.58%. Profit after tax from ordinary activities rose 19.59% to Rs 694.14 crore on 17.72% rise in net sales to Rs 9260.77 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q2 September 2009. The company announced the result during market hours on 18 October 2010.

The L&T management maintained its revenue growth forecast at 20% for the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011). A senior executive of the company said the order book is seen rising 25% in FY 2011, maintaining the earlier guidance.

India's largest non-ferrous metal firm by sales Sterlite Industries India slumped 5.80% to Rs 168.20 and was the top loser from the Sensex pack. The Supreme Court on 18 October 2010, extended a stay on a lower court order asking Sterlite Industries to close its copper smelter in south India. The stay will continue till the second week of December 2010, allowing the unit to continue its operations.

Earlier, on 1 October 2010, the Supreme Court had stayed till 18 October 2010 an order from the Madras High Court asking Sterlite to shut its smelter in Tuticorin on environmental grounds.

India's largest mortgage lender by total income HDFC slipped 4.66%. Net profit rose 21.62% to Rs 807.54 crore on 4.2% rise in total income to Rs 2970.22 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q2 September 2009. The company announced the results during trading hours on 18 October 2010.

Cipla (up 3.86%), Hero Honda Motors (up 2.92%), and Reliance Communications (up 1.88%), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Jaiprakash Associates (down 3.79%), Tata Steel (down 2.93%), and DLF (down 2.89%), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Shares of Commercial Engineers & Body Builders Company (CEBBCO) settled at Rs 112.25 on BSE, an 11.61% discount to the initial public offer price of Rs 127 on its debut on 18 October 2010.

Oberoi Realty settled at Rs 282.95 on BSE, a premium of 8.83% over the initial public offer price of Rs 260 on its debut on 20 October 2010.

Source : CM

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Market Khabar / Outlook for 4th Oct 2010

Buoyed by the non-controversial judgment on Ayodhya, FII inflows and expectations over second quarter results, markets moved closer to their life-time peak seen last in 2008 during the week ended.

On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex gained 400 points closing at 20,445 and the Nifty on the NSE ended 125 points higher at 6,143. With bulls firmly in control, midcap and small cap counters have begun dancing. It is pertinent to recall that markets have corrected usually after five or six quarterly gains. However this time momentum may propel markets to far higher levels than expected before correcting, say market players.

Weakness of the dollar has added impetus to equities and commodities. Impending Coal India IPO and the flurry of activity in the primary market may impact liquidity, fear observers.

Ahead of second quarter numbers stock specific activity is indicated. Barring negative cues from abroad, markets look good for few more weeks.

For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 19,960 and 20,880 for the Sensex and 5,980 and 6,270 for the Nifty.

Crossover of resistances at 20,800 and 6,250 levels with volumes may see the benchmark indices test their life time peaks. Supports for the week exist at 20,220 and 20,040 and 6,070 and 6,010.

Buy good standard stocks that have stood the test of time.

Futures & Options

Exuberant volumes in the derivatives segment reflect strong bullish undertone in the markets. The October series has started with second highest ever at more than `1,33,000 crore. Fall in Nifty open interest and rise in open interest of stock futures shows the changing trade preferences of market players. More wild moves like the one seen in Orchid are not ruled out. Put/call ratio at 1.36 clearly indicates that many ‘shorts’ still exist.
* F&O rollover data indicates that defensive sectors FMCG and pharma are ‘preferred’ ones now. ITC, HLL and Titan look good for further gains. Biocon, Cipla and Piramal Healthcare may touch `400, `355 and `555.
* Metal stocks continued to shine on the back of weakness in dollar. Further gains indicated in Hindalco, Tata Steel and SAIL. As expected strong buying interest was seen in power equipment and capital goods stocks. Stay invested in the sectors and add on declines.
* After a slight wobble, IT counters are witnessing good accumulation ahead of their Q2 numbers. Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech from frontline and Firstsource and Rolta from second rung look good.
* Improvement in retail prices and expected changes in policy have triggered buying in sugar stocks. Buy on declines Shree Renuka, Triveni and Balrampur Chini. Punters are targeting cash group sugar counters.
* Selective buying was seen in infra stocks. Buy LITL, NCC and Punj Lloyd for target prices of `85, `185 and `150.
* True to their form auto stocks continued to be on fast track. Hold positions. Savvy traders are accumulating cement scrips. Contrarians tip targets of `140, `1,060 and `155 for India Cements, ACC and Ambuja Cements.
* Stock specific activity indicated in GE Shipping, Welspun Guj and Zee. GE Shipping may rally to `375 shortly, say insiders.

Stock scan

Neuland Labs is focused on the manufacture of APIs, contract research and contract manufacturing. The company has recently completed expansion of its facilities and has also diversified into peptides. It is also one of the first Indian API manufacturers to get PMDA approval of Japan. Good news on cards. Buy for a target price of `200 in medium term.

Tera Software has reportedly bagged large e-governance orders. Sources indicate that the company will be one of the beneficiaries of unique ID project. Strong buying in the counter indicates likely target of `90 in near term.

Fund managers are touting Indusind Bank as the next HDFC Bank in making. Successful completion of its recent QIP issue at `234.55 and rating upgrade by ICRA are indicators of makeover of the bank. With the QIP in progress, the bank is well capitalised and likely to witness aggressive growth in next few quarters. Buy for a target price of `400 in medium term.

Kamat Hotels engaged in the business of hospitality and allied businesses has firmly established four brands The Orchid, VITS, Gadh Hotels and Lotus Resorts. Its turnaround has put the counter under spotlight. Buy for short term target of `225.

Elder Pharma is one of the leading players in pharmaceutical formulations. Flush with funds after its QIP, it has acquired NeutraHealth, a UK-based supplier of nutrients and vitamins. Buy at current levels for target price of `550 in next few months.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source DC.com

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Weekly Analysis 29 Sept 2010

It was a super September indeed with indices racing closer to previous highs. While the long wait over the Ayodhya dispute ended with the Allahabad High Court declaring a split but pragmatic verdict. On the street, the verdict was very clear, Bullishness reigned supreme. A broad-based rally on Friday closed the indices around 2% higher. Being the F&O expiry week, volatility was at its peak especially on Thursday.

Sensex intra-week high of 20,475 and low of 19,864

Nifty intra-week high of 6,153 and low of 5,963

Sensex top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Hindalco (up 6.9%), DLF (up 6.3%), Tata Steel (up 6%), BHEL (up 5.4%) and NTPC (up 4.8%).

Sensex top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Ambuja Cements (down 2.9%), ONGC (down 2.2%), Hindustan Unilever (down 1.7%), Reliance Capital (down 1.4%) and ACC (down 1%).

The BSE IT Index (up 2.1%): The top gainers in the IT sector were Wipro (up 3.3%), TCS (up 3.2%), HCL Tech (up 2.2%), Oracle Financial (up 1.7%) and Infosys (up 1.7%).

The top losers in the IT sector were Mahindra Satyam (down 8.9%), Patni Computer (down 3.9%), Mphasis (down 3.2%) and Financial Tech (down 2.9%).

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the Consumer Durables sector were Videocon Industries (up 7.8%), Blue Star (up 0.5%) and Samtel Color (up 0.4%).

The top losers were Mirc Electronics (down 4.3%), Whirlpool (down 1.5%) and Titan (down 1.1%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 2.2%): The top gainers in the Pharma space were Orchid Chem (up 28.3%), Wockhardt (up 13%), Cadila Healthcare (up 8.7%), Glenmark Pharma (up 8.4%) and Suven Life Science (up 8.1%).

The top losers were Emami Limited (down 4.1%), Fresenius Kabi (down 2.7%), Marksans Pharma (down 2.5%), Morepen Labs (down 1.5%) and Divi Labs (down 1.3%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 2.4%):The top gainers in the banking space were Yes Bank (up 6%), Bank Of India (up 5.7%), Oriental Bank of Commerce (up 5.5%), Axis Bank (up 4.5%) and SBI (up 4.2%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 2.6%):The top gainers in the auto space were Eicher Motors (up 9.8%), Bajaj Auto (up 6.8%), Tata Motors (up 3.8%), Hindustan Motors (up 3.7%) and M&M (up 3.6%).

The top losers were Hero Honda (down 0.8%), Swaraj Mazda (down 0.2%) and Maruti Suzuki (down 0.1%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (down 0.4%):The top losers in the oil & gas space were HPCL (down 5.2%), IOC (down 4.5%), BPCL (down 4.3%), Jindal Drilling (down 3.3%) and Great Offshore (down 2.5%).

The top gainers were Shiv-Vani Oil (up 4.2%), Cairn India (up 2.8%), Chennai Petroleum (up 2.4%) and Reliance Industries (up 0.6%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 3.7%):The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Alstom Projects (up 8.8%), Siemens India (up 6.1%), BHEL (up 5.4%), ABB (up 5.1%) and Elgi Equipments (up 4.7%).

The top losers were Jyoti Structures (down 2.1%), Skf India (down 1.9%), Praj Industries (down 1.8%), Dredging Corp (down 1.7%) and Ingersoll Rand (down 1.1%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Birla Corp (up 8.7%), Ultratech Cement (up 6.1%), Binani Indus (up 4.8%), Mangalam Cement (up 4.7%) and Grasim Inds (up 2.6%)

The top losers in the cement sector were Dalmia Cement (down 22.5%), Madras Cements (down 2.7%), Prism Cement (down 2.6%) and ACC (down 1%).

The Telecom Sector: The top losers in the telecom space were Gemini Comm (down 9.6%), Himachal Futuristic (down 8.9%), Idea Cellular (down 4.9%), Tata Communication (down 4.4%) and WWIL (down 4.1%).

The Realty Sector (up 5%): The top gainers in the real estate space were Unitech (up 10.2%), DLF (up 6.3%), Mahindra Lifespace (up 6.2%), Ansal Props (up 5.5%) and Anant Raj Indus (up 5.4%).

The top losers were Akruti City (down 1.7%) and Omaxe (down 0.3%).

The Metals sector (up 5.2%):The top gainers in the metals sector were SAIL (up 8.5%), JSW Steel (up 7.4%), Tata Steel (up 6%), Tata Sponge (up 5.7%) and Jindal Steel (up 5.5%).

The top losers were Adhunik Metaliks (down 1.4%), Sunflag Iron (down 0.8%), Lloyds Metals (down 0.5%).

Source IIFL

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BSE / NSE Analysis 27 Sept 2010

The all-time peaks of January 2008 appear within striking distance. Even global markets seem to be resilient. A flood of FII money, and stronger than expected domestic economic data have made India among the best performers. Liquidity deluge has propelled both Sensex and Nifty higher by 2.3% each during the week.

Sensex intra-week high of 20,106 and low of 19,445

Nifty intra-week high of 6,037and low of 5,885

Sensex top gainers: The top gainers in the Sensex were Hindustan Unilever (up 11.8%), HDFC (up 7.2%), Ranbaxy Labs (up 6.8%), Hero Honda Motor (up 6.8%) and Maruti Suzuki (up 6.7%).

Sensex top Losers: The top losers in the Sensex were Reliance Industries (down 2.5%), Grasim Inds (down 2.4%).

BSE FMCG index (up 5.2%): The FMCG index was the top gainer among the BSE sectoral indices. The major gainers were, Hindustan Unilever (up 11.4%) and ITC (up 5.3%).

The BSE IT Index (up 2.1%):The top gainers in the IT sector were Mahindra Satyam (up 9%), Wipro (up 6.4%), Infosys (up 2.7%), TCS (up 2%) and Mphasis (up 1.9%).

The top losers were Financial Tech (down 13.9%) and Patni Computer (down 0.9%).

The BSE Consumer Index: The top gainers in the Consumer Durables sector were Mirc Electronics (up 9.9%) and Blue Star (up 5.4%), Titan (up 4.5%).

The top losers were Whirlpool (down 4.8%), Videocon Industries (down 0.5%) and Su-Raj Diamonds (down 0.2%).

The BSE Healthcare Index (up 2.2%):The top gainers in the Pharma space were Glaxosmithkline (up 8%), Ranbaxy Labs (up 6.8%), Emami Limited (up 5.5%), IPCA Labs (up 4.7%) and Lupin (up 3.6%).

The top losers were Strides Arcolab (down 3.2%), Morepen Labs (down 2.2%), Panacea Biotec (down 2.1%), Aurobindo Pharma (down 1.7%) and Natco Pharma (down 1.6%).

The BSE Banking Index (up 1.1%):The top gainers in the banking space were Karnataka Bank (up 4.6%), HDFC Bank (up 3.9%), Federal Bank (up 3.5%), Union Bank of India (up 2.3%) and Yes Bank (up 2.3%)

The top losers were OBC (down 3.8%), IOB (down 2.7%), Allahabad Bank (down 2.4%), Andhra Bank (down 1.6%) and Bank of India (down 0.4%).

The BSE Auto Index (up 2.4%):The top gainers in the auto space were Hero Honda (up 6.8%), Maruti Suzuki (up 6.7%), Tata Motors (up 3.6%), M&M (up 1.6%) and Swaraj Mazda (up 1.1%).

The top losers were Eicher Motors (down 4.6%), Hindustan Motors (down 3.4%) and Ashok Leyland (down 2.4%).

The BSE Oil & Gas Index (down 0.8%): The top losers in the oil & gas space were Gujarat NRE Coke (down 4%), Cairn India (down 3.8%), Reliance Industries (down 2.5%), Hindustan Oil (down 2.4%) and Shiv-Vani Oil (down 2.1%).

The top gainers were GSPL (up 3.2%), BPCL (up 3.1%), ONGC (up 2.9%), Jindal Drilling (up 2.4%) and IOC (up 2.1%).

The BSE Capital Goods Index (up 2%):The top gainers in the Capital Goods space were Gammon India (up 9.1%), Siemens India (up 4.4%), ABB (up 4.1%), Aban Offshore (up 3.2%) and Usha Martin (up 2.9%).

The top losers were Bharat Electronics (down 4%), Kirloskar Brother (down 2.9%), HEG (down 2.8%), Carborundum Univ (down 2.7%) and Alfa Laval (down 2.6%).

The Cement Sector: The top gainers in the cement sector were Madras Cements (up 3.3%), India Cements (up 2.4%), ACC (up 1.7%), Prism Cement (up 1.4%) and Shree Cement (up 0.4%).

The Telecom Sector: The top gainers in the telecom space were Himachal Futuristic (up 10.8%), Gemini Comm (up 8.3%), WWIL (up 2.8%), Bharti Airtel (up 2.6%) and RCom (up 1.7%).

The top losers were Tata Communication (down 3.5%), Shyam Telecom (down 2.8%), TTML (down 2.1%) and MTNL (down 0.1%).

The Realty Sector (down 0.5%): The top losers were HDIL (down 4%), Unitech (down 2.7%), Ansal Props (down 2.2%) and Mahindra Lifespace (down 1.1%).

The top gainers in the real estate space were Omaxe (up 4%), DLF (up 3.6%), Sobha Developers (up 3.3%), Parsvnath (up 1.7%) and Anant Raj Indus (up 1.1%).

The Metals sector (up 1%): The top gainers in the metals sector were Jindal Stainless (up 16.5%), Tata Steel (up 4.2%), Bhuwalka Steel (up 3.8%), SAIL (up 2.1%) and Bhushan Steel (up 2.1%).

The top losers were Sunflag Iron (down 4.3%), Ispat Industries (down 4%), Jindal Steel (down 2.1%), Tata Sponge (down 1.7%) and Tata Metaliks (down 1.6%)

Source IIFL.com

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Market Analysis & Out look 27 Sept 2010

Emboldened by better than expected domestic economic data, flood of FII money and announcement of measures by the government to increase foreign capital inflows to the debt market bulls were seen partying hard during the week that ended.

Both the benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty closed above 20K and 6K at 20045 and 6018 with gain of 450 points and 133 points respectively. After lying low for better part of the week heightened activity was seen in midcap and smallcap stocks by weekend. Expect fireworks in many counters say market watchers.

Despite indices within the striking distance of lifetime highs, retail investor participation has been dismal till date reflecting skepticism over the rally. With FIIs calling the shots and many domestic companies vying with each other to raise capital; liquidity is driving the market for the present. Outstanding F&O positions, stubborn inflation, high trade and current account deficits continue to be causes for concern.

Developments on Ayodhya front, F&O expiry and monthly auto sales numbers may dictate the market course in the coming week. Weekend rally in US markets may see markets open higher at the start of the week. Irrational exuberance is not ruled out.

For the week ahead chartists predict trading range of 19800-20560 for the Sensex and 5910-6240 for the Nifty. Short term supports for the indices are at 19800 & 19580 and 5950 & 5880. Expect a bumpy ride as indices accelerate towards their life time highs.

Futures & Options
With indices moving past 20,000 and 6,000 levels, volumes in the derivative segment have soared to record levels. Average daily turnover was at `1,42,000 crore. Open interest is at all time high of `220000 crore. High put/call ratio clearly indicates that short covering by bears may result in explosive moves. Keep close watch on rollovers to spot winners. It is pertinent to recall that markets have corrected unexpectedly as and when number of stocks in F&O ban list crossed 10-mark.
* Dormant FMCG counters witnessed smart rally on reports price hikes and domestic consumption story. Hold positions in HLL, ITC and Colgate for further gains.
n Auto stocks are revving up ahead of the second quarter results. Buy on corrections Tata Motors, Maruti, M&M and Ashok Leyland. Rumours of buyback or open offer from Suzuki are doing the rounds in Maruti.
* From the pharma pack, Lupin, Ranbaxy and Sun Pharma look good for targets of `435, `625 and `2050 in next few weeks.
* Cement stocks are attracting buying on every decline. Fresh uptrend in ACC, Ultratech and India Cements not ruled out.
* Realty counters are becoming slowly resilient to corrections. Buy on declines DLF and Unitech.
* Reliance pack continues to be underperformer in the present rally.
* Stay overweight in banking, autos, pharma and capital goods sectors. Selective buying suggested in cement, FMCG and metal sectors. Breakout targets of `180, `450, `1500 and `235 for IDBI Bank, Federal Bank, LIC Housing and IDFC are tipped by company watchers.
* Among the side counters looking good are Aban Offshore, Crompton Greaves, KFA, GAIL, JSW Holdings, Nagarjuna Fertilisers, Exide Industries, RILPower and Pantaloon Retail.
* Big losers of the week ended in the markets are Financial Technologies, BEML and HCC may witness relief rally.

Stock scan

Good sales momentum from the residential projects and Jaipur SEZ has triggered renewed buying in Mahindra Lifespace. Buy on declines for target price of `575. Marico’s inorganic growth to expand international business has started paying good dividends. The launch of new products such as functional foods and hair creams by leveraging its flagship brands Parachute and Saffola and by repositioning of Kaya from ‘cure’ to ‘care’, the company is transforming itself from a single product company to a diversified FMCG player. Buy for a target price of `175 in medium term.

A strong order book with good near term earnings visibility and investment by Norwest Venture and Xander in the company’s subsidiary make Sadbhav Engineering good investment bet for target price of `2000 in next few months.

Andhra Petro, Savera Inds, Patel Airtemp and Greaves Cotton are in the buying list of savvy players.

Surge in volumes of Andhra Petroleum clearly spells target of `40 in short term. Ahead of bonus, strong buying indicated in Savera Industries. Patel Airtemp, a manufacturer of process equipment and engineering goods, is attracting good buying interest.

Infrastructure equipment division of Greaves Cotton likely to report strong growth.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

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Market Khabar 20th Sept 2010

Markets remained buoyant during the week ended on the back of global liquidity flows, advance tax numbers and general positive sentiment. They had also ignored the hawkish monetary policy of Reserve bank.
The Sensex closed at 19,594 with a gain of 794 points and the Nifty ended 245 points higher at 5,885. Market breadth reveals out-performance by frontline stocks and subdued activity in midcap and smallcap stocks.

Weekend action in broader market indicates that the coming week may witness heightened activity in midcap and smallcap counters.

According to market players, all-time highs for indices are not ruled out before Diwali. Analysts say that the present exuberance in stock markets is not irrational and justified by fundamentals. FII inflows, economic growth story and corporate earnings performance are the reasons touted for the rally. Changes in WPI suggest that the government is keen on passing on changes in global crude oil prices or foodgrain procurement prices to consumers. Inflation continues to bother RBI and bankers do not rule out another hike in November. Barring any political turmoil ignited by Ayodhya verdict or unexpected weakness in global markets, markets may seek higher levels in the near term. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 19,360 and 20,130 for the Sensex and 5,760 and 6,040 for the Nifty. Expect the indices to take a pause before crossing 20,000 and 6,000 levels. Supports for the week are at 19,440 and 19,280 and 5,830 and 5,760.

Futures & Options

Mirroring the strong bullish undertone, robust volumes were seen in the derivative segment. Open interest continues to soar with punters building positions in stock futures. Option activity indicates strong support for Nifty between 5,750 and 5,825 band and resistance closer to the 6,000-level. All the sectoral indices ended in the green on a weekly basis reflecting the spread of the rally. Apart from the banking and oil and gas counters, sustained buying was seen in consumer durables, realty and healthcare stocks. Despite strong momentum in the banking sector, traders are advised caution at higher levels. From the pharma pack, Lupin, Ranbaxy Labs, Dr Reddy’s Labs and Sun Pharma may touch new highs. Stay invested for present. Renewed buying interest was seen in telecom and cement stocks. Buy on declines Bharti and Idea.

Reports of cartelisation and price hikes have given fillip to the cement counters. Buy on declines ACC, Shree Cements, Ultratech and Birla Corp for contrarian gains.

Dollar weakness prompted buying in metal and mining stocks. Tata Steel, National Aluminum, Bhushan Steel and Sesa Goa may touch Rs 640, Rs 450, Rs 2,300 and Rs 350 in the near term.

Comeback rally in RIL may witness mild setback due to the government’s reluctance to increase the price of KG Basin gas. Use correction for buying only. From power stocks, CESC and Ril Power may see a renewed buying interest. Among the side counters, Dabur, Biocon, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Ril Capital, Essar Oil, Suzlon, Adani Enterprises, Everest Kanto, and Godrej Inds looks good.

Stock scan

Albert David Ltd belonging to the Kothari group is the manufacturer of pharmaceutical formulations, infusion solutions, herbal products, bulk drugs and disposable syringes and needles. The company has tied up with the world’s largest manufacturer of amino acids, Ajinomoto Co. Inc. of Japan and has received the approval of US FDA for DMF of bulk drugs tolbutamide and chlorpropamide. An approved WHO supplier, the company exports to more than 20 countries. A book value of Rs 110 and trailing EPS of Rs 20 make the stock a good bet for the target price of Rs 225 in the medium term.

Hinduja Foundries Ltd is the largest automobile jobbing foundry in the country with a production capacity of 1,43,000 tonnes of grey iron casting and 3,000 tonnes of aluminum gravity die-casting. In India, one vehicle out of three in India is fitted with HFL made cylinder block casting. With a strong revival in the demand for castings on the back of a dramatic turnaround in auto sector and expansion of its Hyderabad and Sriperumbudur plants, the company is well placed to report a good performance in coming quarters. Buy on declines for a price target of Rs 250.

Savvy market players are accumulating Vishnu Chemicals, Parekh Aluminex, Essar Shipping Ports, Elder Pharma, Bilcare and Artson Engineering. True to predictions breakout gains are seen in Vishnu Chemicals. A target price of Rs 175 on cards. Parekh Aluminex is the largest manufacturer of aluminum foil products used for packaging. Recent completion of expansion has trebled the capacity. Buy on declines for a target of Rs 600.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

Source : DC.com

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Bse / NSE - 13 Sept 2010

The markets had its best session in several months on Monday.

The bulls went on a rampage picking up blue chip stocks thanks to the strong industrial production numbers that July threw up and on the back of encouraging economic data from the US and China.

Incidentally, all the reports, the data on industrial production in India, the US wholesale inventories data and the data on Chinese trade surplus, came out over the weekend, setting up a solid platform for the bulls even before the opening bell rang at the Indian bourses today.

Not to let go the opportunity, the bulls made a beeline at the frontline counters - with the banking sector attracting the most attention - and kept lapping up stocks till the very end.

The resultant surge in values of stocks was so sharp that the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty moved past 19,000 and 5700 levels and then way beyond, to record their best levels since January 18 2008.

While the Sensex, which zoomed to 19,243.44, ended the day with a gain of 408.67 points or 2.17% at 19,208.33, the Nifty closed at 5760, slightly off the day's high of 5770.60, with a gain of 119.95 points or 2.13%.

Mirroring strong gains posted by key bank stocks, the Bankex jumped by over 3.6%.

l

3:24 PM: Buy BHEL with a 10-day target of Rs 2550 and stop loss of Rs 2450, says Parsh Zaveri of Zaveri Investments on CNBC Awaaz Send to friends

3:20 PM: Buy Infosys, Wipro and TCS on dips.

These stocks may remain a bit slippery in the near term, but their long term prospects remain bright. HCL Tech and Mphasis can also be picked up at sharp declines. Send to friends

3:16 PM: Buy Federal Bank with a target of Rs 425 and stop loss of Rs 360, says Kunal Saraogi, technical analyst, on Zee Business Send to friends

3:12 PM: Steel Strips Wheels gains 3%

3:08 PM: Buy YES Bank with a target of Rs 344 and stop loss of Rs 322, says Krunal Dayma, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Send to friends

3:04 PM: Vishal Retail gains 8.5%

3:00 PM: Buy Garware Polyster with a target of Rs 250, says DD Sharma of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit Send to friends

2:56 PM: Hold HDFC (Rs 664) and pick up more of it at declines.

The stock is a good one for medium to long term. A fairly good upmove is likely in the near term as well.

2:52 PM: Buy LIC Housing Finance with a 2-3 week target of Rs 1300 and stop loss of Rs 1140, says Sudhanshu Pandey, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

2:48 PM: Hold Crompton Greaves (Rs 312) and buy more in small quantities at declines for medium to long term. One with a short term view can book some profits at rallies and buy again later on dips.

2:44 PM: Buy OBC with a target of Rs 480 and stop loss of Rs 447, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

2:40 PM: Bank stocks are likely to see further upside in the near term.

Still, investors with a low appetite for risk would do well to stay stock specific and have strict stop loss triggers in place.

2:36 PM: Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services gains 12%

2:32 PM: Buy Tata Chemicals with a 3-4 day target of Rs 453 and stop loss of Rs 418, says Manoj Sachdeva of Hem Securities on CNBC Awaaz.

2:28 PM: Buy Hero Honda with a target of Rs 1765 and stop loss of Rs 1700, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit

2:24 PM: Reliance Industries gains 2%

2:20 PM: Buy Ahmednagar Forgings with a 4-5 month target of Rs 180 and stop loss of Rs 110, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Send to friends

2:16 PM: State Bank of India gains 4.65%

2:08 PM: Buy Ahmednagar Forgings with a 4-5 month target of Rs 180 and stop loss of Rs 110, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Send to friends

2:04 PM: Housing finance stock HDFC is up 4.8% at Rs 660.65

2:00 PM: Hold DLF with targets of Rs 370 and 400 and stop loss of Rs 300, says Hemant Kale of Maia Financial Services on NDTV Profit.

1:56 PM: Reliance Communications (down 0.7%) is down in negative territory at present.

1:52 PM: Hold Ashok Leyland (Rs 73) and buy more in small quantities on dips for long term. Keep a stop loss near Rs 62.

1:48 PM: Sell Cipla with a target of Rs 296 and stop loss of Rs 312, says Krunal Dayma, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

1:44 PM: One holding Bank of India (Rs 501) with a short term view can book some profits at current levels or rallies. Fresh buying for long term can be considered at sharp declines.

1:40 PM: Buy Whirlpool on dips with a target of Rs 350-360 and stop loss of Rs 290, says Ashish Chaturmotha of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit.

1:36 PM: Buy Shree Renuka Sugars with a 4-6 month target of Rs 90-100, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC Awaaz

1:32 PM: Bank stocks are turning in a sterling peformance today.

1:28 PM: Buy ICICI Bank with a 5-6 day target of Rs 1140 and stop loss of Rs 1015, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

1:24 PM: Hold Everest Kanto Cylinder (cmp Rs 116) with a stop loss near Rs 106. The stock could rise to Rs 125 and a breakout there could result in a surge to Rs 137 or even higher.

1:20 PM: Hold Supreme Industries with a target of Rs 715 and trailing stop loss of Rs 680, says Nikita Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

1:16 PM: Hold Exide Industries (Rs 161) and buy more in small quantities on dips for medium to long term. One looking at short term can exit at rallies and re-enter the counter at sharp declines.

1:12 PM: Buy Adani Enterprises with a target of Rs 735 and stop loss of Rs 675, says Kunal Saraogi, technical analyst, on Zee Business

1:08 PM: Buy Nifty Futures for the target prices of Rs 5650 / 5680 / higher with a stop loss of Rs 5426: ICICIDirect

1:04 PM: Buy Infosys with a 5-7 day target of Rs 2970 and stop loss of Rs 2835, says Imtiaz Qureishi, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz

12:56 PM: Buy Praj Industries (Rs 77) for medium term. The stock could rise to Rs 94 - 98.

12:48 PM: Buy SBI with a target of Rs 3400 and stop loss of Rs 3000, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

12:44 PM: Buy IDFC for the target prices of Rs 192.80/194/Higher with a stop loss of Rs 188.90: ICICIDirect

12:40 PM: Buy Maruti Suzuki with a target of Rs 1335 and stop loss of Rs 1304, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

12:36 PM: Buy HCL Tech for the target prices of Rs 419/421.50/Higher with a stop loss of Rs 409.80: ICICIDirect

12:32 PM: Buy Videocon Industries with a target of Rs 275 and stop loss of Rs 261, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18 Send to friends

12:28 PM: Sell Cairn with a stop loss of Rs 330.20: ICICIDirect

12:24 PM: Sell ITC with a target of Rs 158 and stop loss of Rs 168, says Nikita Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business.

12:20 PM: Sell Sesa Goa with a stop loss of Rs 315.80: ICICIDirect

12:16 PM: Hold Taj GVK with a target of Rs 220 on breaking above Rs 170 and keep stop loss of Rs 155, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business

12:12 PM: Buy Central Bank of India (Rs 193) for some solid short term gains. One looking at long term can pick up Vijaya Bank, UCO Bank and Syndicate Bank at declines.

12:08 PM: Hold Apollo Tyres with targets of Rs 96 and 106 and stop loss of Rs 80, says Hemant Kale of Maia Financial Services on NDTV Profit

12:04 PM: Buy Opto Circuits (Rs 307) at current levels and add more on dips. The stock is likely to give fairly solid returns over a medium term.

11:56 AM: Hold United Bank with a stop loss of Rs 105, says Pankaj Jain of Satguru Capital on Zee Business

11:52 AM: Hold MTNL (Rs 64) and buy small quantities at declines for medium term.

Though the stock may not move up sharply in the near term, the downside risk looks limited from here.

11:48 AM: Buy Indiabulls Real Estate on dips with a target of Rs 186 and stop loss of Rs 177, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

11:44 AM: Buy Unitech September Futures above 82.45: ICICIDirect

11:40 AM: Buy Bharat Forge at Rs 369 with a 3-4 day target of Rs 390 and stop loss of Rs 362, says Manoj Sachdeva of Hem Securities on CNBC Awaaz

11:36 AM: Buy ZEE September Futures above 292.90: ICICIDirect Send to friends

11:24 AM: Sell Sesa Goa with a target of Rs 300 and stop loss of Rs 320, says Shardul Kulkarni of Angel Broking on NDTV Profit.

11:20 AM: Buy Sanwaria Agro Oils for the target prices of Rs 58 / higher with a stop loss of Rs 48: ICICIDirect

11:12 AM: Buy Mahindra & Mahindra 660 Call at Rs 12 with target of Rs 20, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC TV18

11:08 AM: Buy Nagarjuna Fertilizers for the target prices of Rs 34.80/ higher with a stop loss of Rs 30.50: ICICIDirect

11:04 AM: Buy IDBI Bank with a target of Rs 145 and stop loss of Rs 137, says Salil Sharma, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18

11:00 AM: Buy SAIL September Futures above 197: ICICIDirect

10:52 AM: Buy GSFC with a 5-day target of Rs 330 and stop loss of Rs 305, says Parsh Zaveri of Zaveri Investments on CNBC Awaaz.

10:48 AM: Hold GMR Infrastructure and IRB Infrastructure if looking at medium term. Add small quantities of these stocks at sharp declines. Send to friends

10:40 AM: Buy Chambal Fertilisers with a target of Rs 87 and stop loss of Rs 72, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

10:36 AM: Hold IFGL Refractories (Rs 56) and buy more of the stock at declines. The stock could give fairly strong returns over a short to medium term.

10:32 AM: Hold United Bank with a stop loss of Rs 105, says Pankaj Jain of Satguru Capital on Zee Business

10:28 AM: IndusInd Bank (Rs 242) could see further upside in the near term. One can stay invested in the stock. Fresh buying can be considered at declines. Send to friends

10:24 AM: Buy Chambal Fertilisers with a target of Rs 84 and stop loss of Rs 73, says Arun Kejriwal, market analyst, on Zee Business

10:20 AM: Buy SBI for the target price of Rs 2970 with a stop loss of 2950: Praveen

10:16 AM: Buy McLeod Russels futures at Rs 261 with target of Rs 268 and stop loss of Rs 258, says VK Sharma of HDFC Securities on CNBC TV18

10:12 AM: NTPC (Rs 202) is a good buy for medium to long term. One can buy the stock in small quantities on dips. Send to friends

10:08 AM: Buy IDFC with a 1-2 day target of Rs 200 and stop loss of Rs 187, says Imtiaz Qureishi, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

10:04 AM: Resistance for Sensex is at 18885: Gaba Send to friends

9:56 AM: Crucial support for Sensex on the downside is at 18700: Gaba

9:52 AM: Buy Hindalco with a target of Rs 190 and stop loss of Rs 177, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18.

9:48 AM: Resistance for Nifty is at 5675: Gaba

9:44 AM: Crucial support on the downside for Nifty is at 5600: Gaba Send to friends

9:40 AM: Buy HUL with targets of Rs 288 and 293 and stop loss of Rs 272, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz.

9:36 AM: Strong IIP data has triggered some hectic buying in opening trades today.

The market could see a bout of profit taking later on in the session. One with a low appetite for risk would do well to have proper stop loss triggers in place.

9:28 AM: Buy GVK Power with a target of Rs 56 and stop loss of Rs 49, says Ashish Chaturmotha of Anand Rathi Securities on NDTV Profit

9:24 AM: Buoyed by strong industrial production numbers and a firm trend in global markets, stocks soared higher on the Indian bourses this morning.

The Sensex sailed past the 19,000 mark and is currently up 226 points or 1.2% at 19,025.

The Nifty, which vaulted to 5711.35, is up 65 points or 1.21% at 5705. Send to friends

9:20 AM: Buy Ruchira Papers with a target of Rs 24 and stop loss of Rs 20.75, says Arun Kejriwal, market analyst, on Zee Business

9:16 AM: Asian markets are trading in the positive zone this morning. The Hang Seng has gained 1.3% at 21,540. Nikkei has jumped 1% to 9,331

Source : sify.com

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