Markets ended in red for the third week in a row in the weekend following global worries on fiscal deficits of euro zone countries, continuous rise in food inflation and tepid response to NTPC FPO.
On the BSE, the Sensex shed 442 points to end below 16,000-level at 15,916 and the Nifty on the NSE closed 115 points lower at 4,767.
As expected market breadth continued to remain weak and jittery investors were seen cutting positions.
Sources suggest an aggressive policy action from the government to control inflation. The worst is over on inflation front.
Watch out for expectations over the Union Budget to spot likely beneficiary industries. Sources say stimulus packages will not be trimmed to a large extent and only minor tinkering is on cards. Weekend rebound in US markets from lower levels may trigger a relief rally from current levels.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 15,550 and 16,420 for the Sensex and 4,540 and 4,960 for the Nifty.
Experts do not expect the indices to breach the 200-day moving averages at 15,530 and 4,650 levels easily and expect a mild recovery rally from current levels. Avoid aggressive shorts at current levels. Initiate fresh positions if indices sustain above 16,300 and 4,840 levels on closing basis.
You cannot tell how expensive a stock is. A stock’s value is depends on its earnings — a Rs 100 stock can be cheap if the firm’s earnings prospects are high, while a Rs 10 stock can be expensive if earnings potential is dim.
Futures & Options
High intra-day volatility is back and becoming a way of life for derivatives traders.
Overall open interest has again crossed Rs 1 lakh crore mark to settle at Rs 1,09,000 crore on Friday. As expected Nifty holds top position with 66 per cent share of the total. Contrarians tip buying of Nifty4,900 call option for unexpected returns in pre-budget rally.
Jittery market players were seen unwinding positions in bank, auto, realty and metal stocks. Punters suggest buying in SAIL, Tata Steel, Unitech, DLF and Nalco for relief rally gains. Among the stock futures looking good in an otherwise weak market are Asian Paints, Tata Power, Opto Circuits, Triveni, Essar Oil, Cummins, Mphasis and Petronet.
Buy oil marketing companies — IOC, BPCL and MRPL — for surprising returns. Side counters such as HCC, Punj Lloyd, JP Hydro and CESC are witnessing accumulation from savvy players.
Buy HCC for a target price of Rs 150 in the settlement. For the pre-budget trading, punters expect action in fertiliser, capital goods and power stocks. Buy Tata Power, Reliance Power and CESC at current levels.
Fallout from the luke warm response to the FPO of NTPC likely to be short lived. Buy strong PSU counters in the current weakness. Punters tip Engineers India, Power Finance and REC for short term.
Investors need to have realistic expectations. When expectations are too high, it results in overtrading underfinanced positions and very high levels of greed and fear, which makes objective decision-making impossible.
Vishnu Chemicals has posted good turnaround results. For the last nine months, the company has clocked net profit of Rs 4.18 crore in comparison to a loss of Rs 5.85 crore in the previous fiscal. Vishnu Chemicals is a world class manufacturer of chrome chemicals and animal feed ingredients and has recently set up a new state of the art manufacturing and R&D facility at Visakhapatnam. Sources indicate that the production of some peptides has also started and the company has reportedly tied up some CRAMS deals also. High promoter equity at 75 per cent reflects the confidence of the promoters. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 150.
Auto ancillary Subros continued its good performance on the back of reviving demand from its key clients — Maruti and Tata Motors. Volume and value led growth clearly reflect that cool times are back for the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 100.
AP Paper is reaping the benefits of its recently concluded expansion. Bettering the industry margins, the company has reported an excellent nine month performance. Stay invested in the counter for a target price of Rs 150.
Infoedge is a leading prov-ider of online recruitment (naukri.com), matrimonial (Jeevansaathi.com), real estate (99acres.com) and related services in India. The company is aggressively expanding into education, professional networking and other related segments. Buy the company’s stock at the current levels for a target price of Rs 1,300 in the next couple of months.
C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.
Source : deccan.com
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