Technical Analysis - ONGC

It was a spectacular 8 per cent rally in ONGC last Friday that made the stock close well above the short-term resistance at Rs 820. Target of the third wave from Rs 637 trough gives us the next target at Rs 926. Fibonacci retracement of the long-term down-move gives the next target at Rs 962. 

In short, those holding long positions can allow their profits to run till the stock reaches the band between Rs 920 and Rs 962. A firm close below Rs 820 is required to mitigate this positive view. Short-term trend in ONGC is also positive. The strength in weekly and monthly oscillators indicates that this is one of the first pivotals to shake off the bear market blues. — 

Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline — Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline

Technical Analysis - Maruti

Maruti Suzuki continued to surge ahead; moving close to our first medium-term target at Rs 850. As explained in our last column, the stock is poised just above the upper boundary of its medium-term range that is at Rs 750. The medium-term view will remain positive as long as the stock holds above Rs 750. Subsequent targets are Rs 850 and Rs 950. The short-term view for Maruti Suzuki is also positive. The movement since March 13 resembles a running correction that occurs when the sentiment is very strong. The uptrend is well established by the strong break-out beyond the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 750. Next support is at Rs 715. — Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline

Technical Analysis - Infosys

Despite the wobble on Monday that made the stock decline to Rs 1,288, Infosys closed the week on a strong note with a 5 per cent weekly gain. Investors however need to tread carefully in the near-term since the stock is nearing the strong resistance zone around Rs 1,450 offered by the 200-day moving average and the November-2008 peak. Short-term traders can hold their long positions with a stop at Rs 1,340. Decline below will take the stock to Rs 1,288. The stock is currently pausing close to the upper boundary of our medium-term range that is at Rs 1,500. A strong break above this level will give the next target at Rs 1,580 and Rs 1,650 for Infosys. — Lokeshwarri S.K. businessline

Technical Analysis - SBI

Technical Analysis - SBI

It was a week of wild gyration for SBI. The stock plummeted below Rs 1,000 to Rs
980 before reversing sharply to close the week with a 2 per cent gain. The
bullish hammer in the weekly candlestick chart coming close on the heels of the
morning-star implies that buyers are eager to buy in declines. If the third leg
of the move from Rs 894 trough is unfolding currently, the targets for the stock
are Rs 1,220 and Rs 1,368. Investors with a medium term perspective can hold the
stock as long as it sustains above Rs 1,000.

Short-term resistance exists in the zone between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,220. Traders
can book partial profit as the stock approaches this band. Supports for the week
would be at Rs 1,098 and Rs 1,051.

— Lokeshwarri S.K.

businessline 06-03-09

Technical Analysis - Reliance Industries

RIL moved past our first medium-term target to record an intra-week peak at Rs 1,679. Next medium-term target for this stock is around Rs 1,825. The medium-term up trend from the March 6 trough can end here since it occurs at 38.2 per cent retracement of the entire down-move from the January 2008-peak. But if RIL gets past this level, the rally can go on to Rs 2,040. Investors should hold the stock with a stop at Rs 1,480. The short-term trend in RIL is up and the shallow corrections since the first week of March indicate a strong bullish undercurrent. Short-term resistances will be at Rs 1,752 and Rs 1,813. Short-term support would be at Rs 1,575 and Rs 1,497. Source : businessline

TA - Tata Steel

Tata Steel too began the week on a nervous note , declining to Rs 192. But the stock rallied thereafter to move higher towards the resistance at Rs 230. If the stock is unable to penetrate this level, it can reverse lower and head towards Rs 200 again. This sideways move will however be construed as a consolidation that can be followed by a break-out towards our medium term target at Rs 250. A close below Rs 190 is needed to mitigate the positive short-term view. The medium-term trend in the stock however continues to be sideways in the range between Rs 150 and Rs 250. As explained last week, the stock needs to record a strong break-out above Rs 250 to pave the way for a rally to Rs 345 or Rs 360. Source : businessline

Technical Analysis - ONGC

ONGC moved in line with our expectation, racing to the band between Rs 810 and Rs 820 and then turning hesitant at that level. As discussed in our last column, there are numerous hurdles in this band in the form of the long-term 200-day moving average, the target of the up-move that began from October 27 trough and the upper end of our medium-term trading range. A reversal from here can pull the stock lower to Rs 750 or Rs 708. Short-term traders can continue to buy in declines as long as the stock trades above the first support. The stock is currently at a key medium term resistance level. A close above this level can take ONGC to Rs 867 or Rs 950. Lokeshwarri S. K. businessline 29-03-09

Technical Analysis - Tata Steel

Tata Steel caught up with its large-cap peers towards the end of the week when
it moved above the resistance band between Rs 184 and Rs 190 on Thursday.

The strong volume accompanying this break-out is a positive signal. The stock
could head towards the upper boundary of the medium-term trading band at Rs 250.

We retain a neutral medium term view for this stock. But a strong break-out
above Rs 250 will give the next resistance in the band between Rs 345 and Rs
360.

Medium-term investors can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 175. Short-term
supports for the stock are at Rs 197 and Rs 187. Fresh longs should be avoided
on a decline below the first support.

Lokeshwarri S. K.
businessline 29-03-09

Technical Analysis - Reliance Ind

Reliance Industries surged strongly to a 15 per cent weekly gain, shattering the resistance at Rs 1,400 as well as Rs 1,500 with ease. The medium-term view has turned positive with the weekly close above Rs 1,500.

The sideways move between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,400 since October 2008 appears to be a terminal corrective. Medium-term targets for the stock have now been revised upwards to Rs 1,647 and Rs 1,820. Caveat: these targets are achievable only if the stock holds above Rs 1,500 over the next couple of weeks.

RIL paused just below its 200-day moving average on Friday. A correction can now ensue that takes the stock lower to Rs 1,400 or Rs 1,330. Traders should avoid fresh longs on a decline below Rs 1,380.

Lokeshwarri S. K.

TA - Maruti

Maruti Suzuki was part of the party in the large-cap stocks with a 7 per cent weekly gain.

The stock exceeded our outer short-term target by recording an intra-week peak at Rs 798.

As explained last week, the area around Rs 750 is a key medium term resistance as it forms the upper end of the stock’s medium term trading range.

If Maruti sustains above this level, subsequent medium term targets are Rs 850 and Rs 950.

The short-term view for the stock is also positive.

A close below Rs 750 will however roil this view.

Subsequent supports are Rs 700 and Rs 645.

Medium-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 600.

Lokeshwarri S. K.

businessline 29-03-09

Technical Analysis - Infosys

Infosys made a decisive move above the resistance at Rs 1,320 last Thursday and closed the week well above this mark.

As indicated last week, next medium-term target for the stock is Rs 1,457 which is the resistance offered by November 2008 peak.

The 200-day moving average present at Rs 1,430 is also a strong hurdle that the stock would have to grapple with in the near-term. Short-term traders can book partial profits as the stock nears the Rs 1,400 level and hold the rest with a stop at Rs 1,300.

The medium-term range for Infosys stays between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,500 and swing traders who have initiated longs close to the lower boundary should be alert as the stock nears the upper boundary of this range.

Lokeshwarri S. K.

Technical Analysis - SBI

SBI moved contrary to our expectation; surging beyond the resistance at Rs 1,000 to a weekly gain of Rs 172. As we have been reiterating in our past columns, the stock has strong long-term support around Rs 1,000 and the formation of a morning star pattern in the weekly chart denotes that a sustainable trough could be in place in this stock. Immediate targets for the stock are Rs 1,170 and then Rs 1,270. The long-term 200-day moving average present at the second resistance will be the key resistance for the medium term.

The short-term view for the stock is positive since it recorded a strong close on Friday. Supports for the week would be at Rs 1,060 and Rs 1,040. Short-term traders can play long till SBI trades above the first support.

Lokeshwarri S. K.