Closing Bell 27 April 2009

Closing Bell 27 April 2009

The Indian indices managed to end the day marginally above the dotted line as buying activity led the indices to pare off losses during the final trading session. The BSE-Sensex ended the day with gains of around 40 points. However, the NSE-Nifty closed lower by about 10 points. Stocks from the mid-cap and small-cap space however, ended the day on a negative note, lower by 0.4% and 1% respectively. Barring stocks from the banking and capital goods space, selling activity was witnessed in stocks across sectors. The realty and power sector stocks remained the top losers of the day. At the time of closing, the overall decline to advance ratio was poised at 1.2 to 1 on the BSE.

Other Asian markets ended the day on a mixed note. The European indices are currently trading weak. Rupee was trading at 50.12 against the US dollar at the time of writing.

Petronet LNG announced its FY09 results today. The company recorded a strong topline growth of 29% YoY during the year. Sales were higher on the back of better realisations and rupee depreciation. However, on account of a 32% YoY increase in expenses, the company's operating profits grew by a mere 4% YoY. Its operating margins declined to 10.7% from 13.2% last year. Profitability wise, the company recorded a 9% YoY growth in earnings. This is higher as compared to the operating profits on account of higher other income, which grew by 43% YoY. For 4QFY09, Petronet LNG's topline grew by 52% YoY, while its bottom line surged by 70% YoY. The stock along with its peers, GAIL and IGL, ended the day on a weak note.

Pharma stocks ended the day on a mixed note. While Dr. Reddy's and Lupin ended on a firm note, Wockhardt and Ranbaxy ended the day in the red. As per reports on BSE, Glenmark Pharma's US subsidiary Glenmark Generics, has received a tentative approval from the US FDA for marketing the generic version of the cholesterol-lowering drug 'Ezetimibe'. The company has received approval for selling the 10 mg tablet of this drug. 'Ezetimibe' is the generic version of Schering Plough and MSP Singapore Company LLC`s drug 'Zetia'. However, the company will be able to launch the drug only on receiving final approval from the US FDA. The launch is also subject to the resolution of litigation currently pending in the US courts. Once the approval is received, Glenmark will be able to exclusively market the drug for 180 days. 'Zetia' had garnered sales of US$ 1.5 bn during CY08.

Oil consumption figures for FY09 have been published. With the decline in India's GDP growth rate, crude oil imports and domestic off take of refined products have recorded the lowest growth in the last three years. As far as the future is concerned, it is believed that in the short term the election vehicles will help diesel consumption, while the Nano will increase demand over the long term. We believe that the long term trend in oil consumption in India is only going to be upwards given that the carbon footprint of an average Indian continues to be one of the lowest in the world.

The Indian markets gained ground during the previous two hours of trade as buying was witnessed at lower levels. While banking, telecom and engineering stocks are leading the pack of gainers, select pharma and power stocks are trading weak on the bourses currently. The overall advance to decline ratio is poised at 1.9 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE-Sensex and NSE-Nifty indices are trading firm, up by around 125 points and 30 points respectively. The BSE-Midcap and BSE-Smallcap indices are also trading firm, up by 1.3% each. The rupee is trading at 49.98 to the dollar.

FMCG stocks are trading mixed. GSK consumer is trading firm, while Dabur India is trading weak currently. As per a leading business daily, Dabur India is planning to enter the apple soft drink market during the current month. The present rivals in the category include Coca-Cola's Fanta Apple and Parle Agro's Appy. The new launch is a part of Dabur's plans to enter the non-cola soft drink market, which is reporting a 30% YoY. Dabur hold 52% market share in the packaged fruit juice market, but is not present in the plain beverage segment. With this new launch, the company is hoping to address this big gap in its portfolio and also enter the low-priced beverage market. On account of rising health awareness among the consumers, the juice and juice-drinks market is witnessing strong demand. Currently pegged yearly at Rs 15 bn, the segment earns higher profitability than the carbonated drinks.

Textile stocks are also trading mixed currently. While Bombay Dyeing and Welspun India are trading firm, Raymond is trading in the red. Raymond had announced its 4QFY09 and FY09 results last weekend. The company's sales grew marginally by 4% YoY during FY09, while the topline declined by 18% YoY during 4QFY09. The company's full year operating margins have improved by 1.7% YoY to 8.6% due to higher realisations in the worsted fabric business. However, due to higher interest costs and a loss on foreign currency borrowing drained Raymaond's full year bottomline, which recorded a loss of Rs 2.7 bn compared to profit of Rs 662 m a year earlier. On account of loss during FY09, the company has not declared any dividends, barring record of continuous dividend payments during the earlier years.

The markets witnessed intense volatility during the previous hour of trade on account of alternate bouts of buying and selling activity. Currently, stocks from the banking, software and metal sectors are leading the pack of gainers, while select stocks from the pharma, power and energy sectors are trading lower. The overall decline to advance ratio is poised evenly on the BSE.

The BSE-Sensex and NSE-Nifty indices are trading lower, down by around 10 points and 20 points respectively. The BSE-Midcap and BSE-Smallcap indices are also trading lower by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. The rupee is trading at 50.08 to the dollar.

Software stocks are trading mixed. While TCS and Wipro are trading higher, Infosys is trading lower. As per a leading business daily, India's largest IT company TCS plans to relocate its staff abroad to India in order to cut down its costs. TCS follows an onsite-offshore model and plans to do more work in India as it helps in saving costs and increasing efficiency. However, the company would continue to do work onshore. The relocation does not mean that it is winding up its operations abroad. It may be noted that during 4QFY09, the company brought back some of its US staff to India which resulted in savings of Rs 1.2 bn. The company also plans to hire around 24,855 people in India.

Compiled and Brought to you by 

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com

Follow - www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor 

BSE / NSE Shares Analysis for 27th April 2009

BSE / NSE Shares Analysis for 27th April 2009

After a weak start, the market rebounded into the positive territory but ended flat amid high volatility today.The negative trend on the Asian and European bourses following the outbreak of swine flu did weigh in to an extent, but the slide was not significantly sharp.  The Sensex ended at 11,363.72 (provisional) with a gain of 34.67 points or 0.31%.  The barometer hit a high of 11,492.10 today.  The Nifty closed at 3469.05, down 11.70 points or 0.34%.

Bank, capital goods and pharma stocks moved higher.  IT stocks found some support in afternoon trade.  FMCG, oil and auto stocks displayed a mixed trend.  Realty, power and metal stocks declined.

ICICI Bank, Wipro, Jaiprakash Associates, Axis Bank, Sterlite Industries, TCS, Ambuja Cements, Sun Pharma and L&T closed on a firm note.  BHEL, M&M, ITC and Maruti Suzki also posted sharp gains.  Ranbaxy, Reliance Infra, RComm, HUL, SBI, Tata Power, Tata Steel, ACC, Tata Motors, Hindalco and ONGC ended with sharp losses.

Midcap and smallcap stocks attracted profit taking.  The market breadth was marginally negative at close.

Jaiprakash Associates Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 385.32 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 210.41 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 1345.28 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 2194.57 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.  The stock has gained over 5% to Rs 132.25 now and a further upmove looks very likely in the near run.

Bank, capital goods and pharma stocks have outperformed today. Though Asian and European markets exhibited weakness today following the outbreak of swine flu, Indian stocks have fared reasonably well.  Hectic action in the derivatives segment ahead of April series expiry has rendered the market quite volatile.

One holding quality bank and capital good stocks can stay invested.

Idea Cellular (Rs 61.50) looks set for a sharp rise over a medium term.  One holding the stock can continue to do so and buy more of it in case of declines.  A rise to Rs 75 - 78 looks quite likely. One can book some profit at those levels and re-enter later at declines.

Oriental Bank of Commerce has posted a net profit of Rs 1958.20 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. Total Income has increased from Rs 20710.10 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 26893.80 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.  The bank had recorded a net loss of 994.40 million in the January - March 2008 quarter.  The stock is down with a marginal loss at Rs 135.65. Investors looking for some sharp gains over a short run, can try this stock at current levels.

Investors holding Bank Baroda, Bank of India, Indian Bank and IOB can continue to hold them for decent gains over a short run.  One with a good appetite for risk can buy these stocks even at current levels.  However, considering the possibility of some strong correction after recent impressive rally, it is advisable to restrict fresh buying to modest levels.

Despite the company posting strong results, the Petronet LNG stock is struggling for support today.  The stock, currently traded at Rs 52.55, touched a high of Rs 54.90 earlier in the day.  Investors holding the stock with a long term view, can continue to stay invested and look at buying more at declines.  For now, a stop loss can be placed at Rs 30, near the stock's 52 week low.

Global cues are weak and the Indian market, which had a good run in the positive zone earlier in the day, has drifted down now.  Due to short-covering ahead of April series derivatives expiry, some front line stocks may bounce back and score sharp gains.  But, investors looking for fresh exposure would do well to wait for now.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited has announced that the company's subsidiary has received tentative approval from US-FDA for cholesterol-lowering agent Ezetimibe.  At Rs 196.25, the pharma stock is down marginally from its previous closing mark.  

One looking at long term can stay invested in the stock. More quantities can be added at declines.

Indian Bank's net profit for the January - March2009 quarter rose to Rs 3940.738 million.  The bank had posted a net profit of Rs 2416.686 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 16728.474 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 21484.794 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

Bank Baroda has posted a net profit of Rs 7526.90 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 2764.40 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 38857.00 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 49924.10 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.  Indian Bank and Bank of Baroda stocks are up by 5.5% and 6% at Rs 123.50 and Rs 323 respectively.

Exide Industries Limited has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 682.00 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 628.20 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008.  Total Income has increased from Rs 7963.60 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 8011.30 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.  The stock, which opened on a positive note and remained rangebound fill a few minutes to noon, has rallied sharply to Rs 56.25 now, recording a handsome gain of 6.55%.

HDFC (Rs 1820) is a good stock to own.  The stock had hit a low of Rs 1116 in early March this year and a has come a long way off that mark now.  Further upside looks very likely in the near to medium term. Still, a few weak spells are not ruled out.

One looking at fresh exposure to the counter, can try it at Rs 1700 levels.

Fulford India has raised Rs 40.25 crores by issuing 7,00,000 Equity shares of Rs 10/- each at a premium of Rs 565/- per share, to its promoters Dashtag.  The funds were raised to provide capital in order to permit the Company to strengthen its position in the market and act on strategic business growth opportunities.  The stock is down nearly 2% at Rs 170 at present.

One can stay invested in infrastructure stocks Gammon India, IVRCL Infra and GMR Infrastructure for solid gains over a medium run.  One with a good appetite for risk can go in for these stocks even at their current levels.  

Research wings of some leading brokerage houses are maintaining a buy rating on Hero Honda.  The stock, according to many of these research units, can be accumulated at declines.  At present, the Hero Honda stock is traded at Rs 1126. A rise of 15% - 20% looks likely from here.

Cipla (up 5.5% at Rs 252.50) can give decent returns over a short to medium run.  The stock has moved up sharply on strong quarterly results, but some weakness is not ruled out in coming sessions.  One holding the stock can stay invested. Those looking at fresh exposure, can enter the counter at declines.

Stock prices tumbled in early trade on the major Indian bourses this morning as weak cues from Asian markets prompted a sell-off.  The Sensex opened with a negative gap of nearly 100 points at 11,237 and slipped to 11,181.  At present, the barometer is down 133 points or 1.18% at 11,196.

Compiled and Brought to you by 

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com

Follow - www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor 

Market Voices 27th April 2009

Market Voices 27th April 2009

The Indian market outperformed its global peers and ended flat masking a choppy session of trade. The weak global cues were on account of the swine flu pandemic scare across Asia. Sensex shut shop at 11371, up 42 points and Nifty at 3470, down 10 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.42% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.01%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 496 against declines of 717 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Sterlite Industries while losers were Ranbaxy, Reliance Capital and Unitech. 

Goldman Sachs upgrades ICICI Bank from neutral to buy with a target of Rs 530, reports NDTV Profit. CLSA has a target for the stock at Rs 538 and Morgan Stanley has a target price on the same at Rs 570.  Hold ICICI Bank, if it is able to cross Rs 475 then its next target is Rs 535, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 469, up 8.6% on the BSE.

Despite weak global cues because of the swine flu scare, our market closed flat, easily outperforming global markets that showed clear weakness, says Seshadri Sen of Macquarie Research on CNBC Awaaz. If global cues are favourable tomorrow, there could be some bounce in our market, he adds. His top picks for more upside then are Axis Bank, RIL and Bharti Airtel. 

The correction in the market today could be attributed to profit booking, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The market has entered a consolidation phase and this is a buy on dips market, he adds. Buy DLF and Unitech as they have more upside in the near term, he feels. 

It was a volatile session but our market outperformed its global peers and ended flat. Sensex closed at 11363, up 34 points (provisional) and Nifty at 3469, down 11 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.42% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.14%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 489 against declines of 718 on the NSE.  

Nifty has strong resistance at 3508-3540, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18, as closing market strategy. Nifty may drift lower to retest 3260-3320 levels and one can buy on these declines, he adds. Hold Nifty long positions with a target of 3473-3496 and stop loss above 3395, says Rajat Bose, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz, as closing market strategy.  

Book profits at current levels, says stockmechanics.com, on CNBC Awaaz, as closing market strategy. Buy Nifty longs if it closes above 3520. 

Hold Petronet LNG with a target of Rs 64 and it has strong support at Rs 42-44, says Anu Jain, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 52, down 1.4% on the BSE.

Nifty has stiff resistance at 3500-3550 and now is likely to be in a range of 3300 on the downside and 3500 on upside, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Take partial profits at higher levels and one can go long only after Nifty corrects to 3300, he adds. 

Despite weak global cues (on account of swine flu scare in South East Asia) our market has been able to outperform and has not fallen sharply. Sensex is trading at 11362, up 33 points and Nifty is at 3471, down 10 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 0.45% and BSE Smallcap index is down 1.06%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 486 against declines of 715 on the NSE. 

Hold Patel Engineering with a target of Rs 190 after which it could see a good upmove, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 175, up 2.9% on the BSE. 

Hold Indiabulls Real Estate as it will be in a range of Rs 125 on the lower side and Rs 175 in the higher side, says Hardik Jain of ISJ Securities, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock has support at Rs 120-125, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 128, down 13% on the BSE. 

Buy Bajaj Hindustan with a target of Rs 80-120-140, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 74, down 2.5% on the BSE.  

Buy Ashok Leyland on dips for a target of Rs 27 in the long term, says Vaishali Jaju of Angel Broking on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 21, down 4.2% on the BSE. 

Bonanza Portfolio maintains a buy call on NTPC with a target of Rs 196 and stop loss of Rs 190, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 189, down 1.5% on the BSE.

Hold Dr Reddy's with a target of Rs 560-575 and keep a stop loss of Rs 520, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 554, up 0.42% on the BSE. 

European markets continue to be under pressure. Weak global cues see our market trade under pressure as they try to recover. Sensex is trading at 11267, down 61 points and Nifty is at 3438, down 10 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 0.1% and BSE Smallcap index is down 0.7%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 505 against declines of 685 on the NSE.  

Bonanza Portfolio maintains a buy call on ONGC with a target of Rs 880 and stop loss of Rs 850, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 852, down 0.41% on the BSE. 

Buy Cairn India around Rs 165 with a target of Rs 220, says Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 188, down 2.3% on the BSE.

Hold GSPL with a target of Rs 48-50 then it can go to Rs 60 and keep a stop loss of Rs 31, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 41, down 0.24% on the BSE. 

Buy Idea Cellular with a target of Rs 78-80, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 61, up 1% on the BSE. 

Buy Maruti Suzuki with a target of Rs 850, says Mitesh Thakkar, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 798, down 0.52% on the BSE. 

Buy Tanla Solutions with a target of Rs 80 in 12 months, says DD Sharma of Anand Rathi Securities on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 48, down 9.7% on the BSE.

The current rally in the market seems extended and the extent of gains seem surprising, says Raamdeo Agarwal, MD, Motilal Oswal Securities, on CNBC TV18. This is a good time to build portfolios for the serious investors in bluechip companies as valuations are not extended after the recent rally, he adds. 

The Asian markets are trading down and European markets have opened under pressure suffering from the outbreak of swine flu. Our market is trading choppy. Sensex is trading at 11332, up 3 points and Nifty is at 3464, down 16 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 0.25% and BSE Smallcap index is down 0.05%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 594 against declines of 584 on the NSE. 

Hold Balrampur Chini with target of Rs 90 in 3-6 months, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 69.40, down 3.1% on the BSE. 

Buy Cipla for long-term, says Hemen Kapadia, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 231 and resistance at Rs 268, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 246, up 2.8% on the BSE. 

Hold HCL Technologies and exit when it reaches Rs 145 and switch to some other frontline IT counter, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 110, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 127.35, up 0.5% on the BSE. 

Book profit in Maruti at Rs 800 or above, says Paras Bothra of Ashika Stock Broking on NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 797.40, down 0.6% on the BSE 

Buy Cipla on dips, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has broken out of a very long base and promises a lot more excitement, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 246.85, up 3.1% on the BSE.  

Buy Aban Offshore at Rs 350 with long-term target of Rs 600-849, says Hitendra Vasudev, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 497, up 2.2% on the BSE. 

Hold ICICI Bank with target of Rs 500-520, says Hemen Kapadia, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 407 and resistance at Rs 450, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 458.30, up 6% on the BSE.

The markets are still in the middle of a bear market rally, says Hans Goetti of LGT Bank on CNBC TV18. He adds that he wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow Jones at 9500 in the middle of this year and according to him, there might be positive surprises on the gross domestic product (GDP) front by the end of 2009. Commenting on the elections, he feels that a Congress-led or BJP-led government will be fine for the Indian markets. 

Buy Reliance Industries with target of Rs 1850-1860, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 1750, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1796.30, up 0.7% on the BSE. 

The market at noon makes good recovery and is at the day's high. Sensex is trading at 11415, up 86 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 3497, up 16 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1.6% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.3%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 824 against declines of 334 on the NSE. 

Avoid Unitech, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It is behaving like Satyam, going up and down, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 46.25, up 2.7% on the BSE. 

Buy Balaji Telefilms with target of Rs 60, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 40, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 45.05, down 1.4% on the BSE. 

Buy Punj Lloyd at current levels with short-term target of Rs 135-140 and medium-term target of Rs 150, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 100, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 119.40, up 2.8% on the BSE. 

Sell JP Associates on rally, says Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financials on CNBC Awaaz. Avoid any fresh investment because there is not much good news in this stock, he adds. It is currently trading at Rs 129.30, 2.8% on the BSE. 

Hold Sterlite Industries with target of Rs 480-525 in 6-8 months, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 350, he adds. Add more when it cross its resistance of Rs 420, he says. The stock is currently trading at Rs 414.95, up 4.3% on the BSE. 

Hold HDFC with target of Rs 2100-2150, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 1700, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1824, up 1.1% on the BSE. 

Buy JP Associates on dips, says Pankaj Jain of Satguru Capital on Zee Business. But do not sell on rally, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 129.30, up 2.8% on the BSE.

Buy Ranbaxy at around Rs 140-150, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 167.70, down 4.5% on the BSE.  

An hour into opening, the market appears to be making some recovery after a flat opening. The Asian markets continue to trade weak. Sensex is trading at 11372, up 43 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 3483, up 2.7 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1.1% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.4%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 766 against declines of 332 on the NSE.  

Buy Adlabs Films with target of Rs 266-285 within a week or even sooner, says Rajat Bose, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 237.80, up 0.7% on the BSE. 

Buy Binani Cement with intra-day target of Rs 46, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 38, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 42.20, up 3% on the BSE. 

Do not buy Essar Oil at current levels or even on a small dip, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Avoid this stock completely, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 167.60, down 0.3% on the BSE. 

Buy Federal Bank with medium-term target of Rs 200, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 173.50, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 187.90, up 5.6% on the BSE. 

Buy Tata Motors at Rs 253 with target of Rs 263, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 245, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 254, up 0.6% on the BSE. 

Buy SREI Infrastructure with intra-day target of Rs 45, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 39.50, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 41.65, up 2.3% on the BSE. 

Buy ICICI Bank at Rs 434 with target of Rs 450, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 422, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 444, up 2.7% on the BSE. 

Buy Lanco Infratech with targets of Rs 285 and then Rs 307-310, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 210, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 243.60, up 1.1% on the BSE.

The market opens in the red as expected, in the steps of negative Asian cues. Over the weekend, the US markets did close on a higher note but the Asian markets are trading weak this morning. Sensex is trading at 11306, down 23 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 3468, down 11 points. CNX Midcap index is down 0.02% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.3%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 240 against declines of 292 on the NSE. 

The market could be volatile ahead of the expiry, says Amitabh Chakraborty of Religare Securities on CNBC TV18. He reckons that the Nifty could end this series between 3400-3500. The Q4 results till now have been better than expectations, he adds.  

The Nifty on Friday closed on a positive note, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He sees support for it at 3400-3440 and resistance at 3550. He believes that if it crosses the resistance level then it might go up to 3800 levels.  Rollovers are expected to pick up, says Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking on CNBC TV18. The 3300 Put has seen a mix of buying and selling while unwinding is likely at 3500, he adds. He believes that the Nifty may expire around this level.  » Send to friends

Compiled and Brought to you by 

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com

Follow - www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor 

Market Voices 22 April 2009

The market ended flat after having struggled in the last couple of hours of trade. All major indices witnessed profit booking. The market was reacting negatively to news of SEBI excluding 50 stocks from the F&O and there was also reaction to some Q4 results announced today. Sensex shut shop at 10817, down 80 points and Nifty at 3330, down 35 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.6%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 426 against declines of 791 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Suzlon Energy, Reliance Power and ACC while losers included HCL Technologies, Unitech and ABB.

Book profits in Dewan Housing from current levels to Rs 95, says Hitendra Vasudev, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is at Rs 79.20, up 4.6% on the BSE. 

Hem Securities maintains a buy call on Tata Tea with target of Rs 820, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is at Rs 688.20, up 0.04% on the BSE. 

Exit Tata Steel, Hindalco, Sail at current levels and wait for deeper corrections, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. 

Hold Essel Propack with short-term stop loss of Rs 14.50, says Hitendra Vasudev, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. It has resistance at Rs 17-20, he says. The stock is at Rs 16.38, up 9.5% on the BSE.

The Indian market ended flat amid uncertainity and volatility. Sensex closed at 10821, down 77 points (provisional) and Nifty at 3334, down 30 points (provisional) from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1% and BSE Smallcap index was down 1.6%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 445 against declines of 772 on the NSE.  

Buy Nifty April 3300 Call with stop loss of 20 points, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical anlayst, on CNBC TV18, as market closing strategy. 

Close all long positions and look at 3250 as support, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical anlayst, on CNBC TV18, as market closing strategy.

Hold Noida Toll Bridge with stop loss of Rs 25, says Hitendra Vasudev, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Short-term traders may book profits, he adds. It has resistance at Rs 32, he says. The stock is currently trading at Rs 28.10, down 10.7% on the BSE. 

If the Nifty level of 3300 breaks down then there is strong support at 3250-3150, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. He expects the market to remain flat for the next few days before making a further move. 

The market appears to be struggling again, witnessing a fall in all major sectors. Sensex is trading at 10800, down 98 points and Nifty is at 3323, down 46 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 1.5% and BSE Smallcap index is down 1.9%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 403 against declines of 805 on the NSE.

Hold Pantaloon with stop loss of Rs 160, says Hitendra Vasudev, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. It has resistance at Rs 208 crossing which it might go up to Rs 245, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 184.75, up 3.2% on the 

Hold Suzlon Energy with targets of Rs 63 and then Rs 72, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss below Rs 52, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 60.50, up 5.3% on the 

The stimulus packages and the policy action taken by various central banks have finally begun kicking in and helped in boosting the markets, says KN Vaidyanathan of Alchemy Capital Management on CNBC TV18. However, he does not see too much of an upside and expects the rally to cap at 3800 on the Nifty and 12000 on the Sensex.

Buy PFC on dips and hold for long term, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 153.15, down 0.7% on the 

Traders should avoid fresh positions in stocks that have been excluded from F&O by SEBI, says Askhita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. There is volatility in these stocks and buying should be only after they come out of expiry, she 

Buy Idea Cellular on dips with stop loss below Rs 51, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 56.30, down 3.6% on the 

Buy Suzlon Energy with long-term view, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. It has strong resistance at Rs 77-75, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 60, up 4.4% on the 

Sell Alok Industries, says SP Tulsian, investment advisor, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 13.50, down 6.4% on the BSE. 

The market appears to be making some recovery from the day's low amid volatility. The European markets are now trading mixed. Sensex is trading at 10781, down 116 points and Nifty is at 3319, down 45 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 0.8% and BSE Smallcap index is down 1.4%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 451 against declines of 744 on the NSE. 

Hold Sterlite Industries with stop loss of Rs 370, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 376, down 1.7% on the BSE.

The exclusion of 50 stocks from F&O is a step in the right direction as it will reduce speculation and encourage cash buying, says Dipan Mehta, member of BSE & NSE, on CNBC TV18. He feels that there may be short-term pressure due to unwinding of leveraged positions. He advises avoiding volatile counters like Akruti in future. He expects the Nifty to break out of the 3300-3350 range closer to the 

Sell Rolta India at around Rs 100, says SP Tulsian, investment advisor, on CNBC TV18. Buy again at Rs 80-85, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 88.75, down 13.4% on the 

Buy BHEL with target of Rs 1750, says Bharat Dalal of Dawnay Day AV Financial Services on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 1590, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1591.90, down 3.2% on the BSE. 

Buy Edelweiss Capital around Rs 250 with targets of Rs 330 and then Rs 415-420, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 286, down 5.3% on the BSE. 

The market is likely to be range-bound and I expect some consolidation after the recent rally, says Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS on CNBC TV18. He sees the Nifty between 3100-3500 till elections. 

Buy Hindalco with target of Rs 65-68, says Bharat Dalal of Dawnay Day AV Financial Services on NDTV Profit. It has support at Rs 52, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 54.15, down 2.6% on the 

The market is trading near the day's low. Traders appear to be avoiding long positions awaiting Q4 results from index heavyweights. Banking and power stocks seem to be pulling the market down. The European markets have opened in the red and the Asian markets are trading mixed. Sensex is trading at 10772, down 126 points and Nifty is at 3317, down 48 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 1.2% and BSE Smallcap index is down 2%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 400 against declines of 772 on the NSE. 

Buy Wipro with a target of Rs 311-325 where one can exit and keep a stop loss of Rs 272, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 277, up 1.2% on the BSE. 

Buy Yes Bank with a target of Rs 100-150 where one can exit and keep a stop loss of Rs 50, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 80, up 1% on the 

Buy ICICI Bank with a target of Rs 455 and stop loss of Rs 385, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 398, down 0.15% on the 

Buy Idea Cellular with a target of Rs 67-68 and keep a stop loss of Rs 53, says Rahul Mohindar, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 57, down 2.4% on the BSE.

Buy Hindustan Zinc with a target of Rs 540 where one can exit and keep a stop loss of Rs 480, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 487, down 0.25% on the 

Buy SBI, Infosys, L&T and Tata Steel on any dips as these are top large cap picks for good long-term gains, says Ashish Kapur of Invest Shoppe on NDTV Profit. 

Nifty range for now seems 3300 on the downside and 3500 on the upside, says Ashu Bagri, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. His top picks if Nifty runs are ACC and BPCL. 

SMC Global Securities maintains a buy call on NDTV with a target of Rs 132 and stop loss of Rs 104, reports CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 111, down 0.8% on the 

Buy Marico with a target of Rs 75, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 64, up 0.7% on the BSE. 

The market is seeing some choppiness in trade at noon. Sensex is trading at 10909, up 11 points and Nifty is at 3355, down 10 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 0.54% and BSE Smallcap index is down 0.28%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 637 against declines of 503 on the NSE.

Buy Punj Lloyd on dips around Rs 100 as it has an excellent long-term upside potential, says SP Tulsian, market expert, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 106, up 3.3% on the BSE. 

Hold Indian Hotels with a target of Rs 65-75 where one can book profits, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 51, up 2.5% on the BSE. 

Hold Rolta with a target of Rs 137 and it has support at Rs 95, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 96, down 5.3% on the BSE. 

The unemployment situation in the US may get worse, says Cantor Fitzgerald Services on NDTV Profit. As per IMF over $4 trillion in credit related writedowns are expected. The outcome of stress tests remain key trigger and credit quality is likely to deteriorate. 

The market is likely to remain volatile until outcome of elections is clear, says Ved Prakash Chaturvedi of Tata Mutual Fund, on NDTV Profit. The Q4 corporate earnings and guidance will impact the market, he says. There are early signs of return of confidence to emerging markets, including India, he adds. 

It is difficult to say which direction the market is likely to go now unless Nifty breaks below 3300 or goes past 3500 decisively, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Overall the market is likely to consolidate for some time and then an upside looks possible, he adds. 

The market continues to trade firm. Sensex is trading at 10997, up 100 points and Nifty is at 3387, up 22 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 1.89% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.58%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 865 against declines of 248 on the 

Buy HCL Technologies with a target of Rs 144, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 131, down 4.5% on the BSE. 

Buy GMR Infra around Rs 90 with a target of Rs 145 where one can book profits and keep a stop loss of Rs 75, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 122, up 4.03% on the BSE. 

Buy IDFC with a target of Rs 105-110, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 78, up 3.6% on the BSE.  

Hold Opto Circuits with a target of Rs 130 then it can go to Rs 162 and keep a stop loss of Rs 104-99, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 115, up 1.14% on the BSE.

Buy Karur Vysa Bank with a target of Rs 272, says E Mathew, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 246, down 4.2% on the BSE. 

Buy Tech Mahindra on dips with a target of Rs 327-361 and it has support at Rs 295, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 320, up 0.6% on the BSE. 

Wipro comes out with its Q4 results, posts revenues up 13% at Rs 6482 crore versus Rs 5732 crore (YoY) and net profit up 15% at Rs 1010 crore versus Rs 880 crore (YoY), reports NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 290, up 5.8% on the BSE.  

Sell TCS with a target of Rs 535 and stop loss of Rs 557, says PK Agarwal of Bonanza Portfolio, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 544, down 1.23% on the BSE. 

Buy GMR Infra with a target of Rs 140 and stop loss of Rs 110, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 120, up 2.1% on the 

The pullback in the US market helps the Indian market make a reasonable start. Sensex is trading at 10956, up 58 points and Nifty is at 3372, up 7 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 1.49% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.12%. 

Flat to positive opening expected for the market, says Pankaj Jain of ICICI Securities, on NDTV Profit. Sensex below 10900 may correct to 10719 in the near term, he adds. Sensex range seen around 10900-11300, he adds. 

SEBI comes out with new criteria for F&O stock selection and excludes 50 stocks with immediate effect, reports NDTV Profit.  » Send to friends  Nifty has been trading volatile for past few days, says Anu Jain, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Nifty still has a stiff challenge to break past 3400, she adds. 

The market is likely to be flat for the next few days as Nifty has strong support around 3300-3250, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Now the market is likely to be in a cyclical bull market that can take Nifty up to 3800-4200 and cyclical bear market that can take it lower, he feels. 

Today Nifty is likely to bounceback from lower levels of 3250, says Rahul Mohindar, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. So buy on declines and hold for a couple of days, he adds. Buy SBI around Rs 1240 with a target of Rs 1320 over 1-2 weeks, he adds.

Compiled and Brought to you by 

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -

Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting

Bangalore India

Read - www.intelligentinvestor1.blogspot.com

Follow - www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

Closing Bell 26-02-09

After opening the day on a weak note, the Indian indices languished in the red thereafter. However post the morning session, markets gained momentum as buying activity intensified. During the final hour of trade the markets managed rise above the dotted line and end the day on a positive note. The Sensex closed higher by around 50 points, while the Nifty closed higher by around 30 points. Stocks from the BSE Midcap index ended the day on a positive note, while stocks forming part of the BSE Smallcap index ended the day on a weak note. Further, stocks from the auto and energy space led the pack of gainers, while stocks from the banking and realty led the pack of losers. Rupee closed at 50.3 against the US dollar. The Asian markets ended on a mixed note today. The European indices are currently trading mixed.

Inflation for the week ending February 14 has further fallen to 3.36% as compared to 3.92% in the week ending February 7. The numbers are lower due to price cuts in fuel, primary articles and the manufactured goods. With inflation within the RBI’s comfort zone, the possibility of cut in key rates is high.

Auto stocks ended the day on a positive note led by Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland and Bajaj Auto. The stock of Tata Motors ended the day on a positive note on news of it announcing the official launch date of the much awaited ‘Nano’. As per a leading business daily, the Rs 100,000 car is to be officially launched on 23rd March. Subsequently, the car is expected to be displayed in stores from the first week of April and bookings are expected to begin thereafter. The booking process and other details will be announced on 23rd March. As per a statement by the company, it is making arrangements for the widest possible network to book the car. In addition, the company also launched a new car recently. It is called the ‘Xenon XT’, which is a lifestyle pickup truck. In addition, the company also has other launches lined up including a utility vehicle, which would be on a brand new platform.

The job situation in international markets seems to be worsening. As per a leading business daily, about 20,000 Indians have returned home after losing their jobs overseas due to the global economic crisis.

The management of Piramal Healthcare has clarified the news item reported in the business daily regarding French major Sanofi-Aventis offering the highest price to buy a substantial stake in Piramal Healthcare. However, as per the management, it has no intention to dilute current ownership levels.

The Union Cabinet has today approved a hike in the dearness allowance by 6%. The new rate of 22% will be applicable from January this year. This is likely benefit 5 m employees and nearly 4 m pensioners. The additional spending would amount to Rs 60 bn. It may be noted that this would further impact government’s deficit which has already mounted on account of various stimulus packages announced recently.

Though the markets continued to trade in the negative territory during the previous two hours of trade, they managed to shed some of their earlier losses. Stocks from the pharma, banking and energy sectors are leading the pack of losers, while select stocks from the auto, telecom and software sectors are trading higher. The overall decline to advance ratio is poised at 1.5 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE-Sensex and NSE-Nifty are trading lower, down by almost 35 points and 6 points respectively. The BSE-Midcap and BSE-Smallcap indices are trading flat. The rupee is trading at 50.27 to the dollar.

Media stocks are trading mixed. Zee Entertainment, Sun TV and Dish TV are trading higher, while Network 18 and NDTV are trading lower. As per a leading business daily, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has recommended that broadcasters should not be allowed to control more than 20% equity stake in any distribution platform and vice versa. Platforms include cable, DTH, headend in the sky (HITS) and mobile TV. 

Companies which already have such cross-media control have been given three years to restructure their operations. It may be noted that many large media players like Sun TV and the Zee group would have to restructure their operations as they have presence in both the segments. While the recommendation is not yet binding, it will have a negative impact on cross-media broadcasters. In fact, the broadcasters have been trying to build economies of scale through their distribution presence in the face of fragmented viewership patterns.

Software stocks are trading mixed. TCS and Infosys are trading higher, while Wipro is trading lower. TCS has received a contract from Singapore Airlines to provide IT services for three years. It may be noted that TCS was finalised after a fresh round of selection from prospective vendors. TCS has been providing IT services to Singapore Airlines for the past twelve years. In fact, TCS and Singapore Airlines had set up a joint venture company in the early 90’s, which was later acquired and integrated into TCS in 2006. The travel and transportation sector contributed around 4% of the total revenues of TCS in FY08 and is emerging as a key business vertical. As such, retention of Singapore Airlines bodes well for the company.

Bought to you by

Intelligent Investor

Investment Advisory division of

Ravina Consulting

No.429 Mahavir Tuscan

Hoodi Circle, Whitefield

Mahadevapura Post

BANGALORE 560048

Mobile 9880080321

www.ravinaconsultants.com

Follow www.twitter.com/SmartInvestor

Share Recommendation - Reliance Communication Buy

Reliance Communications: Buy at...K. Venkatasubamanian  

Investors with a two-three year horizon can consider buying the share of Reliance Communications (RComm), going by its pan-India dual-technology mobile play and the strength in its enterprise division, both of which offer long-term growth prospects.

At Rs 155, the stock is available at a reasonable seven times its likely 2008-09 per share earnings.

RComm has been in a heavy capex phase for the last one year, leading to its pan-India GSM launch in December 2008. The company has indicated that capex for 2008-09 is roughly Rs 25,000 crore (much of it already capitalised), while for the next fiscal it could be around Rs 15,000 crore. Given the fact there is heavy foreign currency borrowings in RComm’s balance sheet, servicing this debt will mean that margins are likely to remain under pressure for the next 12-18 months. However, this is probably the last significant capex phase for the company.

In the meanwhile, with a burgeoning subscriber base aided by its GSM launch in 14 new circles, strength in its other divisions — broadband and enterprise data (domestic and international) — is gaining momentum to provide broad-based growth for the company.

Synergies from GSM launch

RComm has a pan-India CDMA presence with about 50 million subscribers. In addition, in eight circles where it currently operates, there are 10 million subscribers. In late December last year, RComm launched GSM services in the other 14 circles as well. The total subscriber additions in January alone stood at 5 million, bulk of which is expected to have come from new GSM subscribers.

It remains to be seen if this success does not cannibalise its CDMA offering. Despite being a CDMA player, where ARPUs are lower, RComm’s realisations per minute are around 61 paise , which compares favourably with most GSM operators. This may improve a wee bit after the GSM launch, especially because there are no serious discounts in tariffs that is being offered to customers.

RComm has built a nationwide and international network to carry its own national and international traffic. This would also help it garner countrywide roaming revenues and incoming international roaming on both its networks which went to other GSM operators.

With its pan-India CDMA towers, the GSM arm also gains by co-locating tower facilities, resulting in lower capex and opex for RComm, apart from improving tenancy.

In a related development, new licence winner Swan Telecom has reportedly signed up for a tower sharing pact. This should provide an added source of revenue for the company.

Other Contributions

RComm derives over 33 per cent of its revenues from its Global and enterprise data businesses.

In its Global business, the company provides domestic long distance connectivity to operators such as Vodafone Essar, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices and Aircel and derives 40 per cent of its NLD revenues from these operators. This could grow as new operators step in to offer services, but there is competition from BSNL and Bharti Airtel as well. But as the Market is largely dominated by these three players, RComm could still end up with a substantial pie.

The company’s international connectivity division is also seeing considerable growth both in organic (through Flag) and inorganic modes through acquisition of Vanco Group in Europe and Yipes in the US. This division has 1,400 customers for data connectivity as well as 750 carriers.

Through Vanco, the company has had large multi-year deal wins with several retail majors in Europe, such as the Oxylane Group and Illy Caffe. Being transaction-intensive, these are likely to provide revenue visibility over the long-term.

The Yipes division is also witnessing traction and has added 25 customers in the last quarter, including names such as Facebook, Troutman Sanders and NASDAQ OMX Europe.

In the domestic enterprise segment, the company is the second largest player, according to a recent study by Frost & Sullivan. This is an 18.7 percent share of a Rs 7,400 crore Market, expected to go up to over Rs 13,000 crore by 2013. Client wins are happening here too. This segment serves 900 corporate customers across India and enjoys an EBITDA margin of 42.2 per cent.

More India business stories

The company has network connectivity to 8,92,000 buildings across the country that would allow it to deliver connectivity through a variety of wired and wireless modes.

With the Global Economy slowing down and with clamping down on travel budgets, corporates, it is expected, will transact and communicate more through communication modes such as virtual private network. This means greater business opportunity for companies such as RComm.