Winners of 2011 - Stay Invested

Even though most frontline stocks are still struggling to recover lost ground, 24 stocks in the BS 200 list have given positive returns at a time the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark, Sensex, has tumbled 24.5 per cent, or over 5,000 points, to 15,491 till December 16.

For example, Bajaj Auto is up eight per cent even though all the other automobile stocks in BS 200 reported a decline ranging 3-34 per cent. Similar is the story across other sectors such as telecom, pharma, FMCG, banking and so on.

Kitchen appliances maker TTK Prestige has gained the most so far in 2011. The company has reported a healthy 56 per cent year-on-year growth in net profit of Rs 59.05 crore for the six months ended September, a trend also seen in the past. TTK has reported a compounded annual growth rate of 20 per cent in revenues and 50 per cent in profit after tax in the past decade. Crisil Research has assigned it a fundamental grade of ‘5/5’, indicating excellent fundamentals.

Among other big gainers, Gujarat Flurochemicals appreciated 61 per cent during this period. The company, engaged in the industrial gases business, had reported an almost fourfold jump in net profit at Rs 348 crore for the six months ended September on the back of higher income from operations, which got a boost from certified emission reductions (carbon credits). It had reported a net profit of Rs 264 crore in the entire previous year ended March 2010.

Consumption plays shine
If you had bet on consumption-related or so-called defensive stocks such as Bata India, Gitanjali Gems, TTK Prestige and Petronet LNG, given the weakening market conditions in 2011, it would have yielded a return in the range of 28-62 per cent.

However, according to market analysts, the valuations for consumer staples are not cheap any more, post the recent outperformance. They say part of the rush for these “safe haven” companies is driven by volatility in the markets.

Foreign institutional investors have also shown interest in consumption and defensive stocks during the year, data show.

The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, considered a defensive bet in volatile times, has outperformed the market by giving an average nine per cent return, while pharma and information technology (IT) have restricted losses to sub-16 per cent each.

Hindustan Lever, Colgate-Palmolive and ITC in the FMCG space appreciated between 12 and 26 per cent each and figure among the top 15 gainers. The question is what is the outlook for such stocks? The verdict is not unilateral.

“FMCG and pharmaceutical companies have done well in the past despite macroeconomic headwinds. I believe the consumption story has not been overdone and stocks from these sectors will continue to do well,” said Saurabh Mukherjea, head of equities, Ambit Capital.

However, other analysts expect some cooling off in the consumption theme, given the rupee-dollar equation and inflation levels. Says T P Raman, Managing Director, Sundaram Mutual, “I believe consumption may cool off a bit going ahead, though not in the immediate near term.”

Cementing gains
UltraTech Cement, ACC and Ambuja Cements each gained about five per cent during the period, and figure among the top 25 gainers. The stocks outperformed as cement prices remained north-bound during the year. The average retail prices of cement increased about three per cent in November 2011 month-on-month to Rs 289 a bag and almost 17 per cent year-on-year.

“Cement demand will continue to gain traction during the remainder of 2011-12. However, in the light of the steep rise in prices over the past nine months, the tempo of price increase is likely to slow,” said Ajay D’Souza, head, Crisil Research.

Some experts, though, are cautious on the sector. Points out Ambareesh Baliga, Chief Operating Officer, Way2-Wealth, “With the demand for cement likely to remain under pressure going ahead, the stocks are also expected to remain subdued.”

On the whole, given that uncertainties and concerns still continue, it will be some time before things start looking up. Baliga says, “Overall, we advise investors to stay away from the equity markets in the current market conditions.”

Our Recommendation -

Stay invested in above shares and keep adding them to your portfolio as we feel that they are likely to out perform in 2012 too.

Wishing All our Readers a Very Happy & Bullish New Year !!! May be your dream of building Wealth come true.

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