Monday, February 24, 2014

Telecom Sector - Avoid

With the conclusion of Spectrum auction, the GOI has garnered good funds, at the cost of the Telcos and its end users !!

The trend for the last month or so in the telecom sector scrips in the BSE and NSE - down.  It is unlikely to reverse this trend and as we see lower tops and lower bottoms, we expect the slide to continue for the upcoming year. 

Idea Cellular had a recent low of Rs.127 and is likely to halt around Rs.100, failing which it can go all the way upto Rs.75-80 levels which is a compelling buy for long term portfolio investors.

RCom appears to be weakest in the Telco pack its fall is more pronounced when compared to other 2 biggies Idea and Bharti.  Avoid the scrip as it is likely to breach recent low of 110.  The fall could be steep and in our estimates it could hit Rs.75 sooner or later.

Bharti - better placed than the other 2 companies.  Acquisition of Loop Telecom would entail an outflow of Rs.700 crores which will put more pressure on cash flows and could bump up the interest costs for borrowings to fund spectrum fee as well as taking over of loop.  Staring near the 52W low this stock is poised to slide sharply in the coming months.

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

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