Tuesday, August 4, 2009

BSE / NSE Indian Stock Markets Weekly Review 27-31 July 09

With the Q1 June 2009 earnings season over, the domestic bourses may track global markets in the coming days. A strong global risk appetite has boosted stocks across the globe in the past few days. The BSE Sensex struck its highest level in more than 13 months.

The Q1 June 2009 results announced so far have been encouraging, with lower costs helping bottomline growth. The combined net profit of 1792 companies rose 23% to Rs 69263 crore on 5.2% fall in sales to Rs 651371 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Brokerages are likely to revise their earnings estimates upwards for the Sensex after most companies forming the part of the index reported results that beat analysts' expectations.

The BSE Sensex gained 1.89% to 15,670.31 in the week ended 31 July 2009. It was the Sensex's highest closing since 17 June 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 1.48% to 4636.45 in the week.

Foreign institutional investor (FII) bought shares worth a net Rs 9,653.60 crore in July 2009 (till 29 July 2009). FIIs had bought stocks worth a net Rs 3,224.90 crore in June 2009. Their inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 34,197.80 crore

Investors will closely watch the progress of the annal monsoon as more than two-thirds of the people live in villages and 60% of the farm land depends on the annual rains. The southwest monsoon rains, running between June to September, were 18% below normal in the week to 29 July 2009, having been above normal for the previous two weeks, the India Meteorological Department said on its website on Thursday, 30 July 2009. Total rainfall since the beginning of June was 19% below average, the weather bureau said.

Meanwhile, investor focus is likely to shift from secondary market to the primary market with the Adani Power's initial public offer seeing spectacular response. The public issue of 30.16 crore shares in the price band Rs 90-100 which opened for subscription from 28 July 2009 was oversubscribed 18.24 times by 15:00 IST on Friday, 31 July 2009, the last of the bidding. The company will raise up to Rs 3,016 crore at the upper end of the price band, making it the second-biggest issue after Reliance Power.

Close on the heels of Adani Power, state-run power company NHPC will hit the primary market to raise upto Rs 6048 crore through sale of shares in a price-band of Rs 30-36 in an IPO. The issue will open on 7 August 2009 and close on 11 August 2009. The company would sell 168 crore shares comprising of 5% stake divestment of the government and infusion of 10% fresh equity.

Globally the sentiment has been buoyant with the US equity indices surging to nine-month highs, with the Dow Jones above the psychological 9,000 mark on better-than-estimated results from frontline companies. Asian markets, too, struck 11-month high, as better-than-expected earnings of companies from Japan and US reinforced hopes of stronger global growth.

World equity funds garnered $9.5 billion in the week ending 29 July 2009, according to data the latest data from global fund tracker EPFR Global. The inflow was the highest since June 2008.

Emerging markets continued to be the darling of investors, with dedicated BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) equity funds seeing net inflows for a 19th straight week. India equity funds took in a year-to-date high of $211 million in the most recent week, while China and Greater China stock funds saw $711 million in fresh money.

Meanwhile, investors will closely watch the preliminary second-quarter US GDP data about to be released by the Commerce Department on Friday, 31 July 2009. Economists forecast a 1.5% annualised pace of contraction in the second quarter, following a 5.5% drop in the first three months of 2009.