Tuesday, February 10, 2026

#Multibagger - BSE Limited how 1 lakh became 27 lakhs in 9 years


 

Initial Listing Price (2017)

The BSE IPO was priced at the upper band of ₹806. On its listing day, February 3, 2017, it listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) at:


  • Listing Open: ₹1,085 (a premium of ~35% over the issue price).
  • Listing Day High: ₹1,200.
  • Listing Day Close: ₹1,069.20.

2. Volume Growth: From "Laggard" to "Leader"

The volume growth of BSE has been the primary engine for its recent stock price surge.

  • The NSE Dominance Era (2017–2022): For several years after listing, BSE struggled with low trading volumes, especially in the high-margin Derivatives (F&O) segment, where NSE held a near-monopoly. Daily volumes were relatively modest.
  • The Turnaround (2023–2026): Under new leadership and revamped product structures (like the Sensex and Bankex derivatives), volumes exploded.
    • 2017 Volumes: Daily traded shares were often in the low lakhs.
    • 2026 Volumes: Today, it is common to see 50 lakh to 80 lakh shares traded daily on the NSE, with turnover reaching thousands of crores per session.
    • Derivatives Explosion: BSE’s market share in equity derivatives has jumped from nearly 0% to over 20% in the last two years, driving its massive profit growth.

If you had bought 100 shares of BSE Ltd in June 2017 at ₹1,000 per share, you would be sitting on one of the most successful "multibagger" runs in recent Indian market history.

Here is the step-by-step breakdown of your holdings and returns as of February 10, 2026.

1. The Share Multiplication (Bonus History)

BSE has issued two major bonuses since your purchase, both in a 2:1 ratio. This means for every 1 share you held, you received 2 additional free shares.

  • Initial Purchase (June 2017): 100 shares
  • Bonus 1 (March 2022, 2:1): 100 shares became 300 shares
  • Bonus 2 (May 2025, 2:1): 300 shares became 900 shares

Current Share Count: 900 Shares

2. Return on Investment (ROI) Calculation

To calculate your percentage returns, we compare your initial capital to the current market value of your total shares.

Component

Value

Calculation

Initial Investment

₹1,00,000

$100 \text{ shares} \times ₹1,000$

Current Price (Feb 10, 2026)

₹3,131

Approx. market price today

Current Market Value

₹28,17,900

$900 \text{ shares} \times ₹3,131$

Total Absolute Profit

₹27,17,900

$₹28,17,900 - ₹1,00,000$

Total Percentage Return: ~2,718%

Summary

  • Shares Held: You now have 9 times the number of shares you started with.
  • Portfolio Growth: Your ₹1 Lakh investment has turned into approximately ₹28.18 Lakhs.
  • Annualized Growth (XIRR): This represents a staggering compounded annual growth rate of roughly 48-50% over the last 8.5 years.

The impending listing of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on the BSE is being viewed as the single biggest catalyst for the exchange sector in the next three years. Because SEBI regulations prevent an exchange from listing on itself, NSE must list on BSE, effectively making the "rival" its home platform.

Here is the outlook for BSE Ltd regarding this listing, turnover, and earnings through 2029:

1. The "NSE Effect" on BSE’s Turnover

The listing will directly impact BSE’s trading volumes in two ways:

  • Massive Listing Day Volume: NSE’s IPO is expected to be India’s largest-ever financial services IPO. The sheer volume of trading in NSE shares on Day 1 (and the subsequent weeks) will provide a massive one-time and ongoing boost to BSE’s cash segment turnover.
  • Institutional Traction: As institutional investors trade NSE shares on the BSE platform, it increases the overall "liquidity pool" of BSE. This helps narrow bid-ask spreads, making BSE a more attractive alternative to NSE for other stocks as well.

2. Impact on Earnings (Next 3 Years)

Analysts have a strong bullish outlook, with earnings expected to grow significantly.

Metric

Forecast (2026–2029)

Primary Driver

Revenue Growth

~16% – 24% CAGR

Surge in transaction charges from derivatives and the NSE listing.

Net Profit (PAT)

~20% – 34% CAGR

Operating leverage; as volumes grow, costs don't rise proportionally.

Return on Equity (ROE)

~39% (by 2029)

High cash generation and low capital expenditure requirements.

  • Derivatives Market Share: BSE’s profit explosion is currently driven by its success in the weekly options segment (Sensex/Bankex). Analysts expect BSE to capture 25%–30% of the total derivatives market share by 2028, up from its current ~20%.
  • Listing Fees: As more companies (including NSE) list and stay listed on BSE, the recurring annual listing fees provide a stable, high-margin revenue stream.

3. Future Risks to Watch

While the outlook is positive, two "impending" factors could temper growth:

  • Regulatory Changes: The 2026 Budget increased the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on F&O. While the market has absorbed this so far, any further hikes could hit the high-frequency trading (HFT) volumes that BSE relies on.
  • The "NSE Listing" Paradox: Once NSE is listed on BSE, investors will have a choice between the two giants. Some "exchange-thematic" capital might move from BSE to NSE, as NSE remains the larger and more dominant business by absolute profit.

Outlook

The next 3 years (2026–2029) are likely to be "Golden Years" for BSE Ltd. The NSE listing will not only provide a massive revenue spike through transaction fees but also cement BSE's position as a technologically equal competitor to NSE.


#Silver Trend February 2026

 


February 10, 2026, silver in India is experiencing a significant recovery following a period of extreme volatility. After crashing from historic highs earlier in the year, the market has seen a sharp 5.3% jump, reclaiming the crucial psychological mark of ₹3,00,000 per kg.

Current Price Snapshot

1 Gram₹300📈 Up ₹15
10 Grams₹3,000📈 Up ₹150
100 Grams₹30,000📈 Up ₹1,500
1 Kilogram₹3,00,00,000📈 Up ₹15,000

Key Market Drivers & Outlook
The "Recovery Rally": After hitting a monthly low near ₹2.75 lakh/kg on February 6, silver has seen aggressive short-covering.

Traders who bet on falling prices are now buying back to exit positions, fueling the current bounce.

Global Signals:
While the US Dollar has shown some strength today—which usually pressures silver—the metal is finding support from positive global manufacturing data and its "undervalued" status compared to gold.

Resistance Levels: Experts suggest the current rally faces a tough test. While ₹3 lakh is a positive milestone, significant resistance lies in the ₹3.20 lakh to ₹3.50 lakh range

Warning: Some analysts (like those from PACE 360) remain cautious, labeling recent gains as a "dead cat bounce." They warn that despite the recovery, the long-term trend could see further corrections if industrial demand doesn't keep pace with the high price levels.

Why 2026 is a "Silver Year"Despite the recent price swings, the broader outlook for 2026 remains structurally supported by:
Green Tech Demand:
Silver's role in solar panels, EVs, and AI hardware provides a solid industrial floor.

Supply Deficit:
The market is expected to remain in a deficit for the sixth consecutive year.
Monetary Policy:

Anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year could lower the opportunity cost of holding silver, making it more attractive to investors.


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Saturday, October 4, 2025

Aluminium - New Gold

 Are you ready for the rally

Aluminium Sector

  • Aluminium prices reached highs near $3,500/tonne in 2022 due to energy cost surges and geopolitical factors, but then eased in 2023 as supply stabilized.

  • In 2025, prices are expected to average around $2,625 per tonne, with some projections up to $2,700 - $2,800, supported by growing demand from EVs and renewables but tempered by economic uncertainties and tariffs.

  • Long-term outlook through 2030 anticipates aluminium market growth CAGR between 3% and 6%, with price ranges depending on supply-demand balance, decarbonization trends, and new capacity bringing moderate upward price pressure.

  • Commodity analysts highlight potential supply deficits in the near term (2025-2026) due to production limitations and geopolitical trade factors as a key upside risk.


Globally, aluminium remains a critical metal with demand driven by industrial, automotive, construction, and clean energy transitions, supporting a positive but moderate price growth outlook for the next 5 years.Here is a summary table of aluminium prices over the last 5 years and the outlook for the next 5 years based on global market data

NALCO

National Aluminium is undertaking significant expansion in aluminium and alumina production, with an investment outlay of around ₹30,000 crore over the next five years to strengthen its position and aim for Maharatna status.

Key Expansion Projects

  • NALCO is setting up a new aluminium smelter with a capacity of 0.5 million tonnes per annum in Odisha, backed by an investment of ₹18,000 crore, with operations targeted to begin by FY2030.

  • An additional ₹12,000 crore is allocated for a 1,080 MW coal-based captive power plant to support the new smelter, ensuring stable and cost-effective energy supply.

  • Alumina refinery capacity will increase by 1 million tonnes per annum (fifth stream) with an investment of around ₹5,677 crore, aiming for mechanical completion by March 2026 and full ramp-up soon after.

  • The Pottangi bauxite mine, a critical raw material source, is set to begin operations by Q4, FY2025-26, backed by an investment of about ₹1,961 crore.

Downstream and Value-Added Product Initiatives

  • NALCO is entering the aluminium foil segment with an investment of ₹150–₹200 crore.scanx

  • A 100,000-tonne wire rod mill and enhancements for rolled product capacities are planned, with a 10% growth target for overall production and a focus on new value-added products like special grade and fused alumina.

Strategic Objectives and Impact

  • These expansions are part of NALCO’s strategy to push annual turnover beyond ₹25,000 crore, a key threshold for Maharatna status.

  • The company aims for 22.5–23 million tonnes of alumina production by FY26 and a significant increase in both domestic and export sales of alumina and aluminium.scanx

  • Power cost reduction by leveraging captive coal mines will further boost competitiveness and profitability.

NALCO’s wide-ranging expansion plan will make it one of India’s most forward-looking and capacity-rich aluminium producers, further strengthening its foothold in both domestic and global markets

NALCO’s expansion plans are expected to significantly boost both topline revenue and profitability over the next five years. The company is investing around ₹30,000-₹35,600 crore in capacity additions, including a new 0.5 MTPA aluminium smelter, alumina refinery expansion, and captive power plants, aiming to push turnover beyond ₹25,000 crore by 2030—up from around ₹17,000 crore currently.

Impact on Revenue

  • The alumina refinery’s 1 MTPA fifth stream, slated to ramp up by FY27-FY28, will increase merchant alumina sales, contributing to strong revenue growth at a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10-12% over the next five years.

  • The increased aluminium smelting capacity, combined with improved power cost structures due to captive coal mines, will further drive sales volumes and revenue, especially in domestic and export markets.

  • Revenue recorded a significant jump from ₹13,149 crore in FY24 to ₹16,788 crore in FY25, with the expansion expected to sustain and accelerate this growth trajectory.

Impact on Profitability

  • In FY25, NALCO reported a record net profit of ₹5,325 crore, a 158% increase year-on-year, driven by strong prices, operational efficiency, and early benefits from expansions.

  • Analysts expect earnings growth (PAT) at approximately 15% CAGR owing to margin accretive alumina sales and cost efficiencies from captive power and raw material sources.

  • The company’s debt-free status and strong internal accruals provide financial flexibility to fund capex without pressure, preserving profitability margins as expansions roll out.

  • NALCO’s focus on value-added products and global market expansions (e.g., UK market) is expected to sustain profitability through diversified revenue streams and premium pricing.

Overall, NALCO’s expansion is expected to solidify its market leadership, expand production volumes, and drive sustainable revenue and profit growth over the next five years, supporting its goal of attaining Maharatna status by 2030.

Hindalco

Hindalco Industries plans a substantial production capacity expansion over the next five years with a committed global investment of about $10 billion (around ₹82,000 crore) spanning aluminium, copper, and speciality alumina sectors.alcircle+2

Key Upstream Expansion Projects

  • Aluminium smelting capacity will grow with:

    • An 180,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) expansion at the Aditya aluminium smelter in Odisha.

    • A 360,000 TPA expansion at the Mahan aluminium smelter in Madhya Pradesh.

  • A new greenfield alumina refinery with a capacity of 850,000 TPA is under development to strengthen raw material security.wirecable+3

  • Copper smelting capacity will increase with a 300,000 TPA expansion at the Dahej smelter, positioning it as the world’s largest single-location copper smelter outside China.newindianexpress+2

  • Hindalco has secured the 12 million tonne Meenakshi coal mine to support energy needs and maintain low-cost production.economictimes+1

Downstream and New Business Initiatives

  • Hindalco aims to quadruple downstream EBITDA by FY30 through a mix of value-added aluminium, copper, speciality alumina, and recycling products.alcircle+2

  • A new battery foil manufacturing plant in Odisha with 25,000 TPA capacity (₹800 crore investment) is set to commence by July 2025 for EV battery markets.adityabirla

  • Construction is progressing on India’s first and the world’s second-largest dedicated e-waste and copper recycling facility at Pakhajan.hindalco+1

  • The US subsidiary, Novelis, is investing $4.1 billion in an expansion project at Bay Minette, Alabama, which will increase capacity to 5 million tonnes annually by 2026.angelone+1

Strategic Vision

  • Hindalco’s expansion will significantly boost aluminium smelting capacity by about 540,000 TPA overall, alumina refining by 850,000 TPA, and copper smelting by 300,000 TPA.

  • The investments aim to reinforce Hindalco’s position as the world’s lowest-cost aluminium producer and support leadership in copper and speciality alumina markets.

  • The focus on recycling, EV battery materials, and sustainability aligns with global demand trends and regulatory focus.

Hindalco’s aggressive expansion plan will scale up upstream capacities across aluminium and copper alongside strengthening downstream products, which is aimed at driving significant revenue and profit growth through FY30.

Key Observations

  • Hindalco is a much larger company, with FY25 revenue (₹2.38 lakh crore) approximately 14 times that of NALCO (~₹16,788 crore).

  • NALCO exhibits higher EBITDA and PAT margins (~39% and 32%), reflecting its focused upstream aluminium production and cost-efficient operations, while Hindalco’s margins are lower (~15% EBITDA, 6.7% PAT) due to diversified operations including downstream and copper businesses.

  • Hindalco’s absolute EBITDA and PAT are significantly higher given its size, but NALCO shows strong profitability percentages and a debt-free balance sheet, which indicates operational efficiency.

  • Both companies posted strong profit growth in FY25: NALCO’s net profit grew 158%, Hindalco’s PAT rose 58% year-over-year, supported by favorable macro conditions and cost optimizations.

  • With NALCO’s expansion plan, its topline and profitability are expected to grow substantially, but the scale will still be smaller than Hindalco’s large diversified footprint.

Technical Analysis

The picture below shows the strong momentum in Metal Sector with National Aluminium spiked by 40% while Hindalco gone up by 30% while the Sector is up by 22%