TA - Tata Steel

Tata Steel too began the week on a nervous note , declining to Rs 192. But the stock rallied thereafter to move higher towards the resistance at Rs 230. If the stock is unable to penetrate this level, it can reverse lower and head towards Rs 200 again. This sideways move will however be construed as a consolidation that can be followed by a break-out towards our medium term target at Rs 250. A close below Rs 190 is needed to mitigate the positive short-term view. The medium-term trend in the stock however continues to be sideways in the range between Rs 150 and Rs 250. As explained last week, the stock needs to record a strong break-out above Rs 250 to pave the way for a rally to Rs 345 or Rs 360. Source : businessline

Technical Analysis - Tata Steel

Tata Steel caught up with its large-cap peers towards the end of the week when
it moved above the resistance band between Rs 184 and Rs 190 on Thursday.

The strong volume accompanying this break-out is a positive signal. The stock
could head towards the upper boundary of the medium-term trading band at Rs 250.

We retain a neutral medium term view for this stock. But a strong break-out
above Rs 250 will give the next resistance in the band between Rs 345 and Rs
360.

Medium-term investors can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 175. Short-term
supports for the stock are at Rs 197 and Rs 187. Fresh longs should be avoided
on a decline below the first support.

Lokeshwarri S. K.
businessline 29-03-09

Thumbs Down for Interim

Budget disheartens D-street;

Sensex ends over 3.4% down The 30-share BSE Sensex which belled on a negative note on negative global cues continued its bearish trend after the sixth interim budget failed to bolster investor confidence.

Interim budget 2009-10 announced today by minister of external affairs, Pranab Mukherjee, highlighted the state of economy and outlook for the future and said that the UPA kept the promises outlined in the Common Minimum Programme (CMP).

Asian stocks declined, led by finance and consumer companies, as Japan`s economy overshrank the most since 1974 and Group of Seven finance chiefs said the economic slowdown will persist through most of 2009.

The Sensex ended the day with a loss of 329.29 points, or 3.42% at 9,305.45 after touching a high of 9,637.04 and a low of 9,279.10. The broad-based NSE Nifty fell 99.85 points, or 3.39% at 2,848.50 after hitting a high of 2,953.20 and a low of 2,839.10.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap too ended on a negative note down 2.93% and 2.10% respectively.
All Sectoral indices also ended on a negative note led by Metal (4.75%), Realty(4.58%), Bankex (4.58%), Capital Goods (4.55%) and Oil and Gas (4.23%).
ITC which gained 0.75% was the only major gainer in the 30-share index .

On the other hand, Jaiprakash Associates (7.88%), Reliance Energy (6.35%), ICICI Bank (5.79%), Reliance Communications (5.78%), Tata Steel (5.20%) and Reliance Industries (5.17%) were the major losers in the Sensex.

Overall market breadth was negative. Out of the total 2,482 shares traded at BSE, 776 advanced, 1,598 declined while 103 remained unchanged.

Source: IRIS (16 February 2009)

All eyes on Interim Budget !

all eyes would be on the interim budget on Monday as the market is hoping for a lot of sops to revive a sagging economy. However, because expectations from the budget have risen considerably in the last few days, even a moderately generous budget could actually set a bearish undertone for the bourses. On the contrary, if the budgetary proposals beat or match market expectations, it could start the next leg of the stock market rally.

In terms of the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, on its way up the Sensex is now likely to test its first resistance at 9,718 points. This has now become a moderate resistance level and may go easily in case rising prices are supported by rising volumes. Following this level, the next resistance is likely to come up at 9,929 points, which will also be a moderate level. However, the next resistance at 10,186 would be an important level and would offer a rising Sensex strong resistance. If the Sensex closes above this level, then the next resistance would come at 10,454 points.

However, going by the study of technical indicators, it is expected that the Sensex would face profit selling at 10,186 points and if it stabilizes around this level, then selling could intensify.

On its way down, the Sensex is likely to test its first support at 9,441 points. This is a crucial support level and investors should watch this carefully as a close below this level would be bearish and could signal more declines. Following this level, there would be minor support at 9,311 points.

Author Vipul Verma

Source : Livemint.com

However, if the selling momentum is high, then this level might not offer any ground to a falling Sensex. At 9,023 points, the short-term trend for the Sensex would be set.

For the S&P CNX Nifty, there is a strong resistance at 2,981 points going northwards. This is a moderate but important resistance level. If this level goes, then the next resistance would come up at 3,068 points, which would again be an important resistance level. This level might trigger some profit selling.

However, if the Nifty closes convincingly above this level, this would mean further gains, which might take it to the next resistance level of 3,140 points. This would be a trend-deciding level and if the Nifty is able to close convincingly above this level with good volumes, this could start the next leg of the stock market rally.

On its way down, the Nifty would test its first support at 2,874 points. This would be an important support level and a close below this level would be seen as very bearish. The next support level would then come at 2,820 points followed by the next support level at 2,754 points. A close below this level would be extremely bearish.

Among individual stocks, this week ICICI Bank Ltd, Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd, or HDFC, and Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd, or HDIL, look good on the charts. ICICI Bank at its last close of Rs434.40, has a target of Rs447 and a stop-loss of Rs419. HDFC at its last close of Rs1,540 has a target of Rs1,580 and a stop-loss of Rs1,487. HDIL at its last close of Rs87.75 has a target of Rs93 and a stop-loss of Rs81.

From my previous recommendations, Tata Steel Ltd touched a high of Rs203.85, which was well above its target of Rs196. Century Textiles and Industries Ltd hit a high of Rs186, which was well above its target of Rs173. Punjab National Bank hit a high of Rs417.95 and met its target of Rs414