Showing posts with label Sell Recommendation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sell Recommendation. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Sell - Dhanlakshmi Bank


Rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised Dhanlaxmi Bank’s outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘positive’. The outlook revision reflects expectations that structural challenges faced by the bank from aggressive expansion in recent years are unlikely to improve its overall credit profile in the short to medium-term. Since FY09 (end-March 2009), the bank’s operating performance has been impacted by substantial loan growth, which is being increasingly funded through wholesale deposits and from large investments in infrastructure and other resources.


The bank has increased its branch network by 40% and headcount by three times since FY08. Amid low net interest margins and a significantly high operating cost base, profitability remains weak.
Dhanlaxmi Bank’s asset quality has remained stable so far, with a gross non-performing asset ratio of 0.55% and a net NPA ratio of 0.17% as on end-September 2011. However, the moderating economic growth and high interest rate environment may impact its loan portfolio, a large part of which is not seasoned.


The bank expects to grow at a slower rate in the current financial year after the aggressive 81% loan growth in FY11. However, its capitalization is weakening (Tier I ratio: 8.73% in H1 2011-12, against 9.41% in 2010-11) from low internal capital generation, while raising fresh common equity is difficult in the current equity market environment.


The bank’s net profit for the quarter jumped by 168.51% at Rs 4.35 crore as compared to Rs 1.62 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2010. Total income has increased by 79.11% to Rs. 410.53 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 229.20 crore for the similar quarter of the previous year.
The bank’s gross non-performing asset ratio improved 71 basis points to 0.55% aided by strong recovery in bad loans. The absolute amount of net non-performing assets also narrowed to Rs 17.5 crore as of September-end from Rs 50.4 crore a year ago.


Our Recommendation :


The scrip has been under cloud for some time.  Inspite of a big rally witnessed in the banking sector stocks on 28th Nov, this scrip has been a laggard jumping by a measly 3.5%


Traders can short the scrip today with a strict stop loss of Rs.58 for a target of 53 for the day.



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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

SKS Microfinance Sell on rallies

MUMBAI: Shares SKS Microfinance fell below their issue price on Monday, weighed down by concerns of regulatory restrictions in the near future. The stock crashed to an intra-day low of . 894.70 — . 91 below the issue price of . 985 — before narrowing the losses to close at Rs 1,005, down 4% over its previous close.
Brokers are advising clients against buying shares of the company till there is clarity on microfinance regulations. According to them, rising regulatory interference , lending controls and the threat of rising non-performing loans could hurt the company’s financial health. “The basic business model itself is under pressure,” said Sanjeev Patni , head-institutional equities, Centrum Broking.

“There will be curbs on lending limits and interest rates (charged on borrowers) once a new regulator is appointed. Microfinance companies won’t be able to use aggressive means (like coercion) to collect money from borrowers. All these factors will impact earnings,” he said. Brokers tracking the stock say that current valuations can be justified only if there is strong credit growth, stable return on assets and very low default level, which can’t be more than 2%. However, investment advisors are of the opinion that SKS will not be able to maintain its growth if lending rates are capped and collection process relaxed.

“Capping of lending rates will result in yields on advances declining by 2%, from 26% to about 24%. Restrictions on aggressive collection methods will result in NPAs moving up. These factors will bring down returns on assets, which, in turn, will have an impact on returns on investments,” said Manish Sonthalia, senior VP-fund manager, Motilal Oswal Securities .

According to Mr Sonthalia, investors can consider buying the stock if it falls by another . 300 from current levels. Hyderabadbased SKS Microfinance found itself under the media glare after its board terminated the services of its CEO Suresh Gurumani without giving adequate reasons.
The matter snowballed into a major crisis after Sebi sought an explanation from the MFI for the reasons behind sacking Suresh Gurumani. Amidst reports of rampant mismanagement , partial disclosures at the time IPOs and low CSR quotient , the finance ministry announced its plans appoint a microfinance regulator and curb practices like overcharging borrowers and forceful collection of borrowed money, across industry.

Source ET
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Wipro - Buy Sell or Hold ?

Read what leading brokerages recommend on Wipro

Kotak Securities has maintained ‘Buy’ recommendation on Wipro even as the company reported disappointing quarterly results. The brokerage has a price target of Rs 521 on the stock.

Wipro's 2QFY11 results were disappointing. The volume growth at about 6.5% was lower than all large peers, though being decent in absolute terms. However, margins in IT services & products business dipped significantly due to RSU expenses, promotions and currency volatility.

“We modify earnings modestly to account for the Q2FY11 results- expect FY11E EPS at Rs.22.1 (Rs.22.4). Our FY12 EPS estimate, which we now introduce, stands at Rs 24.3, impacted by higher tax rates. Maintain BUY rating with a price target of Rs 521 based on FY12E earnings (Rs.489 earlier based on FY11E).

We maintain BUY but, prefer TCS and Infosys over Wipro and our exit multiple for Wipro is at a discount to peers. Lower success in driving incremental growth from large accounts, relatively lower margins and a more subdued revenue growth profile warrant the same, in our opinion

IIFL has maintained ‘market performer rating on Wipro after the IT major announced disappointing second quarter results.

“More than 100bps decline (expected 60 bps) in operating margin and net profit de-growth by 1.9% (expected 4.2% growth) came as negative surprises in this quarter. While employee retention measures (promotion and stock units) impacted margin by 130 bps, there was an unanticipated currency impact of 120 bps due to unfavorable hedges.

The company was able to offset the impact of increased sales & marketing expenses by productivity and operational levers. The de-growth in bottomline was driven by forex loss of Rs 414 mn (as opposed to a gain of Rs 458 mn in last quarter).

Management expects to recover the margin fall over the next few quarters through steady volume growth, price uptick (expected from end of year) and utilization among other operating levers

Emkay Global Financial Services has retained ‘Reduce’ rating on Wipro after the company missed street expectations for the quarter ended September. However, the brokerage has maintained its price target of Rs 420 on the stock.

“We tweak our earnings model for marginally higher US$ revenue estimates (note that we build in ~19%/18.4% YoY revenue growth for FY11/12 V/s 28%/23% for Infosys and 29%/21% for TCS) and reset currency assumptions resulting in marginal 2%/1% cut in our earnings estimates to Rs 21.1 and Rs 23.1 for FY11E/FY12E.

Wipro’s recent underperformance V/s peers appears justified in the back drop of financial performance trailing peers. Retain REDUCE with an unchanged target price of Rs 420,” the report said.

Edelweiss has downgraded Wipro to ‘Hold’ with ‘Sector Underperformer’ rating after the company’s second quarterly results. Wipro’s Q2FY11 revenues and net profits, though in line with estimates, lagged growth reported by large peers. Global IT revenues, at $1,273, grew a modest 5.7% Q-o-Q, while operating margins declined 240 bps to 22.2%.

Promotions, RSU charges and foreign currency impacted margin performance for the quarter. Net profit was reported at INR 12.85bn, down 2.5% Q-o-Q and up 9.8% Y-o-Y. Further, the next quarter (Q3FY11) constant currency revenue growth guidance, at 3.5-5.5%, seems a tad lower.

“Wipro is currently trading at P/E of 20.6x and 17.7x FY11E and FY12E earnings. This is at 18% discount to TCS’ valuations, which we see continuing given Wipro’s moderate growth outlook and slow pace of margin improvement, going forward. We, thus, downgrade the stock to ‘HOLD’ from ‘BUY’ and rate it ‘Sector Underperformer’ on relative basis,” the report said.

Sharekhan has maintained ‘Buy’ recommendation on Wipro despite the IT major’s below expectations second quarter results. The brokerage has also maintained price target of Rs 528 on the stock.

“For the quarter gone by, Wipro’s performance was below our expectation on the IT services volume front and the margin front.

In the last one year, Wipro has languished on the volume growth front as compared to its peers as the company’s key industry verticals like technology, manufacturing and telecom are still not entirely out of the woods and are still lagging behind the strong growth witnessed in the financial services sector where Wipro has lower contribution to revenues (27%), as compared to its peers.

As the demand environment becomes broader going forward, we expect Wipro to catch up on the volume front in the coming quarters

Credit Suisse on Monday downgraded India's third-largest outsourcer, Wipro, to neutral from outperform and cut its target price to Rs 475 from Rs 489 earlier.

"We were pretty surprised by the weak revenues, as peers have been rather bullish," Credit Suisse said in a note. It said Wipro' performance has lagged Infosys in topline growth both in the near term and also in the longer term, despite nearly a dozen acquisitions by the company in the past seven years.

Last week, Wipro missed quarterly profit estimates as higher wages cut margins, underperforming rivals and sending its shares down

Our Recommendation :

Use rallies to exit the counter and buy TCS for a target price of 1250

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Time to Sell TTK Prestige and Hawkins ?

The unabated rise in aluminium prices and a possible roll back of excise duty cuts could adversely impact profit margins of two large players in the cookware segment — TTK Prestige Ltd and Hawkins Cookers Ltd. In fact, the next two quarters could be a test of brand strength and pricing power, which have helped sustain the jump in profit margins seen in the first two quarters of the current financial year.
Operating profit margins (OPM) for TTK and Hawkins were at 9.6% and 12.1% respectively during FY 2009. This jumped to 12.9% and 20.7% in the June quarter of FY2010, and to 20.8% and 15.5% respectively in the September quarter. Analysts state that the rise in margins is a function of cost rationalistion and also some pipeline low-cost inventory. For TTK Prestige, the ratio of raw material cost/net sales fell from 55.2% in FY2009 to 51.7% in the September quarter. Likewise, for Hawkins, the ratio dropped from 44.8% to 35.9% during the same period.

Also, benefits accrued on account of the government’s stimulus of an across the board excise duty benefit to boost consumption.

In the last one month, though, the price of aluminium, which accounts for 50-55% of the material cost has seen a price increase of around 10%. “How much of the cost increase can be passed on depends on market factors, although history states that we have been able to handle this,” said an official from TTK Prestige.

For now, the two companies have pulled off strategies to maintain a fair share of the market, although there’s stiff competition from the unorganised sector. This hampers the company’s ability to freely pass on any cost increases. Both these companies have a 62-65% slice of the market, leaving the rest to regional players.

Perhaps another judicious strategy which has paid off is that the two companies have expanded the product range to include a host of kitchenware items like non-stick pans, cookers and even electrical appliances. For example, TTK which was only into cookware, now has around 33% of its revenues coming from kitchen appliances.

In fact, both companies have done very well on the earnings front. Hawkins posted an earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 32.5 for the first half of FY2010, against Rs 36.2 during the full year FY2009. Likewise, TTK posted Rs 19 against Rs 20, during the same periods. But a similar performance in the second half of the year is an uphill task.

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Sunday, November 8, 2009

Reliance Power Sell

We recommend a sell in the stock of Reliance Power from a short-term perspective. It is apparent from the charts that the stock was on an intermediate-term uptrend from March low of Rs 89 to its June high of Rs 210. Triggered by negative divergence and presence of significant long-term resistance around Rs 200, the stock resumed its long-term downtrend which has been in place since February 2008 high of Rs 374. Moreover, since June it has been on an intermediate-term downt rend. In early October, the stock breached its 21-day and 50-day moving averages and is hovering way below them. Both the daily relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicators are featuring in the bearish territory. The weekly indicators are on the verge of entering in to the bearish territory. Our short-term forecast on the stock is bearish. We expect the stock’s downtrend to prolong until it hits our price target of Rs 124 in the approaching trading sessions. Traders with a short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 146.

Yoganand D.

Source : businessline

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Gail Sell

GAIL India Reco price: Rs 260 Current market price: Rs 268 Target price: Rs 255 Upside: NA Brokerage: Religare Hichens, Harrison GAIL India’s management indicated that at least two-thirds of the KG-basin gas would flow through its network--the brokerage anticipates gas flow of over 80 per cent. However, GAIL is seeking clarity on marketing margins for KG gas. GAIL currently has 7,000 km (150 mmscm) of pipeline capacity and is adding another 5,500 km (150 mmscm) in two phases by FY12. The company has charted out a capex of around Rs 20,000 crore during the 11th five-year plan, of which, close to 80 per cent is expected to be incurred towards the pipeline business. GAIL does not expect its transmission tariff to reduce, even if PNGRB (the regulator) imposes a ROCE-based rate. It expects gas transmission volumes to be revised downwards for FY10 and also raised petrochemical price assumption from Rs 42 to Rs 55 per kg and a shift in rupee depreciation assumption from Rs 46 to a dollar to Rs 48.5. Driven by change in estimates and altered WACC assumptions, the target price is revised upwards from Rs 216. Maintain ‘hold’. Smart Investor BS 13-04-09

Sunday, April 12, 2009

ONGC - Avoid / Sell on rise

ONGC


ONGC achieved our medium-term target of Rs 920 and moved sideways thereafter. As mentioned in our previous column, target of the third wave from the Rs 637 trough is Rs 926.

The sharp up-trend from the March 6 trough can lose steam around these levels and a correction can ensue that pulls the stock lower to Rs 800 or even Rs 750. Firm break-out above Rs 960 is required to mitigate this view.

The short-term trend in ONGC is positive and short-term traders can buy on declines as long as the stock trades above Rs 850.A strong move above Rs 920 can take the stock to Rs 1005. Medium-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 800.

Lokeshwarri S. K.
Businessline 12-04-09

Our View :

Drop in volumes and drop in prices indicate short term correction in the stock.  Avoid or sell above 950 and close positions intraday.

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Maruti - Sell short term

Maruti Suzuki


Maruti Suzuki recorded an intra-week peak at Rs 829 and closed with marginal gains. The 14-day relative strength index has reached the overbought zone and negative divergence is apparent in the 10-day rate of change oscillator.

The implication is that the up-trend is losing momentum. There is a strong resistance in the band between Rs 830 and Rs 850 and caution is advised as long as the stock trades below this band. Short-term supports would be at Rs 760 and Rs 712.

We retain a positive medium-term view as long as the stock trades above Rs 750. The parabolic up-move witnessed since March could take the stock towards the medium-term target of Rs 850 and Rs 950.

Lokeshwarri S. K.
Businessline 12-04-09

Our View :

The decline in volumes indicates that the scrip is headed south for the time being.  Good support exists at Rs.750 where one can buy.   A clear sell above Rs.850 for the short term.

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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Stock Recommendation DLF Sell


Target price: Rs 124 

Goldman Sachs has maintained its ‘sell’ rating on DLF while reiterating its cautious outlook on the real estate sector. According to the investmentbank, New Delhi-based realty major’s third-quarter results have confirmed a significant slowdown in property sales and construction activity in India. 

“We push back our medium-term development pipeline projections and lower our property price assumptions,” Goldman Sachs said in a report. The investment bank has lowered its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2009-FY2011 by 29-62% and cut its 12-month target price to Rs 124 from Rs 203.

Our Analysis :

The following are the key levels to watch out for DLF

Support 1 Rs.147
Support 2 Rs. 138

Resistance 1 - 163
Resistance 2 - 180

Best is to try buy for short term at support levels and short sell at or near the resistance levels