Showing posts with label Equity Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Equity Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Purvankara Projects - Avoid

Company Background :

Puravankara Projects Limited is an India-based company. The Company is engaged in the development and construction of residential and commercial properties. The Company operates primarily in India. The Company has projects across Bangaluru, Chennai, Coimbatore, Kochi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mysore, Mumbai and Colombo. Its completed projects includes purva fountainsquare, purva jade, purva vantage, purva grande, purva Riviera, purva panorama, purva carnation, purva pavilion, purva fairmont, purva heights, purva iris, purva graces, purva park, purva paradise, castlemaine, purva nest, whitefield bougainvilla and uran park-Mumbai. As of March 31, 2012, the Company had 19 subsidiaries.

Performance 

A comparative chart with its peers in Bangalore segment reveals interesting facts.  It has fallen way ahead of others in the recent slide sinking to a new 52 week low.  A consolidation in Rs.45-50 is expected sooner than later.  While Sobha, Prestige and Brigade scrips have fallen around 18% Purvankara had steepest fall of 47% clearly indicate the weakness in the fundamentals of the share.


52 Week Low :

Will you buy this stock ? No The investors are exiting the stock since the expectation is that there will be fall in total sales and revenue in next 2 quarters.  The Realty scene in major cities in India is down since there is contraction in the income levels of the users and tepid increase in the annual salaries of the workforce.

Provident Housing :

The company forayed into low cost housing projects with a 100% subsidiary which is yet to turn green.  The large size of units that remain unsold is a cause for worry.

Buying Opportunity :

During last year the company raised money through QIP at Rs.80 levels to raise INR 1.84 Billion hence the book value continues to remain high.  The debt levels are also manageable.  The scrip becomes a compelling buy only after we review the performance in Q4 quarterly results and management perception of the realty scenario in major markets they have projects.  

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina Consulting

No.24 Pattamal Plaza
3rd Cross Kamannahalli
BANGALORE 560048

For Stock Advise + Ideas

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Sunday, February 23, 2014

Buy Media Stocks ahead of General Elections 2014

With all Political parties trying to woo voters, they will use both print and electronic media to reach out to critical masses.  Media stocks comprise of 2 categories -

Electronic Media - TV Channels

Best Buy :

TVToday CMP Rs.120 SL 110 for a Target Price of Rs.150
Jumped 10% during last week wait for a correction to enter around 112.  Got Indias Largest Circulated weekly as well as a TV channel.

For Average Returns of 15-20% consider the following scrips part of Media group

TV18 Media - Buy around Rs.22 SL 18 for a target of Rs.32
NDTV - Buy around Rs.70 SL of 63 for a target prrice of Rs.90
SunTV - Buy around Rs.340  SL of Rs.320 for a target price of Rs.400

Print Media - News Papers

Jagran Prakashan - CMP 87 stop loss 79 for  target price of Rs.105
HTMedia - CMP 70 (close to 52Week Low) SL of 66 for a target price of Rs.106

Savvy investors are buying these scrips to hold for a period of 6 months - the ad revenues as well as sales of publications give edge to Print Media scrips.

Look for any dip from the current prices indicated above buy and hold for 4-5 months for returns that could be more than 

Ingenious Investor
Equity Research Division

Ravina ConsultingNo.24 Pattamal Plaza3rd Cross KamannahalliBANGALORE 560048
For Stock Advise + Ideasintellinvestor@gmail.comTalk / SMS 08105737966
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Sunday, January 26, 2014

Buy - Eros Media on declines

Investors with a short-term perspective can buy Eros International Media at current levels. The stock found support in the band between Rs 105 and Rs 115 in August 2013 after an intermediate-term downtrend. Subsequently, the stock changed direction and has been on a medium-term uptrend. Significant support at Rs 155 and 200-day moving average around this level provided base for the stock’s short-term corrective decline.

On Monday, the stock surged 8 per cent accompanied by above average volume, breaching its 21- and 50-day moving averages. The relative strength index on the daily chart has entered the bullish zone from the neutral region indicating positive momentum. Both daily and weekly price rate of change indicators are hovering in the positive territory implying buying interest. The short-term outlook is bullish. It can extend the uptrend to Rs 187 and then to Rs 191 in the coming trading sessions. Buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 176.
The stock is finding support around Rs.160 and facing stiff resistance beyond Rs.185 which gives a trading range of Rs.25 for the Smart Investor
Smart Investor
Equity Research Division


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Thursday, January 23, 2014

Indian Stock Markets are Zooming Ahead !



Key benchmark indices edged higher in choppy trade as index heavyweights viz. Infosys, Reliance Industries and HDFC rose. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, attained record closing high. The 50-unit CNX Nifty attained its highest closing level in more than six weeks. HDFC eked out small gains after reporting a decent growth in bottom line in Q3 December 2013. Infosys extended its recent gains triggered by the company raising its revenue growth guidance for the year ending 31 March 2014 at the time of announcement of Q3 December 2013 earnings on 10 January 2014. The Sensex garnered 86.55 points or 0.41%, off 40.24 points from the day's high and up 169.24 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive.

Indian stocks edged higher for the third day in a row today, 22 January 2014. The Sensex has garnered 274.05 points or 1.3% in three trading sessions from a recent low of 21,063.62 on 17 January 2014. The Sensex has risen 166.99 points or 0.78% in this month so far (till 22 January 2014). From a 52-week low of 17,448.71 on 28 August 2013, the Sensex has risen 3,888.96 points or 22.28%

Our Recommendation :

We strongly recommend investors to junk the so called High Beta stocks and wait for declines to enter into good quality scrips.  We will continue to recommend high quality stocks mostly from mid cap space which will ensure that investors will protect their networth and continue to create wealth by buying sun rise shares.

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division


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Sunday, January 19, 2014

BSE & NSE Weekly Review 17th Jan 2013

The market rose last week after a government data showed that inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) eased to five-month low at 6.16% in December 2013. Easing inflation provides legroom for the central bank to cut interest rates in its next policy meet in order to bolster growth. Firm global stocks also boosted sentiments. Weaker-than-estimated US employment data released last Friday, 10 January 2014, cheered financial markets, as global investors feel the US Federal Reserve may not accelerate the pace of reduction in its monthly bond purchases.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 305.13 points or 1.47% to 21,063.62. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 90.20 points or 1.46% to 6,261.65.
The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.43% and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.42%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
Key benchmark indices surged on Monday, 13 January 2014, as a weaker-than-estimated US jobs report eased concern that the US Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of stimulus cuts. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets in recent years. India has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of foreign capital flows. The S&P BSE Sensex garnered 375.72 points or 1.81% to settle at 21,134.21. The CNX Nifty garnered 101.30 points or 1.64% to settle at 6,272.75.
Key benchmark indices edged lower on Tuesday, 14 January 2014, as world stocks fell after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart on Monday, 13 January 2014, said that the US economy is on solid footing and he would support continued cuts to stimulus. The S&P BSE Sensex shed 101.33 points or 0.48% to settle at 21,032.88. The CNX Nifty lost 30.90 points or 0.49% to 6,241.85.
Key benchmark indices flared up on Wednesday, 15 January 2014, after a government data showed that inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) eased to five-month low at 6.16% in December 2013. Easing inflation provided legroom for the central bank to cut interest rates in its next policy meet in order to bolster growth. Firmness in Asian and European stocks also boosted sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 256.61 points or 1.22% to 21,289.49. The CNX Nifty rose 79.05 points or 1.27% to 6,320.90.
Key benchmark indices edged lower in choppy trade Thursday, 16 January 2014, as European stocks declined. The S&P BSE Sensex lost 24.31 points or 0.11% to settle at 21,265.18. The CNX Nifty shed 2 points or 0.03% to settle at 6,318.90.
Key benchmark indices edged lower in a choppy trading session on Friday, 17 January 2014. The S&P BSE Sensex was down 201.56 points or 0.95% to 21,063.62. The CNX Nifty was down 57.25 points or 0.91% to 6,261.65.
Infosys rose 5.05% to Rs 3,728.05. The company raised its revenue growth guidance for the year ending 31 March 2014. The stock hit record high of Rs 3,759.90 in intraday trade on Friday, 17 January 2014. At the time of announcement of Q3 December 2013 earnings, Infosys, on 10 January 2014, raised its revenue growth guidance in both rupee and dollar terms for the year ending 31 March 2014. The company expects consolidated revenue in rupee terms to grow 24.4% to 24.9% for the year ending 31 March 2014 (FY 2014). This guidance is based on rupee dollar conversion rate of 61.81 for the rest of the financial year. The company expects consolidated revenue in dollar terms to grow 11.5% to 12% in FY 2014.
TCS fell 2.90% to Rs 2,215.65 as the company's third quarter results fell short of market expectations. The company's consolidated net profit rose 15.1% to Rs 5333 crore on 1.5% increase in revenue to Rs 21294 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q2 September 2013. Operating profit grew 0.5% to Rs 6337 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q2 September 2013. Operating margin was reported at 29.8% in Q3 December 2013. TCS announced the third quarter results after trading hours on Thursday, 16 January 2014.
TCS said growth in Q3 December 2013 was driven by industries like Life Science & Healthcare, Manufacturing, Media, Travel & Hospitality and Telecom. The company's broad based presence across markets and services helped overcome seasonal weakness in some markets. Europe led growth, driven by the continuous investments being made in that market, while North America and UK also grew during the quarter, TCS said in a statement. Among growth markets, Latin America, APAC and MEA registered strong growth. India business suffered from volatility and declined sequentially, TCS said. Among service lines, Business Process Services, Enterprise Solutions, Global Consulting were the leaders.
Wipro fell 0.38% to Rs 552.45. On a consolidated basis, the company's net profit rose 4.28% to Rs 2014.70 crore on 3.06% increase in total income from operations (net) to Rs 11,327.40 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q2 September 2013. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 17 January 2014
In dollar terms, IT services revenue were reported at $1,678.4 million in Q3 December 2013, an increase of 2.9% over Q2 September 2013 and an increase of 6.4% over Q3 December 2012.
IT services revenues in rupee terms was Rs 10330 crore in Q3 December 2013, an increase of 20% over Q3 December 2012.
IT services earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) was Rs 2380 crore in Q3 December 2013, an increase of 33% over Q3 December 2012.
Wipro expects revenues from IT services business to be in the range of $1,712 million to $1,745 million including the revenues from its acquisition. (The guidance is based on the following exchange rates: GBP/USD at 1.63, Euro/USD at 1.37, AUD/USD at 0.92, USD/INR at 62.0).
Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro rose 4.72% to Rs 1,001.15. The company will announce Q3 results on 22 January 2014.  L&T announced during trading hours on Thursday, 16 January 2014, that it has recently secured new orders of Rs 1000 crore from the domestic market in its offshore and onshore hydrocarbon business segment.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 3.23% to Rs 884.55. The company after market hours on Friday, 17 January, announced that its net profit rose 0.16% to Rs 5511 crore on 10.67% increase in total income to Rs 105826 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012.
Meanwhile, a media report suggested that RIL is eyeing Petronas' 11% stake in $20-billion Venezuela project. RIL clarified to the stock exchanges during trading hours on Friday, 17 January 2014, that it continues to look for opportunities to grow its business internationally and cannot make any specific comment on the media report.
State-run GAIL (India) rose 1.45% to Rs 351. 
Index heavyweight and cigarette maker ITC rose 0.74% at Rs 324.85. The company's net profit rose 16.25% to Rs 2385.34 crore on 13.4% increase in total income to Rs 9117.91 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012. The company announced the results during market hours on Friday, 17 January 2014.
ITC said gross revenue grew by 12.9% to Rs 12223.44 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012, driven by the new FMCG businesses and the Paperboards, Paper and Packaging segment. Within the FMCG segment, ITC said that the branded packaged foods businesses posted robust growth in revenues and enhanced market standing across categories by leveraging a portfolio of differentiated and innovative products.
ITC said its hotels business recorded a significant improvement in profitability aided by superior performance by ITC Grand Chola.  ITC said that its agri business profits rose 19% in Q3 December 2013, driven by higher realisation and superior mix.
Two-wheeler maker Bajaj Auto rose 1.73% to Rs 1,934. The company's net profit rose 10.48% to a record Rs 904.55 crore on 4.67% decline in total income to Rs 5353.08 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012. The result was announced during trading hours on Thursday, 16 January 2014.
Exports rose 23.5% to Rs 2123 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012.
Operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) before mark-to-market gain/loss rose 0.64% to Rs 1092 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012. Operating EBITDA margin before mark-to-market gain/loss, edged up to 21.1% in Q3 December 2013, from 19.8% in Q3 December 2012.
Total automobile sales fell 11.88% to 9.93 lakh units in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012. Bajaj Auto said that sales during festive period, though reasonable, were not robust. Subsequently, in November and December, industry sales continued to remain sluggish, Bajaj Auto said.
Bajaj Auto said that the quarter witnessed a marked increase in input costs of steel, aluminium and other imported components.
Cash and cash equivalents as on 31 December 2013 stood at Rs 6920 crore, higher than Rs 6516 crore as on 30 September 2013, Bajaj Auto said in a statement.
Two-wheeler major Hero MotoCorp rose 1.71% to Rs 2,069.95.
Cipla (up 4.80%), HDFC (up 4.75%), Sesa Sterlite (up 2.09%), edged higher.
Telecom stocks tumbled as a surprise decision of Reliance Industries (RIL) to join the bidding for upcoming telecom spectrum auction slated for 3 February 2014 raised concerns of aggressive bidding in the auction which in turn could have an adverse impact on balance sheet of telecom firms.  Bharti Airtel declined 5.87% to Rs 311.20. 
The notes attracted huge investor interest with an order-book aggregating circa euro 600 million from high quality investor accounts. The success of tap on the existing bond emphasizes the continuing and strong belief of the investor community in Bharti's credit, Bharti Airtel said in a statement. Bharti had earlier in December 2013 raised euro 750 million in an inaugural benchmark euro issuance.
The notes have been priced at 275 basis points over the curve adjusted 5-year EUR Mid Swap with a fixed coupon of 4% per annum. Bharti will fully apply the net proceeds to refinance its existing debt.
RIL's entry could result in increase in competition in the telecom sector.
RIL will join Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular as well as the local units of Vodafone Group PLC and Telenor ASA in bidding for bandwidth in the auction in February. The government aims to raise at least Rs 11000 crore through two sets of auctions, one for a national service and another for a portion of bandwidth in Delhi, Mumbai or Kolkata, collectively home to over 32 million Indians.
RIL will bid to operate both nationally and in the three cities. A successful bid would mark the company's re-entry into the phone business after spinning-off its cellphone unit Reliance Communications in 2005, to brother Anil Ambani, as part of the division of the business empire built by their late father, Dhirubhai Ambani.
The auctions are crucial for Bharti and Vodafone India, whose bandwidth usage rights are set to expire in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. Reliance Communications also has permits up for renewal in some regions in November this year. The companies will have to bid successfully in the upcoming auction to continue operations. The rights to use bandwidth last for 20 years. Idea Cellular and the Indian unit of Telenor, are also bidding in the hopes of expanding their services.
The Department of Telecommunications, which will conduct the auctions, will scrutinize the bids and announce the final list of bidders on 20 January 2014.
Coal India dropped 5.52% to Rs 272.75. The stock turned ex-dividend on Friday, 17 January 2014, for dividend of Rs 29 per share for the year ending March 2014. Before turning ex-dividend, the stock offered a dividend yield of 9.58% based on the closing price of Rs 302.70 on Thursday, 16 January 2014.

Source : Capitalmarket.com

Sowmya

Smart Investor
Equity Research Division


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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Ashok Leyland - Sell on rallies

Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying the stock of Ashok Leyland (Rs 51.1).

Following a turnaround from Rs 12.5 in December 2009, the stock was on a long-term uptrend until it peaked out around Rs 81 in November 2010. A downtrend that commenced from its November peak was arrested in the range between Rs 45 and Rs 47 during this February, after retracing 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the stock's previous up move.

Moreover, the stock has significant long-term support in Rs 45-47 range. Last week, the stock took support from this range for the second time and bounced up forming a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern on May 19 by gaining 4 per cent. Reinforcing the bullish momentum, the stock subsequently jumped 5 per cent breaching its 21-day moving average.

A positive divergence in the daily relative strength index and daily stochastic oscillator backs the stocks' trend reversal. We notice that there is an increase in volumes over the past two trading sessions supporting the up move.

The daily moving average converge divergence indicator has signalled a sell. Daily RSI is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering into neutral region from the bearish zone.

Though the down trendline is still in place, we take a contrarian stance on the stock considering the above mentioned bullish facts. We are bearish on the stock from a medium-term perspective.

We believe that Ashok Leyland has the potential of moving lower to sub 40 levels owing to the headwinds. The high interest regime couple with slow down in infrastructure could lead to declines in sales. We expect the price to be lower and reach our medium-term price target of Rs 40. However we don't rule out a minor pause spike around Rs 55.5. Investors with medium-term perspective can consider buying selling the stock in the short term. Long term / portfolio investors can consider buying below 40 levels and hold for 15-18 months !

The following table clearly shows the negative bias of the scrip during the last 1 year

Time Span Price Change %Change
Today 49.65 1.30 2.68
Week 47.90 0.45 0.93
Month 51.80 -3.45 -6.66
Three Months 57.90 -9.55 -16.49
Six Months 63.90 -15.55 -24.33
One Year 62.60 -14.25 -22.76


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Monday, November 30, 2009

Market Analysis 30 Nov 09

Rattled by Dubai’s debt crisis, stock markets slumped on fears that although the major central banks have stabilised the financial system, some of the ‘excesses’ simply refuse to disappear and may disrupt the system again. Erasing most gains of three-week rally, the benchmark indices fell by more than two per cent during the week ended. On the BSE, the Sensex fell by 390 points to end at 16,632 and the Nifty on the NSE shed 110 points to close at 4,942. However, the bounce back from intra-day lows on Friday reflects the bullish undertone and resilience of the markets. Fears over tax on capital inflows and withdrawal of stimulus packages have been allayed by the finance minister, but the impact of rising food inflation is a cause of concern. Dubai’s effort to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won’t be enough to protect markets. Differentiation between riskier and less risky asset classes in which correlatio-ns have risen, making it difficult to make money simply by riding the liquidity wave from central banks. Stock volatility will jump sharply as countries and companies default on loans. Markets still look bullish with the government giving big push to the reform agenda but the rise in risk aversion is likely and investors have to start focusing even more on the fundamentals. For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading range of 16,250 and 17,100 for the Sensex and 4,800 and 5,120 for the Nifty. Crucial supports for the indices are last week lows at 16,210 and 4,806. Traders fear that below the-se levels, indices might test lows of November series. Immediate resistances for the indices are at 16,880 and 17,100 and 4,980 and 5,060. Be bearish only below 4,850-level on closing basis. Whatever is hard to do in the market is generally the right thing; and whatever is easy is usually the wrong thing to do. Futures & Options Despite hyper volatility and wild swings of November series, the rollover of positions to the December series was in line with last three months average at 84 per cent. However, stock futures witnessed a lower rollover reflecting the lack of confidence among the market players over the near term direction of many individual stocks. Option activity indicates a strong support for Nifty at 4,800-4,850 level and strong resistance at 5,050-5,100 level. Adopt strangle strategy in index options by buying Nifty4,900 strike put and Nifty5,000 strike call options, to take advantage of directional change in the markets. Sectors that witnessed higher rollover are metal, banking, telecom, engineering, sugar and power. Stock futures looking good for further gains are Ranbaxy, BEL, Lupin, PFC, India Cement, BPCL, JP Hydro, Neyveli and GAIL. Among the momentum pack, Educomp, IFCI, Suzlon, Unitech and Hotel Leela may rally further from the current levels. Punters predict some speculative activity in the ADAG group. Buy Reliance Infra and Reliance Capital keeping last week lows as stop loss for sharp returns. Lower crude prices may trigger further buying in PSU refiners. Pharma stocks are attracting buying on every dip. Buy on declines Dr Reddy, Ranbaxy, Cipla, Aurobindo, Biocon and Lupin. Corrections in banking and auto stocks are likely to be short lived ones. Buy state owned banks as rise in interest rates to curb inflation is expected in next couple of quarters. Use sharp declines to accumulate stocks in auto and auto ancillary sectors. Stock scan Jain Irrigation Systems, a company synonymous for drip irrigation equipment, has over the years emerged as a diversified multi-product agri company. It is the largest manufacturer of polyethylene pipes and also the largest manufacturer of Tissue Culture Banana Plants in India. It has world class food processing facilities for dehydration of onions, vegetables and production of fruit purees, concentrates and pulp. IFC, a affiliate of World Bank has picked up stake in the company. Buy at current levels for a target price of Rs 1200 in the next few months. Volumes have improved remarkably in HBL Power after the stock has gone ex-split. The company is a pioneer in the design, development and manufacture of specialised batteries, DC systems and associated electronics. It supplies to aviation, defence, railways, telecom and other engineering industries. Buy HBL Power at current levels for price target of Rs 100 in medium term. Cravatex is one of the largest manufacturers of sports and casual wear for leading companies like FILA and Slazenger. The company represents several reputed international brands of fitness equipment in India and offers a range of advanced international beauty therapies catering the new quest for fitness, exercise, health and beauty. Buy this only ISO-certified and listed company in the sector for unexpected a price target of Rs 275 in the medium term. C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns. Source : deccan.com Bought to you by Ingenious Investor Equity Research Division Ravina Consulting No.429 Mahavir Tuscan Near Hoodi Circle, Whitefield Mahadevapura Post BANGALORE 560048 Read - www.ingeniousinvestor.blogspot.com Follow us - www.twitter.com/smartinvestor

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Indian Stock Markets BSE Sensex & NSE Nifty Outlook for 16-20 Nov 09

Derivatives: Absence of global or domestic triggers may induce horizontal moves going ahead

Though F&O suggest bullishness, the absence of any global or domestic triggers can lead to some sideway moment during the forthcoming days, but retail investors remaining nervous

Following the global market the Indian market continued to spiral up during the week ended 13th November 2009. The spiral-up during the previous week was mainly driven by the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) as well as the Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) who were net buyers through-out the week while the participation by retail investors were irrelevant as far as the rise is concerned. They remained net sellers during the week. It shows evident signs of nervousness prevalent in the retail investors mind. Going ahead the market will closely watch any signs of unwinding of US Dollar carry trade. Many are borrowing the dollar and investing in high yielding risky asset, which has been a major factor behind the rally in the Indian market as well. Any rise in interest rate in the US besides US$ strengthening will reverse the carry trade trend and would hit the market severely. The hardening inflation in the domestic market besides policy tightening going ahead will have a significant bearing on the domestic market. The market continued its growth momentum during the previous week with the Nifty rising by 200.30 points to close the week at 4996.45. The Nifty future closed at a premium of 6.20 points at 5002.65 on Friday. The average futures & options (F&O) volume during the week ended 13th November 2009 was Rs 79228.39 crore.

In the F&O segment both the nifty future and some of the front-line stock future significantly added open interest (OI). For e.g. during the week the nifty added 7.92 lakh shares in OI and the total OI stood at 2.77 crore shares as on Friday. 9.71 lakh shares of OI were added during Friday.

Reliance added 55 thousand shares whereas Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 13.45 lakh shares and 24.81 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week ended 13th November 2009. Other major front-line stock futures viz- Infosys, ICICI Bank, DLF and Maruti added OI during the week under review, whereas Unitech, Sail and Rcom shed OI.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
Date Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total
30-Oct-09 19335 20280 36957 1765 78337
3-Nov-09 18772 18585 42334 1883 81574
4-Nov-09 16337 18084 35787 2032 72239
5-Nov-09 24104 21408 48721 2265 96499
6-Nov-09 16576 19259 39632 1929 77395
9-Nov-09 15328 17800 38812 1863 73802
10-Nov-09 16991 21511 40210 2296 81008
11-Nov-09 17546 20564 46544 2310 86964
12-Nov-09 18831 19816 41012 2431 82090
13-Nov-09 15878 16889 37663 1849 72278
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 173.67 crore shares, thus gaining by 2.04 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day. Index future added just 11 lakh shares in OI whereas the major addition was witnessed by the stock futures. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 13th November 2009

Open Interest (OI)* Change**
Market wide 173.67 2.04
Index Future 3.23 0.11
Stock Future 131.59 0.54
Index Options 11.96 0.25
Stock options 26.89 1.14
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE

In the nifty option segment in-the-money strike nifty call witnessed unwinding of OI whereas at-the-money and out-of-the money nifty strikes witnessed addition of OI signifying fresh call buying at these strikes. However both out-of-the money and in-the-money nifty puts witnessed aggressive put writing signifying strong bullishness as far as the option indicators are concerned.

For the full week under review the nifty 5000 and 5100 strike call added 4.58 lakh shares and 14.34 lakh shares in OI and the total OI of both these strikes as on Friday stood at 38.72 lakh shares and 33.22 lakh shares respectively. The 4800 and 4900 strike puts added 32.25 lakh shares and 43.19 lakh shares in OI respectively during the week under review. Further the 5000 and 5100 strike puts added 32.96 lakh shares and 7.26 lakh shares in OI. Such aggressive put writing of these strikes indicates bullishness as the market expects the nifty underlying to easily cross these strike levels. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (November series)

OI
Call
Nifty 4700 2278650
Nifty 4900 3045900
Nifty 5000 3872050
Nifty 5300 1869600


Put
Nifty 4800 6239200
Nifty 4900 5614200
Nifty 5000 4621700
Nifty 5100 1075350
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009
Scrip Name OI* Change* % Change
TECHM 948600 213600 18
SUNTV 339000 76000 18
JSWSTEEL 3567508 763024 18
PATELENG 726000 127000 15
BOSCHLTD 3000 500 14
PATNI 1004900 133900 12
NAGARCONST 2090000 260000 11
IVRCLINFRA 2666000 286000 10
TCS 4911000 516000 10
SINTEX 547400 56000 9
* No of shares
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in November series stock futures on 13th November 2009
Scrip Name OI* Change* % Change
BANKINDIA 1924700 -265050 -16
BRFL 5027800 -525550 -12
PTC 5205250 -538150 -12
APIL 680400 -70200 -12
ROLTA 3357000 -340200 -11
FSL 25156000 -2432000 -11
LITL 2139214 -160776 -8
UNIONBANK 1523550 -114450 -8
AXISBANK 2807100 -180000 -7
POLARIS 3679200 -226800 -7
* No of shares
Source: NSE

Although the market remained at high and the F&O indication are also suggesting bullishness, a lot will depend on the activity in the foreign market in the absence of any major domestic triggers. The market may continue its growth momentum citing global market. Also in the absence of any global or domestic triggers some sideway moment is expected during the proceeding days. The nervousness among retail investors still persists as evident from their lack of participation in the recent rally.

Source:Capital Market

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