Well, the Union Budget is over now and with it perhaps also the euphoria. As market participants wake up to the real impact of the budget proposals, it is quite likely that much of initial jubilation may die down. We suggest traders to set a bear put spread on Nifty to benefit from such a weakness. You can do this by buying Nifty March 4,900 put option and simultaneously selling Nifty March 4,800 put. This would result in a net initial debit as the strategy involves buying in the money put as against selling one that is out of money. In this case, you will have to shell out Rs 105 for buying Nifty March 4,900 put, while you will receive Rs 70 when you write Nifty March 4,800 put. On the whole, the spread will cost you Rs 35/share.
You can time the purchase and sale of options depending on the day's market movement to optimise your cost. Note that for the coming week, we expect the markets to trend upwards first before it begins to fall lower.
Maximum profit potential: The maximum profit for this spread will occur when the Nifty moves below the strike price of the sold option, i.e. 4,800. The maximum profit, however, will be limited to the difference between the two strikes minus the net debit paid or the cost of setting the spread. In this case, it will be Rs 65.
Maximum loss potential: When your spread is totally out of money i.e. when Nifty value is higher than the 4,900, the maximum loss that you can suffer will be limited to the net debit paid, Rs 35 – that is the money that was spent initially in setting the bear put spread.
This means in essence you would be taking a maximum risk of Rs 35 to earn a maximum profit of Rs 65. Traders with a slightly more bearish view can tweak the strike price of the sold option lower to 4,700. This will result in a slightly higher risk-return payoff. Traders can also consider going short on Nifty with a stop at 5,025.
When to exit?
Traders should consider booking profits and closing the positions as soon as the underlying trends below the strike price of the sold put option. If you feel that the likelihood of the underlying moving down is low, close the position prematurely.