Monday, February 1, 2010

BSE NSE Weekly Review 01 Feb 2010

Huge resistance at 5000 level for the nifty

Outlook currently remains down ward bias, but market craves for positive cues in the domestic / global front, which can help it move northwards

The week started the week with extreme negative bias as the 3rd quarter result season closed besides negative macro trends in the global economy. During the week ended 29th January 2010, the S&P CNX Nifty corrected 153.95 points to close at 4882.05. In the future & option segment it was the expiry week and the rollover was smooth with short positions being created both at the nifty and the stock futures segment. The nifty February series added 2.26 crore shares in open interest (OI) during the week under review. Some of the stock futuresalso added OI, most of them short positions. For e.g. Reliance February futures added 83.38 lakh shares in OI while Tata Steel and Tata Motors added 1.18 crore shares and 80.15 lakh shares in OI during the week ended 29th January 2010.

The nifty future continued to trade at a discount all throughout the week.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 29th January 2010
Open Interest (OI)*Change**
Market wide169.079.85
Index Future3.370.22
Stock Future142.554.80
Index Options9.190.86
Stock options13.973.98
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 169.070 crore shares, thus rising by 9.85 crore shares as compared to the previous day. Major activity was witnessed in the stock futures & options segment. (See table OI breakup).

Most active Nifty options (February 2010 series)
Nifty 48002000850
Nifty 50003799350
Nifty 51002768500
Nifty 52002933950
Nifty 45002089750
Nifty 46003031050
Nifty 47003470900
Nifty 48004877250
Source: NSE

Besides all throughout the week the trend in the nifty option front was not positive as significant call writing was witnessed at 4700 to 5300 strikes simultaneously puts witnessed addition of OI with buying of 4700 to 4900 strikes. Now these indicate strong resistance at 5000 levels for the underlying.

The most active options in the February series were the 4700 to 5000 strikes. The call option on the above mentioned strikes witnessed aggressive writing, while the puts witnessed addition of OI due to fresh buying. All throughout the week the 5000 strike call witnessed 29.96-lakh-share addition in OI while the same strike put witnessed 4.51 lakh additions in OI. Put OI addition was more profound at 4700, 4800 and 4900 strikes while for the calls it was at 4900 and 5000 strike. (See most active Nifty options table).

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010
Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
* No of shares
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in February series stock futures on 29th January 2010

Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
* No of shares
Source: NSE

The market may seem oversold at this level although any upward trigger will depend onthe global market due to lack of domestic trigger. 5000 levels for the nifty will remain a key resistance. The outlook currently remains down ward bias, however any positive indicators for the market domestically or internationally may witness significant upward correction.

Source :

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