Sunday, December 20, 2009

BSE NSE Outlook for 21-24 Dec 09

Market will be extremely volatile with downward bias

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement

The S&P CNX Nifty closed below the psychological 5000 level during 18th December 2009. All throughout the week the market was volatile with negative close on each day. For the full week ended 18th December 2009 the nifty fell 129.60 points to close at 4987.70 on Friday. Speculation that the Reserve Bank may tighten monetary policy and the expectation of CRR hike further dented the market during the day. In the futures and option (F&O) front the market traded mix with rather mix signals although the overall trend was negative. The average volume in the F&O segment during the week under review stood higher at Rs 72936.35 crore. The nifty December future added 2.74 lakh shares in open interest (OI) to take the total OI to 2.45 crore shares while the nifty January future added 5.80 lakh shares in OI on Friday 18th December 2009 to take the total OI to 34.89 lakh shares. All throughout the week the nifty December future shed OI to the tune of 25.93 lakh shares.

On the stock futures front most of the frontline stock futures shed December OI with simultaneous increase in OI in the January series. Most of the OI increase in January series was due to fresh short positions being created. December stock futures overall shed 2.04 crore shares in OI on Friday while 2.87 crore shares OI was added in the January stock futures. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors shed 4.58 lakh shares, 21.41 lakh shares and 27.37 lakh shares in OI during the week under review. ICICI Bank, Sail, Bharti, Rcom and Maruti also shed OI during the week.

Reliance January OI increased by 1.82 lakh shares to take the total OI to 7.96 lakh shares, January series Tata Steel and Tata Motors OI increased by 2.04 lakh shares and 6.42 lakh shares to 26.14 lakh shares and 28.15 lakh shares respectively. January series ICICI Bank OI increased by 5.40 lakh shares to 24.07 lakh shares, while Bharti OI increased by 1.77 lakh shares to 22.91 lakh shares.

In the nifty option front there were negative signals as fresh call writing was observed in the 4900 to 5200 strikes. Besides 4800 and 4900 strike puts witnessed fresh addition of OI.

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.)
DateIndex FuturesStock FuturesIndex OptionsStock OptionsTotal
27-Nov-09246651989549581193496075
30-Nov-09174641719930912197367548
1-Dec-09126061779328166209160657
2-Dec-09118661983122893212656715
3-Dec-09145591820025938196460660
4-Dec-09174121749034873175671531
7-Dec-09140021478027395186458041
8-Dec-09176411774131994205269429
9-Dec-09152591693727174194561314
10-Dec-09144151505926852165857983
11-Dec-09174401612135873189871332
14-Dec-09163421521240475166673694
15-Dec-09154501663835621201369721
16-Dec-09168241738039950197776131
17-Dec-09165611655038810177773698
18-Dec-09153971558438544191271437
Source: NSE

Overall the market wide OI on Friday stood at 192.97 crore shares, thus gaining by 1.86 crore shares as compared to the previous trading day, however OI increased by 9.76 crore shares as compared to the previous week. Increase in week-on-week OI was due to increased activity in Stock futures and option segment whose OI increased by 4.44 crore shares and 4.49 crore shares respectively on a week-on-week basis. (See table OI breakup).

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 18th December 2009
Open Interest (OI)*Change**
Market wide192.971.86
Index Future3.130.12
Stock Future145.770.85
Index Options12.790.24
Stock options31.280.66
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE

Fresh aggressive call writing was witnessed in the 4900, 5000, 5100 and 5200 strike thus indicating bearish tone. The OI of these strikes increased by 2 lakh shares, 11.7 lakh shares, 7.53 lakh shares and 3.73 lakh shares respectively. However there was some put writing as well on 4800 and 4900 strikes. In the January series there was call writing at 5000 and 5100 and 5400 strikes, while there was aggressive put buying in the 4800, 4900 and 5000 strikes. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (December series)
OI
Call
Nifty 49001656700
Nifty 50004525150
Nifty 51007719150
Nifty 52007200250
Put
Nifty 48004730500
Nifty 49004937300
Nifty 50004780150
Nifty 51002197850
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
ASIANPAINT14800420040
CROMPGREAV4890007000017
DRREDDY5460006000012
TITAN8940474169
MCDOWELL-N901250542506
LUPIN418600245006
RECLTD24609001423506
IDEA3198690018306006
BALRAMCHIN1870320010344006
BAJAJHIND127494756469505
* No of shares
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in December series stock futures on 18th December 2009

Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
GLAXO36900-54900-60
GTL2845500-701250-20
APIL534000-79200-13
PANTALOONR2868750-386750-12
CAIRN10205000-1265000-11
INFOSYSTCH2638800-319000-11
ROLTA2500200-300600-11
BHEL1572300-177600-10
OFSS420600-47100-10
CONCOR6750-750-10
* No of shares
Source: NSE

As the market enters the expiry week the market looks extremely volatile, with clear down side movement.

Source : CapitalMarket

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