Monday, November 16, 2009

Market Khabar 16 Nov 09

Propelled by robust industrial numbers and positive global cues markets extended their gains during the week ended. On the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the Sensex gained 690 points to end the week at 16,849 and the Nifty on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) scored double century to close barely below 5,000-mark at 4,999.

The government's assurance that there will be no withdrawal of stimulus packages till the global economy stabilises, fast track clearance of disinvestment of some public sector units and a renewed buying from institutional investors kept the market sentiment positive.

Keep an eye on the four important Bills to be tabled in the Parliament in the Winter Session. A quick passage will indicate the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's resolve to implement reforms on the fast track. Barring any unforeseen negative cues from global front or any "ruckus" in Parliament over the UPA government's aggressive reform agenda, markets are expected to remain range bound with upward bias.
For the week ahead, chartists predict a trading band of 16,540-17,360 for the Sensex and 4,800-5,260 for the Nifty.

Continuation of high intra-day volatility is likely; monitor positions cautiously. Be bearish only below 4,900 on closing basis. Cut longs if Nifty trades below 4,860 level. Market players expect Nifty to face a strong resistance at 5,100 level; 4,900-4,950 level to act as strong support. New short term highs for indices not
ruled out during the week ahead. The best part of the stock market is that "everything repeats". This is huge
plus, and a huge secret to making money with stocks.

* Recession-proof hospital stocks are back in the buying lists of savvy fund managers. Apollo Hospitals and Fortis Healthcare are good buys at current levels.

* Management's conversion of warrants in Apollo Hospitals clearly vindicates their confidence. Positive news on cards in next few weeks say insiders. Buy for target price of Rs850 in medium term.

* Fortis Healthcare is reportedly "snapping" up another hospital chain to strengthen its pan India footprint. Buy on declines for target price of Rs200.

* Select midcap and smallcap stocks like Camlin Fine Chemicals, Pace Textiles and Marg are attracting the attention of shrewd market players. Buy on declines the counters for steady returns in medium term.

* Results of Dish TV clearly indicate that a turnaround is on cards in next few quarters. Buy for target price of Rs 60 in next few months.

* Pace Textiles is a `purely' speculative bet doing rounds in the markets. Sharp spurt is indicated by sources close to the management. Buy only for speculative gains.

F & O
Expectedly, Nifty futures logged 200 points on short-covering coupled with a fresh buying interest. Overall, open interest is now just a shade above Rs 1,00,000-lakh-mark at Rs 1,11,000 crore. Nifty OI PCR has jumped to 1.56, indicaton of shorts getting piled up.

A strong short squeeze expected in near term. Buy OTM call option of 5,200-strike for unexpected returns tip punters.

Hedge portfolio longs by buying 4,900-strike put option. Among the stock futures that witnessed long build up are JSW Steel, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Voltas, Hindustan Constructions Company, IDBI Bank and Biocon.

Ahead JSW Energy IPO, sources indicate a price target of Rs 1,150 for JSW Steel. Pharma stocks are attracting a renewed buying interest from savvy market players. Rerating to trigger fresh buying in Biocon and Orchid, say market watchers. Banking and technology stocks are witnessing good buying interest at lower levels.
Midcap IT stocks FSL, Polaris, Mphasis and Patni may move fresh buying interest. Among the smaller PSU banks, positive bias indicated in Dena Bank, Indian Bank, Andhra Bank and Vijaya Bank. Reports of M&A activity in PSU banks are resurfacing again.

Among the side counters KFA, GSPL, Kotak, BEL and Century look good for further gains. Market cycles that used to take years to play out can now happen in months, sometimes even in a single day. Flexibility is the only sensible response to volatile markets and stocks with generous trading ranges.

C. Kutumba Rao is a Hyderabad-based stock market analyst. The views expressed and the recommendations made are those of the author. Readers are strongly recommended to consult their financial advisors before making any financial investments. This newspaper is not liable for investment decisions made on the basis of recommendations in these columns.

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