Sunday, September 13, 2009

BSE NSE Weekly review and forecast

The market faces marginal resistance to cross the 4850 levels, but much depends on the international market and mood; index may exhibit horizontal movement during the next week

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 3.1% to close at 4825.05 during the week ended 11th September 2009. Although the market started the week on a strong positive note with a spike of 102.50 points during the 1st day of the week, it continued to remain checked all throughout the remaining part of the week.

The industrial output data for the month of July 2009 that came out on Friday showed growth of 6.8% compared with 6.9% growth in the same month last year. The industrial output for the month of June 2009 revised higher to 8.2%. Besides the weather office said on Thursday rainfall was 21 % above average in the week to 9th September 2009 continuing the upturn since mid-August but total seasonal rainfall was a fifth short of normal since the season began with the driest June in eight decades. In the derivative market the week started with aggressive call buying of 4900 to 5200 strikes with simultaneous put writing of 4600 to 4800 strikes, thus showing highly bullish signals. However after that the market remained checked and towards the end of the week it seemed that there is marginal resistance for the underlying above the current levels. Simultaneously there is support as well at lower levels as put writing below 4800 continued. The Nifty added open interest all throughout the week although there was marginal short covering during Friday. For the full week the OI in Nifty increased by 21.52 lakh shares. Thus the total OI in Nifty as on 11th September stood at 2.99 crore shares.

The total volumes in the F&O segment remained impressive all throughout the week. The average volume for the full week was Rs 63246.90 crore. The volume on Friday 11thSeptember 2009 was Rs 61648.13crore. The overall market OI increased by 4.04 crore shares and the total OI for the full F&O market stood at 169.38 crore shares as on 11thSeptember 2009. The major portion of the OI addition was contributed by the stock futuresand stock options. (See table OI breakup).

On Friday the S&P Nifty after remaining extremely volatile finally closed 5.65 points higher at 4825.05. The day began on a positive front; however the market dipped post the IIP data announcement although towards the end some short covering pulled back the underlying to positive territory.

Open Interest (OI) break-up as on 11th September 2009
Open Interest (OI)*Change**
Market wide169.384.04
Index Future3.33-0.01
Stock Future127.452.16
Index Options10.760.43
Stock options27.831.47
* No of shares in crores
** Change is vis-à-vis previous day
Source: NSE

In the Nifty option front the week started with aggressive call buying of 4900 to 5200 level strikes, whereas there was aggressive put writing of 4600, 4700, and 4800 strikes. However towards the end of the week it seemed that the nifty at the current level faces marginal resistance due to put buying below 4800 strikes and call writing above 4800 strikes. The most active calls on Friday were 4800 and 4900 strikes. Both these strikes added 1.36 lakh shares and 3.8 lakh shares in OI and the total OI for these strikes increased to 33.37 lakh shares and 51.76 lakh shares. On the other hand the most active puts were 4600, 4700 and 4800 strikes. All these strikes added 4.01 lakh shares, 3.11 lakh shares and 3.36 lakh shares in OI. (See most active Nifty options table).

Most active Nifty options (September series)
Nifty 48003336950
Nifty 49005175850
Nifty 50004351700
Nifty 51001852700
Nifty 45005085300
Nifty 46006585600
Nifty 47004936650
Nifty 48002995950
Source: NSE

Volume in the Futures & Options segment of the NSE (Turnover (Rs. Crore.) (September contract)
DateIndex FuturesStock FuturesIndex OptionsStock OptionsTotal
Source: NSE

The index put call ratio fell to 1.24 on 11th September 2009 as compared to 1.38 during the previous day, whereas the stock put call ratio increased to 0.41 as compared to 0.37 during the previous day. Thus the market wide put call ratio was 1.17 on 11th September 2009.

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) gainers in September series stock futures as on 11th September 2009
Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
* No of shares
Source: NSE

Top 10 Open Interest (OI) losers in September series stock futures as on 11th September 2009
Scrip NameOI*Change*% Change
* No of shares
Source: NSE

The nifty future closed at 17 points premium to the underlying. Thus although the market faces marginal resistance to cross the 4850 levels, all will depend upon the international market and mood. In the absence of any major trigger the index may exhibit horizontal movement during the next week.

Source : Capital Market