Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Market Voices 26 May 2009

The global financial crisis is not yet over, says Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on CNBC TV18. The government's goal is to bring back the economy on growth path and budget will be presented in first week of July, he feels. We hope to pass the budget by July end, he says. Massive investment in infrastructure is needed to spur growth, he says. We need a faster pace of investment in infrastructure, he adds. We hope to see more participation from FIIs, he says. I welcome the Bharti-MTN deal, he adds. We see global growth picking up from October, he says.

Buy Ranbaxy with a target of Rs 300 plus and keep a stop loss of Rs 205, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 244, down 8.3% on the BSE.

In a correction, Sensex could see 10000-12000 levels, says Marc Faber, investment guru, on CNBC TV18. Dollar may be oversold and could weaken further, he feels. Global commodity prices to rise if economies improve, he says.

Power and infrastructure space could give phenomenal returns going forward, says Sanjeev Motha of East India Securities, on NDTV Profit. Buy Tata Power and Reliance Power, IVRCL Infra and GMR Infra and ABB and Siemens in any correction and keep in the portfolio for long-term gains, he adds. In the midcaps and smallcaps space, buy Jyoti Structures, KEC Intermational, Apar Industries and WS Industries, he says.

Post the election results there is a renewed interest in long-term buying and today's correction will be welcome for those who missed the rally, says Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities, on CNBC TV18. A lot of buying is happening and will happen now as there is clarity on the government front, he says. Ahead of the budget, if the market senses something positive on the policy front, Nifty could run up to 5500, he adds.

This is now a buy on dips market, says Nishit Shah of IDFC on CNBC TV18. There are a lot of buying opportunities still in the midcap space, he adds. There is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines and the market may surprise on the upside ahead of the budget, he feels.


Buy HUL with a target of Rs 260 plus and keep a stop loss of Rs 225, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 230, down 0.75% on the BSE.

The midcaps had run-up and now profit booking is setting in, says Deven Choksey of KR Choksey, on Zee Business. Nifty is likely to be in a range for the next few weeks, he adds.

Citi maintains buy on Bharti Airtel with a target of Rs 840 and Macquaire has a target of Rs 975 on the stock, reports NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 770, down 5.1% on the BSE.

Buy Bharti Airtel with a target of Rs 900-1000 (it has been an underperformer), says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 770, down 5.1% on the BSE.

Buy Moser Baer, Kale Consultants, Balrampur Chini, UTV Software, PVR and Prime Focus in any correction and keep in the portfolio for long-term gains, says Salil Sharma of Kapoor & Sharma Company, on CNBC TV18.

Hold Dish TV with a target of Rs 60-62, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 45, down 2.8% on the BSE.

Buy Tata Tea with a target of Rs 725 and keep a stop loss of Rs 630, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 695, down 0.2% on the BSE.

Buy PTC with a target of Rs 90 and keep a stop loss of Rs 80 for long-term investment keep a stop loss of Rs 65, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 86, down 3.6% on the BSE.

The market is looking bad, trading weak as pressure from global markets continue. Sensex is trading at 13659, down 253 points and Nifty is at 4146, down 91 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 2.42% and BSE Smallcap index is down 1.84%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 416 against declines of 841 on the NSE.

Buy Great Eastern Shipping with a target of Rs 290 and keep a stop loss of Rs 230, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 254, down 2.5% on the BSE.

Buy Tata Steel around Rs 250-300 for the long term in any correction with a target of Rs 472 till June 10, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 360, down 2% on the BSE.

Buy Hero Honda with a target of Rs 1450 and keep a stop loss of Rs 1150, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1335, up 1.1% on the BSE.

Buy DCB at current levels with a target of Rs 50-55 in a month and Rs 100 in the long term, says Prasad Kushe, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 38, down 5.6% on the BSE.

Buy ICICI Bank with a target of Rs 800 and keep a stop loss of Rs 550, says Neerja Jain of crnindia.com on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 666, down 5% on the BSE.

Buy Bajaj Hindustan with a target of Rs 170 and keep a stop loss of Rs 130, says MB Singh, technical analyst, on Zee Business. The stock is currently trading at Rs 139, down 3.5% on the BSE.

The Asian markets wrapped up a poor session while European markets have opened weak. Poor global cues are putting pressure on our market that is trading weak. Sensex is trading at 13721, down 191 points and Nifty is at 4159, down 77 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is down 2.25% and BSE Smallcap index is down 2%. The market breadth is negative with advances at 599 against declines of 656 on the NSE.

Buy DLF at Rs 310 with target of Rs 400, says Neera Jain, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. Keep stop loss closing below Rs 300, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 342.60, down 2.7% on the BSE.

Buy GHCL at Rs 44 with short-term target of Rs 55 and long-term target of Rs 75, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 37, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 42.95, down 1.9% on the BSE.

Hold Indiabulls Financial Services with short-term target of Rs 235, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 175, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 204.95, up 5% on the BSE.

While the FIIs have sold Nifty Futures worth Rs 1000 crore over last two days, I expect markets to consolidate at these levels with some profit booking, says Karun Mutha of Investsmart on CNBC TV18. The Nifty should close around 4200 on expiry and the midcap outperformance may continue, he adds.

Hold Bharti Airtel for returns of 16-18% in the long term, says P Phani Sekhar of Angel Broking on NDTV Profit. The stock is currently trading at Rs 776, down 4.4% on the BSE.

Buy Patni Computers only if it comes down to Rs 180-200, says Neera Jain, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. Keep stop loss closing below Rs 170, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 217, up 0.4% on the BSE.

Buy Indowind Energy at Rs 33 with short-term target of Rs 45 and longer-term target of Rs 60, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 25, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 34.70, up 5.2% on the BSE.

Hold JP Associates with target of Rs 200, says Neera Jain, technical analyst, on NDTV Profit. Keep stop loss of Rs 160-165, she adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 184.25, down 0.7% on the BSE.

Buy Jaiprakash Hydro-Power with target of Rs 70-75 in one or two weeks, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 66.20, up 2.9% on the BSE.

The market at noon appears to be making marginal recovery. Sensex is trading at 13939, up 26 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 4229, down 8 points. CNX Midcap index is up 0.2% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.8%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 894 against declines of 349 on the NSE.

Buy Berger Paints at Rs 44 with short-term target of Rs 52 and longer-term target of of Rs 60, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 38, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 44, up 0.6% on the BSE.

Buy NTPC at current levels with short-term target of Rs 230, says Vijay Bhambwani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep long-term target of Rs 275 in 12-15 months, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 208, down 2.2% on the BSE.

Buy Macmillan India at Rs 76 with short-term target of Rs 100 and longer-term target of Rs 120, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 65, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 82.50, up 5.6% on the BSE.
Buy Chambal Fertilisers with targets of Rs 75 and then 80 in the short term, says Mitesh Thacker, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 63.90, down 0.9% on the BSE.

Hold DS Kulkarni with target of Rs 75-77, says Pradeep Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss below Rs 50, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 61.35, up 6.4% on the BSE.

Buy Era Infra with short-term target of Rs 140-145 and six-months' target of Rs 170, says Nitin Murarka of SMC Global on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 85, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 118, up 13.4% on the BSE.

We expect the positive momentum to continue till expiry, says Ambareesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking on CNBC TV18. However, he believes that the rally seems overdone and that we could see a correction after that. His advice is to book profits at higher levels.

Buy Bajaj Hindustan with target of Rs 160, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 133, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 141.35, down 2.2% on the BSE.

Buy Great Offshore with stop loss of Rs 310, says Pradeep Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business. If it crosses Rs 344 it can go up to Rs 370, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 355.60, up 7.6% on the BSE.

An hour into opening, the market is trading choppy. Frontline stocks are seeing some selling pressure while midcap and smallcap stocks continue to make gains. The Asian markets are trading weak. Sensex is trading at 13915, up 2 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 4224, down 14 points. CNX Midcap index is up 0.7% and BSE Smallcap index is up 2.3%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 976 against declines of 250 on the NSE.

Book profits in NIIT, says Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking on CNBC TV18. He advises staying away from IT stocks for the moment. The stock is currently trading at Rs 51.35, down 3.4% on the BSE.

Buy Educomp Solutions with target of Rs 3000-3050, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 2885.45, up 0.1% on the BSE.

Buy DLF with target of Rs 400, says Ashwani Gujral, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. Keep stop loss of Rs 315-320, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 355.25, up 0.9% on the BSE.

Buy Ranbaxy only if it closes above Rs 270, says Hardik Jain, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep target of Rs 350, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 259, down 2.9% on the BSE.

Buy Cairn India when it comes down to Rs 180, says Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 217, up 1.4% on the BSE.

Hold Idea Cellular with target of Rs 95, says Pradeep Surekha, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss below Rs 65, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 74.75, up 2.5% on the BSE.

Intra-day traders can sell BEML, says Hemen Kapadia, technical analyst, on CNBC TV18. The stock is currently trading at Rs 761, up 1% on the BSE.

Buy Videocon with intra-day target of Rs 175, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 155, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 171.10, up 6.1% on the BSE.

Buy Aban Offshore at current levels with target of Rs 1060, says Akshita Deshmukh, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 917, up 1.7% on the BSE.

Buy Tata Power on dips at Rs 960-970, says Hardik Jain, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. The stock is currently trading at Rs 1070.10, down 0.6% on the BSE.

Buy Satyam with intra-day target of Rs 60, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 53, he adds. The stock is currently trading at Rs 56.50, up 3.8% on the BSE.

The market opens on a flat and quiet note. The Asian markets are trading mixed. Sensex is trading at 13958, up 45 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 4240, up 2 points. CNX Midcap index is up 1.4% and BSE Smallcap index is up 1.8%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 666 against declines of 61 on the NSE.

Buy GMR Infra with intra-day target of Rs 175, says Anil Singhvi, market expert, on CNBC Awaaz. Keep stop loss of Rs 162, he adds. The stock is at Rs 164.70, down 2.6% on the BSE.

Buy Gitanjali Gems at Rs 117 with target of Rs 133, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 110, she adds. The stock is at Rs 116.30, up 17.8% on the BSE.

Buy JP Associates at Rs 185 with target of Rs 192, says Simi Bhaumik, technical analyst, on Zee Business. Keep stop loss of Rs 180, she adds. The stock is at Rs 186.10, up 7.5% on the BSE.


----

BSE / NSE Shares analysis for 26 May 2009

The market opened on a cautious but firm note this morning but spent not more than a an hour in the positive territory today. Though Asian stocks were a bit mixed when trade commenced this morning, they declined sharply and settled lower. European markets opened weak and that proved a strong enough trigger for the bears to go on a rampage this afternoon.

The Sensex ended provisionally at 13,589.37, around 71 points off the day's low, recording a loss of nearly 325 points or 2.23%. The Nifty closed at 4107.70, down 129.85 points or 3.06%.

Barring BSE IT, which ended with a modest gain, the other sectoral indices closed sharply lower today. Realty, capital goods, power, consumer durables, telecom and bank stocks were among the prominent losers.

Infosys Technologies, Hindalco and Wipro ended on a firm note. RComm, Ranbaxy, Tata Motors, NTPC, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and DLF ended lower by 4% - 10%. JP Associates, M&M, ITC, ONGC, RIL, Tata Steel, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, ACC and HDFC Bank also closed with notable losses.

Power Grid, ABB, Reliance Capital, Tata Comm, RPower, Unitech, SAIL, Axis Bank, Idea Cellular, BPCL, Siemens, Cipla, Suzlon Energy and Nalco declined sharply. Hero Honda ended with a sharp gain.

The Karnataka Bank stock opened o na firm note this morning on fairly good quarterly results.
The buoyancy at the counter was due to a sharp rise in the bank's net profit for the quarter ended 31 March 2009. The bank had reported a 3% rise in net profit to Rs 83.14 crore in the said quarter from a net profit of Rs 80.78 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago. The bank had also announced that it will seek shareholders' approval to raise Rs 500 crore through qualified institutional placement (QIP). However, after trading in the positive zone till around mid afternoon, the stock has tumbled into the red. At Rs 133, it is down by as much as 7.3% now.
One holding the stock for long term can stay invested and look at buying more at Rs 110 - 115 levels

LIC Housing Finance Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors at the Board Meeting to be held on June 01, 2009, may also consider further issue of equity shares on preferential basis and/or Qualified Institutional Placements basis. The stock, traded at Rs 429 now, may see some resistance at Rs 450 - 460 levels. One looking at long term can go in for the stock at Rs 360 - 370 levels.

Sugar stocks Bannari Amman, Bajaj Hindustran, Rajshree Sugars, Renuka Sugars, Triveni Engineering and EID Parry are likely to drift lower in the very short run. One holding the stocks with a long term view can stay invested. Others can sell these stocks at sharp rallies and get back into the counter at lower levels.

Automobile stocks are likely to have a slippery ride on fears of a possible hike in fuel prices.
There is a likelihood of the government decontrolling oil prices and if that happens, fuel prices will see a fairly sharp rise. Vehicles sales have also not picked up any significantly. So, automobile stocks are likely to drift down a bit. One with a long term view can buy these stocks at sharp dips.

PSU stocks are likely to be in focus as the government is likely to resurrect the ministry of disinvestments in a bid to raise funds by selling a part of its stake in public sector companies.
NMDC, MMTC, RCF, NLC and STC are likely to see some good upside over a medium term.

IVRCL Infrastructure and GMR Infra can be bought at declines. Though the two stocks are likely to see some weakness in the near term, one holding them can stay invested and buy more in small quantities at dips.

Tata Chemicals (Rs 225) has support at Rs 170 - 180 levels. One holding the stock can stay invested with a stop loss near those levels. The stock can move on to Rs 285 and a strong breakout there can lift it to Rs 330 - 345.

Most of the Asian markets are down in the red today. Korea has suffered the most with its KOSPI going down by over 2%. Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Japanese indices are down by 0.3% - 1%. The Australian markets bounced back after early weakness and ended on a firm note today.

Power Grid, Areva, NTPC and Power Finance Corporation can be picked up at declines in a staggered way. These are stocks for long term and hence one need not worry about any significant drop in their values in the near term. Sharp dips can be used to increase exposure.

NTPC can be retained for good gains over a medium term. The stock, currently traded at Rs 208, can move on to Rs 225 - 230 where it is likely to find some resistance. Over a long run one can see the stock moving past Rs 300.

The market is likely to find some good support at lower levels till expiry of May series derivatives contracts. There will be a decent rally ahead of the Budget but one has got to be extremely selective with regard to fresh exposure. Global economy is showing signs of a recovery but momentum will take a fairly long time to come.

Bank of Baroda has posted a net profit after minority interest, share of earnings in Associates of Rs 23840.80 million for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 15483.80 million for the year ended March 31, 2008. The group's total income has increased from Rs 143066.70 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 182979.10 million for the year ended March 31, 2009.
The PSU bank stock is trading marginally higher at Rs 441.50 now. One holding the stock with a long term plan can stay invested. Fresh buying can be considered at sharp falls.

Bharti Airtel is facing pressure for the second successive session on dilution worries. The stock, which had ended with a sharp loss yesterday, is down by around 4.4% at Rs 774 now on selling pressure.

The initial reaction to the Bharti - MTN deal structure is that Bharti's estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the current financial year and the next could be diluted by up to 10%.

Investors looking for some good returns over a 2 -3 year period can go in for ACC, Ambuja Cements, Ultratech and Dalmia Cement at dips. Though a fairly good upmove is possible even over a near run, these stocks are likely to remain a bit slippery. Once the budget is presented and the government spells out its priorities for infrastructure, these stocks are likely to find favour once again.

Metal stocks Hindalco, SAIL, Tata Steel and Sterlite Industries can give good returns over a medium term. Tne can accumulate these stocks in small quantities at declines. Hindustan Zinc, JSW Steel and Ispat Industries can also give fairly solid returns over a medium run.

Market Outlook

The market is likely to remain sideways for a better part of the session. Some volatility is not ruled out as May series derivatives contracts expire this Thursday. The downside is not likely to be much as institutional investors are expected to step in at lower levels.

Sector Watch

Realty, auto and metal stocks are likely to be in focus. Buying is expected to be stock specific in information technology and capital goods sectors. Oil stocks may remain sluggish.

Scrip Watch

ONGC may experience a sluggish outing today on reports that the company stands to lose about Rs 140 billion if it was forced to continue in Cairn India's prolific Rajasthan oilfields as it would have to pay all government levies.

Tata Motors may edge higher as the company is likely to roll over close to $ 1.05 billion of debt remaining out of the $ 3-billion bridge loan it had taken in 2008 to fund the acquisition of British automobile company Jaguar and Land Rover.

Ranbaxy Laboratories may see some sell-off due to profit taking today. Reports that the company has missed the deadline of May 2009 to start supplying raw materials to British drugmaker Astrazeneca may also weigh in to an extent.

RECL may move up on strong quarterly results. The company has posted a net profit of Rs 3,880.40 million for the quarter ended 31 March 2009, a rise of around 65% over a net profit of Rs 2,351 million it had recorded in the corresponding quarter last year.

Macro and Market Factors

Global cues are mixed this morning. Wall Street and the London stock market were closed yesterday on national holidays. The mood on the Asian bourses is somewhat cautious due to lack of triggers.

Back home, action in the derivatives segment ahead of May series expiry is likely to have an impact in the cash market