Tuesday, May 19, 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 19th May 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 

After moving in a highly volatile manner, the market ended in the red today.  Global cues were positive, but the market plunged sharply into the red after opening higher this morning.

A splendid recovery followed and the Sensex very nearly breached the magical 15,000 mark around mid afternoon as it vaulted to 14,930.54, recording a massive jump of almost 1000 points from its morning low.

Finally, a strong round of profit taking pushed the Sensex down to a provisional close at 14,213.73, down 70.48 points or 0.49% from its previous close.  The Nifty ended at 4301.40, down 21.75 points or 0.5%. The Nifty hit a high of 4509.40 and a low of 4167.65 today.  

Realty, bank, capital goods, auto, power and metal stocks closed with impressive gains.  IT stocks tumbled on a strong rupee. Pharma, FMCG and oil stocks too ended on a negative note. 
Midcap and smallcap stocks had a nice ride up the charts today.

DLF vaulted nearly 18%. SBI, Grasim, M&M, RComm, L&T, Maruti and ACC gained 6% - 10.5%.  ICICI Bank, ONGC, Reliance Infra, BHEL and Tata Steel also ended on a buoyant note.  Reliance Capital, Nalco, ABB, Unitech, Siemens, SAIL, RPower and PNB were among the big gainers in the Nifty index.  Infosys, Sun Pharma, Hero Honda, TCS, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, Ranbaxy, ITC, RIL and Wipro ended sharply lower today.

Infrastructure, power and capital goods stocks are likely to give fairly solid returns over the next 9 - 12 months.  One holding quality stocks in these sectors can stay invested and look at increasing exposure at sharp declines.  Fresh buying can be avoided for now.

One looking at long term can pick up IT majors at sharp dips.

On hopes global recession is easing, markets across Asia rallied higher today.  After a severe setback in early trade, Indian stocks displayed strength amid high volatility.  The Sensex looked set to breach the 15,000 mark this afternoon when it shot up to 14,930.54, gaining over 650 points, on some frenzied buying in capital goods, realty, bank and auto stocks.

However, due to heavy selling at higher levels and weakness exhibited by heavyweigt IT stocks and Reliance Industries, the baroemter has given up most of its gains and is up by just around 175 points now.

KS Oils has announced that it is set to receive Rs 450 crore of fresh Private Equity, GDR & Promoter Funding for development, expansion and acquisition of agri-assets in South-East Asia. 
One holding the stock (cmp Rs 53) with a long term view can stay invested with a stop loss near Rs 40. The stock has another major support at Rs 30 levels.  The stock will face some stiff resistance at Rs 58 and a strong breakout there can result in a surge to Rs 70 or even higher.

Tata Steel (Rs 333) can be retained with a stop loss at Rs 240 - 250 levels.  One with a good appetite for risk can try the stock around Rs 310 - 315 for short term.  But a stop loss is a must if one is going long around these levels.

Investors looking for solid gains over a medium to long term can stay invested in UCO Bank, Indian Bank, Syndicate Bank and Central Bank of India.  Fresh buying can be made at declines in a staggered manner.

The market is highly volatile today with stock prices swinging wildly.  Today's session has no place for retail investors or intra-day traders with low means of capital and a low risk appetite.

Anyone looking for fresh exposure would do well to think twice before taking a plunge.

Indian Bank has posted a net profit after minority interest of Rs 12551.50 million for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 10431.20 million for the year ended March 31, 2008.  Total Income has increased from Rs 62684.50 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 78791.90 million for the year ended March 31, 2009.  The stock, which had touched a low of Rs 63.75 in mid March 2009, is currently traded at Rs 130, up 7.6% over its previous closing price.

Jaiprakash Associates (Rs 171) is near a crucial resistance level.  A strong breakout at Rs 180 can take the stock to Rs 200 - 205, its next major resistance level. On the downside, a slide to Rs 135 can result in a further fall. Medium and long term investors can hold the stock with a stop loss near Rs 135.

12:35 PM: Exide Industries (cmp Rs 60.50) can drift lower in the near term.

One can consider buying this stock for long term at Rs 50 - 54 levels. A stop loss can be placed near Rs 43.

The stock is likely to move on to Rs 72 or even higher if it manages a decisive breakout at Rs 63.

Hopes of an economic revival and strong dollar buoyed up stocks on the Asian bourses today. Almost all the markets in the region posted sparkling gains. The Nikkei ended up by over 250 points or 2.78%. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and Korea all recorded thumping gains today.

European index futures have opened higher.

L&T has signed an MoU with GE Hitachi for ABWR & BWR Nuclear Power Plants in India.  GEH's ABWR technology is the world's only commercially proven Generation III advanced reactor design, with four units in operation and another four under construction.  This MoU with GEH is a major step forward for L&T in the manufacture and construction of Advanced Boiling Water Reactor components & systems.

Larsen & Toubro has zoomed 11.35% to Rs 1372 now A strong order book and hopes of rosier days on expectations of infrastructure sector getting a boost from the new government are driving the stock price up sharply.  The stock, it may be recalled, had tumbled to a 52-week low of Rs 556 in early March this year.

Long term investors can hold the stock with a stop loss around Rs 950.

The market is likely to remain highly listless today.  There may be some telling rallies but they may be followed by some sharp declines as investors will most certainly look to book some profits.  Though the indices shot up like never before in the previous session, barely a handful of investors would have seen their orders executed.

Extreme caution is the need of the hour.

The market opened higher this morning but has drifted down into the red subsequently with investors looking to book some profits after the incredible surge in the previous session.

The Sensex, which logged a whopping 2110 points gain yesterday, opened at 14,757.82 but is down with a sharp loss of 117.22 points or 0.82% at 14,166.99.

The Nifty is down 89.35 points or 2.07% at 4233.80. It had earlier surged to 4464.90 after opening at 4324.95.

Stocks to watch

* Grasim Industries, Indian Bank, Mercator Lines report financial results on Tuesday.

* Dr Reddy's Laboratories after the Indian drug maker reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 980 crore for the March quarter.

* KS Oils Ltd after the Economic Times cited an unnamed source as saying the edible oil maker is raising Rs 450 crore from investors including New Silk Route, Citigroup Venture Capital and Baring Private Equity Partners, through equity and convertible warrants.

* Bangalore-based real estate firm Sobha Developers after it posted a 52 per cent fall net profit for the year ended March.

* HT Media after the newspaper publisher posted a 44 per cent fall in net profit for the March quarter.