Thursday, April 23, 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis for 23 April 2009


BSE / NSE Shares analysis for 23 April 2009

Shrugging off a listless start, the market rallied sharply on strong global cues and some encouraging report cards from India Inc to end on a buoyant note today.

The Sensex vaulted to 11,203.28 during the fag end of the session and settled at 11,198.28 (provisional) with a thumping gain of 380.74 points or 3.52%.  The Nifty ended at 3437.50, up 107.20 points or 3.22%.

IT stocks were on song right through the session.  Realty and bank stocks bounced back after initial weakness and closed upbeat.  Metal, auto, capital goods, oil and power stocks also ended on a high note.  Select pharma, consumer durables and FMCG stocks attracted attention.

Wipro ended with a hefty gain of over 13%. Infosys and TCS also finished with big gains.  Tata Steel moved up by over 10%. Sterlite Industries and Hindalco also closed firm.  Grasim, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Infra, Tata Motors, L&T, M&M, DLF, JP Associates, RComm, SBI, RIL, ONGC and BHEL also signed off with handsome gains.

SAIL, Axis Bank, PNB, Reliance Capital, Power Grid, Ambuja Cements, Hero Honda and HCL Tech gained 3% - 8%.  RPL, Siemens, Cairn, Suzlon, Nalco, Cipla, Idea Cellular and GAIL India too closed on a firm note.

After remaining subdued for a long time, midcap and smallcap stocks rallied during the final hour.  The market breadth was fairly strong at close.

Reliance Power Limited has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 2489.038 million for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 946.689 million for the year ended March 31, 2008.  Other income has increased from Rs 1328.674 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 3347.160 million for the year ended March 31, 2009.

IT majors Wipro, TCS and Infosys may attract some profit taking after their impressive surge today.  Still, one willing to wait can stay invested in these stocks.  Sharp dips can be utilised to increase exposure. There may be a few weak spells in the next couple of weeks, but these stocks have some strong upside from their current levels.

RNRL has posted a net profit of Rs 698.702 million for the year ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 685.987 million for the year ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 3673.065 million for the year ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 4167.878 million for the year ended March 31, 2009.  The RNRL stock is up marginally at Rs 58.20 now. One holding the stock with a long term plan can stay invested with a stop loss near Rs 35.

Reliance Petroleum Limited has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 840 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. Total Income is Rs 37020 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.  The Company has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 840 million for the year ended March 31, 2009. Total Income is Rs 37020 million for the year ended March 31, 2009.

Intra-day traders can buy LIC Housing Finance (Rs 306) now for some sharp gains.  A stop loss can be placed near Rs 298.
Investors with a short to medium outlook can stay invested.

The Nifty (3385) has some good support around 3363.  Some sluggish movements around that level can result in a fall to 3345 then even down to 3330 levels.  On the upmove, the index will have to stay firm here and decisively breach 3400 to record further gains.

Ambuja Cements (Rs 81) can be retained for long term.  The stock is likely to give pretty good returns over the next 18 - 24 months.  One can increase exposure at declines from current levels.

Deepak Nitrate Limited will be going ahead with its promising Rs 225 crore Greenfield project at Dahej (Gujarat) to establish substantial additional capacities for chlorination, hydrogenation and nitration.  The company has already acquired 60 acres of land at Dahej. The location has proximity to sources of the necessary imputs for the project.

IMF stated yesterday that losses at financial institutions could approach $4.1 trillion worldwide  The fund has asked countries to take bolder action to bolster banks or risk an even deeper recession.  The bank feels more capital is needed to cushion against further losses.

12:10 PM: Inflation rose 0.26% for the week ended April 11, as against 0.18% in the previous week.

It was above a median forecast of 0.09 per cent. The annual inflation rate was 7.95 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

11:54 AM: Investors with a long term view can stay invested in L&T (cmp Rs 842) and pick up more in small quantities at declines.  The stock is not likely to see a sustained slide from here.  BHEL, BEL and Siemens also look good for long term.

Automobile stocks are having a good outing this morning.  One holding Hero Honda, M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki can stay invested for now with proper stop loss triggers.  Though some weak outings are not ruled out, a modest rise looks very much on the cards.

KEC International has bagged two new orders worth Rs 95 crore in the Southern Africa region.  The orders are for turnkey construction of 110 Kv S/C transmission line and substation in Mozambique and supply & installation of OPGW cable and accessories in Namibia.  The stock, currently traded at Rs 218, is a good one for long run. One can pick up the stock at declines.

Investors holding LIC Housing Finance can stay invested and pick up more of it at declines.  The stock, currently traded at Rs 304, can move up by 10 - 15% even in the near run.  

M&M Financial Services (up nearly 7% at Rs 225) has moved up on strong results.  The stock may see further upside in the near run. However, if the overall mood turns bearish, then a fall from current levels is likely.  One holding the stock with a medium or long term view, can stay invested. Others can sell at rallies and re-enter later at declines.

Trading got off to a listless start on the Indian bourses this morning amid mixed global cues.  The Sensex opened with a positive gap and rose to 10,885.41 but has slipped to 10825.54 (up 8 points) at present.  The Nifty moved on to 3353 in opening trade but is down marginally at 3329.40 now.

Sterlite, Wipro, RComm, DLF, M&M, Tata Motors, Infosys, TCS and Reliance Infra have posted sharp gains.  Ambuja Cements, RPower, Idea Cellular, Tata Comm, Suzlon, SAIL, Reliance Capital and Siemens are among the prominent gainers in the Nifty pack.

Market Outlook

Amid mixed global cues, the mood is likely to remain somewhat cautious on the Indian bourses today. Quarterly results will have a major say in the market's direction during the course of the session.

The market is likely to remain quite listless today with Reliance Industries, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Petroleum, Reliance Natural Resources and Reliance Power slated to announce their quarterly numbers.

Sector Watch

Information technology stocks are likely to remain in focus. Realty stocks may post gains but are likely to find it tough to hold at higher levels. Selective buying is seen in banking, metal and capital goods sectors.

Scrip Watch

Ambuja Cements Limited has posted a net profit of Rs 3340.50 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 3262.00 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 16968.20 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 18884.80 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

Yes Bank recorded a sharp jump in its net profit for the quarter ended 31 March 2009. The bank has posted a net profit of Rs 801.10 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 645.00 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 4943.00 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 6560.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

M&M Financial Services is likely to attract attention today. The financial services arm of Mahindra & Mahindra has posted a net profit of Rs 1080.437 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 753.930 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. The company's total income increased from Rs 3613.014 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 3976.894 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

GTL may struggle for support due to weak quarterly numbers. The company, according to reports, has earmarked Rs 4 billion capital expenditure for the next two financial years, expecting increased contracts from Indian companies. The company expects more contracts during this year from telecom companies, especially from BSNL.

Besides some Reliance group heavyweights, Bajaj Hindustan, HCL Infosys, HDFC Bank, Idea Cellular, LIC Housing Finance, Maharashtra Seamless and SKF India are among the other companies scheduled to announce their results today.

Macro and Market Factors

Cues from Wall Street are not positive with concerns over losses in the banking sector triggering some selling. Asian markets are trading mixed today.

The data on inflation will be eyed. The recent cut in Repo and Reverse Repo rates and hopes several commercial banks will reduce lending rates to spur growth may prevent the market from sliding down sharply.

Compiled and Brought to you by 

Equity Research Team

Intelligent Investor -
Invest Advisory Arm of

Ravina Consulting
Bangalore India

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