Friday, April 3, 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 02 April 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 02 April 2009


Sensex vaults 447 pts on strong global rally

The bulls stormed the ring thanks to strong global cues and stayed put right till the end to lift the market to a buoyant close today.  Stocks, with the exception of a select few from the FMCG space, had a nice ride up the charts.

The Sensex opened with a positive gap of over 200 points and ended at 10,348.83 (provisional) with a huge gain of 446.84 points or 4.51%.  The barometer vaulted to a high of 10,432.31 in intra-day trades.  The Nifty, which zoomed to 3228.75, closed at 3214.15 with a gain of 153.80 points or 5.03%.

Realty, metal, oil, capital goods, bank, power and information technology stocks ended with impressive gains. Auto, pharma, telecom, cement and infrastructure stocks too had a bright session today.

DLF, JP Associates and Tata Motors moved up by 12% - 15%.  RComm, ONGC, Wipro, Tata Steel, L&T, SBI, M&M, Tata Power, RIL, TCS, Sterlite, HDFC, Infosys, Reliance Infra, BHEL, Ranbaxy and Bharti Airtel also ended on a high note.  SAIL, Cairn, Suzlon, HCL Tech, Nalco, Reliance Capital, RPower, RPL, Axis Bank, PNB, Siemens, GAIL, ABB, Ambuja Cements, Idea Cellular and Cipla closed with strong gains.

Heavy buying was seen at several midcap and smallcap counters today.  The market breadth was pretty strong right through the session.

Areva (cmp Rs 213) is a good stock for long term.  Though a fall from current levels is not ruled out in the near run, the decline may not be a pronounced one.

HDIL (Rs 101) can move up sharply in the near to medium term.  One holding the stock can continue to stay invested.  Those looking to buy the stock can go in for it at Rs 87 - 90 levels.  Long term players can have a stop loss in place near Rs 65.

NTPC (Rs 184) can move on to Rs 200 or slightly higher.  It will face some strong resistance around Rs 205 where one can make an exit and book some profits.  One looking for fresh exposure can go in for it at Rs 170 - 175 levels.  Long term investors can continue to hold the stock with a stop loss near Rs 145.

Punj Lloyd, Praj Industries, Thermax and Areva are likely to give very good returns over a medium to long run.  Investors holding these stocks can stay invested with stop loss triggers near their recent lows.  One looking for fresh exposure in these stocks can buy at 10 - 15% down from their current levels.

The market has staged a splendid rally today on strong global cues.  However, one should not get carried away and turn adventurous now.  Those running in profits would do well to unload at least a part of their holdings.  Though the rally has been quite strong and sustained, a strong round of correction can not be ruled out at this stage.

Kalpataru Power Transmission (cmp Rs 345) can give decent returns over a short to medium run.  One holding the stock can stay invested with a stop loss near Rs 290.  The stock can rise to Rs 380 - 400 over the next 2 - 4 months.

Global markets have rallied sharply today.  The key indices of Japan, China and Singapore have posted very strong gains. European markets have opened on a firm note and US index futures too have moved up sharply.

The Indian bulls, taking cues, too are busy lapping up stocks today. If the current momentum is any indication, then the market is set to end the session on an extremely upbeat note today.

Investors looking at medium to long term can continue to hold ONGC.  The stock (cmp Rs 843) can rise to Rs 935 - 950 over the next few months. Long term investors can look at buying more of this stock at declines from current levels.

BEL has recorded a turnover of Rs 4618 crore for the year 2008-09 as against last year's turnover of Rs 4102.54 crore.
The estimated profit before tax is Rs 1095 crore as against last year's figure of Rs 1171.3 crore.  The company's order book is pretty strong with orders worth around Rs 10,000 crore.  One looking at long term can stay invested in BEL and look to buy more at declines. A staggered buying is advised.

The Wholesale price index rose 0.31 per cent in the 12 months to March 21, marginally above the previous week's annual rise of 0.27 per cent.  The rise was above a median forecast of 0.18 per cent. The annual inflation rate was 7.85 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The Nifty (3200) can move on to 3230 or even higher if it manages to decisively break a resistance around 3206.  On the downside, it can drop down to 3150 or if it slips to 3172 and remains subdued or weak for a while.

Reliance Industries has announced the commencement of gas production from KG block D6.  The company has also reported three discoveries off the East Coast of India, in the Bay of Bengal.  The RIL stock has gained over 4% at Rs 1644 and a further upmove is not ruled out in the near run. However, one would do well to have a proper stop loss in place.

Investors looking for some decent gains over a 3 - 6 month period can go in for fertilizer stocks.  Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Tata Chemicals, Chambal Fertilizers and RCF can be bought at current levels or slightly lower.  Though they may remain a bit sluggish or subdued in the very short run, a sharp upmove looks very likely over the next few months.  One can stay invested in UCO Bank, Andhra Bank and Indian Overseas Bank and look to buy more at declines.  Bank of India, BOB and PNB are also set to move up sharply in the near to medium run.  Among heavyweights, SBI looks good.

L&T has bagged orders worth Rs. 1143 crore from Tata Steel for its 3 MTPA expansion project.  L&T has been struggling in recent months but investors with a long term plan need not worry about its future prospects.  Sharp declines are excellent opportunities to increase exposure to the quality stock.

Trading got off to a flying start on the major Indian bourses this morning thanks to strong global cues.  The Sensex, which oopened with a positive gap of over 200 points at 10,107.25 and zoomed to 10,267.25. At 10,238.69, it is up with a whopping gain of 336.70 points or 3.4% at present.  The Nifty is up 3.46% or 106 points at 3166.35. It touched a high of 3172.25.

ICICI Bank, Reliance Infra, L&T, ONGC, HDFC, SBI, Wipro, RComm, TCS, DLF and Tata Steel have gained 4% - 7%