Monday, March 9, 2009

Indian Share Market Analysis -09-03-09

One looking at long term can continue to hold TCS and Infosys Technologies. More of these stocks can be picked up at declines from current levels. Wipro too can be bought in a staggered way. 

Tech Mahindra (Rs 261) is a good stock for short term. The stock is likely to move up by 10 - 20% in the short run. One can go long in the counter now or at slight declines.

Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd has been awarded a prestigious ontract at an estimated value of Rs 385 crore for laying of approximately 550 KMs of pipeline as Part A of Mundra-Bhathinda
Pipeline Project for transportation of crude oil from Mundra to Guru Govind Singh Refinery at Bhatinda. The stock, up 2.85% at Rs 234, can give good returns over a long run. However, in the near term, the stock is likely to see some weak spells.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 654) can move past Rs 700 over a short run. But before that, it may experience a few listless spells. One with a good appetite for risk can try this stock with a stop loss near Rs 610.

SBI, RComm and L&T have tumbled to new 52-week lows today. Due to weak sentiment, these stocks are likely to drift down further in the near run. Investors who can afford to hold stocks for a long run, can accumulate these stocks in a staggered way.

Cement stocks Ambuja Cements, Ultratech and ACC can give good returns over a long run. Sharp declines can be used to increase exposure to these stocks.

Oil stocks have tumbled following a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Shares of state run HPCL, IOC and BPCL have lost 6% - 7% today due to heavy selling. Investors with a long term view can look at buying these stocks at 20 - 30% down from current levels. The market is going to struggle for another 2 - 3 months, if not longer. The Sensex is all set to plunge below its October 2008 low and it will take it years to see those historic highs once again. Though investors will get some good opportunities to own blue chip stocks at attractive levels, the waiting period for good returns will certainly be quite longer this time.

Hold Sesa Goa (Rs 73) with a stop loss at Rs 60 - 62 levels. Though a sharp upmove looks unlikely, the stock's downside looks somewhat limited from here. Over a long run, one can get fairly good returns from the stock.

Apollo Tyres Ltd has lifted the lock-out it had declared at its manufacturing facility (taken on lease from PTL Enterprises Ltd) at Kalamassery, Kochi. The stock has moved up by around 2.25% to Rs 15.70 today.

Investors looking at long term can accumulate SBI at declines. The near term prospects for several bank stocks look a bit uncertain, but over a long run, most of these stocks are expected to give fairly strong returns to investors.

FMCG stock Marico (Rs 60) can be bought at declines. The stock is not likely to see a significant downside from here. On the upmove, a resistance is likely at Rs 70 - 72 and a strong breakout that level can result in a surge past Rs 85.

Cairn India (Rs 163) can be picked up now. Small quantities can be added at declines from here. The stock can move up sharply if crude oil prices trend north.

United Spirits (Rs 603) can see a decent upmove in the near run. One with a good appetite for risk can consider going long in the stock now. A stop loss can be placed at Rs 540 levels.
M&M (Rs 317) can be retained for long term with a stop loss near Rs 235. Investors with a fairly decent appetite for risk can take fresh exposure at the counter at declines.

Everonn Systems India Ltd has received Letter of Intent from West Bengal University of Technology for implementation of Everonn Learning through VSAT enabled classrooms in 147 colleges in West Bengal. As per the intent, a studio will be set up by Everonn at the West Bengal University campus from where the professors will take classes to students of the various colleges. The classes will be in a live and interactive mode. The Everonn stock is down with a sharp loss of 4% at Rs 91.30 now. The stock can see a further downside in the near run. One looking for fresh exposure can wait.

Diamond Cables Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company approved its foray into Alternative Energy Renewable source of energy which is a growing field and would become inevitable with the technological advancement in the country. The Company is logically expanding into this business being a EPC player in the village electrification space.

Canara Bank (Rs 148) looks good for long term. The stock, like so many others from the banking space, is expected to struggle in the near run, but its long term prospects remain fairly bright. Those
with a big aversion to risk can have a stop loss near Rs 137.

Andhra Bank (Rs 39.50) can be picked up for long term. One can increase exposure to the counter at declines. The stock has some support at Rs 34 and short term traders can have a stop loss there.
Federal Bank (Rs 122) is a good stock for long term. The stock has an immediate support near Rs 110 and one looking at short to medium run can place a stock loss there.

SAIL (Rs 73) can be picked up at declines for long term. The stock has strong support at Rs 55 - 60 levels and long term investors can place a stop loss there. The stock may face resistance at Rs 93 - 95.

GMR Infrastructure (Rs 69) can be bought by traders with a good appetite for risk. The stock can rise by around 10 - 15% from current levels over a short to medium run. Long term investors can have a stop loss at Rs 45.

One willing to wait long term can go in for Bharti Airtel and RComm at declines. Though these stocks may struggle a bit in the near run, their long term prospects look quite bright. A decent upmove is likely even over the next 6 - 9 months.

Investors looking at long term can continue to hold ITC (cmp Rs 158.70) and look to add more quantities at declines. The stock is likely to face resistance at Rs 175 - 180 where short and medium term investors can make an exit.

The Nifty (2586) is near a crucial intra-day support level now. A pronounced weakness now can result in a fall to 2565. The index will have to rebound to 2600 and trade firm for sometime to bounce back into the positive territory again.

Long term investors can continue to hold LIC Housing Finance (Rs 189). A stop loss can be placed near Rs 150. Though a sharp rise is likely in the very short run, the stock may face strong esistance and drift down a bit.

Nagarjuna Construction Company (Rs 38) can be retained with a stop loss near Rs 30. Though there may not be a significant upmove in the near run, the stock is expected to register a fairly decent move up north over the next 9 - 12 months.

Investors looking at short term can try RPL at current levels. The stock can give a return of 5 - 15% in the short run.

Glenmark Pharma (Rs 130) looks a bit weak on the charts. The stock may struggle to make a sharp upmove in the near run. It has some support at Rs 118 - 120. If it breaches that mark, then a fall to Rs 100 is likely.

Cadila Healthcare (Rs 245) can take some support at Rs 220 levels. A strong breach there can result in a fall to Rs 200 or further down to Rs 190. It will have to decisively cross Rs 270 to give a strong buy signal.

Tata Motors (Rs 137) can be tried for short term. The stock can rise to Rs 145 - 150. Investors with a good appetite for risk can continue to hold the stock past Rs 150 with a trailing stop loss.

NTPC (Rs 175) can be accumulated for long term in a staggered way. The stock has good support around Rs 150 and a stop loss can be placed there for now.

Traders looking at short term can try Zee Entertainment (cmp Rs 99) now or at slightly lower levels. For now, a stop loss can be placed near Rs 88. The stock can rise to Rs 105 - 107 and a breakout there can result in a surge to Rs 120.

The market is likely to remain rangebound for a better part of the session today due to lack of triggers. nvestors willing to wait 3 - 4 years for solid returns can go in for the likes of L&T, BHEL, Tata Steel and ONGC. There may be some strong rallies in the near to medium run, but most of them are unlikely to sustain for long.

Ranbaxy Laboratories has gained fianl approval from USFDA for Ramipril Capsules. The stock, currently traded at Rs 143.30 (up 1.45%), has been struggling a lot of late with the US drug regulator accusing the company of falsifying data while seeking approvals for the drugs manufactured at its Paonta Sahib facility.

The market has opened on a negative note this morning due to weak global sentiment. The Sensex, after opening with a negative gap of around 66 points at 8259.22, slipped to 8226.22. At 8243.46, the  Sensex is down by 82.36 points or 0.99% at present. The Nifty has lost 0.94% or 24.55 points at 2595.60.