Wednesday, March 25, 2009

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 25-03-09

BSE / NSE Shares analysis 25-03-09

The market shrugged off a listless start, suffered a setback in afternoon trade but rebounded sharply to end on a high note today.  Asian markets traded weak but short-covering ahead of March series derivatives expiry lifted stock prices up on the Indian bourses.  The Sensex ended at 9704.52 (provisional) near the day's high of 9706.47, with a big gain of 233.48 points or 2.47%.  The Nifty closed at 2994.05, up 55.35 points or 1.88%.

Realty stocks recorded strong gains, thanks largely due to short-covering.  Oil, metal, bank and capital goods stocks posted sharp gains.  Select power and IT stocks also closed on a firm note.  Auto, FMCG and pharma stocks remained quite subdued today.

JP Associates, Sterlite and DLF gained 7% - 9%.  Reliance Infra, Tata Power, RIL, RComm, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, BHEL, HDFC Bank, HDFC, L&T, Grasim and ACC also ended on a high note. M&M, ITC, SBI, Infosys and TCS too closed with notable gains.  Unitech vaulted more than 17%. PNB gained over 10%.  RPL, Suzlon, Reliance Capital, ABB, Idea Cellular, SAIL, Cairn India, GAIL India and Tata Comm also signed off on a firm note today.

After remaining subdued for long, midcap stocks rallied sharply in late afternoon trade.  The market breadth was marginally positive at close.

Investors looking for some short or medium term gains can go in for Welspun Gujarat.  The stock, currently traded around Rs 77, can move up by another 10 - 15% over the next couple of months.  On the downside, a fall to Rs 70 and a pronounced breach there can push it down to Rs 62 or even lower.

Ranbaxy Laboratories has announced that TGA-Australia has granged approval for its Ozidal Risperidone Tablets.  The pharma stock, which had tumbled to Rs 133.15 earlier this month on a series of allegations from the US drug regulator, has come a long way off that mark since then on renewed buying interest.  Though a fall from current levels is not ruled out, the stock may not see a sustained weakness from here. Long term investors can pick up this stock at declines.

One looking at long term, can pick up Punj Lloyd, Thermax and Praj Industries at current levels and add more quantities at sharp declines.  Alstom Projects, Areva and Reliance Industrial Infrastructure can also yield good returns over a medium to long run.

Ambuja Cements (Rs 70) can be bought at declines for long term.  Though a fall from current levels is not ruled out, the stock is likely to bounce back swiftly.  India Cements, ACC and Ultratech Cement are also poised to test sharply higher levels in the medium to long run.

Dishman Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals has announced that Dishman Pharma it has signed a cooperation and joint API agreement with Polpharma, of Poland.  Polpharma is a strong player in its home market and a leader in the Central and Eastern European markets and CIS countries with a turnover of ca 400 million US dollars. Both Companies feel that this partnership will benefit mutually and pave the way for a stronger growth in coming years.  At Rs 96, Dishman Pharma does look an attractive option for long term.

Tata Steel (Rs 190) can drift down from current levels.  Investors with a long term plan can continue to hold the stock and consider buying more of it at declines.  SAIL, Sterlite Industries and JSW Steel can also be bought at declines in a staggered way.

Asian markets trade weak today. The Wall Street had ended on a negative note yesterday.  With global cues not encouraging, investors remain reluctant to pick up stocks. The market rallied earlier in the day due largely to short-covering ahead of March series derivatives expiry.  A smooth rollover of F&O contracts may result in some fresh buying later this week. The major trigger for the market will emerge early next month when India Inc will start announcing quarterly numbers.

Crompton Greaves (Rs 104) has taken a beating today.  Investors with a reasonably good appetite for risk can go in for the stock at current levels or slight declines.  The board of directors of the company has approved the buy back of fully paid Equity Shares of Rs 2/- each, from the open market through the Stock Exchanges, at a price not exceeding Rs 170/- per share, upto an amount of Rs 224.15 crore, being 25% of the total Paid-Up Capital plus Free Reserves as per the audited Balance Sheet of the Company for the year ended March 31, 2008.

Reliance Industries (Rs 1510) can be retained if one is looking at long term.  The stock can drift lower in the near run. The stock has good support at Rs 1350 and Rs 1150.

Bongaigon Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited has been merged with Indian Oil Corporation effective March 25, 2009.
Shareholders of Bongaigon Refinery will receive 4 shares of Indian Oil Corporation for every 37 shares they hold in Bongaigaon Refinery. The record date for the swap will be announced in due course.  Bongaigon Refinery is traded around Rs 42 now. IOC shares are quoted at Rs 397 at present.

Reliance Capital (Rs 354) can be retained for long term with a stop loss at Rs 270.  Investors can buy more of this stock in small quantities at sharp declines from current levels.  Though the near term looks a bit sluggish for the stock, a modest upmove is not ruled out.

EPIC Energy has received an order for 100 kVA from Konkan Railway Corporation Ltd for its Power Savers. These Power Savers are to be installed at seven different locations.  The thinly traded Epic Energy stock is up 1.85% at Rs 25. Investors with a decent appetite for risk can go in for the stock at current levels. The downside looks somewhat limited for the stock.

The market has bounced back sharply after some weakness in early trade.  Ahead of derivatives expiry, it is likely to remain quite volatile. Some front line stocks may move up quite sharply on short-covering.  Investors with a little or no appetite for risk would do well to restrict exposure to affordable levels.

One looking at long term can pick up HDFC Bank (Rs 954) at every sharp decline. There may be some weakness in the near run, but the private sector bank stock is likely to give strong returns over a medium to long term.  Long term investors can have a stop loss in place near Rs 770.  Among other stocks from the banking space, IOB, Indian Bank, Canara Bank, BOI and BOB look good. SBI and PNB can give fairly decent returns over a short run.

Bharti Airtel Ltd has informed BSE that Standard & Poor's rating Services has affirmed its 'BBB-' rating on the company which reflects Company's long-term corporate creditworthiness & stable outlook.  Bharti Airtel (cmp Rs 596) can see a few weak spells in the near term. But long term investors can continue to hold the stock and look to increase exposure at declines. For now, a stop loss can be placed near Rs 485.