Friday, March 20, 2009

BSE NSE Share Market Analysis 20-03-09


BSE NSE Share Market Analysis 20-03-09

The market opened weak on negative global cues and thanks to a spirited rally in late afternoon trade, wiped off its losses and ended flat today.  The Sensex ended at 8973.10 (provisional) with a loss of 28.65 points or 0.32%.

In intra-day trades, the Sensex touched a high of 8999.98 and a low of 8867.13.  The Nifty closed at 2809.05, up 1.90 points. In intra-day trades today, the Nifty touched a high of 2816.10 and a low of 2773.65.

Realty, capital goods, bank and auto stocks declined sharply.  Metal stocks ruled firm today. Select FMCG, IT and oil stocks edged up. Buying was stock specific in midcap and smallcap segments.  

Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, L&T, Siemens, PNB, Maruti, BHEL, SBI, Reliance Capital and DLF ended with sharp losses.
Hindalco, Zee, ONGC, Tata Comm, SAIL, Ambuja Cements, Idea, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel and M&M ended on a firm note.
The market breadth was almost neutral at close.

Investors with a long term plan can continue to hold IT majors Infosys, TCS and Wipro.  Declines can be used to increase exposure in a staggered manner.  HCL Tech, Oracle and MindTree can also give fairly good returns over a long run.  Tech Mahindra is reported to have secured a line of credit for Rs 1,500 crore from five banks to back its expression of interest (EoI) for Satyam Computer Services.  The company, according to reports in a section of the media, may tie up with a private equity player to make a final bid.  Tech Mahindra, L&T, IGate Global, Spice and IBM are among the strong contenders for the 51 per cent controlling stake in Satyam Computer Services Limited.

Tulsi Extrusions has bagged an order worth Rs 15 crore from Tapi Prestressed Products Ltd., Jalgaon for supply of various sizes of high diameter PVC Pipes for 374.908 kms.  The Company expects to have benefit from the order which is backed by bank guarantee. Amid ongoing global rescission in the market and tough competition, the company is determined to reach its revenue targets.

Punj Lloyd (Rs 80) can move on to Rs 90 - 95 where it is likely to face some strong resistance.  Investors with a short term view can exit there and re-enter later at declines.  Long term players can hold the stock with a stop loss at Rs 65.

Metal stocks Tata Steel, SAIL and Sterlite Industries can give decent returns over the next 3 - 6 months.  One with a good appetite for risk can go in for these stocks even at current levels.  Others can take a call on buying these stocks at slightly lower levels.

Cement stocks Ambuja Cements, ACC, Ultratech and India Cements too look poised for a good move up north in the near term.

Despite governments and central banks across the globe taking steps and announcing measures to rev up the economy, there are no significant signs of a recovery as yet.  The market has been staging a few rallies here and there but a sustained recovery continues to remain elusive.

Investors willing to wait a couple of years for good returns can continue to hold blue chips that have a good track record. Investors with a low appetite for risk would do well to exit counters at rallies and take a call on buying back at declines.

Jubilant Organosys (Rs 91.85) can move up a bit in the near term.  Long term investors can hold the stock with a stop loss near Rs 75 - 80 for now.  The company recently signed an agreement with France based Guerbet to distribute its nuclear medicine products in Europe.

Tata Motors (Rs 169) can move on to Rs 177 - 180 in the near run. The stock is likely to face some resistance there and short-term traders can make an exit.  One looking at long term can buy the stock at declines.  Maruti Suzuki, Hero Honda and Ashok Leyland are also likely to give decent returns over a short to medium run.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) has informed BSE that the tentative financial performance for the financial year immediately after its closure.  A press conference in this regard will be held on April 02, 2009 to be addressed by Chairman & Managing Director of the Company to declare the flash results for the year 2008-09.

Investors looking for smart gains over a 6 - 9 month period can go in for sugar stocks Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini, Triveni Engineering, Oudh Sugars and Thiru Arooran.  There may be some falls in the near run and one can use them to add more of these stocks.

ONGC (Rs 735) is a good stock for long term. The stock is likely to remain a bit sluggish at times and can even see some very sharp declines. But its long-term prospects remain fairly bright.  One can pick up more of this stock in a staggered way. Long-term investors can have a stop loss in place near Rs 535.

Investors looking for some decent gains in the short run can try NTPC (Rs 177) around its current levels.  A rise of 5 - 10% over a very short run looks likely. One can exit with some profits at Rs 185 or so and re-enter later at declines. Long-term investors can hold the stock with a stop loss near Rs 145.  Areva, NLC and Power Grid can also be bought for long term.