Thursday, March 19, 2009

BSE, NSE Share Market Analysis 19-03-09

BSE / NSE Share Market analysis 19-03-09

The market opened on a firm note on strong global cues this morning but failed to sustain at higher levels due to profit taking.  After a choppy ride, the Sensex ended at 9001.75 (provisional) with a marginal gain of 25.07 points today.  The Nifty closed at 2804.10, up 0.34% or 9.40 points. In intra-day trades, the Sensex and Nifty rose to 9086.77 and 2822.25 respectively.

Realty and IT stocks traded firm right through the session.  FMCG, capital goods, auto and power stocks turned subdued after a positive display.  A fair amount of buying was seen in midcap and smallcap segments. Sterlite, HDFC, Sun Pharma, Maruti, TCS, NTPC, Infosys, JP Associates, DLF, RIL and ONGC ended with sharp gains.  L&T, BHEL, Tata Motors, RComm, M&M, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and HUL declined sharply.  Ambuja Cements, Unitech, HCL Tech and Tata Comm moved up sharply.  Nalco, Zee Entertainment and GAIL India posted sharp losses.

The market breadth was positive at close.

Investors or traders looking for short term gains can try Infosys Technologies (Rs 1295) now.  A return of 3% - 5% looks likely over the next couple of sessions.  Long term investors can continue to hold the stock and consider buying more at declines from current levels.

Investors looking at medium to long term can stay invested in IVRCL Infrastructure and look to buy more of the stock at declines.  The stock, currently traded at Rs 114, has support near Rs 105.  A breach there can result in a fall to Rs 65 - 70. Long term investors can hold the stock with a stop loss at these levels.  GMR Infra and Simplex Infrastructure can also be considered for long term.

ITC (Rs 170) can be picked up in small quantities at declines. Though there may not be a significant upmove in the very near term, investors can look forward to some strong gains from the stock over a 2 - 3 year period.  HUL, Marico, Dabur India and Nestle can also be bought at declines for long term.

 The Board of Directors of Apollo Tyres Limited approved a proposal for buy-back of equity shares of the Company today.  The company has announced that the maximum amount of buy-back shall be for an amount not exceeding Rs 1220 million constituting around 10% of the paid-up capital and free reserves of the Company as on March 31, 2008. The minimum number of shares for buy-back will be 6.7 million equity shares and the maximum buy-backprice shall be Rs 25 per equity share.  The company will buy-back its shares from the open market through Stock Exchange Method using electronic trading facilities of BSE & NSE.  The stock is traded around Rs 18 at present.

Areva T&D India has bagged Ultra High Voltage Power Transformers Order for Anpara 'C' power plant.  The order, valued at more than Euro 33 million, includes supply of 765 KV Generator Transformers, Shunt Reactors and 765 KV to 400 KV Interconnecting Transformers for the switchyard associated with the 1200 MW Anpara-C Thermal Power Plant.

Educomp Solutions (Rs 1895) is not a stock for investors with a very low appetite for risks.  The stock can see some sharp rallies once in a while, but some equally sharp or at time sharper falls are also very likely.  One looking at long term can consider buying this stock at Rs 1500 levels.
  
Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 168) is poised to test higher levels in the short to medium run.  One can take some exposure in the stock at Rs 150 - 155 levels.  Cipla, Wockhardt, Glenmark and Dr Reddy's Laboratories are among the other good picks for long term from healthcare space.

Investors can hold Hindalco (Rs 43.75) for long term.  Those who are not willing to wait for 2 - 3 years, can sell the stock at rallies and re-enter at declines.  For now, a stop loss can be placed near Rs 37. Long term buyers can accumulate the stock in a staggered way.

Inflation is at an all-time low of 0.44% now. The previous low was of 1.13 per cent on Feb 2, 2002.  According to the release from the government, inflation rose 0.44% for the week ended March 7, 2009, against a rise of 2.43% in the previous week.  The annual inflation rate was 7.78 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

KEC International Limited has bagged orders worth Rs 291 crore from Power Grid Corporation of India Limited. KEC International is a global leader in the power transmission engineering, procurement and construction business.  
The KEC International stock, which had slipped to a 52-week low of Rs 108.65 in December 2008, has rallied sharply since then and is traded around Rs 142 at present. The stock had touched a high of Rs 689 in April 2008.  Investors looking at long term can continue to hold the stock with a stop loss near its 52-week low.

Zee Entertainment (Rs 96.50) can be bought at declines for decent gains over a short to medium term.  For now, one can hold the stock with a stop loss near Rs 88.  Though a significant downside looks unlikely, some weakness is not ruled out in the very short run.

Investors looking at long term can go in for quality stocks from IT, banking, power and capital goods sectors at current levels or slightly lower.  Those looking for gains over a short run have to be extremely choosy as the market may find it a bit difficult to sustain at higher levels.

One can try low priced bank, power and metal stocks for some solid gains over a short to medium run.  Still, taking fresh exposure or holding on to one's positions in not so liquid stocks without proper stop loss triggers in place is not at all advisable.

One looking for some intra-day gains can try India Bulls Real Estate now.  The stock, traded at Rs 96 at present, can move on to Rs 100.  Investors with a low appetite for risk can exit the counter there. Others can hold it for short term with a stop loss near Rs 90.

Tata Teleservices (Rs 22.90) can be retained for long term.  The stock may not move up sharply in a flash. But then, it is likely to make a steady progress up north and give fairly strong returns over a medium to long term.  One can consider buying more of this stock at declines. The stock has some support near Rs 19. Long term investors can have a stop loss near Rs 13 for now.

Realty stocks are in demand once again.  Though demand for new homes has not picked up any significantly, investors appear to be betting on some better times for the realty industry in the intermediate term.  Akruti City, HDIL, Omaxe, India Bulls Real Estate, Ansal, Mahindra Lifespace and heavyweights DLF and Unitech have risen sharply and a further upmove looks likely in the near run.  Still, one would do well to have proper stop loss triggers in place while going in for fresh exposure in these stocks.

The market opened on a firm note this morning thanks to positive global cues.  The Sensex opened at 9023.04, up nearly 50 points, and rose to 9086.77. At 9077.80, it is up with a sharp gain of 101.12 points or 1.13% at present.

The Nifty is up 0.76% or 21.35 points at 2816.05. It touched a high of 2821.35 in opening trade.  ICICI Bank, Sterlite, Zee, Suzlon, Siemens, Cairn, Reliance Infra, DLF, Reliance Capital have gained 2% - 3.5%.  RIL, Infosys and HDFC have also posted sharp gains in early trade.