Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Market analysis for 23-02-09

3:10 PM: Ambuja Cements (Rs 69) looks good as a long term bet.

The stock may have some weak spells in the near run. Once demand for new homes pick up and infrastructure development gets back on the rails, then one can see some sharp rallies in the cement space.

2:31 PM: Alstom Projects (Rs 318) can find resistance at this level. If it manages to trade firm for a few sessions, then a rise to Rs 400 is likely.

On the downside, the stock has support at Rs 260 and then at Rs 230 levels.

2:22 PM: DLF (Rs 153) can weaken to Rs 140 in the near run.  Due to short-covering, the stock may move up a bit over the next couple of sessions, but a sustained upmove looks quite unlikely for now.

2:16 PM: Hindalco (Rs 38.90) is all set to breach a crucial support at Rs 38.  The stock, if it does so, can drift down to Rs 33 or even lower.  For now, fresh buying can be avoided at the counter.

2:00 PM: Investors willing to wait long term can go in for NTPC at 5 - 10% down from its current levels.  The stock is traded around Rs 178 at present. It had touched a low of Rs 113 last October.

1:54 PM: Sugar stocks Triveni Engineering and Balrampur Chini can move up sharply and give good returns over a short run.  Sharp declines can be used as opportunities to increase exposure.  Bajaj Hindustan (Rs 45) can be tried at Rs 40 - 42 levels.

1:48 PM: Stay invested in GTL Infrastructure (Rs 31) with a stop loss near Rs 27.  The stock can give decent returns over a 6 - 9 month period.  Fresh buying can be restricted to modest levels.

1:40 PM: Wipro (Rs 213) can be retained with a stop loss at Rs 180.  The stock can drift down in the near term but its long term prospects appear quite bright.

Oracle Financial Services, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech can be bought at sharp declines from current levels.

1:30 PM: Reliance Communications (Rs 156) can give good returns over a long run.  The stock is near October 2008 low of Rs 148.60 and is very likely to drift below that mark.  One can use sharp dips to increase exposure.

1:20 PM: Power stocks NTPC, Areva, Alstom, NLC and Power Grid can be retained for long term.  However, since the market is likely to see some big sell-offs in the near run, fresh buying can be avoided as far as possible.

1:12 PM: Tata Motors (Rs 133.40) can be bought at declines.  One can accumulate this stock in a staggered way with a long term view.

1:06 PM: Investors with a long term view can continue to hold Aurobindo Pharma (cmp Rs 145).  For now, a stop loss can be placed at Rs 120.  A modest upmove is likely even over a short run.

12:58 PM: Praj Industries (Rs 52) can be retained with a stop loss at Rs 47.  The stock can give fairly good returns over a medium run.  Thermax, Alstom Projects and Punj Lloyd are among the other good stocks for long term from the capital goods space. 

12:50 PM: ABB (Rs 387) can be picked up at declines.  The stock had hit a low of Rs 365.20 recently and a fall to that level looks very likely in the near run.

12:43 PM: SBI (Rs 1033) can move on to Rs 1045 or even higher if current momentum at the counter sustains for a while.  The stock has support at Rs 1020 and weakness around that level can result in a fall to Rs 1010 or further down.

12:37 PM: Nagaruna Construction Company (Rs 43) can drift down to Rs 40 if it continues to trade weak for a couple of sessions.  Those looking at long term can continue to hold the stock and look at buying more at sharp declines.

12:30 PM: Educomp Solutions (Rs 1613) can weaken further.  Fresh buying in the stock can be avoided for now. Those holding the stock can lighten commitments at rallies.

12:23 PM: One looking at long term can accumulate PSU bank stocks in a staggered way.  Andhra Bank, UCO Bank, syndicate Bank and Vijaya Bank are among the good low priced bank stocks.  Among the big ones, SBI and PNB look good.

12:14 PM: Some short-covering is expected ahead of February series derivatives expiry.  The rallies can be used to lighten commitments to an extent. One should refrain from building up big positions as the condition is still not conducive for a sustained upmove.

12:08 PM: JSW Steel (Rs 188) can drift down to Rs 170, a new 52- week low. On the upmove, the stock is likely to face resistance at Rs 200 and then around Rs 230. A strong breakout at Rs 230 can result in a rise to Rs 290 or even higher. 

12:00 PM: Oracle Financial Services (Rs 684) can give good returns over a 9 - 12 month span. Investors long at the counter can continue to hold the stock. Fresh buying can be considered at 5 - 10% down from current levels. 

11:52 AM: Maruti Suzuki (Rs 630) can be retained for long term.Exposure to the stock can be increased at declines. Hero Honda, Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto can also be bought at sharp declines from current levels.

11:45 AM: Traders with a good appetite for risk can go in for Satyam Computer Services for some short term gains.

The stock, currently traded at Rs 44.50, can move on to Rs 55 - 58.

11:32 AM: The Nifty (2702) has recovered some lost ground in mid morning trade.  The index now has some good support at 2675. Weakness there can result in a fall to 2660 or 2650. On the upmove, it can rise to 2725 where some resistance is seen. 

11:26 AM: Investors looking at long term can continue to hold RNRL (Rs 42). More quantities can be bought at sharp declines from here. For now, a stop loss can be placed at Rs 36. 

11:19 AM: Cairn India (Rs 154) can move up sharply this afternoon.  One willing to take chances can go in for the stock now. A stop loss can be placed near Rs 150. 

11:06 AM: Vijaya Bank, UCO Bank, Syndicate Bank and Andhra Bank may not see a significant downside from here.

Investors with a long term view can pick up these stocks at current levels or slightly lower for some solid returns over the next 12 - 18 months.

10:59 AM: Tata Teleservices (Rs 23) can be retained for now with a stop loss near Rs 19. Fresh buying can be avoided for the time being.

10:54 AM: One can stay invested in KEC International (Rs 138) with a stop loss around Rs 110.

Though the stock may not move up significantly in the near run, its long term prospects remain fairly bright.

10:48 AM: With global economy in a deep recession, the market will continue to struggle in the near run. The Sensex (8657) may re-test its October 2008 low of 7697.39 before showing some signs of a recovery.  It is advisable to keep exposure to the market at affordable levels. Being selective with regard to fresh exposure will help one in the long run.

10:41 AM: HCL Technologies (Rs 102) has hit a new low of Rs 100.10 today.  Investors with a long term plan can continue to hold the stock and look at buying more at declines from here. Though the stock may find the going tough in the near run, its long term prospects remain quite bright.

10:35 AM: Some leading analysts and brokerage houses expect Pantaloon Retail to outperform the market.  The stock has taken a beating this morning, losing more than 7% at Rs 134. Investors with a medium to long term plan can pick up the stock at Rs 110 - 115 levels.

10:28 AM: Shriram EPC has been awarded an order worth Rs 70 crore for wind turbines from Cape Energy Private Limited, an associate of Bergurruen Holdings, a PE funded company with infrastructure and real estate development in India.  The thinly traded stock, is down 1.65% at Rs 90 now. It had touched a low of Rs 85 late last month.

10:18 AM: Power Grid Corporation (Rs 87) can be retained for long term with a stop loss near Rs 52.One can look at buying more of this stock at sharp declines from here.

10:12 AM: Bank and realty stocks are among the worst hit in the sell-off this morning. Mirroring their fall, the Bankex and Realty have lost around 3.3% now.  Though some modest buying is likely at lower levels, it is going to be a slippery ride for several bank stocks in the very short run. 

Realty stocks may take longer time to bounce back into the reckoning. Still, not many from this space are expected to regain even 20 - 25% of what they have lost from their historic highs. 

9:58 AM: The market has opened on a negative note this morning due to weak global cues. 

The Sensex, after opening at 8707.35, around 135 points down, has slipped to 8670.54 now, netting a loss of 172.46 points or 1.95%.

The Nifty has lost 45.30 points or 1.66% at 2691.15.

DLF, ICICI Bank, RIL, HDFC, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Infra, HDFC Bank, Sterlite, SAIL, ABB, M&M and Tata Steel have declined sharply