Thursday, February 19, 2009

Market Analysis 19-02-09

3.40 PM: The market opened well this morning but declined gradually and slipped into the red around noon due to lack of triggers.

There were a few decent rallies in afternoon trade but due to a highly cautious undertone, the market failed to sustain at higher levels.

The Sensex ended at 9043.56 (provisional) with a gain of 28.38 points or 0.31%.

It touched a high of 9111.95 and a low of 8977.66 in intra-day trades.

The Nifty closed at 2793.35, up 17.20 points.

IT stocks rallied as rupee declined agains the US dollar.

Select auto, consumer durables, PSU and power stocks surged higher.

Realty, bank and capital goods stocks lost their way after a firm start.

FMCG, oil and pharma stocks remained subdued.

After staying firm for well over a couple of hours, midcap and smallcap stocks turned easy due to lack of support.

Wipro, Infosys, Grasim, Maruti, Reliance Infra, HDFC, M&M, Ranbaxy, TCS and ONGC ended with sharp gains.

Hindalco, ACC, ICICI Bank, L&T, DLF, SBI, HUL and BHEL declined.

Siemens, Idea Cellular, Nalco, PNB, Suzlon, Zee and Tata Comm moved up sharply.

ABB, RPL, Unitech and SAIL ended weak.

The market breadth was negative today.

3:26 PM: The market is likely to see a further downside in the near term.

October 2008 lows may be breached soon. Investors not willing to take chances, would do well to have strict stop loss triggers in place.

3:18 PM: Consolidated Construction Consortium (Rs 127) can edge higher in the near run.

But the stock is not an actively traded one. Hence, investors looking for some exposure here would do well to restrict their buying to very very modest levels.

3:07 PM: The rupee's fall against the dollar has triggered some buying in the IT space this afternoon.

Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Tech Mahindra, Patni, Mphasis and HCL Tech have moved higher now.

Long term investors can continue to hold these stocks and buy more at declines from current levels.

3:00 PM: Investors with a long term plan can continue to hold Areva (Rs 186) with a stop loss at Rs 130 - 135 levels.

Alstom Projects and Power Grid can also be retained for long term.

2:49 PM: Short term investors can try Shree Renuka Sugars (cmp Rs 88.50).

The stock can move on to Rs 98 - 100 in the short run.

The stock has support at Rs 78 and a stop loss can be placed near that level.

2:41 PM: Crompton Greaves (Rs 127) is not likely to see a sharp fall from here.

The stock has support at Rs 105 and one can have a stop loss there and hold the stock for long term.

2:33 PM: Tulip Telecom Ltd has informed BSE that the Company, till date, has repurchased the FCCBs aggregating to US$ 30.50 million.

Investors with a good appetite for risk can try the stock (cmp Rs 331) at Rs 300 levels for long term.

2:26 PM: Punj Lloyd (Rs 86) can be retained for long term.

Though the stock is likely to find the going quite sluggish in the near run, its long term prospects remain bright.

The stock can move on to Rs 105 in the near run where short term traders can book some profits.

2:20 PM: ND TV (Rs 82), Sun TV Network (Rs 170), Zee Entertainment (Rs 115) can be picked up at declines.

These stocks can move up fairly sharply over the next couple of months.

2:13 PM: The market is expecting a rate cut.

If the Apex bank announces another round of rate cuts, then a strong relief rally is likely. Still, the market is likely to find it tough to hold at higher levels as global economy continues to be in a very bad shape.

2:06 PM: Rain Commodities (Rs 62) can be tried for long term if it drops down to Rs 50 - 52.

Though the stock may not move up any significantly in the near run, a decent rise appears likely over a 12 - 18 month period.

2:00 PM: Sun Pharma (Rs 1037) can be picked up around current levels or at slight declines.

The stock can move past Rs 1300 over a long run. For now, a stop loss can be placed near Rs 980.

1:52 PM: Investors looking at medium term can hold Balrampur Chini and Bajaj Hindustan.

Fresh exposure can be considered at declines.

1.40 PM: GVK Power (Rs 20) can be retained for now with a stop loss near Rs 16.

A modest surge is likely over a short run. Long-term investors can book some profits at rallies and re-enter later at lower levels.

1:30 PM: ABG Shipyard (up 5% at Rs 85.50) can move up sharply over a short to medium run.

There are expectations that the government will come out with a subsidy scheme for shipbuilding companies.

A modest exposure can be taken at current levels. More can be bought at declines.

1:20 PM: Bharti Airtel (Rs 641) can exhibit some weakness in the near term.

One can use declines to increase exposure to the stocks. Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular can also be accumulated in a staggered fashion at declines.

1:12 PM: DLF (Rs 158) can rise to Rs 163 - 165 if recovery gathers some momentum.

The stock has support at Rs 155. A strong breakout at Rs 165 can take the stock to around Rs 171 - 173 this afternoon

1:07 PM: Tech Mahindra (Rs 251) can be retained with a stop loss around Rs 200.

The stock can rise to Rs 298 over a medium term and a strong breakout there can result in a surge to Rs 350 or even higher.

12:53 PM: Power stocks NLC, Torrent Power, CESC and NTPC can be bought at declines.

These stocks can give very good returns over a long run. Over a near run, however, the stocks may remain a bit slippery.

12:45 PM: The Sensex has slipped into the negative territory now due to heavy selling in L&T, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and BHEL.

Infosys, RComm, SBI and Bharti Airtel have also declined from their higher levels.

At 9004, the Sensex is down by 11 points at present. The Nifty is flat at 2776.40

12:37 PM: Reliance Industries (Rs 1285) has turned weak this afternoon.

It has to bounce back to Rs 1302 and trade firm to move up sharply into the positive territory.

12:30 PM: Maruti Suzuki (Rs 627) can give very good returns over a long run.

Investors with a long term view can look at buying more of this stock at declines from current levels.

Long term players can have a stop loss in place near Rs 450.

12:16 PM: Suzlon Energy can be tried if one is looking at long term.

The stock is likely to remain quite slippery in the near run, but a modest rise looks likely over a 6 - 12 month period. One can sell a part of holdings then and re-enter later at declines.

12:10 PM: Cairn India (Rs 150) can decline sharply this afternoon if it continues to trade weak for some more time.

One can sell the stock with a stop loss at Rs 154 for some intra-day gains.

12:03 PM: Inflation rose 3.92% in the week ended February 7, 2009 as compared to a 4.39% rie in the previous week.

There are expectations that the Apex bank will reduce key bank rates further thanks to falling inflation.

11:56 AM: SREI Infrastructure can be retained for long term.

One can pick up this stock at declines and hold with a stop loss near Rs 28.

11:47 AM: REI Agro (Rs 52) can drift down to Rs 48 or even lower in the near run.

One can look at buying the stock around Rs 43 - 45 for long term.

11:40 AM: Metal stocks are likely to struggle in the near run due to falling metal prices.

Still, investors looking at long term can consider buying the likes of Tata Steel, SAIL, Hindalco, Nalco, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel at sharp declines.

11:26 AM: The Nifty (2795) can rise to 2930 or further up if edges up to 2802 and trades firm for sometime.

On the downside, the index has support at 2785 and weakness around that level can result in a fall to 2760.

11:20 AM: IDFC (Rs 55) has support at Rs 50.

A pronounced weakness there can result in a fall to Rs 45 or even lower.

The stock can rise to Rs 72 or even higher if it manages to break a resistance at Rs 61.

11:13 AM: HDIL (Rs 81%) and Omaxe (Rs 45) can be tried for short term with strict stop losses.

These stocks can given a return of 10 - 15% over a short run.

11:06 AM: Gayatri Projects Ltd has secured two new orders with a total projects cost of Rs 2,131.62 crore. The entire works has to be executed with in a period of 54 months.

The stock, up 9.4% at Rs 74, can see a further move up north in the near run.

10:58 AM: One can stay invested in Infosys Technologies (Rs 1176) with a stop loss near Rs 1050.

The stock can struggle a bit in the near term, but its long term prospects continue to remain quite bright.

10:50 AM: Divi's Laboratories (Rs 840) can drift down to Rs 825 if the current selling momentum at the counter sustains for a while.

The stock can bounce back sharply if it recovers to Rs 850 and displays some strength there.

10:43 AM: Investors looking at long term can hold LIC Housing Finance (Rs 203) with a stop loss near Rs 160.

One can buy more of this stock at sharp declines from current levels.

10:37 AM: Bharat Earth Movers (BEML) can be picked up at declines for long term.

The stock, currently traded around Rs 373, has good support near Rs 280.

One can have a stop loss there. A modest rise is likely even over a short run.

10:30 AM: Tata Steel (Rs 174) can weaken a bit in the near run.

The stock has support at Rs 150 and Rs 135 levels. Investors with a long term view can hold the stock with a stop loss at one of these levels.

10:20 AM: Investors looking at medium term can try OBC, IOB, UCO Bank and Syndicate Bank from the banking space.

These stocks are expected to give fairly strong returns over a 3 - 6 month period.

10:13 AM: With the RBI governor hinting at the possibility of another rate cut, realty stocks have edged up this morning.

HDIL, Unitech, DLF, Orbit Corporation and Omaxe have moved up sharply. Though some more upside is possible in the near run, it is advisable to stay light on these stocks for now.

10:07 AM: The market has opened on a positive note this morning.

The Sensex has gained 84.03 points at 9099.21 now.

The Nifty has gained 25.35 points at 2801.50.

Realty, bank, capital goods and metal stocks have posted sharp gains.

M&M, HDFC, Tata Steel, DLF, ICICI Bank and SBI are among the prominent gainers.

HUL, Wipro, ITC and NTPC trade weak.